<p>比特幣有望在歷史上創下第二差的第四季度表現。截至 2025 年第四季度，比特幣已下跌 22.8%，在 85,000 美元以上的損失鞏固了聖誕節的憂鬱情緒。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>事實上，在更廣泛的資產類別中，黃金錶現最佳，年漲幅為 69%，而比特幣表現最差，損失 5%。</p>
<p>這引出了一個問題：比特幣 [BTC] 在年末會如何發展？</p>
<h2>聖誕節後比特幣可能反彈？</h2>
<p>根據加密交易平台 QCP 的分析，聖誕假期的流動性稀薄以及 12 月 26 日的大規模期權到期將引發波動。但 QCP 分析師略顯樂觀，並補充道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“隨着 85,000 美元的看跌期權未平倉合約減少，空頭頭寸有所緩解，而 100,000 美元的看漲期權仍然存在，指向謹慎的聖誕反彈樂觀情緒。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>該公司還強調，悲觀情緒有所減輕，但市場在 12 月 31 日之前仍可能保持區間震盪。</p>
<p>然而，期權分析師 David 預測聖誕節後將出現爆發性上漲。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“預計在聖誕節之前會有波動，隨後一旦釋放壓力可能會出現爆發性走勢。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：David/X</p>
<p>David 指出，大型玩家通過看跌牆（空頭押注）和看漲牆（多頭押注）將價格壓制在 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元之間，這相當於 3 億美元的 gamma 風險敞口。</p>
<p>然而，在節禮日的到期後，比特幣可能會突破其區間。</p>
<p>清算熱圖顯示出類似的定位。上漲流動性池（空頭頭寸）集中在 90,000 美元和 95,000 美元，而下跌頭寸則在 84,000 美元。</p>
<p>這表明可能會出現劇烈波動，觸及這些水平。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CoinAnk</p>
<h2>比特幣需求已消失</h2>
<p>話雖如此，CryptoQuant 警告稱，比特幣的需求已收縮，可能會引發更深的熊市拋售。該分析公司的報告部分內容寫道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“自 10 月初以來，需求增長進入放緩期，目前增長低於趨勢。因此，我們認為本週期的大部分需求增長已經過去，對價格產生了相應的熊市影響。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 補充稱，比特幣的熊市可能在 56,000 美元觸底，立即支撐位在 70,000 美元，引用了歷史數據。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特幣在節禮日後可能突破其 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元的價格區間。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，從中期來看，整體需求已收縮，可能轉變為熊市。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣在歷史上經歷了第二差的第四季度表現，2025 年第四季度下跌了 22.8%。分析師建議，由於流動性不足和期權到期，可能會出現聖誕後波動。儘管對聖誕老人反彈存在一些樂觀情緒，但市場可能在年末保持區間震盪。比特幣的需求已減少，這可能導致更深的熊市，支撐位在 70,000 美元，可能的底部在 56,000 美元</p>

<p>Bitcoin is on track to post the second-worst Q4 performance in history. So far in Q4 2025, the crypto asset has declined by 22.8%, reinforcing Christmas blues as it consolidates losses above $85k.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣有望在歷史上創下第二差的第四季度表現。截至 2025 年第四季度，比特幣已下跌 22.8%，在 85,000 美元以上的損失鞏固了聖誕節的憂鬱情緒。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcin-Christmas-blues.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>In fact, across broader asset categories, gold was the best performer, with 69% annual gains, while Bitcoin was the worst performer, with a 5% loss.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，在更廣泛的資產類別中，黃金錶現最佳，年漲幅為 69%，而比特幣表現最差，損失 5%。</p>
</div><p>Which begs the question: What’s next for Bitcoin [BTC] into the end-of-year?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這引出了一個問題：比特幣 [BTC] 在年末會如何發展？</p>
</div><h2>A potential BTC bounce post-Christmas?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>聖誕節後比特幣可能反彈？</h2>
</div><p>According to the crypto trading desk, QCP, the Christmas holiday’s thin liquidity and the massive Options expiry on the 26th of December, would trigger volatility. But QCP analysts were slightly optimistic and added,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據加密交易平台 QCP 的分析，聖誕假期的流動性稀薄以及 12 月 26 日的大規模期權到期將引發波動。但 QCP 分析師略顯樂觀，並補充道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Downside positioning has eased as 85k Put open interest drifts lower, while 100k Calls persist, pointing to tentative Santa rally optimism.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“隨着 85,000 美元的看跌期權未平倉合約減少，空頭頭寸有所緩解，而 100,000 美元的看漲期權仍然存在，指向謹慎的聖誕反彈樂觀情緒。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The firm also highlighted that bearish sentiment has eased, but the markets could still remain range-bound until the 31st of December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司還強調，悲觀情緒有所減輕，但市場在 12 月 31 日之前仍可能保持區間震盪。</p>
</div><p>However, Options analyst David projected an explosive upside move after Christmas Day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，期權分析師 David 預測聖誕節後將出現爆發性上漲。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Expect chop until Christmas, followed by a potential explosive move once the pin is released.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“預計在聖誕節之前會有波動，隨後一旦釋放壓力可能會出現爆發性走勢。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-gamma.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: David/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：David/X</p>
</div><p>David highlighted that big players were pinning price between $85K-$90K via put wall (bearish bets) and call wall (bullish bets), translating to $300 million in gamma exposure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>David 指出，大型玩家通過看跌牆（空頭押注）和看漲牆（多頭押注）將價格壓制在 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元之間，這相當於 3 億美元的 gamma 風險敞口。</p>
</div><p>However, after the expiry on Boxing Day, BTC could potentially break out of its range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在節禮日的到期後，比特幣可能會突破其區間。</p>
</div><p>A similar positioning was painted by liquidation heatmaps. Upside liquidity pools (short positions) were concentrated at $90K and $95K, while downside positions were at $84K.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>清算熱圖顯示出類似的定位。上漲流動性池（空頭頭寸）集中在 90,000 美元和 95,000 美元，而下跌頭寸則在 84,000 美元。</p>
</div><p>This suggested potential wild swings that could tag these levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明可能會出現劇烈波動，觸及這些水平。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/chart-container-11.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinAnk</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CoinAnk</p>
</div><h2>BTC demand has evaporated</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>比特幣需求已消失</h2>
</div><p>That being said, CryptoQuant cautioned that BTC’s demand has contracted and could usher in deeper bear market capitulation. Part of the analytics firm’s report read,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，CryptoQuant 警告稱，比特幣的需求已收縮，可能會引發更深的熊市拋售。該分析公司的報告部分內容寫道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The demand growth entered a slowdown period since early October and is now growing below trend. As such, we believe most of this cycle’s demand growth has passed, with the corresponding bearish effect on price.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“自 10 月初以來，需求增長進入放緩期，目前增長低於趨勢。因此，我們認為本週期的大部分需求增長已經過去，對價格產生了相應的熊市影響。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Bitcoin-demand.webp"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>CryptoQuant added that BTC’s bear market could bottom out at $56k with immediate support at $70K, citing historical data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 補充稱，比特幣的熊市可能在 56,000 美元觸底，立即支撐位在 70,000 美元，引用了歷史數據。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>BTC could front a bullish breakout of its $85K-$90K price range after Boxing Day.</em></li>
<li><em>However, in the mid-term, the overall demand has contracted and could morph into a bear market.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特幣在節禮日後可能突破其 85,000 美元至 90,000 美元的價格區間。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，從中期來看，整體需求已收縮，可能轉變為熊市。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特幣的聖誕節憂鬱——為什麼 BTC 的聖誕行情可能會被取消