<h3><strong>關鍵要點</strong></h3>
<ul>
<li>在經歷了緩慢的開局後，2025 年底國債收益率曲線的陡峭化獲得了動力，因為美聯儲在三個月內降息 75 個基點，推動短期收益率下降。</li>
<li>隨着經濟温和增長和通脹在 2026 年可能保持在 2% 以上，長期收益率可能會上升，而短期利率保持平穩，從而進一步加劇曲線的陡峭化。</li>
<li>一種主動/被動的債券槓鈴策略為投資者提供了一個及時的方式來鎖定收益，同時保持比基準綜合債券更短的久期，符合不斷變化的收益率曲線動態。</li>
</ul>
<p>在我們準備結束 2025 年之際，美國國債市場的一個突出趨勢是收益率曲線的陡峭化。現在的問題是這一趨勢是否會持續到 2026 年，如果會，投資者應該如何調整他們的債券投資組合？答案是：主動/被動槓鈴策略。</p>
<p><strong>美國國債收益率曲線</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="841" height="365" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：彭博社，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日</p>
<p>在分析國債收益率曲線時，需要關注的兩個主要指標是 3 個月/10 年和 2 年/10 年構造。正如圖表清楚地顯示，2025 年日曆年終於使這兩個利差進入了正值區域。正如預期的那樣，從曲線倒掛或負差異到正值的轉變始於 2024 年 9 月美聯儲首次降息。</p>
<p>然而，正如你所看到的，2024 年美聯儲降息後的初始陡峭化交易似乎有些乏力。直到美聯儲在這一寬鬆週期中啓動第二輪降息時，曲線陡峭化交易才以更明顯的方式迴歸。具體來説，最近經歷這一交易的是 3 個月/10 年構造。鑑於 3 個月國庫券收益率與聯邦基金利率之間的直接相關性，這並不令人驚訝，因為美聯儲在過去三個月內已經降息 75 個基點。3 個月的收益率正在追趕 2 年期國債已經摺現的聯邦基金利率的走勢。因此，這兩條曲線之間的利差現在更接近於一致。</p>
<h3><strong>2026 年將會怎樣？</strong></h3>
<p>對於明年，似乎收益率曲線陡峭化交易的阻力最小路徑將繼續。也許最引人注目的問題是它將如何陡峭化。請記住，這實際上只是數學問題。收益率曲線的方向將取決於你所測量的兩個到期日的收益率。我們對明年的基本預期是，經濟將實現温和增長，通脹將保持在美聯儲 2% 的目標之上。在這種背景下，以及美聯儲內部存在 “分歧” 的情況下，短期收益率或曲線的前端可能會保持平穩，或者可能略微下降。然而，長期到期（曲線的後端）可能會見證收益率的上升。因此，收益率曲線陡峭化。</p>
<h3><strong>結論</strong></h3>
<p>所以，回到開頭。主動/被動債券槓鈴策略使投資者在收入和久期定位上具有靈活性。它提供了一種鎖定收益的方式，同時保持久期特徵低於基準綜合債券。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>美聯儲觀察：重新校準 “重新校準”</p>
<p>新招聘和失業率如何同時上升？</p>
<p>美聯儲觀察：一個分裂的家庭？</p>

美國債券綜合指數 ETF - iShares

<p>美國國債收益率曲線在 2025 年底變陡，因為美聯儲將利率下調了 75 個基點，降低了短期收益率。預計 2026 年經濟將適度增長，通脹率將超過 2%，這可能導致長期收益率上升，進一步加劇曲線陡峭。建議投資者採用主動/被動債券槓鈴策略，以鎖定收益，同時保持比基準綜合債券指數更短的久期，以適應收益率曲線的動態變化</p>

<h3><strong>Key Takeaways</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>關鍵要點</strong></h3>
</div><ul>
<li>After a sluggish start, the Treasury yield curve steepening gained momentum in late 2025 as the Federal Reserve cut rates by 75 basis points over three months, driving short-term yields lower.</li>
<li>With moderate economic growth and inflation likely to stay above 2% in 2026, longer-term yields could rise while short-term rates stay flat, further steepening the curve.</li>
<li>An active/passive bond barbell strategy offers investors a timely way to lock in income while maintaining a shorter duration than the benchmark Agg, aligning with evolving yield curve dynamics.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>在經歷了緩慢的開局後，2025 年底國債收益率曲線的陡峭化獲得了動力，因為美聯儲在三個月內降息 75 個基點，推動短期收益率下降。</li>
<li>隨着經濟温和增長和通脹在 2026 年可能保持在 2% 以上，長期收益率可能會上升，而短期利率保持平穩，從而進一步加劇曲線的陡峭化。</li>
<li>一種主動/被動的債券槓鈴策略為投資者提供了一個及時的方式來鎖定收益，同時保持比基準綜合債券更短的久期，符合不斷變化的收益率曲線動態。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>As we get ready to close out 2025, one stand-out trend in the U.S. Treasury (UST) market has been the steepening of the yield curve. The question now is whether this trend will continue into 2026, and if it does, how should investors position their bond portfolios? The answer: the active/passive barbell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我們準備結束 2025 年之際，美國國債市場的一個突出趨勢是收益率曲線的陡峭化。現在的問題是這一趨勢是否會持續到 2026 年，如果會，投資者應該如何調整他們的債券投資組合？答案是：主動/被動槓鈴策略。</p>
</div><p><strong>U.S. Treasury Yield Curves</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美國國債收益率曲線</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.wisdomtree.com/investments/-/media/us-media-files/blog/blog-images-2/2025/december/the-answer-to-the-curve-steepener-active-passive-barbell/figure-1-1.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Bloomberg, as of 12/19/25</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：彭博社，截至 2025 年 12 月 19 日</p>
</div><p>When examining the Treasury yield curve, the two prominent measures to be analyzed are the 3-month/10-year and 2-year/10-year constructs. As the graph clearly illustrates, calendar year 2025 finally brought both spreads into positive territory. As one would expect, the reversal in the trade from curve inversion, or negative differentials, to readings on the plus side of the ledger began with the Federal Reserve’s first rate cuts in September 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在分析國債收益率曲線時，需要關注的兩個主要指標是 3 個月/10 年和 2 年/10 年構造。正如圖表清楚地顯示，2025 年日曆年終於使這兩個利差進入了正值區域。正如預期的那樣，從曲線倒掛或負差異到正值的轉變始於 2024 年 9 月美聯儲首次降息。</p>
</div><p>However, as you can see, the initial steepening trade following the 2024 Fed rate cuts kind of ran out of gas. It really wasn’t until the Fed kick-started round two of rate cuts in this easing cycle that the curve steepener trade returned in a more visible fashion. Specifically, it was the 3-mo/10-yr construct that has recently experienced this trade. Given the direct correlation of the 3-month t-bill yield to the Fed Funds Rate, this should come as no surprise, given the fact the Fed has now cut rates by 75 basis points over the last three months. The 3-month yield was catching up to what the 2-year note had already discounted regarding where the Fed Funds Rate was headed. As a result, the spreads between these two curves are now closer to being aligned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，正如你所看到的，2024 年美聯儲降息後的初始陡峭化交易似乎有些乏力。直到美聯儲在這一寬鬆週期中啓動第二輪降息時，曲線陡峭化交易才以更明顯的方式迴歸。具體來説，最近經歷這一交易的是 3 個月/10 年構造。鑑於 3 個月國庫券收益率與聯邦基金利率之間的直接相關性，這並不令人驚訝，因為美聯儲在過去三個月內已經降息 75 個基點。3 個月的收益率正在追趕 2 年期國債已經摺現的聯邦基金利率的走勢。因此，這兩條曲線之間的利差現在更接近於一致。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What Will 2026 Have in Store?</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2026 年將會怎樣？</strong></h3>
</div><p>For next year, it appears as if the path of least resistance would be for the curve steepener trade to continue. Perhaps the most intriguing question is how it will steepen. Remember, it really is just math. The yield curve direction will be predicated on the two maturities you are measuring in terms of yield. Our baseline for next year is that the economy is going to post moderate growth and inflation will remain above the Fed’s 2% target. Against this backdrop, and one of a Fed with a ” house divided,” short-term yields, or the front-end of the curve, would probably be flattish or perhaps could drift a bit lower. Longer-dated maturities (the back-end of the curve), however, could witness an increase in yields. Hence, the yield curve steepens.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於明年，似乎收益率曲線陡峭化交易的阻力最小路徑將繼續。也許最引人注目的問題是它將如何陡峭化。請記住，這實際上只是數學問題。收益率曲線的方向將取決於你所測量的兩個到期日的收益率。我們對明年的基本預期是，經濟將實現温和增長，通脹將保持在美聯儲 2% 的目標之上。在這種背景下，以及美聯儲內部存在 “分歧” 的情況下，短期收益率或曲線的前端可能會保持平穩，或者可能略微下降。然而，長期到期（曲線的後端）可能會見證收益率的上升。因此，收益率曲線陡峭化。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Conclusion</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>結論</strong></h3>
</div><p>So, back to the beginning. The active/passive bond barbell allows investors to have flexibility in their income and duration positioning. It provides a means to lock in income while keeping the duration profile below that of the benchmark Agg.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>所以，回到開頭。主動/被動債券槓鈴策略使投資者在收入和久期定位上具有靈活性。它提供了一種鎖定收益的方式，同時保持久期特徵低於基準綜合債券。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Fed Watch: Recalibrating The “Recalibration”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲觀察：重新校準 “重新校準”</p>
</div><p>How Can New Hiring And The Unemployment Rate Rise At The Same Time?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新招聘和失業率如何同時上升？</p>
</div><p>Fed Watch: A House Divided?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲觀察：一個分裂的家庭？</p>
</div>

曲線陡峭化的解決方案：主動/被動槓鈴策略