<h2>貸款困境：Evertrust 表示，抵押貸款利率已攀升至自 2008 年金融危機以來的最高水平，使首次購房者的借款變得困難。</h2>
<p>永慶房屋在週三表示，台灣的房地產市場預計將在明年整合，交易量預計將保持在今年的水平，因為緊縮的抵押貸款條件繼續對需求施加壓力。</p>
<p>該公司預測，明年的房屋銷售量將在 251,000 到 264,000 之間，這意味着與今年估計的 260,000 套相比，可能出現 3% 的下降或輕微的 2% 的增長。</p>
<p>永慶總經理葉凌棋在台北的新聞發佈會上表示，今年的數字將代表 27% 的下滑，這歸因於中央銀行對房地產貸款的限制。</p>
<p>葉表示：“政策收緊帶來的最糟糕情況可能已經過去，除非出現重大經濟或政策衝擊，否則情況不太可能惡化。”</p>
<p>他説，投機性買家大多已退出市場，交易越來越多地由自住型購房者驅動，只要台灣經濟保持大體穩定。</p>
<p>葉指出，影響前景的四大主要不確定性包括：全球人工智能繁榮的健康狀況、特朗普總統下的華盛頓貿易政策、國內住房政策方向、兩岸關係以及新住房供應的速度。</p>
<p>借款成本仍然是一個主要的阻力。</p>
<p>葉表示，抵押貸款利率已攀升至約 2.3%，為 2008-2009 年全球金融危機以來的最高水平，降低了首次購房者的可負擔性。</p>
<p>他説，多年來，台灣購房者習慣於低於 2% 的抵押貸款利率，儘管房價高企，並補充説，利率已成為市場上最關鍵的變量。</p>
<p>當政府的利息補貼計劃在明年 7 月到期時，可負擔性壓力將加劇。</p>
<p>該計劃為高達 NT$1000 萬（約 317,662 美元）的貸款提供補貼利率，並設有五年的寬限期，幫助家庭緩解上升的借款成本，永慶表示。</p>
<p>當局計劃在明年 7 月推出額外的支持措施，儘管葉對過早披露細節表示謹慎。</p>
<p>他表示，早期信號可能會鼓勵潛在買家觀望，風險是在上半年交易凍結。</p>
<p>儘管如此，住房情緒略有改善。</p>
<p>調查顯示，預計明年第一季度房價下跌的受訪者比例從上季度的 50% 降至 39%，而預計房價上漲的比例上升至 26%。</p>
<p>永慶研究經理陳賜傑表示，約 35% 的受訪者預計房價將保持穩定。</p>
<p>陳表示，這一變化是在政策制定者決定免除首次購房者的房地產貸款限制後發生的，儘管他們仍然維持整體信貸控制。</p>
<p>在上週四，中央銀行放寬了對銀行的貸款減少要求，並要求貸款機構每月提交抵押貸款數據，這可能會帶來額外的緩解。</p>
<p>陳補充説，這一舉措可能有助於加快之前延遲或中斷交易的貸款審批。</p>

AOMR

<p>台灣的房地產市場預計將在明年進行整合，交易量將與今年相似，原因是抵押貸款條件緊張。抵押貸款利率已升至自 2008 年金融危機以來的最高水平，影響了首次購房者。永信房屋預測，房屋銷售量將在 251,000 到 264,000 之間，與今年的 260,000 略有變化。市場主要由自住型購房者推動，但面臨的不確定因素包括全球人工智能趨勢、美國貿易政策、國內住房政策以及兩岸關係。隨着政府的利息補貼計劃在七月結束，購房負擔壓力可能會增加</p>

<h2>LENDING WOES: Mortgage rates have climbed to their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, making borrowing difficult for first-time buyers, Evertrust said</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>貸款困境：Evertrust 表示，抵押貸款利率已攀升至自 2008 年金融危機以來的最高水平，使首次購房者的借款變得困難。</h2>
</div><p>Taiwan’s housing market is set to consolidate next year, with transaction volumes expected to hold near this year’s levels as tight mortgage conditions continue to weigh on demand, Evertrust Rehouse Co (永慶房屋) said on Wednesday, citing a quarterly survey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永慶房屋在週三表示，台灣的房地產市場預計將在明年整合，交易量預計將保持在今年的水平，因為緊縮的抵押貸款條件繼續對需求施加壓力。</p>
</div><p>Between 251,000 and 264,000 home sales are forecast for next year, implying anything from a 3 percent decline to a mild 2 percent increase from this year’s estimated 260,000 units, the company said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司預測，明年的房屋銷售量將在 251,000 到 264,000 之間，這意味着與今年估計的 260,000 套相比，可能出現 3% 的下降或輕微的 2% 的增長。</p>
</div><p>This year’s figures would represent a 27 percent slump, attributable to the central bank’s property loan curbs, Evertrust general manager Yeh Ling-chi (葉凌棋) told a news conference in Taipei.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永慶總經理葉凌棋在台北的新聞發佈會上表示，今年的數字將代表 27% 的下滑，這歸因於中央銀行對房地產貸款的限制。</p>
</div><p>“The worst from policy tightening is likely over and conditions are unlikely to deteriorate, barring major economic or policy shocks,” Yeh said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>葉表示：“政策收緊帶來的最糟糕情況可能已經過去，除非出現重大經濟或政策衝擊，否則情況不太可能惡化。”</p>
</div><p>Speculative buyers have mostly exited the market, leaving transactions increasingly driven by owner-occupiers, he said, as long as Taiwan’s economy remains broadly stable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説，投機性買家大多已退出市場，交易越來越多地由自住型購房者驅動，只要台灣經濟保持大體穩定。</p>
</div><p>Yeh flagged four major uncertainties shaping the outlook: the health of a global artificial intelligence boom, Washington’s trade policy under US President Donald Trump, domestic housing policy directions, cross-strait relations and the pace of new housing supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>葉指出，影響前景的四大主要不確定性包括：全球人工智能繁榮的健康狀況、特朗普總統下的華盛頓貿易政策、國內住房政策方向、兩岸關係以及新住房供應的速度。</p>
</div><p>Borrowing costs remain a key headwind.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>借款成本仍然是一個主要的阻力。</p>
</div><p>Mortgage rates have climbed to about 2.3 percent, the highest since the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, eroding affordability for first-time buyers, Yeh said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>葉表示，抵押貸款利率已攀升至約 2.3%，為 2008-2009 年全球金融危機以來的最高水平，降低了首次購房者的可負擔性。</p>
</div><p>For years, Taiwanese homebuyers had grown accustomed to mortgage rates below 2 percent despite elevated home prices, he said, adding that interest rates have become the single most critical variable for the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説，多年來，台灣購房者習慣於低於 2% 的抵押貸款利率，儘管房價高企，並補充説，利率已成為市場上最關鍵的變量。</p>
</div><p>Affordability pressures are set to intensify when a government interest-subsidy program expires in July next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當政府的利息補貼計劃在明年 7 月到期時，可負擔性壓力將加劇。</p>
</div><p>The scheme, which provides subsidized interest rates on loans of up to NT$10 million (US$317,662) along with a five-year grace period, helped cushion households from rising borrowing costs, Evertrust said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該計劃為高達 NT$1000 萬（約 317,662 美元）的貸款提供補貼利率，並設有五年的寬限期，幫助家庭緩解上升的借款成本，永慶表示。</p>
</div><p>Authorities plan to roll out additional support measures in July next year, although Yeh cautioned against disclosing details too soon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當局計劃在明年 7 月推出額外的支持措施，儘管葉對過早披露細節表示謹慎。</p>
</div><p>Early signals could encourage would-be buyers to sit on the sidelines, risking a freeze in transactions during the first half of the year, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，早期信號可能會鼓勵潛在買家觀望，風險是在上半年交易凍結。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, housing sentiment has improved modestly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，住房情緒略有改善。</p>
</div><p>The share of respondents expecting home prices to fall in the first quarter of next year dropped to 39 percent from 50 percent in the prior quarter, while those anticipating price gains rose to 26 percent, the survey showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>調查顯示，預計明年第一季度房價下跌的受訪者比例從上季度的 50% 降至 39%，而預計房價上漲的比例上升至 26%。</p>
</div><p>About 35 percent of respondents expect prices to hold steady, Evertrust research manager Daniel Chen (陳賜傑) said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>永慶研究經理陳賜傑表示，約 35% 的受訪者預計房價將保持穩定。</p>
</div><p>The shift followed policymakers’ decision to exempt first-time homebuyers from property loan restrictions, even as they maintain overall credit controls, Chen said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陳表示，這一變化是在政策制定者決定免除首次購房者的房地產貸款限制後發生的，儘管他們仍然維持整體信貸控制。</p>
</div><p>Additional relief might be emerging after the central bank on Thursday last week eased loan-reduction requirements for banks and required lenders to submit mortgage data on a monthly basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上週四，中央銀行放寬了對銀行的貸款減少要求，並要求貸款機構每月提交抵押貸款數據，這可能會帶來額外的緩解。</p>
</div><p>The move could help speed up loan approvals that had previously delayed or derailed transactions, Chen added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陳補充説，這一舉措可能有助於加快之前延遲或中斷交易的貸款審批。</p>
</div>

經紀人表示，房地產市場將在明年整合