<p>根據 CoinGlass 的報告，比特幣的價格現在更多地受到衍生品市場的影響，而非現貨交易。這標誌着資產價格波動和風險在市場上傳遞的結構性變化。</p>
<p>報告顯示，期貨、永續合約和期權現在佔據了比特幣交易活動的主要部分。</p>
<p>此外，衍生品的交易量始終超過現貨交易量，即使在價格波動加劇的時期也是如此。</p>
<p>因此，短期價格方向越來越多地由持倉、槓桿和對沖行為決定，而不是比特幣本身的直接買賣。</p>
<h2><strong>比特幣衍生品交易量超過現貨交易</strong></h2>
<p>CoinGlass 的數據突顯出，比特幣衍生品的交易量已經增長到現貨市場活動的幾倍。這一模式在上漲、回調和整合階段中保持不變。</p>
<p>這種不平衡表明，價格發現，即市場確定價值的過程，已不再主要由現貨流動驅動。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Coinglass</p>
<p>相反，期貨和永續合約越來越主導價格波動，現貨市場在方向性動量已經建立後才做出反應。</p>
<p>這與早期週期有所不同，當時持續的現貨積累或分配在趨勢方向中扮演了更清晰的角色。</p>
<h2><strong>期貨和期權現在主導短期價格走勢</strong></h2>
<p>報告還強調了期權和期貨市場日益增長的影響力，特別是在機構參與增加的情況下。</p>
<p>與 ETF、宏觀經濟事件和波動管理相關的對沖活動變得更加突出。這使得大型參與者能夠在不進行現貨比特幣交易的情況下表達方向性觀點。</p>
<p>這種轉變有助於解釋為什麼最近的市場波動在表面上看起來較為平靜。價格上漲和回調往往發生在現貨交易量沒有相應激增的情況下。</p>
<p>這一變化表明，推動邊際價格變化的是槓桿和衍生品持倉，而非新資本流入。</p>
<h2><strong>平靜的價格走勢掩蓋了潛在風險</strong></h2>
<p>儘管衍生品的主導地位日益增強，比特幣的實際波動性在較長時間內仍然相對低迷。CoinGlass 的數據表明，開放興趣高企的同時波動性卻被壓縮。</p>
<p>這種組合表明，風險正在系統中被儲存，而不是被解決。</p>
<p>這樣的條件可能會造成穩定的表象。然而，當持倉變得擁擠或強制去槓桿發生時，也增加了價格突然調整的可能性。</p>
<p>在這種環境下，價格修正更可能是由資金壓力或清算級聯引發，而不是現貨需求的逐步變化。</p>
<h2><strong>與之前週期不同的市場結構</strong></h2>
<p>報告強調了比特幣當前週期與之前週期的獨特性。歷史上，主要市場轉折點通常與現貨驅動的拋售或積累相關。</p>
<p>如今，轉折點越來越多地與衍生品持倉變化、期權到期動態和槓桿重置相關聯。</p>
<p>隨着比特幣作為金融資產的不斷成熟，其行為開始類似於傳統的宏觀交易工具，其中衍生品市場在價格形成中扮演着核心角色。</p>
<h2><strong>這對市場意味着什麼</strong></h2>
<p>對於交易者和投資者而言，CoinGlass 建議監測衍生品指標變得比單純跟蹤現貨流動更為重要。</p>
<p>雖然現貨市場對於長期供應動態仍然重要，但短期價格走勢現在更敏感於風險的持倉方式，而不是比特幣的直接買賣量。</p>
<p>隨着衍生品市場的不斷深化，比特幣的價格在表面上可能顯得更加平靜，但塑造其波動的力量正變得越來越複雜——並且集中在其背後。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最後的思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li>比特幣的價格越來越受到衍生品持倉的影響，使得槓桿和對沖活動比現貨需求更具影響力。</li>
<li>在現貨市場重新獲得主導地位之前，價格波動可能仍然受到控制——但更容易受到突然的、由持倉驅動的波動影響。</li>
</ul>
<hr/>

GBTC

<p>根據 CoinGlass 的報告，比特幣的價格發現已從現貨交易轉向衍生品市場。期貨、永續合約和期權現在主導着交易活動，通過持倉和槓桿影響短期價格方向。這一結構性變化表明，驅動價格波動的是衍生品，而非現貨流動，機構參與和對沖活動在其中發揮了關鍵作用。儘管表面價格走勢平穩，但由於未平倉合約水平較高和波動性壓縮，潛在風險依然存在，使市場容易受到衍生品持倉驅動的突發波動影響</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s price is now being shaped more by derivatives markets than by spot trading, according to CoinGlass’ report. This marks a structural shift in how the asset moves and how risk is transmitted across the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CoinGlass 的報告，比特幣的價格現在更多地受到衍生品市場的影響，而非現貨交易。這標誌着資產價格波動和風險在市場上傳遞的結構性變化。</p>
</div><p>The report shows that futures, perpetual swaps, and options now account for the majority of Bitcoin trading activity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告顯示，期貨、永續合約和期權現在佔據了比特幣交易活動的主要部分。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, derivatives volume consistently exceeds spot volume, even during periods of heightened price volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，衍生品的交易量始終超過現貨交易量，即使在價格波動加劇的時期也是如此。</p>
</div><p>As a result, the short-term price direction is increasingly determined by positioning, leverage, and hedging behavior rather than the outright buying or selling of Bitcoin itself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，短期價格方向越來越多地由持倉、槓桿和對沖行為決定，而不是比特幣本身的直接買賣。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Bitcoin derivatives volumes eclipse spot trading</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>比特幣衍生品交易量超過現貨交易</strong></h2>
</div><p>CoinGlass data highlights that Bitcoin derivatives volume has grown to several multiples of spot market activity. This pattern has remained intact throughout rallies, corrections, and consolidation phases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoinGlass 的數據突顯出，比特幣衍生品的交易量已經增長到現貨市場活動的幾倍。這一模式在上漲、回調和整合階段中保持不變。</p>
</div><p>This imbalance suggests that price discovery, the process by which markets determine value, is no longer driven primarily by spot flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種不平衡表明，價格發現，即市場確定價值的過程，已不再主要由現貨流動驅動。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/5f52e2ef-038b-4d89-a248-b6facc861bb1.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Coinglass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Coinglass</p>
</div><p>Instead, futures and perpetual contracts increasingly lead price moves, with spot markets reacting after directional momentum has already been established.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，期貨和永續合約越來越主導價格波動，現貨市場在方向性動量已經建立後才做出反應。</p>
</div><p>This is a departure from earlier cycles, when sustained spot accumulation or distribution played a clearer role in trend direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這與早期週期有所不同，當時持續的現貨積累或分配在趨勢方向中扮演了更清晰的角色。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Futures and options now lead short-term price action</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>期貨和期權現在主導短期價格走勢</strong></h2>
</div><p>The report also highlights the growing influence of options and futures markets, particularly as institutional participation has increased.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告還強調了期權和期貨市場日益增長的影響力，特別是在機構參與增加的情況下。</p>
</div><p>Hedging activity tied to ETFs, macroeconomic events, and volatility management has become more prominent. This has allowed large participants to express directional views without transacting in spot Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 ETF、宏觀經濟事件和波動管理相關的對沖活動變得更加突出。這使得大型參與者能夠在不進行現貨比特幣交易的情況下表達方向性觀點。</p>
</div><p>This shift helps explain why recent market moves have appeared muted on the surface. Price advances and pullbacks have often occurred without corresponding surges in spot volume.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種轉變有助於解釋為什麼最近的市場波動在表面上看起來較為平靜。價格上漲和回調往往發生在現貨交易量沒有相應激增的情況下。</p>
</div><p>The move indicates leverage and derivatives positioning, rather than fresh capital inflows, are driving marginal price changes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一變化表明，推動邊際價格變化的是槓桿和衍生品持倉，而非新資本流入。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Calm price action masks underlying risk</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>平靜的價格走勢掩蓋了潛在風險</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite the growing dominance of derivatives, realised volatility in Bitcoin has remained relatively subdued for extended periods. CoinGlass data shows elevated open interest alongside compressed volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管衍生品的主導地位日益增強，比特幣的實際波動性在較長時間內仍然相對低迷。CoinGlass 的數據表明，開放興趣高企的同時波動性卻被壓縮。</p>
</div><p>This combination suggests risk is being stored in the system rather than resolved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種組合表明，風險正在系統中被儲存，而不是被解決。</p>
</div><p>Such conditions can create the appearance of stability. However, they also increase the likelihood of abrupt price adjustments when positioning becomes crowded or when forced deleveraging occurs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這樣的條件可能會造成穩定的表象。然而，當持倉變得擁擠或強制去槓桿發生時，也增加了價格突然調整的可能性。</p>
</div><p>In this environment, price corrections are more likely to be triggered by funding stress or liquidation cascades than by gradual shifts in spot demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種環境下，價格修正更可能是由資金壓力或清算級聯引發，而不是現貨需求的逐步變化。</p>
</div><h2><strong>A different market structure than previous cycles</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>與之前週期不同的市場結構</strong></h2>
</div><p>The report highlights the distinctiveness of Bitcoin’s current cycle compared to previous ones. Historically, major market turning points were often associated with spot-driven capitulation or accumulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告強調了比特幣當前週期與之前週期的獨特性。歷史上，主要市場轉折點通常與現貨驅動的拋售或積累相關。</p>
</div><p>Today, turning points are increasingly linked to changes in derivatives positioning, options expiry dynamics, and leverage resets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如今，轉折點越來越多地與衍生品持倉變化、期權到期動態和槓桿重置相關聯。</p>
</div><p>As Bitcoin continues to mature as a financial asset, its behaviour is beginning to resemble that of traditional macro-traded instruments, where derivatives markets play a central role in price formation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着比特幣作為金融資產的不斷成熟，其行為開始類似於傳統的宏觀交易工具，其中衍生品市場在價格形成中扮演着核心角色。</p>
</div><h2><strong>What this means for the market</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>這對市場意味着什麼</strong></h2>
</div><p>For traders and investors, CoinGlass suggests that monitoring derivatives metrics has become more important than tracking spot flows alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於交易者和投資者而言，CoinGlass 建議監測衍生品指標變得比單純跟蹤現貨流動更為重要。</p>
</div><p>While spot markets still matter for long-term supply dynamics, short-term price action is now more sensitive to how risk is positioned rather than how much Bitcoin is being bought or sold outright.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然現貨市場對於長期供應動態仍然重要，但短期價格走勢現在更敏感於風險的持倉方式，而不是比特幣的直接買賣量。</p>
</div><p>As derivatives markets continue to deepen, Bitcoin’s price may appear calmer on the surface, but the forces shaping its movements are increasingly complex — and concentrated beneath it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着衍生品市場的不斷深化，比特幣的價格在表面上可能顯得更加平靜，但塑造其波動的力量正變得越來越複雜——並且集中在其背後。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最後的思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li>Bitcoin’s price is increasingly shaped by derivatives positioning, making leverage and hedging activity more influential than spot demand.</li>
<li>Until spot markets regain dominance, price moves may remain controlled — but more vulnerable to sudden, positioning-driven volatility.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>比特幣的價格越來越受到衍生品持倉的影響，使得槓桿和對沖活動比現貨需求更具影響力。</li>
<li>在現貨市場重新獲得主導地位之前，價格波動可能仍然受到控制——但更容易受到突然的、由持倉驅動的波動影響。</li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

比特幣的價格發現已經明確地轉向了衍生品市場