<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="667" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>每個市場參與者都在一個框架內運作，無論他們是否意識到。這個框架決定了哪些信息重要，哪些被忽視，以及在不確定性存在時如何做出決策。</p>
<p>交易者和長期投資者通常在非常不同的框架下工作。兩種方法本質上並沒有優劣之分，但它們解決的問題不同。對我來説，交易一直更直觀，因為它始於一個現實的假設：未來是未知的。</p>
<p>長期投資者通常相信他們可以識別出新興技術中的最終贏家。他們研究產品、管理團隊、資產負債表和行業趨勢，然後將這些因素向前推演。歷史表明，這比看起來要困難得多。</p>
<p>在 1980 年代，投資者相信 Commodore 將主導個人計算機市場。個人計算機重塑了世界；然而，Commodore 並沒有在競爭中生存下來。在 1990 年代，摩托羅拉被廣泛視為移動通信的未來。手機改變了日常生活，但摩托羅拉在智能手機重新定義市場之前就失去了市場領導地位。</p>
<p>這種模式是一致的。技術在演變。競爭在加劇。早期的領導者被取代。假設一個人能夠可靠地識別出在快速變化的領域中的最終贏家，這更多的是對預見能力的信心，而不是分析。</p>
<p>這不是批評。這是對信息侷限性的認識。</p>
<p>準確識別長期贏家需要技術專長、對管理執行的洞察、對資本配置的理解以及對消費者行為的可靠預測。即使是大型機構也在這項任務中掙扎。個人投資者面臨的挑戰甚至更大。</p>
<p>交易者以不同的方式接近市場。他們不試圖預測幾年後哪種技術將主導。他們認識到市場在結果已知之前就不斷重新定價預期。他們的目標不是對未來做出正確的判斷，而是對當前發生的事情做出正確的反應。</p>
<p>這種區別很重要。</p>
<p>許多人從小就被教導投資意味着分析財務報表並識別具有吸引力價值的好公司。在實踐中，這些概念是主觀的。什麼 qualifies 為價值是變化的。什麼定義為好產品也是在演變。因此，許多長期投資者即使在價格大幅下跌時仍然堅持持有。</p>
<p>交易者在更嚴格的標準下運作。價格行為是最終的裁決者。被積累的股票上漲。被分配的股票下跌。財務報表存在，但它們在參與者實際如何定位自己時是次要的。</p>
<p>這就是我的收入交易者波動性指標的作用所在。</p>
<p>ITV 是為了在這個交易框架內運作而開發的。它不試圖評估產品或預測行業領導地位。它測量個別股票內部波動性的行為，這也是衡量情緒通過價格表達的一種方式。當波動性超出歷史上可持續的範圍時，反轉的條件開始形成。當這種壓力釋放時，價格會調整。</p>
<p>本月早些時候，宏盟集團（Omnicom Group Inc.，OMC）提供了這一過程的一個清晰示例。該指標識別出一個波動性極端，發出了潛在轉變的信號。該信號並不是基於預測、收益敍述或對廣告行業的看法，而是完全基於可測量的行為。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="624" height="286" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png"/></p>
<p>第二天，當波動性正常化時，該指標發出了賣出信號。該交易在一天內捕獲了大約 5.5% 的收益。</p>
<p>這一結果並不是預測宏盟未來的結果，而是對情緒過度反應及其解決的反應。</p>
<p>這些是該指標旨在識別的機會類型：由定位和心理驅動的短期波動，而不是長期敍述。一天內 5.5% 的收益可能聽起來並不驚人，但幾次這樣的收益會累積起來。</p>
<p>對於那些習慣於相信深入理解一家公司是成功交易所必需的人來説，這種框架可能會讓人感到不適。但交易並不是關於信念，而是關於執行。</p>
<p>利潤和損失比預測更重要。這不是憤世嫉俗，而是紀律。</p>
<p>一個新的範式並不否定創新或商業基本面。它認識到市場在結果已知之前就會基於情緒、預期和定位而波動。直接測量這些力量通常比試圖超越它們更可靠。</p>
<p>這就是我交易的框架。這也是我每天依賴的指標的基礎。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者：</em></p>
<p>這種交易優勢忽視頭條新聞並保護您的收益</p>
<p>解鎖隱藏在市場混亂中的交易優勢</p>
<p>這種微妙的波動性變化揭示了新的機會</p>

宏盟集團

<p>本文探討了交易者和長期投資者的對比框架，強調了未來市場領袖的不可預測性。文章介紹了收入交易者波動性指標，該指標側重於價格行為和波動性，而非長期預測。最近以宏盟集團為例，展示了該指標的有效性，通過應對波動極端而非預測未來結果，在一天內實現了 5.5% 的收益</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1569025690938-a00729c9e1f9?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=eyJhcHBfaWQiOjEyMDd9&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Every market participant operates within a framework, whether they recognize it or not. That framework determines what information matters, what gets ignored, and how decisions are made when certainty is unavailable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每個市場參與者都在一個框架內運作，無論他們是否意識到。這個框架決定了哪些信息重要，哪些被忽視，以及在不確定性存在時如何做出決策。</p>
</div><p>Traders and long-term investors often work from very different frameworks. Neither approach is inherently superior, but they address different problems. For me, trading has always been more intuitive because it begins with a realistic assumption: the future is unknown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者和長期投資者通常在非常不同的框架下工作。兩種方法本質上並沒有優劣之分，但它們解決的問題不同。對我來説，交易一直更直觀，因為它始於一個現實的假設：未來是未知的。</p>
</div><p>Long-term investors often believe they can identify the eventual winners in emerging technologies. They study products, management teams, balance sheets, and industry trends, then project those factors forward. History suggests this is far more difficult than it appears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>長期投資者通常相信他們可以識別出新興技術中的最終贏家。他們研究產品、管理團隊、資產負債表和行業趨勢，然後將這些因素向前推演。歷史表明，這比看起來要困難得多。</p>
</div><p>In the 1980s, investors believed Commodore would dominate personal computing. Personal computers reshaped the world; however, Commodore did not survive the competition. In the 1990s, Motorola was widely viewed as the future of mobile communication. Cell phones transformed daily life, but Motorola lost its market leadership long before smartphones redefined the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 1980 年代，投資者相信 Commodore 將主導個人計算機市場。個人計算機重塑了世界；然而，Commodore 並沒有在競爭中生存下來。在 1990 年代，摩托羅拉被廣泛視為移動通信的未來。手機改變了日常生活，但摩托羅拉在智能手機重新定義市場之前就失去了市場領導地位。</p>
</div><p>The pattern is consistent. Technology evolves. Competition intensifies. Early leaders are displaced. Assuming that one can reliably identify the ultimate winner in a rapidly changing space is less analysis than confidence in foresight.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種模式是一致的。技術在演變。競爭在加劇。早期的領導者被取代。假設一個人能夠可靠地識別出在快速變化的領域中的最終贏家，這更多的是對預見能力的信心，而不是分析。</p>
</div><p>That is not criticism. It is a recognition of the limits of information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這不是批評。這是對信息侷限性的認識。</p>
</div><p>Accurately identifying long-term winners requires technical expertise, insight into management execution, an understanding of capital allocation, and reliable forecasts of consumer behavior. Even large institutions struggle with the task. Individual investors face an even steeper challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>準確識別長期贏家需要技術專長、對管理執行的洞察、對資本配置的理解以及對消費者行為的可靠預測。即使是大型機構也在這項任務中掙扎。個人投資者面臨的挑戰甚至更大。</p>
</div><p>Traders approach the market differently. They do not attempt to predict which technology will dominate years from now. They recognize that markets continuously reprice expectations long before outcomes are known. Their objective is not to be right about the future, but to respond correctly to what is happening now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者以不同的方式接近市場。他們不試圖預測幾年後哪種技術將主導。他們認識到市場在結果已知之前就不斷重新定價預期。他們的目標不是對未來做出正確的判斷，而是對當前發生的事情做出正確的反應。</p>
</div><p>This distinction matters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種區別很重要。</p>
</div><p>Many people are taught from an early age that investing means analyzing financial statements and identifying good companies at attractive values. In practice, those concepts are subjective. What qualifies as value changes. What defines a good product evolves. As a result, many long-term investors remain committed to positions even as prices decline dramatically.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多人從小就被教導投資意味着分析財務報表並識別具有吸引力價值的好公司。在實踐中，這些概念是主觀的。什麼 qualifies 為價值是變化的。什麼定義為好產品也是在演變。因此，許多長期投資者即使在價格大幅下跌時仍然堅持持有。</p>
</div><p>Traders operate under a stricter standard. Price behavior is the final arbiter. Stocks that are being accumulated rise. Stocks that are being distributed fall. Financial statements exist, but they are secondary to how participants are actually positioning themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者在更嚴格的標準下運作。價格行為是最終的裁決者。被積累的股票上漲。被分配的股票下跌。財務報表存在，但它們在參與者實際如何定位自己時是次要的。</p>
</div><p>This is where my Income Trader Volatility indicator fits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是我的收入交易者波動性指標的作用所在。</p>
</div><p>ITV was developed to operate within this trading framework. It does not attempt to evaluate products or forecast industry leadership. It measures how volatility behaves inside individual stocks, which is another way of measuring how emotion expresses itself through price. When volatility expands beyond what history suggests is sustainable, conditions for a reversal begin to form. When that pressure releases, price adjusts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ITV 是為了在這個交易框架內運作而開發的。它不試圖評估產品或預測行業領導地位。它測量個別股票內部波動性的行為，這也是衡量情緒通過價格表達的一種方式。當波動性超出歷史上可持續的範圍時，反轉的條件開始形成。當這種壓力釋放時，價格會調整。</p>
</div><p>Earlier this month, Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) provided a clear example of this process. The indicator identified a volatility extreme that signaled a potential transition. That signal was not based on a forecast, an earnings narrative, or an opinion about the advertising industry. It was based entirely on measurable behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本月早些時候，宏盟集團（Omnicom Group Inc.，OMC）提供了這一過程的一個清晰示例。該指標識別出一個波動性極端，發出了潛在轉變的信號。該信號並不是基於預測、收益敍述或對廣告行業的看法，而是完全基於可測量的行為。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.investorsalley.com/wp-content/uploads/image-641.png"/></p>
<p>The following day, as volatility normalized, the indicator generated a sell signal. The trade captured a gain of roughly 5.5% in one day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二天，當波動性正常化時，該指標發出了賣出信號。該交易在一天內捕獲了大約 5.5% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>That outcome was not the result of predicting Omnicom’s future. It was the result of responding to an emotional overshoot and its resolution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一結果並不是預測宏盟未來的結果，而是對情緒過度反應及其解決的反應。</p>
</div><p>These are the types of opportunities the indicator is designed to identify: short duration moves driven by positioning and psychology, not long-term narratives. A one-day gain of 5.5% may not sound groundbreaking, but several such gains will add up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些是該指標旨在識別的機會類型：由定位和心理驅動的短期波動，而不是長期敍述。一天內 5.5% 的收益可能聽起來並不驚人，但幾次這樣的收益會累積起來。</p>
</div><p>This framework can feel uncomfortable for those conditioned to believe that understanding a company deeply is required to trade it successfully. But trading is not about conviction. It is about execution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於那些習慣於相信深入理解一家公司是成功交易所必需的人來説，這種框架可能會讓人感到不適。但交易並不是關於信念，而是關於執行。</p>
</div><p>Profit and loss matter more than predictions. That is not cynicism. It is discipline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利潤和損失比預測更重要。這不是憤世嫉俗，而是紀律。</p>
</div><p>A new paradigm does not dismiss innovation or business fundamentals. It recognizes that markets move on emotion, expectations, and positioning long before outcomes are known. Measuring those forces directly is often more reliable than trying to outthink them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個新的範式並不否定創新或商業基本面。它認識到市場在結果已知之前就會基於情緒、預期和定位而波動。直接測量這些力量通常比試圖超越它們更可靠。</p>
</div><p>That is the framework I trade from. And it is the foundation of the indicator I rely on every day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是我交易的框架。這也是我每天依賴的指標的基礎。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者：</em></p>
</div><p>This Trading Edge Ignores Headlines And Preserves Your Gains</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種交易優勢忽視頭條新聞並保護您的收益</p>
</div><p>Unlock Trading Edges Hidden Inside Market Chaos</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解鎖隱藏在市場混亂中的交易優勢</p>
</div><p>This Subtle Shift In Volatility Reveals New Opportunities</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種微妙的波動性變化揭示了新的機會</p>
</div>

交易者的新模式