<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png"/></p>
<p>俄羅斯盧布在今年表現出色，即使原油和天然氣價格大幅下跌。美元/盧布匯率交易在 77.20，較去年 11 月的最高點下跌了 35%。</p>
<h2>俄羅斯盧布為何飆升</h2>
<p>在唐納德·特朗普於 2024 年當選後，俄羅斯盧布飆升，因為投資者仍然希望他能談判達成結束烏克蘭戰爭的協議。</p>
<p>儘管戰爭仍在繼續，三方仍在進行談判，預計到 2026 年底停火的可能性已上升至 46%。</p>
<p>任何協議都將包含解除美國對俄羅斯制裁的條款，這一舉措將有利於經濟。</p>
<p>美元/盧布匯率的下跌也與俄羅斯中央銀行的行動有關，該行維持的利率高於其他國家，創造了良好的套利交易機會。</p>
<p>在最近一次會議上，銀行將利率削減至 16%，因為通脹降至 5.8%。因此，外匯交易者借入便宜的美元並投資於高收益的盧布已成為常態。</p>
<p>然而，主要挑戰在於，由於制裁，過去幾年投資俄羅斯資產變得困難。一旦制裁結束，這種困難可能會得到緩解。</p>
<p>由於制裁，俄羅斯對外幣的需求也減少，這使得俄羅斯盧布上漲。</p>
<p>此外，中央銀行通過銷售人民幣和黃金來替代失去的能源收入，繼續出售外幣。最近數據顯示，俄羅斯在今年前 11 個月的石油和天然氣收入下降了超過 20%。</p>
<h2>美元貶值</h2>
<p>美元/盧布匯率的下降也與美元貶值有關。在 1 月份達到 110 美元的峯值後，美元指數暴跌至 96 美元，然後穩定在 100 美元。</p>
<p>美元指數在未來幾個月可能會繼續下跌。首先，銀行暗示將在 2026 年降息，繼續幾個月前開始的週期。</p>
<p>降息的幅度可能會更大，因為唐納德·特朗普暗示他只會任命準備降息的美聯儲官員。一個激進的鴿派美聯儲將對美元產生看跌影響。</p>
<h2>美元/盧布技術分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="579" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>美元/盧布圖表 | 來源：TradingView</p>
<p>日線圖顯示，美元/盧布匯率在過去幾個月承壓。從 113.75 的雙頂點下跌至當前的 77.20。</p>
<p>最近，該貨幣對從 85.91 的高點下跌至當前的 77.20。它一直保持在 50 日和 100 日指數移動平均線以下。</p>
<p>該貨幣對還在 80.65 形成了一個小的雙頂形態。因此，最可能的情況是該貨幣對繼續下跌，賣方瞄準年初至今的低點 74。隨着投資者預期烏克蘭和俄羅斯之間的協議，這一回撤將加速。</p>
<p>美元/盧布預測：俄羅斯盧布飆升後接下來會怎樣？首發於 Invezz</p>

<p>俄羅斯盧布大幅上漲，美元對盧布的匯率降至 77.20，比去年 11 月的峯值下降了 35%。這一上漲歸因於對烏克蘭停火的希望、高企的俄羅斯利率以及減少的美元需求。盧布的強勢還得益於俄羅斯的外匯銷售和減少的石油與天然氣收入。預計美元對盧布的匯率將繼續下跌，可能會達到年內最低點 74</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/Trump-Putin.png"/></p>
<p>The Russian ruble has had a great performance this year, even as crude oil and natural gas plunged. The USD/RUB exchange rate was trading at 77.20, down by 35% from its highest point in November last year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>俄羅斯盧布在今年表現出色，即使原油和天然氣價格大幅下跌。美元/盧布匯率交易在 77.20，較去年 11 月的最高點下跌了 35%。</p>
</div><h2>Why the Russian ruble soared</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>俄羅斯盧布為何飆升</h2>
</div><p>The Russian ruble soared after Donald Trump’s election in 2024 as investors remained hopeful that he would negotiate a deal to end the war in Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在唐納德·特朗普於 2024 年當選後，俄羅斯盧布飆升，因為投資者仍然希望他能談判達成結束烏克蘭戰爭的協議。</p>
</div><p>While the war is still going on, the three sides have continued their negotiations, and odds of a ceasefire by the end of 2026 have jumped to 46% on Polymarket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管戰爭仍在繼續，三方仍在進行談判，預計到 2026 年底停火的可能性已上升至 46%。</p>
</div><p>Any deal will have a provision to remove the sanctions that the United States has on Russia, a move that will benefit the economy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何協議都將包含解除美國對俄羅斯制裁的條款，這一舉措將有利於經濟。</p>
</div><p>The USD/RUB has also plunged because of the actions by the Russian Central Bank, which has maintained higher interest rates than other countries, creating a good carry trade opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/盧布匯率的下跌也與俄羅斯中央銀行的行動有關，該行維持的利率高於其他國家，創造了良好的套利交易機會。</p>
</div><p>The bank slashed rates to 16% in the last meeting as inflation softened to 5.8%. As such, it has become common for forex traders to borrow cheap US dollars and invest in the high-yielding ruble.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在最近一次會議上，銀行將利率削減至 16%，因為通脹降至 5.8%。因此，外匯交易者借入便宜的美元並投資於高收益的盧布已成為常態。</p>
</div><p>The main challenge, however, is that investing in Russian assets has become difficult in the past few years because of the sanctions. This difficulty could be eased once sanctions end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，主要挑戰在於，由於制裁，過去幾年投資俄羅斯資產變得困難。一旦制裁結束，這種困難可能會得到緩解。</p>
</div><p>The Russian ruble has also jumped because of the lack of demand for foreign currency in Russia because of the sanctions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於制裁，俄羅斯對外幣的需求也減少，這使得俄羅斯盧布上漲。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, the central bank has continued to sell foreign currency through its yuan and gold sales to replace lost energy revenues. Recent data show that oil and gas revenue in Russia dropped by over 20% in the first 11 months of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，中央銀行通過銷售人民幣和黃金來替代失去的能源收入，繼續出售外幣。最近數據顯示，俄羅斯在今年前 11 個月的石油和天然氣收入下降了超過 20%。</p>
</div><h2>US dollar decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元貶值</h2>
</div><p>The USD/RUB exchange rate decline was also due to the US dollar decline <strong>.</strong> After peaking at $110 in January, the US dollar index tumbled to $96 before stabilizing at $100.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/盧布匯率的下降也與美元貶值有關。在 1 月份達到 110 美元的峯值後，美元指數暴跌至 96 美元，然後穩定在 100 美元。</p>
</div><p>There are chances that the US dollar index will continue with its downward trend in the coming months. For one, the bank has hinted that it will cut interest rates once in 2026, continuing a cycle that started a few months ago.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指數在未來幾個月可能會繼續下跌。首先，銀行暗示將在 2026 年降息，繼續幾個月前開始的週期。</p>
</div><p>The rate cuts will likely be more as Donald Trump has hinted that he will only appoint a Fed official ready to cut rates. An aggressively dovish Fed will be bearish for the US dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>降息的幅度可能會更大，因為唐納德·特朗普暗示他只會任命準備降息的美聯儲官員。一個激進的鴿派美聯儲將對美元產生看跌影響。</p>
</div><h2>USD/RUB technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美元/盧布技術分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/USDRUB-1024x579.png"/></p>
<p>USDRUB chart | Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/盧布圖表 | 來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The daily chart shows that the USD/RUB exchange rate has come under pressure in the past few months. It plunged from the double-top point at 113.75 to the current 77.20.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日線圖顯示，美元/盧布匯率在過去幾個月承壓。從 113.75 的雙頂點下跌至當前的 77.20。</p>
</div><p>Most recently, the pair moved from a high of 85.91 to the current 77.20. It has remained below the 50-day and 100-day Exponential Moving Averages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近，該貨幣對從 85.91 的高點下跌至當前的 77.20。它一直保持在 50 日和 100 日指數移動平均線以下。</p>
</div><p>The pair also formed a small double-top pattern at 80.65. Therefore, the most likely scenario is where the pair continue falling as sellers target the year-to-date low of 74. This retreat will accelerate as investors anticipate the deal between Ukraine and Russia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該貨幣對還在 80.65 形成了一個小的雙頂形態。因此，最可能的情況是該貨幣對繼續下跌，賣方瞄準年初至今的低點 74。隨着投資者預期烏克蘭和俄羅斯之間的協議，這一回撤將加速。</p>
</div><p>The post USD/RUB forecast: What next after the Russian ruble surge? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元/盧布預測：俄羅斯盧布飆升後接下來會怎樣？首發於 Invezz</p>
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美元兑盧布的預測：在俄羅斯盧布大幅上漲之後，接下來會發生什麼？