<p>雖然衞星設計和製造商 <strong>AST SpaceMobile Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTS) 今年表現強勁，但也必須指出，ASTS 股票的高度波動性可能會讓許多期權交易者感到困惑。實際上，ASTS 在極端情況下是非遍歷的。通俗來説，這意味着實際回報可能並不總是與預期的平均回報相符。</p>
<p>在期權交易中，非遍歷性常常因為增強的波動性和到期日等因素而顯露出其負面影響。在這種情況下，如果 ASTS 股票進入調整期——即使在更廣泛的牛市背景下——這對特定定義的期權交易來説可能是災難性的。這尤其殘酷，因為基礎公司正在 取得明顯的基本進展。</p>
<p>那麼，ASTS 股票為什麼會下跌呢？一些市場悲觀情緒可能與 內部人士拋售 有關。在 12 月，股權敞口的削減主要由賣方主導，無論是頻率還是金額。也有可能由於年底臨近，主要股東為了税務目的出售了股份。</p>
<p>現在，金融出版生態系統中的常見論點是，由於 AST SpaceMobile 擁有強大的業務——至少在實現衞星發射里程碑和獲得重要合同方面——其證券在情境上被低估。問題是，在足夠長的時間範圍內，這種推理可能會偶然實現，尤其是在牛市中。然而，這種常見論點也是 <em>petitio principii</em> 或者説是循環論證的一個例子。</p>
<p>基本上，結論（ASTS 股票可能會更高）被悄悄地融入了前提（市場沒有正確定價 AST SpaceMobile 的增長潛力）。實際上，前提承擔了論證的大部分工作，但這個部分卻幾乎沒有受到質疑。</p>
<p>畢竟，各位作者怎麼知道 ASTS 股票確實被錯誤定價呢？這是我想要探討的問題。</p>
<h2>確定 ASTS 股票的風險幾何以做出更好的交易決策</h2>
<p>正如你可能想象的那樣，我也認為 ASTS 股票目前被錯誤定價。然而，這是一種大膽的説法，不能僅憑權威來認可。作為此時的分析師，我需要提出一個合理的論據來支持這一錯誤定價的説法。</p>
<p>首先，我們必須量化我們所説的錯誤定價，以便進行測量並分配概率。使用 “被低估” 或 “強大機會” 等術語是修辭上的修飾，但它們是無界的，無法量化。價格走勢也是無界的，因為理論上 ASTS 股票可以無限上漲。這就是我 將價格走勢離散化為有界類別 的原因，分為 “上漲周” 和 “下跌周”。</p>
<p>其次，考慮分層框架是至關重要的。如果我們取一段 ASTS 股票價格數據的 10 周，期間的回報不會告訴我們數據集中其他周的表現概率。但如果我們進行數百次滾動的 10 周試驗，並將其堆疊在固定時間分佈中呢？此時，最頻繁、一致的行為將形成概率質量的凸起。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="422" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>這些凸起代表風險幾何，部分顯示了市場買家的上升看漲情緒。更重要的是，風險幾何揭示了買家可能轉變為賣家的臨界點。通過計算這個結構，我們知道可以在哪裏施壓——以及應該在哪裏退縮。</p>
<p>在正常情況下，從當前價格（大約 $72）計算的 10 週迴報將使峯值概率密度約為 $71.75，從而表明負偏見。然而，錯誤定價的原因在於，在過去的 10 週中，ASTS 股票呈現出 4-6-D 序列。在上述期間，ASTS 僅產生了四個上漲周，導致下行趨勢。</p>
<p>根據這個設置，未來 10 周的範圍可能在 $62 到 $92 之間，峯值概率密度出現在 $76 到 $81 之間。有效地説，這大約是 8.71% 的結構性套利。</p>
<h2>概率衰減定義交易理念</h2>
<p>根據上述市場情報，我認為最突出的交易是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 75/80 看漲期權價差。這筆交易需要支付淨借記 $210，這也是可能損失的最大金額。如果 ASTS 股票在到期時突破 $80 行權價，最大利潤為 $290，回報超過 138%。盈虧平衡點為 $77.10，使得交易更加可口。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>當然，我喜歡 75/80 看漲期權價差的主要原因是峯值概率密度概念。在接下來的 10 周內，ASTS 股票最有可能在 $76 到 $81 之間波動。並不是説超出這個範圍的價格不可實現；只是由於概率衰減的加速，這些價格實現的可能性較小。</p>
<p>考慮到在 $80 到 $85 之間，概率密度下降了 71.34%。在 $85 到 $90 之間，密度再次下降了 92.18%。換句話説，如果我們確信 ASTS 股票不會達到 $85 以上，那麼購買超出 $85 的結果並沒有太大意義。</p>
<p>隨後，牛市看漲價差使我們能夠購買與我們認為合理的概率曲線相關的溢價，同時允許我們出售其餘不太可能實現的曲線。這樣，我們就能買入現實，賣出幻想。</p>
<p><strong><em>本內容中表達的觀點和看法僅代表個人作者的意見，並不一定反映 Benzinga 的觀點。Benzinga 對本文所提供信息的準確性或可靠性不承擔任何責任。本內容僅供信息參考，不應被誤解為投資建議或買賣任何證券的推薦。讀者被要求不要依賴本文中的觀點或信息，並在做出投資決策之前自行進行盡職調查。</em></strong></p>
<p><strong>接下來閲讀：</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>期權角落：被低估的 Pinterest 股票為短期反彈提供了一個有趣的案例</strong></li>
</ul>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

ASTS

<p>本文討論了 AST SpaceMobile Inc（NASDAQ:ASTS）的股票波動性和內部人士賣出，暗示可能存在定價錯誤。儘管基本面有所進展，ASTS 股票仍面臨市場的悲觀情緒。作者提出了一種交易策略，即在 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 75/80 牛市看漲期權價差，強調如果股票價格超過 80 美元，可能獲得 138% 的收益。分析強調了風險幾何和概率密度，以指導交易決策</p>

<p>While satellite designer and manufacturer <strong>AST SpaceMobile Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTS) has been one of the strongest performers this year, it's also fair to point out that the highly kinetic movements of ASTS stock can throw many options traders off. Essentially, ASTS is non-ergodic to the extreme. Colloquially, this means that the actual return may not always match the expected average return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然衞星設計和製造商 <strong>AST SpaceMobile Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: ASTS) 今年表現強勁，但也必須指出，ASTS 股票的高度波動性可能會讓許多期權交易者感到困惑。實際上，ASTS 在極端情況下是非遍歷的。通俗來説，這意味着實際回報可能並不總是與預期的平均回報相符。</p>
</div><p>With options trading, non-ergodicity often rears its ugly head because of elements such as enhanced volatility and expiration dates. In this case, if ASTS stock enters a corrective period — even within the context of a broader bull market — it can be catastrophic for a specifically defined options trade. That can be quite cruel, especially because the underlying company is making clear fundamental progress.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在期權交易中，非遍歷性常常因為增強的波動性和到期日等因素而顯露出其負面影響。在這種情況下，如果 ASTS 股票進入調整期——即使在更廣泛的牛市背景下——這對特定定義的期權交易來説可能是災難性的。這尤其殘酷，因為基礎公司正在 取得明顯的基本進展。</p>
</div><p>Why, then, is ASTS stock tumbling? Some of the market pessimism could be tied to insider selling. In December, equity exposure trimming has been dominated by sellers, both in terms of frequency and dollar amount. It's also quite possible that, due to the end of the year coming up, major stakeholders sold shares for tax purposes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼，ASTS 股票為什麼會下跌呢？一些市場悲觀情緒可能與 內部人士拋售 有關。在 12 月，股權敞口的削減主要由賣方主導，無論是頻率還是金額。也有可能由於年底臨近，主要股東為了税務目的出售了股份。</p>
</div><p>Now, the common argument within the financial publication ecosystem is that, because AST SpaceMobile features a strong business — at least in terms of achieving satellite launch milestones and securing important contracts — its security is contextually undervalued. The thing is, over a long enough time horizon, such reasoning can coincidentally come true, especially in a bull market. However, this common argument is also an example of <em>petitio principii</em> or begging the question.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，金融出版生態系統中的常見論點是，由於 AST SpaceMobile 擁有強大的業務——至少在實現衞星發射里程碑和獲得重要合同方面——其證券在情境上被低估。問題是，在足夠長的時間範圍內，這種推理可能會偶然實現，尤其是在牛市中。然而，這種常見論點也是 <em>petitio principii</em> 或者説是循環論證的一個例子。</p>
</div><p>Basically, the conclusion (that ASTS stock will likely rise higher) is smuggled into the premise (that the market is not properly pricing in AST SpaceMobile's growth potential). In effect, the premise does all the heavy lifting of the argument yet it is also this component that receives little to no interrogation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基本上，結論（ASTS 股票可能會更高）被悄悄地融入了前提（市場沒有正確定價 AST SpaceMobile 的增長潛力）。實際上，前提承擔了論證的大部分工作，但這個部分卻幾乎沒有受到質疑。</p>
</div><p>After all, how do the various authors know that ASTS stock is truly mispriced? This is the question that I'd like to address.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>畢竟，各位作者怎麼知道 ASTS 股票確實被錯誤定價呢？這是我想要探討的問題。</p>
</div><h2>Identifying The Risk Geometry Of ASTS Stock To Make Better Trading Decisions</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>確定 ASTS 股票的風險幾何以做出更好的交易決策</h2>
</div><p>As you might imagine, I also believe that ASTS stock is currently mispriced. However, that's a bold statement and it cannot just be granted authority by fiat. Being the analyst at this hour, I need to present a sound argument for the alleged mispricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你可能想象的那樣，我也認為 ASTS 股票目前被錯誤定價。然而，這是一種大膽的説法，不能僅憑權威來認可。作為此時的分析師，我需要提出一個合理的論據來支持這一錯誤定價的説法。</p>
</div><p>First, we must quantify what we mean by mispricing in order to measure it and to assign probabilities. Using terms like &#34;undervalued&#34; or &#34;strong opportunity&#34; are rhetorical embellishments but they're unbounded and cannot be quantified. Price action is also unbounded because ASTS stock can theoretically go to infinity. This is the reason why I discretize price action into bounded categories of &#34;up weeks&#34; and &#34;down weeks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，我們必須量化我們所説的錯誤定價，以便進行測量並分配概率。使用 “被低估” 或 “強大機會” 等術語是修辭上的修飾，但它們是無界的，無法量化。價格走勢也是無界的，因為理論上 ASTS 股票可以無限上漲。這就是我 將價格走勢離散化為有界類別 的原因，分為 “上漲周” 和 “下跌周”。</p>
</div><p>Second, it's critical to think in hierarchical frameworks. If we took a single 10-week strand of ASTS stock price data, the return during this period won't tell us anything about the probability of performance of the other weeks in the dataset. But what if we took hundreds of rolling 10-week trials and stacked them in a fixed-time distribution? At that point, the most frequent, consistent behaviors will create bulges in probability mass.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，考慮分層框架是至關重要的。如果我們取一段 ASTS 股票價格數據的 10 周，期間的回報不會告訴我們數據集中其他周的表現概率。但如果我們進行數百次滾動的 10 周試驗，並將其堆疊在固定時間分佈中呢？此時，最頻繁、一致的行為將形成概率質量的凸起。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130431/ASTS-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>These bulges represent risk geometry, which in part shows the ascending bullish emotions of market buyers. More importantly, risk geometry reveals the transition point where buyers are tempted to become sellers. By calculating this structure, we know where we can push — and where we should back off.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些凸起代表風險幾何，部分顯示了市場買家的上升看漲情緒。更重要的是，風險幾何揭示了買家可能轉變為賣家的臨界點。通過計算這個結構，我們知道可以在哪裏施壓——以及應該在哪裏退縮。</p>
</div><p>Under normal circumstances, 10-week returns from the current price (roughly $72) would place peak probability density at around $71.75, thus indicating a negative bias. However, the mispricing comes from the fact that in the trailing 10 weeks, ASTS stock has printed a 4-6-D sequence. In the aforementioned period, ASTS only generated four up weeks, leading to a downward slope.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在正常情況下，從當前價格（大約 $72）計算的 10 週迴報將使峯值概率密度約為 $71.75，從而表明負偏見。然而，錯誤定價的原因在於，在過去的 10 週中，ASTS 股票呈現出 4-6-D 序列。在上述期間，ASTS 僅產生了四個上漲周，導致下行趨勢。</p>
</div><p>From this setup, the forward 10-week range would likely land between $62 and $92, with peak probability density materializing between $76 and $81. Effectively, that's a structural arbitrage of approximately 8.71%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據這個設置，未來 10 周的範圍可能在 $62 到 $92 之間，峯值概率密度出現在 $76 到 $81 之間。有效地説，這大約是 8.71% 的結構性套利。</p>
</div><h2>Probability Decay Defines The Trade Idea</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>概率衰減定義交易理念</h2>
</div><p>With the market intelligence above, the one trade that stands out to me is the 75/80 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. This wager requires a net debit paid of $210, which is also the most that can be lost. Should ASTS stock rise through the $80 strike at expiration, the maximum profit clocks in at $290, a payout of over 138%. Breakeven lands at $77.10, making the trade even more palatable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據上述市場情報，我認為最突出的交易是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 75/80 看漲期權價差。這筆交易需要支付淨借記 $210，這也是可能損失的最大金額。如果 ASTS 股票在到期時突破 $80 行權價，最大利潤為 $290，回報超過 138%。盈虧平衡點為 $77.10，使得交易更加可口。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/26130412/ASTS-stock-L10-probability-density-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Of course, the main reason why I like the 75/80 call spread is the peak probability density concept. Over the next 10 weeks, ASTS stock should most likely traverse the range between $76 through $81. It's not that prices beyond this range are not achievable; it's just these prices are less likely to materialize due to the acceleration of probability decay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，我喜歡 75/80 看漲期權價差的主要原因是峯值概率密度概念。在接下來的 10 周內，ASTS 股票最有可能在 $76 到 $81 之間波動。並不是説超出這個範圍的價格不可實現；只是由於概率衰減的加速，這些價格實現的可能性較小。</p>
</div><p>Consider that between $80 and $85, probability density drops by 71.34%. Between $85 and $90, density again plunges by 92.18%. Put another way, it doesn't make much sense to buy exposure to outcomes beyond $85 if we are convinced that ASTS stock won't get there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到在 $80 到 $85 之間，概率密度下降了 71.34%。在 $85 到 $90 之間，密度再次下降了 92.18%。換句話説，如果我們確信 ASTS 股票不會達到 $85 以上，那麼購買超出 $85 的結果並沒有太大意義。</p>
</div><p>Subsequently, the bull call spread allows us to buy the premiums associated with the probability curve that makes sense to us while allowing us to sell the rest of the curve that is less likely to materialize. This way, we buy reality and sell the fantasy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨後，牛市看漲價差使我們能夠購買與我們認為合理的概率曲線相關的溢價，同時允許我們出售其餘不太可能實現的曲線。這樣，我們就能買入現實，賣出幻想。</p>
</div><p><strong><em>The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>本內容中表達的觀點和看法僅代表個人作者的意見，並不一定反映 Benzinga 的觀點。Benzinga 對本文所提供信息的準確性或可靠性不承擔任何責任。本內容僅供信息參考，不應被誤解為投資建議或買賣任何證券的推薦。讀者被要求不要依賴本文中的觀點或信息，並在做出投資決策之前自行進行盡職調查。</em></strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Read Next:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>接下來閲讀：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Options Corner: Deflated Pinterest Stock Presents An Intriguing Case For A Near-Term Comeback</strong></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>期權角落：被低估的 Pinterest 股票為短期反彈提供了一個有趣的案例</strong></li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

期權專欄：從 AST SpaceMobile 股票中獲取利潤（而非假設）