<p>比特幣目前正處於近期歷史上最深的修正之一。</p>
<p>這世界上最大的加密貨幣已從最高點 126,000 美元跌至 100,000 美元以下——這是它大約一年前首次突破的閾值。根據最新報道，其估值接近 87,000 美元，市場情緒最近保持脆弱，多項指標暗示圖表上存在進一步下行風險。</p>
<h2>分形模式指向更深的下跌</h2>
<p>根據比特幣重複週期指標，該指標歷史上準確追蹤了資產的牛市和熊市階段，比特幣終於進入了熊市區域。</p>
<p>該模式正確識別了 10 月 10 日的市場峯值及其隨後的下跌。根據這一分析，熊市階段可能會持續到 2026 年 10 月 16 日。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>根據 João Wedson 的説法，分形模型預測潛在底部在 40,000 美元到 45,000 美元之間。然而，他警告説，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“這不是固定規則，也不是確定的價格預測。它代表了市場週期的分形韻律——比特幣歷史上更常尊重這一點，而不是忽視。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>不過，這種下跌的可能性仍然備受爭議。事實上，幾位分析師認為，比特幣的四年週期——長期以來被視為主要市場波動的驅動因素——已經大幅減弱或完全消失。</p>
<h2>歷史背景——小幅修正還是重大週期？</h2>
<p>比特幣的 [BTC] 當前走勢與基於四年模式的 2021 年週期密切相關。然而，歷史數據也突顯了一個重要的區別。</p>
<p>在比特幣的歷史上，小幅修正階段通常保持在 35% 的下跌範圍內。然而，2021 年的熊市則不同。特別是因為它代表了一次重大週期修正，最終使比特幣從 69,000 美元的峯值下跌了 77%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>比特幣當前從 126,000 美元的 32% 回撤落在這些小幅修正的典型範圍內。</p>
<p>這意味着下跌可能接近其自然底部。然而，如果分形預測準確，比特幣跌至 40,000 美元至 45,000 美元區間，總下跌幅度將達到 64% 至 68%。這將表明一次重大週期修正，而不是小幅回調。</p>
<h2>為什麼這次可能不同</h2>
<p>不過，關鍵的鏈外指標表明如此極端的走勢不太可能。</p>
<p>例如——累積/分配（A/D）趨勢未顯示出強烈的賣壓跡象。在 2021 年，比特幣的下跌與明顯的分配相吻合，因為鏈外交易量從 980 萬 BTC 降至大約 400 萬 BTC。</p>
<p>相反，目前的交易量幾乎沒有變化——僅從 1763 萬 BTC 滑落至 1752 萬 BTC。這一發現未能確認重大分配階段。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>來源：TradingView</p>
<p>移動平均收斂發散（MACD）似乎也傳達了一個更微妙的故事。</p>
<p>儘管仍然發出看跌信號，但 MACD 直方圖已從深紅色轉變為較淺的色調——這一過渡通常預示着看漲的恢復。</p>
<h2>機構差異是什麼？</h2>
<p>自 2021 年以來，全球經濟條件發生了顯著變化，特別是在主權和機構參與方面。</p>
<p>比特幣的採用已變得更加主流。這可以通過在包括美國和香港在內的主要司法管轄區批准和推出現貨比特幣 ETF 來證明。</p>
<p>僅美國的機構需求就推動了約 1165.8 億美元流入加密貨幣。同時，全球 M2 貨幣供應量也擴展至約 147 萬億美元。</p>
<p>歷史上，這種流動性擴張流入風險資產——這一動態可能實質性支持比特幣的恢復，並挑戰看跌的分形敍事。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>重複的分形模式似乎表明比特幣在接下來的十個月可能保持看跌狀態。</em></li>
<li><em>不斷增長的機構需求和擴大的全球流動性可能會抵消下行壓力。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣的分形模式暗示到 2026 年可能會下跌至 40,000 至 45,000 美元，表明一個重大週期修正。然而，分析師們對這一下跌的可能性存在爭議，指出四年週期的減弱和鏈外指標的穩定。機構需求和全球流動性擴張可能會抵消看跌壓力，挑戰分形敍述</p>

<p>Bitcoin is in the middle of one of its deepest corrections in recent history right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣目前正處於近期歷史上最深的修正之一。</p>
</div><p>The world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen from an ATH of $126,000 to below $100,000 – A threshold it first crossed roughly a year ago. Valued at close to $87k at press time, the market sentiment has remained fragile lately, with multiple indicators hinting at further downside risk on the charts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這世界上最大的加密貨幣已從最高點 126,000 美元跌至 100,000 美元以下——這是它大約一年前首次突破的閾值。根據最新報道，其估值接近 87,000 美元，市場情緒最近保持脆弱，多項指標暗示圖表上存在進一步下行風險。</p>
</div><h2>Fractal pattern points to deeper decline</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>分形模式指向更深的下跌</h2>
</div><p>According to the Bitcoin Repeating Cycle indicator that has historically tracked the asset’s bullish and bearish phases with notable accuracy, Bitcoin has finally entered bearish territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據比特幣重複週期指標，該指標歷史上準確追蹤了資產的牛市和熊市階段，比特幣終於進入了熊市區域。</p>
</div><p>The pattern correctly identified the 10 October market peak and its subsequent decline. Based on this analysis, the bearish phase could extend until 16 October, 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該模式正確識別了 10 月 10 日的市場峯值及其隨後的下跌。根據這一分析，熊市階段可能會持續到 2026 年 10 月 16 日。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/G9GWP33XAAA5XxW-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>According to João Wedson, the fractal model projects a potential bottom between $40,000 and $45,000. However, he cautioned,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 João Wedson 的説法，分形模型預測潛在底部在 40,000 美元到 45,000 美元之間。然而，他警告説，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“This is not a fixed rule, nor a deterministic price forecast. It represents a fractal rhyme of market cycles—something Bitcoin has historically respected more often than ignored.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“這不是固定規則，也不是確定的價格預測。它代表了市場週期的分形韻律——比特幣歷史上更常尊重這一點，而不是忽視。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>The likelihood of such a decline remains hotly debated though. In fact, several analysts contend that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle—long considered a driver of major market swings—has weakened considerably or disappeared entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，這種下跌的可能性仍然備受爭議。事實上，幾位分析師認為，比特幣的四年週期——長期以來被視為主要市場波動的驅動因素——已經大幅減弱或完全消失。</p>
</div><h2>Historical context – Minor correction or major cycle?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>歷史背景——小幅修正還是重大週期？</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] prevailing movement tracks closely with the 2021 cycle based on the four-year pattern. However, historical data also highlighted an important distinction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的 [BTC] 當前走勢與基於四年模式的 2021 年週期密切相關。然而，歷史數據也突顯了一個重要的區別。</p>
</div><p>Throughout Bitcoin’s history, minor corrective phases have typically remained within a 35% decline range. The 2021 bear market was different though. Especially since it represented a major cycle correction that ultimately shed 77% from Bitcoin’s $69,000-peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在比特幣的歷史上，小幅修正階段通常保持在 35% 的下跌範圍內。然而，2021 年的熊市則不同。特別是因為它代表了一次重大週期修正，最終使比特幣從 69,000 美元的峯值下跌了 77%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_07-52-59.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s current 32% retracement from $126,000 falls within the typical range of these minor corrections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣當前從 126,000 美元的 32% 回撤落在這些小幅修正的典型範圍內。</p>
</div><p>This means the decline may be nearing its natural bottom. However, if the fractal projection proves accurate and Bitcoin drops to the $40,000–$45,000 range, the total decline would reach 64% to 68%. This would be indicative of a major cycle correction, rather than a minor pullback.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着下跌可能接近其自然底部。然而，如果分形預測準確，比特幣跌至 40,000 美元至 45,000 美元區間，總下跌幅度將達到 64% 至 68%。這將表明一次重大週期修正，而不是小幅回調。</p>
</div><h2>Why this time may be different</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼這次可能不同</h2>
</div><p>Key off-chain metrics suggest such an extreme move is less likely though.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，關鍵的鏈外指標表明如此極端的走勢不太可能。</p>
</div><p>For example – The Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) trend revealed no strong signs of aggressive selling pressure. In 2021, Bitcoin’s decline coincided with clear distribution as off-chain volume fell from 9.8 million BTC to roughly 4 million BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如——累積/分配（A/D）趨勢未顯示出強烈的賣壓跡象。在 2021 年，比特幣的下跌與明顯的分配相吻合，因為鏈外交易量從 980 萬 BTC 降至大約 400 萬 BTC。</p>
</div><p>On the contrary, the current traded volume has barely budged – Slipping only from 17.63 million BTC to 17.52 million BTC. This finding fails to confirm a major distribution phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，目前的交易量幾乎沒有變化——僅從 1763 萬 BTC 滑落至 1752 萬 BTC。這一發現未能確認重大分配階段。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/BTCUSDT_2025-12-27_08-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>Source: TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：TradingView</p>
</div><p>The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also seemed to relay a more nuanced story.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>移動平均收斂發散（MACD）似乎也傳達了一個更微妙的故事。</p>
</div><p>While still flashing bearish signals, the MACD histogram has shifted from deep red to lighter shades – A transition that often precedes bullish recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管仍然發出看跌信號，但 MACD 直方圖已從深紅色轉變為較淺的色調——這一過渡通常預示着看漲的恢復。</p>
</div><h2>What is the institutional difference?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>機構差異是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>Global economic conditions have shifted meaningfully since 2021, particularly regarding sovereign and institutional participation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自 2021 年以來，全球經濟條件發生了顯著變化，特別是在主權和機構參與方面。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin adoption has become more mainstream. This can be evidenced by the approval and launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in major jurisdictions including the United States and Hong Kong.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的採用已變得更加主流。這可以通過在包括美國和香港在內的主要司法管轄區批准和推出現貨比特幣 ETF 來證明。</p>
</div><p>U.S institutional demand alone has driven an estimated $116.58 billion into the crypto. Meanwhile, global M2 money supply has expanded to approximately $147 trillion as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>僅美國的機構需求就推動了約 1165.8 億美元流入加密貨幣。同時，全球 M2 貨幣供應量也擴展至約 147 萬億美元。</p>
</div><p>Historically, such liquidity expansion flows into risk assets – A dynamic that could materially support Bitcoin’s recovery and challenge the bearish fractal narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，這種流動性擴張流入風險資產——這一動態可能實質性支持比特幣的恢復，並挑戰看跌的分形敍事。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>A repeating fractal pattern seemed to suggest Bitcoin may remain bearish for the next ten months.</em></li>
<li><em>Growing institutional demand and expanding global liquidity could counterbalance downside pressure.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>重複的分形模式似乎表明比特幣在接下來的十個月可能保持看跌狀態。</em></li>
<li><em>不斷增長的機構需求和擴大的全球流動性可能會抵消下行壓力。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特幣的分形預測顯示，到 2026 年價格將達到 45,000 美元，但圖表並不認同這一預測！