<p>以太坊在 12 月大部分時間都處於壓力之下，最近跌破 3000 美元的情況在投資者的持倉上留下了明顯的痕跡。</p>
<p>鏈上數據現在顯示網絡的盈利能力顯著惡化，持有盈利的 ETH 供應比例降至 60% 以下。同時，機構需求也有所減少，Glassnode 的數據表明，零售盈利能力和機構參與以太坊的情況同時減弱。</p>
<p><strong>以太坊盈利供應比例降至 60% 以下</strong></p>
<p>以太坊盈利供應比例的下降是以太坊壓力的最明顯信號之一。以太坊的投資者已經陷入更深的虧損，這反映了最近的價格走勢。</p>
<p>談到價格走勢，以太坊在 12 月 22 日最初重新奪回了 3000 美元的價格水平。在此期間，持有盈利的 ETH 供應比例重新回升至 60% 以上，最高達到 63%。然而，這一突破僅持續了很短的時間，價格在幾個小時後又跌回 3000 美元以下。</p>
<p>當 ETH 再次跌破 3000 美元時，持有未實現收益的供應比例降至 60% 以下，較 12 月初的 70% 以上有所下降。這一下降表明，回調不僅限於最近的買家，已經開始影響到本月初積累的投資者。</p>
<p><em>ETH 盈利供應比例。來源：Glassnode</em></p>
<p><strong>ETF 淨流出表明機構參與減弱</strong></p>
<p>鏈上盈利能力和價格走勢的疲軟也反映了 ETF 市場的趨勢。Glassnode 的另一項數據指標顯示，自 11 月初以來，美國現貨以太坊 ETF 的 30 天移動平均淨流量已轉為負值並保持在此水平。這種持續的流出表明機構交易者的參與和脱離處於低迷階段。</p>
<p>下面的 ETF 圖表顯示，支持以太坊在 8 月創下新高的資金流入已經減弱，取而代之的是 11 月和 12 月的持續流出。這對價格走勢至關重要，因為 ETF 需求一直是增量買入的關鍵來源。隨着這一買盤的減弱，以太坊在吸收賣方壓力方面遇到了困難，導致其未能維持在 3000 美元以上。</p>
<p><em>ETH：美國現貨 ETF 淨流量。來源：Glassnode</em></p>
<p>負的 ETF 淨流量與以太坊最近的價格行為相結合，有助於解釋未實現虧損的上升。有趣的是，各種鏈上數據來源還揭示了不同的鯨魚地址在現貨 ETF 之外減少其對以太坊的敞口。</p>
<p>例如，Lookonchain 最近強調了一筆被認為與 Erik Voorhees 相關的錢包的活動，該錢包在過去兩週內將 4619 ETH（價值約 1342 萬美元）兑換成比特幣現金（BCH），而在此之前該錢包已近九年未活躍。Voorhees 後來回應澄清該錢包並不屬於他，他也不持有任何比特幣現金。</p>
<p>Lookonchain 還指出了 BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 的賣壓，他在過去一週內總共拋售了 1871 ETH，價值約 553 萬美元。</p>
<p><em>圖片來自 Unsplash，圖表來自 TradingView</em></p>

ETHE

<p>以太坊價格跌破 3000 美元導致投資者損失加劇，盈利能力降至 60% 以下。機構需求減少，自 11 月以來，ETF 淨流出呈現負值。鏈上數據顯示鯨魚地址減少了持倉，進一步加大了賣方壓力。這一下降反映出零售和機構參與的減弱，影響了以太坊維持其價格水平的能力</p>

<p>Ethereum has spent much of December under pressure, and the recent fall below $3,000 has left a visible mark on investor positioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊在 12 月大部分時間都處於壓力之下，最近跌破 3000 美元的情況在投資者的持倉上留下了明顯的痕跡。</p>
</div><p>On-chain data now shows a notable deterioration in profitability across the network, with the share of ETH supply sitting in profit falling below 60%. At the same time, institutional demand has decreased, with data from Glassnode showing how both retail profitability and institutional participation in Ethereum have weakened simultaneously.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鏈上數據現在顯示網絡的盈利能力顯著惡化，持有盈利的 ETH 供應比例降至 60% 以下。同時，機構需求也有所減少，Glassnode 的數據表明，零售盈利能力和機構參與以太坊的情況同時減弱。</p>
</div><p><strong>Ethereum’s Percent Supply In Profit Falls Below 60%</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>以太坊盈利供應比例降至 60% 以下</strong></p>
</div><p>The drop in Ethereum’s percent supply in profit has been one of the clearest signals of stress for Ethereum. Ethereum’s investors have fallen into deeper losses, and this is a reflection of recent price action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊盈利供應比例的下降是以太坊壓力的最明顯信號之一。以太坊的投資者已經陷入更深的虧損，這反映了最近的價格走勢。</p>
</div><p>Speaking of price action, Ethereum had initially reclaimed the $3,000 price level on December 22. During this time, the percentage of ETH supply in profit pushed back above 60% and reached as high as 63%. However, this break was for only a very brief time, and price action fell back below $3,000 after just a few hours.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>談到價格走勢，以太坊在 12 月 22 日最初重新奪回了 3000 美元的價格水平。在此期間，持有盈利的 ETH 供應比例重新回升至 60% 以上，最高達到 63%。然而，這一突破僅持續了很短的時間，價格在幾個小時後又跌回 3000 美元以下。</p>
</div><p>As ETH broke below $3,000 again, the share of supply held at unrealized gains fell under 60%, down from above 70% earlier in December. This fall shows that the pullback has not been limited to recent buyers but has begun to impact investors who accumulated during the beginning of the month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當 ETH 再次跌破 3000 美元時，持有未實現收益的供應比例降至 60% 以下，較 12 月初的 70% 以上有所下降。這一下降表明，回調不僅限於最近的買家，已經開始影響到本月初積累的投資者。</p>
</div><p><em>ETH Percent Supply In Profit. Source: Glassnode</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>ETH 盈利供應比例。來源：Glassnode</em></p>
</div><p><strong>ETF Net Outflows Indicate Waning Institutional Participation</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>ETF 淨流出表明機構參與減弱</strong></p>
</div><p>The weakness in on-chain profitability and price action is also a reflection of trends in the ETF market. Another data metric from Glassnode shows that since early November, the 30-day moving average of net flows into US Spot Ethereum ETFs has turned negative and remained there. This persistence of outflows points to a phase of muted participation and disengagement from institutional traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鏈上盈利能力和價格走勢的疲軟也反映了 ETF 市場的趨勢。Glassnode 的另一項數據指標顯示，自 11 月初以來，美國現貨以太坊 ETF 的 30 天移動平均淨流量已轉為負值並保持在此水平。這種持續的流出表明機構交易者的參與和脱離處於低迷階段。</p>
</div><p>The ETF chart below shows that inflows, which supported Ethereum’s push to new all-time highs in August, have faded, replaced by continued outflows through November and December. This matters for price action because ETF demand has been a key source of incremental buying. As that bid has weakened, Ethereum has struggled to absorb sell-side pressure, contributing to its failure to hold above $3,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下面的 ETF 圖表顯示，支持以太坊在 8 月創下新高的資金流入已經減弱，取而代之的是 11 月和 12 月的持續流出。這對價格走勢至關重要，因為 ETF 需求一直是增量買入的關鍵來源。隨着這一買盤的減弱，以太坊在吸收賣方壓力方面遇到了困難，導致其未能維持在 3000 美元以上。</p>
</div><p><em>ETH: US Spot ETF Net Flows. Source: Glassnode</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>ETH：美國現貨 ETF 淨流量。來源：Glassnode</em></p>
</div><p>The combination of negative ETF net flows and Ethereum’s recent price behaviorhelps explain rising unrealized losses. Interestingly, various on-chain data sources also reveal different instances of whale addresses reducing their exposure to Ethereum outside of spot ETFs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>負的 ETF 淨流量與以太坊最近的價格行為相結合，有助於解釋未實現虧損的上升。有趣的是，各種鏈上數據來源還揭示了不同的鯨魚地址在現貨 ETF 之外減少其對以太坊的敞口。</p>
</div><p>For instance, Lookonchain recently highlighted activity from a wallet believed to be linked to Erik Voorhees, which swapped 4,619 ETH, valued at about $13.42 million, into Bitcoin Cash (BCH) over the past two weeks after having been inactive for nearly nine years. Voorhees later responded by clarifying that the wallet does not belong to him and that he does not hold any Bitcoin Cash.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，Lookonchain 最近強調了一筆被認為與 Erik Voorhees 相關的錢包的活動，該錢包在過去兩週內將 4619 ETH（價值約 1342 萬美元）兑換成比特幣現金（BCH），而在此之前該錢包已近九年未活躍。Voorhees 後來回應澄清該錢包並不屬於他，他也不持有任何比特幣現金。</p>
</div><p>Lookonchain also pointed to selling pressure from Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, who has offloaded a total of 1,871 ETH at about $5.53 million in the past week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Lookonchain 還指出了 BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 的賣壓，他在過去一週內總共拋售了 1871 ETH，價值約 553 萬美元。</p>
</div><p><em>Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來自 Unsplash，圖表來自 TradingView</em></p>
</div>

以太坊投資者陷入更深的虧損——跌破 3000 美元意味着什麼？