<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>銀價在波動下跌前觸及每盎司 80 美元</li>
<li>本週關注美聯儲會議紀要</li>
<li>美元因降息預期承壓</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
<p>週一，亞洲股市達到六週來的最高點，而美元在近三個月來的最低點附近徘徊，市場預期美聯儲明年將降息，這也引發了貴金屬的激烈反彈。</p>
<p>銀價在週一首次突破每盎司 80 美元大關後，迅速在波動交易中大幅下滑，而鉑金和鈀金在創下歷史新高後也大幅下跌。黃金下跌近 1%，但由於美元疲軟、避險需求和降息預期，今年多次突破歷史高點。</p>
<p>Saxo 的首席投資策略師 Charu Chanana 表示，今年貴金屬受到降息的強勁推動和對地緣政治及財政不確定性的對沖影響。</p>
<p>“再加上供應擔憂，這一走勢變得拋物線式上升。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在銀價方面，也提高了更高波動性的風險。短期內，風險主要是技術性和頭寸驅動的。”</p>
<p>“然而，從大局來看，貴金屬的基本面仍然看起來結構性支持，未來利率將更為寬鬆，財政和地緣政治的不安，以及持續的多樣化需求。這意味着任何回調可能被視為長期投資者重建敞口的機會，” Chanana 説。</p>
<p>在美國總統唐納德·特朗普週日表示他與烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 “越來越接近，可能非常接近” 達成結束烏克蘭戰爭的協議後，地緣政治再次成為投資者關注的焦點。</p>
<p>股票年末強勁表現</p>
<p>在股票方面，MSCI 亞太地區股票指數 (.MIAP00000PUS) 上漲 0.27%，創下自 10 月 3 日以來的最高點，為年末最後一週的強勁開局。該指數今年上漲超過 25%，受科技股推動，人工智能熱潮牢牢吸引了投資者。</p>
<p>韓國 Kospi 指數上漲 1.5%，接近兩個月來的最高點，使其年度漲幅達到驚人的 74%，有望創下自 1999 年以來最強的年度漲幅。日本日經指數下跌 0.4%，而台灣股票 TWSE:TAIEX 上漲 0.3%，創下歷史新高。</p>
<p>投資者在假期縮短的一週內將關注美聯儲上次會議的紀要，預計將在週二公佈。美國中央銀行本月早些時候降息，並預計明年僅再降息一次，而交易員們已將至少兩次降息計入價格。</p>
<p>IG 的市場分析師 Tony Sycamore 表示，市場將仔細研究會議紀要，以深入瞭解委員會在風險平衡和未來寬鬆時機上的辯論。</p>
<p>然後，焦點將轉向新年即將公佈的勞動力市場數據，包括非農就業人數，Sycamore 説。</p>
<p>“如果這些報告顯示出明顯的勞動力市場疲軟，將增加美聯儲在 1 月 FOMC 會議上降息 25 個基點的可能性。”</p>
<p>疲軟的日元找到支撐</p>
<p>在日本央行 12 月政策會議的稍微鷹派意見摘要公佈後，日元兑美元上漲 0.2%，至 156.13。摘要顯示，許多董事會成員認為需要進一步提高日本央行的政策利率。</p>
<p>日本央行本月早些時候在一個充分預告的舉措中加息，但市場對隨後暗示央行不急於再次加息的評論感到失望。這對日元造成壓力，並引發交易員對干預的擔憂，因為東京的官員上週發出了強烈的口頭警告。</p>
<p>儘管如此，日元仍接近 11 月觸及的每美元 157.9 的 10 個月低點，隨着投資者削減其長期日元頭寸，干預的風險依然存在。</p>
<p>美聯儲明年降息的前景使美元承壓，而可能温和並願意降息的新美聯儲主席的陰影也籠罩着市場。</p>
<p>美元指數衡量美元對六種競爭貨幣的表現，下降 0.08%，至 97.953，預計今年將下跌 9.7%，為 2017 年以來最大跌幅。</p>

明晟

<p>亞洲股市達到六週來的最高點，貴金屬因市場對明年美聯儲降息的預期而創下紀錄水平。銀價在劇烈波動前一度達到每盎司 80 美元，而黃金和其他金屬也出現了波動。美元走弱，日元在日本央行政策討論中獲得支撐。投資者關注美聯儲會議紀要和勞動力市場數據，以獲取未來降息的線索。受科技股推動，MSCI 亞太指數上漲，而韓國的 Kospi 指數則大幅上漲。美元指數正朝着自 2017 年以來最大年度跌幅的方向發展</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Silver hits $80 per ounce before volatile drop</li>
<li>Fed minutes in focus this week</li>
<li>Dollar stays under pressure on rate cut wagers</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>銀價在波動下跌前觸及每盎司 80 美元</li>
<li>本週關注美聯儲會議紀要</li>
<li>美元因降息預期承壓</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>Asian stocks were at six-week highs on Monday, while the dollar hovered near its lowest in almost three months on expectations of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year, which have also sparked a fierce rally in precious metals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週一，亞洲股市達到六週來的最高點，而美元在近三個月來的最低點附近徘徊，市場預期美聯儲明年將降息，這也引發了貴金屬的激烈反彈。</p>
</div><p>Silver  climbed above the $80-per-ounce-mark for the first time before sliding sharply lower in volatile trading on Monday, while platinum and palladium also fell sharply after hitting all-time highs. Gold  eased nearly 1% but has repeatedly breached record highs this year on dollar weakness, safe-haven demand and rate cut wagers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>銀價在週一首次突破每盎司 80 美元大關後，迅速在波動交易中大幅下滑，而鉑金和鈀金在創下歷史新高後也大幅下跌。黃金下跌近 1%，但由於美元疲軟、避險需求和降息預期，今年多次突破歷史高點。</p>
</div><p>Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said precious metals have been lifted this year by a powerful mix of rate-cut tailwinds and hedging against geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Saxo 的首席投資策略師 Charu Chanana 表示，今年貴金屬受到降息的強勁推動和對地緣政治及財政不確定性的對沖影響。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Add supply worries and the move has turned parabolic. But the late-year, near-vertical surge, especially in silver, also raises the risk of higher volatility. Near-term, the risk is technical and positioning-led.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“再加上供應擔憂，這一走勢變得拋物線式上升。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在銀價方面，也提高了更高波動性的風險。短期內，風險主要是技術性和頭寸驅動的。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;The big picture, however, for precious metals still looks structurally supportive with easier rates ahead, fiscal and geopolitical unease, and ongoing diversification demand. That means any pullbacks may be seen as opportunities for long-term investors to rebuild exposure,&#34; Chanana said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“然而，從大局來看，貴金屬的基本面仍然看起來結構性支持，未來利率將更為寬鬆，財政和地緣政治的不安，以及持續的多樣化需求。這意味着任何回調可能被視為長期投資者重建敞口的機會，” Chanana 説。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitics was back on investors' minds after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were &#34;getting a lot closer, maybe very close&#34; to an agreement to end the war in Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國總統唐納德·特朗普週日表示他與烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 “越來越接近，可能非常接近” 達成結束烏克蘭戰爭的協議後，地緣政治再次成為投資者關注的焦點。</p>
</div><p>STRONG YEAR-END FOR STOCKS</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票年末強勁表現</p>
</div><p>In stocks, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) was 0.27% higher, hitting its highest since October 3 in a strong start to the last week of the year. The index has risen over 25% this year, boosted by technology stocks as AI mania firmly took hold of investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在股票方面，MSCI 亞太地區股票指數 (.MIAP00000PUS) 上漲 0.27%，創下自 10 月 3 日以來的最高點，為年末最後一週的強勁開局。該指數今年上漲超過 25%，受科技股推動，人工智能熱潮牢牢吸引了投資者。</p>
</div><p>South Korea's Kospi  rose 1.5% to a near two-month peak, taking its yearly gains to an eye-popping 74%, on pace for its strongest annual gain since 1999. Japan's Nikkei  slipped 0.4%, while Taiwan stocks TWSE:TAIEX rose 0.3% to a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國 Kospi 指數上漲 1.5%，接近兩個月來的最高點，使其年度漲幅達到驚人的 74%，有望創下自 1999 年以來最強的年度漲幅。日本日經指數下跌 0.4%，而台灣股票 TWSE:TAIEX 上漲 0.3%，創下歷史新高。</p>
</div><p>Investor focus on the holiday-curtailed week will be on minutes of the Fed's last meeting due on Tuesday. The U.S. central bank cut rates earlier this month and projected just one more cut for next year while traders have priced in at least two more.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投資者在假期縮短的一週內將關注美聯儲上次會議的紀要，預計將在週二公佈。美國中央銀行本月早些時候降息，並預計明年僅再降息一次，而交易員們已將至少兩次降息計入價格。</p>
</div><p>Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, said markets will scour the minutes for deeper insights into the committee debates on the balance of risks and the timing of future easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>IG 的市場分析師 Tony Sycamore 表示，市場將仔細研究會議紀要，以深入瞭解委員會在風險平衡和未來寬鬆時機上的辯論。</p>
</div><p>The spotlight will then switch over to labour market data expected in the new year including non-farm payrolls, Sycamore said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然後，焦點將轉向新年即將公佈的勞動力市場數據，包括非農就業人數，Sycamore 説。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If these reports show unambiguous labour market weakness, it will increase the likelihood that the Fed cuts rates by 25bp at its January FOMC meeting.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果這些報告顯示出明顯的勞動力市場疲軟，將增加美聯儲在 1 月 FOMC 會議上降息 25 個基點的可能性。”</p>
</div><p>FRAIL YEN FINDS SUPPORT</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲軟的日元找到支撐</p>
</div><p>The Japanese yen firmed 0.2% to 156.13 per U.S. dollar after a slightly hawkish summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan's policy meeting in December showed on Monday. The summary showed many board members seeing the need for further increases to the BOJ's policy rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本央行 12 月政策會議的稍微鷹派意見摘要公佈後，日元兑美元上漲 0.2%，至 156.13。摘要顯示，許多董事會成員認為需要進一步提高日本央行的政策利率。</p>
</div><p>The BOJ hiked interest rates earlier this month in a well-telegraphed move but markets were left disappointed by the comments afterwards that suggested the central bank was in no rush to hike again. That weighed on the yen and raised intervention worries among traders as officials in Tokyo sent strong verbal warnings last week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行本月早些時候在一個充分預告的舉措中加息，但市場對隨後暗示央行不急於再次加息的評論感到失望。這對日元造成壓力，並引發交易員對干預的擔憂，因為東京的官員上週發出了強烈的口頭警告。</p>
</div><p>Still, the yen remains close to the 10-month low of 157.9 per U.S. dollar it hit in November and the risk of intervention lurks as investors cut their long yen positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，日元仍接近 11 月觸及的每美元 157.9 的 10 個月低點，隨着投資者削減其長期日元頭寸，干預的風險依然存在。</p>
</div><p>The prospect of the Fed cutting rates next year has kept the dollar under pressure, while the spectre of a new Fed Chair that may be dovish and willing to lower rates looms large.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲明年降息的前景使美元承壓，而可能温和並願意降息的新美聯儲主席的陰影也籠罩着市場。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six rivals, was 0.08% lower at 97.953, on track for a 9.7% drop for the year, its steepest since 2017.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指數衡量美元對六種競爭貨幣的表現，下降 0.08%，至 97.953，預計今年將下跌 9.7%，為 2017 年以來最大跌幅。</p>
</div>

亞洲股市上漲，貴金屬因市場對美聯儲降息的預期而創下新高