<p>如果 Monero [XMR] 在 2025 年第四季度的趨勢重演，可能會為後期的多頭提供一個買入機會。與其他山寨幣市場一樣，聖誕節的反彈使其從 432 美元上漲了 7%，超過 460 美元。這是在比特幣主導地位略微減弱後，給山寨幣帶來的反彈。</p>
<p>然而，XMR 的反彈也伴隨着流動性不足和低交易量，如果這種情況持續到新年，可能會迅速逆轉。</p>
<p>儘管如此，這種情況可能是短期多頭的一個誘人入場點。</p>
<h2>XMR 會跌至 400-420 美元的支撐位嗎？</h2>
<p>400-420 美元區域（白色）是 2025 年 5 月的價格高峰，也是 2025 年下半年僅在 12 月中旬突破的阻力區。</p>
<p>因此，捍衞該水平作為支撐可能會為 XMR 的下一輪反彈奠定基礎。此外，價格區間與 50 日移動平均線（MA）相交。</p>
<p>在第四季度，價格曾多次反彈至 50 日 MA（白線）。因此，如果趨勢重演，價格再次觸及該水平，這可能是一個新的買入機會。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png"/></p>
<p>來源：XMR/USDT，TradingView</p>
<p>話雖如此，MACD 在撰寫時正處於死亡交叉的邊緣。這可能會將 XMR 拖低，可能會跌至移動平均線。事實上，10 月、11 月和 12 月的前幾次死亡交叉信號都在移動平均線處減弱。</p>
<p>這進一步支持了上述論點，並呼籲後期多頭保持耐心。短期目標將是 470 美元，暗示從支撐位潛在收益為 15%。</p>
<p>然而，若持續跌破 50 日移動平均線，將使該論點失效。</p>
<h2>目前市場尚未過熱…</h2>
<p>更廣泛的疲軟市場情緒可能會在 2026 年初將 XMR 壓低。然而，在撰寫時，期貨市場並未顯現出這種風險。</p>
<p>事實上，幾乎沒有零售投資者在該資產上使用槓桿——缺乏狂熱情緒，這表明 XMR 市場健康。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>過去，“過多的零售” 信號通常會伴隨回調。</p>
<p>儘管如此，XMR 的市場情緒尚未完全進入積極區域以迎接另一波上漲。事實上，在聖誕週期間，情緒主要是負面的。如果情緒恢復到積極狀態，可能會進一步增強復甦的機會。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Santiment</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>XMR 在聖誕周經歷了一次温和的反彈，但後期多頭仍可能獲得新的買入機會。</em></li>
<li><em>期貨市場健康，但市場情緒仍然疲軟，難以實現可持續的復甦。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>
<p><strong><em>免責聲明：所提供的信息不構成財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議，僅代表作者的觀點</em></strong></p>

<p>Monero (XMR) 可能為後期多頭提供買入機會，如果其 2025 年第四季度的趨勢重演。儘管最近出現反彈，XMR 面臨流動性不足和交易量低的問題，這可能會逆轉漲幅。400 到 420 美元的支撐區間與 50 日移動平均線相一致，至關重要。MACD 中的死亡交叉暗示潛在的價格下跌，但如果支撐位保持，回升至 470 美元是可能的。市場情緒依然疲軟，但期貨市場穩定。投資者應保持耐心，關注積極情緒的轉變</p>

<p>Monero [XMR] could offer late bulls a buying opportunity if its Q4 2025 trend repeats itself. Like the rest of the altcoin market, the Santa rally lifted it by 7% from $432 to over $460. This followed a slight easing in Bitcoin dominance that offered a relief rally for altcoins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Monero [XMR] 在 2025 年第四季度的趨勢重演，可能會為後期的多頭提供一個買入機會。與其他山寨幣市場一樣，聖誕節的反彈使其從 432 美元上漲了 7%，超過 460 美元。這是在比特幣主導地位略微減弱後，給山寨幣帶來的反彈。</p>
</div><p>However, XMR’s bounce also came with thin liquidity and low trading volumes, and could be quickly reversed if the conditions persist into the new year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，XMR 的反彈也伴隨着流動性不足和低交易量，如果這種情況持續到新年，可能會迅速逆轉。</p>
</div><p>Still, such a scenario could be a juicy entry point for near-term bulls.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，這種情況可能是短期多頭的一個誘人入場點。</p>
</div><h2>Will XMR drop to $400-$420 support?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>XMR 會跌至 400-420 美元的支撐位嗎？</h2>
</div><p>The $400-$420 area (white) was a May price peak and a resistance zone in H2 2025 that was only cleared in mid-December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>400-420 美元區域（白色）是 2025 年 5 月的價格高峰，也是 2025 年下半年僅在 12 月中旬突破的阻力區。</p>
</div><p>As such, defending the level as support could set XMR for the next leg of its rally. Additionally, the price zone converged with the 50-day Moving Average (MA).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，捍衞該水平作為支撐可能會為 XMR 的下一輪反彈奠定基礎。此外，價格區間與 50 日移動平均線（MA）相交。</p>
</div><p>Throughout Q4, the price bounced off the 50-day MA (white line). So, if the trend repeats itself and the price tag hits the level again, this could be a new buying opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第四季度，價格曾多次反彈至 50 日 MA（白線）。因此，如果趨勢重演，價格再次觸及該水平，這可能是一個新的買入機會。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/XMRUSD_2025-12-28_16-33-36.png"/></p>
<p>Source: XMR/USDT, TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：XMR/USDT，TradingView</p>
</div><p>That being said, the MACD was on the verge of a Death Cross at press time. This could drag XMR lower, likely to the Moving Average. In fact, the previous Death Cross signals in October, November, and December all eased at the Moving Average.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>話雖如此，MACD 在撰寫時正處於死亡交叉的邊緣。這可能會將 XMR 拖低，可能會跌至移動平均線。事實上，10 月、11 月和 12 月的前幾次死亡交叉信號都在移動平均線處減弱。</p>
</div><p>This further supported the aforementioned thesis and calls for patience for late bulls. The immediate target would be $470, alluding to potential gains of 15% from the support level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這進一步支持了上述論點，並呼籲後期多頭保持耐心。短期目標將是 470 美元，暗示從支撐位潛在收益為 15%。</p>
</div><p>However, a sustained drop below the 50-day Moving Average would invalidate the thesis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，若持續跌破 50 日移動平均線，將使該論點失效。</p>
</div><h2>No overheated market yet…</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>目前市場尚未過熱…</h2>
</div><p>A broader weak market sentiment could send XMR lower in early 2026. However, such a risk was not evident on the Futures market at the time of writing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>更廣泛的疲軟市場情緒可能會在 2026 年初將 XMR 壓低。然而，在撰寫時，期貨市場並未顯現出這種風險。</p>
</div><p>In fact, there haven’t been many retail investors jumping on the asset with leverage – A lack of euphoria that underlined a healthy market for XMR.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，幾乎沒有零售投資者在該資產上使用槓桿——缺乏狂熱情緒，這表明 XMR 市場健康。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-Futures-Retail-Activity-Through-Trading-Frequency-Surge.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>In the past, ‘too many retail’ signals were followed by a retracement.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去，“過多的零售” 信號通常會伴隨回調。</p>
</div><p>Still, XMR’s market sentiment has not been fully into the positive territory for another upswing. In fact, the sentiment has been predominantly negative during the Christmas week. If it resets to positive, it could further bolster recovery odds.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，XMR 的市場情緒尚未完全進入積極區域以迎接另一波上漲。事實上，在聖誕週期間，情緒主要是負面的。如果情緒恢復到積極狀態，可能會進一步增強復甦的機會。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Monero-XMR-17.41.16-28-Dec-2025.png"/></p>
<p>Source: Santiment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Santiment</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>XMR saw a modest rally during Christmas week, but late bulls could still get a new buying opportunity.</em></li>
<li><em>The Futures market was healthy, but market sentiment has remained weak for a sustainable recovery.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>XMR 在聖誕周經歷了一次温和的反彈，但後期多頭仍可能獲得新的買入機會。</em></li>
<li><em>期貨市場健康，但市場情緒仍然疲軟，難以實現可持續的復甦。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong><em>Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>免責聲明：所提供的信息不構成財務、投資、交易或其他類型的建議，僅代表作者的觀點</em></strong></p>
</div>

門羅幣——為什麼 XMR 的買家應該等待這個潛在的機會