<p>（更新早期歐洲交易的價格）</p><p>由於烏克蘭和平協議的不確定性，貴金屬波動</p><p>本週美聯儲會議紀要成為焦點，交易員思考美國利率前景</p><p>美元在降息預期下持續承壓</p><p>作者：Naomi Rovnick 和 Ankur Banerjee</p><p>倫敦/新加坡，12 月 29 日（路透社）- 全球股市在週一有望以創紀錄的高點結束 2025 年，而美元徘徊在近三個月來的最低點，反映出投資者對明年美聯儲進一步降息的預期。摩根士丹利全球股票指數（MIWO00000PUS）在早期歐洲交易中持平，市場評估美國總統唐納德·特朗普關於他與烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 “越來越接近” 達成結束烏克蘭戰爭協議的評論。</p><p>這使得全球股票基準在年初至今的漲幅接近 21%，在華爾街（.SPX）上週五創下歷史新高後，歐洲股市（.STOXX）在週一早盤觸及盤中歷史新高。</p><h3 id="wwjw0u62h">投資者不願意打壓可能的人工智能泡沫</h3><p>隨着年末的臨近，投資者仍然預期美國利率將下降，並且在貨幣政策保持支持的情況下不願意拋售潛在的人工智能股票泡沫。他們還增加了對避險金的投資，以對沖他們的看漲押注。</p><p>“我們並沒有看到失控的通脹風險作為基本情況，因此我們仍然認為美聯儲有降息的空間，” 富達國際多資產投資組合經理秦貝基説。</p><p>“所以你仍然可以為風險資產的合理強勁背景建立一個論點。” 投資者在週一對貴金屬進行了部分獲利了結。黃金（XAU=）下跌 1.1%，至每盎司 4484 美元，但仍有望實現自 1979 年以來最大的年度漲幅，漲幅超過 70%。白銀（XAG=）在週一的波動交易中首次突破每盎司 80 美元的關口，隨後回落至 76.14 美元。Saxo 的首席投資策略師 Charu Chanana 表示，貴金屬今年受到降息順風和對地緣政治及財政不確定性對沖的推動。</p><p>“再加上供應擔憂，這一走勢變得拋物線。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在白銀方面，也提高了更高波動性的風險。短期內，風險主要是技術性和定位驅動的，” Chanana 説。</p><p>倫敦金屬交易所的三個月期銅（CMCU3）上漲 3.27%，至每公噸 12560 美元，週一早些時候曾創下 12960 美元的紀錄。</p><p>美國總統表示烏克蘭談判是積極的，週一特朗普在佛羅里達州與澤連斯基會面，稱這次會談是積極的，儘管尚未達成任何關於實現烏克蘭和平的協議。</p><p>與此同時，中國軍方週一在台灣周圍調動陸軍、海軍、空軍和炮兵部隊進行 “正義使命 2025” 演習，台灣表示將捍衞其民主。</p><p>摩根士丹利亞太股票指數（.MIAP00000PUS）週一上漲 0.4%，在年末最後一週強勁開局。大多數亞洲市場在 2025 年錄得兩位數的漲幅，市場押注於人工智能的前景，並擱置了對貿易關税影響的擔憂。</p><p>韓國 Kospi 指數（.KS11）週一上漲 2.2%，有望實現自 1999 年以來的最佳年度表現，投資者將他們的人工智能押注擴展到華爾街以外，這一趨勢也使得台灣股市（.TWII）年初至今上漲 25%。</p><p>在這個假期縮短的一週中，投資者的關注將轉向週二美聯儲最新會議紀要的發佈。</p><p>美國中央銀行本月將主要聯邦基金利率下調至 3.5%-3.75% 的區間，貨幣市場預計到 9 月份將再降兩次 25 個基點。特朗普上週表示，接替即將離任的美聯儲主席傑伊·鮑威爾的人選不會是與他意見不合的人。</p><h3 id="evvu6gto">美元疲軟，脆弱的日元找到支撐</h3><p>美元（=USD）在週一對包括歐元和日元在內的一籃子主要貨幣持平，接近自 10 月以來的最低水平。日元（JPY=）上漲 0.3%，至每美元 156.14，在日本央行 12 月政策會議的意見摘要中，許多董事會成員認為需要進一步加息以遏制通脹，這為日元提供了一些支撐。</p><p>在 12 月 19 日跌至 157.78 後，這為日元提供了一些支撐，促使市場預期日本央行將進行干預。</p><p>在週一的固定收益市場中，烏克蘭的不確定性支撐了歐元區政府債券，10 年期德國國債收益率幾乎下降了 3 個基點，降至約 2.84%（DE10YT=RR），基準債務工具的價格上漲。然而，考慮到刺激支出承諾和歐洲央行強烈信號表明其降息週期已接近尾聲，該德國收益率有望在年末結束時上漲約 50 個基點。基準國債收益率（US10YT=RR）下降 3 個基點，略高於 4.1%。</p><p>布倫特原油期貨（LCoc1）在波動交易中上漲 1%，至每桶 61.26 美元，此前在特朗普與澤連斯基會談前下跌超過 2%。</p><p>閃閃發光的並非全是黃金：白銀引領貴金屬反彈</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e92e5755b62fc15a87e251bc0f8168ce?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="2392" height="994" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/e92e5755b62fc15a87e251bc0f8168ce"/></figure><p>韓國股市在 2025 年引領亞洲</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/17806d7431f3f36db06c060c73366c94?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1672" height="1042" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/17806d7431f3f36db06c060c73366c94"/></figure>

<p>全球股市有望在 2025 年以創紀錄的高點收盤，主要受到美聯儲降息預期的推動。MSCI 全球股票指數保持平穩，市場對地緣政治發展作出反應，包括美國總統特朗普與烏克蘭總統澤連斯基之間的積極對話。貴金屬市場波動較大，黃金略微下跌，但仍有望實現顯著的年度漲幅。投資者對潛在的人工智能股票泡沫保持謹慎，同時增加對避險資產的配置。美元持續承壓，市場關注即將發佈的美聯儲會議紀要，以獲取有關貨幣政策的進一步信息</p>

<p>(Updates prices with early European trading)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（更新早期歐洲交易的價格）</p>
</div><p>Precious metals volatile on Ukraine peace deal uncertainty</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於烏克蘭和平協議的不確定性，貴金屬波動</p>
</div><p>Fed minutes in focus this week as traders ponder US rates outlook</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週美聯儲會議紀要成為焦點，交易員思考美國利率前景</p>
</div><p>Dollar stays under pressure on rate cut wagers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元在降息預期下持續承壓</p>
</div><p>By Naomi Rovnick and Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Naomi Rovnick 和 Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>LONDON/SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - Global stocks were on track to end 2025 at record highs on Monday, while the dollar hovered near its lowest in almost three months, reflecting investors’ expectations of further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts next year. The MSCI’s world equity gauge (MIWO00000PUS) was flat in early European trading as markets assessed comments from U.S. President Donald Trump that he and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy were getting “a lot closer” to a deal that could end the Ukraine war.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦/新加坡，12 月 29 日（路透社）- 全球股市在週一有望以創紀錄的高點結束 2025 年，而美元徘徊在近三個月來的最低點，反映出投資者對明年美聯儲進一步降息的預期。摩根士丹利全球股票指數（MIWO00000PUS）在早期歐洲交易中持平，市場評估美國總統唐納德·特朗普關於他與烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 “越來越接近” 達成結束烏克蘭戰爭協議的評論。</p>
</div><p>That left the global stock benchmark with an almost 21% year-to-date gain after Wall Street (.SPX) hit a record high on Friday and European shares (.STOXX) touched an intraday record high in early trades on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這使得全球股票基準在年初至今的漲幅接近 21%，在華爾街（.SPX）上週五創下歷史新高後，歐洲股市（.STOXX）在週一早盤觸及盤中歷史新高。</p>
</div><h3>INVESTORS ARE RELUCTANT TO DEFLATE POSSIBLE AI BUBBLE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>投資者不願意打壓可能的人工智能泡沫</h3>
</div><p>As the year ends, investors retain expectations U.S. rates will fall and are reluctant to sell out of a potential bubble in AI stocks as long as monetary policy remains supportive. They have also increased their exposure to safe-haven gold to hedge their bullish bets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着年末的臨近，投資者仍然預期美國利率將下降，並且在貨幣政策保持支持的情況下不願意拋售潛在的人工智能股票泡沫。他們還增加了對避險金的投資，以對沖他們的看漲押注。</p>
</div><p>“We’re not seeing runaway inflation risk as a base case so we’re still thinking the Fed has room to cut,” Fidelity International multi-asset portfolio manager Becky Qin said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們並沒有看到失控的通脹風險作為基本情況，因此我們仍然認為美聯儲有降息的空間，” 富達國際多資產投資組合經理秦貝基説。</p>
</div><p>“So you can still build a case for a reasonably strong backdrop for risk assets.” Investors took some profits on precious metals on Monday. Gold (XAU=) dropped 1.1% to $4,484 an ounce but stayed on track for its biggest annual gain since 1979 with a rise of over 70%. Silver (XAG=) climbed above the $80-per-ounce-mark for the first time in volatile trading on Monday before dropping back to $76.14. Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo, said precious metals have been lifted this year by a mix of rate-cut tailwinds and hedging against geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“所以你仍然可以為風險資產的合理強勁背景建立一個論點。” 投資者在週一對貴金屬進行了部分獲利了結。黃金（XAU=）下跌 1.1%，至每盎司 4484 美元，但仍有望實現自 1979 年以來最大的年度漲幅，漲幅超過 70%。白銀（XAG=）在週一的波動交易中首次突破每盎司 80 美元的關口，隨後回落至 76.14 美元。Saxo 的首席投資策略師 Charu Chanana 表示，貴金屬今年受到降息順風和對地緣政治及財政不確定性對沖的推動。</p>
</div><p>“Add supply worries and the move has turned parabolic. But the late-year, near-vertical surge, especially in silver, also raises the risk of higher volatility. Near-term, the risk is technical and positioning-led,” Chanana said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“再加上供應擔憂，這一走勢變得拋物線。但年末的近乎垂直的激增，尤其是在白銀方面，也提高了更高波動性的風險。短期內，風險主要是技術性和定位驅動的，” Chanana 説。</p>
</div><p>Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (CMCU3) was 3.27% higher at $12,560 per metric ton, having set a record of $12,960 earlier on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦金屬交易所的三個月期銅（CMCU3）上漲 3.27%，至每公噸 12560 美元，週一早些時候曾創下 12960 美元的紀錄。</p>
</div><p>US PRESIDENT SAYS UKRAINE TALKS ARE POSITIVE Geopolitics was in focus on Monday after Trump met Zelenskiy in Florida for what the U.S. President described as positive talks, although no agreement on bringing peace to Ukraine has yet been reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國總統表示烏克蘭談判是積極的，週一特朗普在佛羅里達州與澤連斯基會面，稱這次會談是積極的，儘管尚未達成任何關於實現烏克蘭和平的協議。</p>
</div><p>China’s military, meanwhile, moved army, naval, air force and artillery units around Taiwan on Monday for its “Justice Mission 2025” drills, as the island said it would defend its democracy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，中國軍方週一在台灣周圍調動陸軍、海軍、空軍和炮兵部隊進行 “正義使命 2025” 演習，台灣表示將捍衞其民主。</p>
</div><p>MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) was 0.4% higher on Monday in a strong start to the final week of the year. Most Asian markets have recorded double-digit gains for 2025 as markets bet on the prospects for AI and set aside concerns about the impact of trade tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利亞太股票指數（.MIAP00000PUS）週一上漲 0.4%，在年末最後一週強勁開局。大多數亞洲市場在 2025 年錄得兩位數的漲幅，市場押注於人工智能的前景，並擱置了對貿易關税影響的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>South Korea’s Kospi (.KS11) rose 2.2% on Monday, on pace for its best year since 1999 after investors spread their AI bets beyond Wall Street in a trend that has also lifted Taiwanese equities (.TWII) 25% higher year-to-date.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國 Kospi 指數（.KS11）週一上漲 2.2%，有望實現自 1999 年以來的最佳年度表現，投資者將他們的人工智能押注擴展到華爾街以外，這一趨勢也使得台灣股市（.TWII）年初至今上漲 25%。</p>
</div><p>The focus of investors in this holiday-shortened week will turn on Tuesday to the publication of the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這個假期縮短的一週中，投資者的關注將轉向週二美聯儲最新會議紀要的發佈。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. central bank cut its main funds rate to a range of 3.5%-3.75% this month and money markets are pricing two further quarter-point cuts by September. Trump, who favours lower borrowing costs, said last week that the replacement for outgoing Fed chair Jay Powell would not be anyone who disagrees with him.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國中央銀行本月將主要聯邦基金利率下調至 3.5%-3.75% 的區間，貨幣市場預計到 9 月份將再降兩次 25 個基點。特朗普上週表示，接替即將離任的美聯儲主席傑伊·鮑威爾的人選不會是與他意見不合的人。</p>
</div><h3>DOLLAR FLAILS AS FRAIL YEN FINDS SUPPORT</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>美元疲軟，脆弱的日元找到支撐</h3>
</div><p>The dollar (=USD) , flat against a basket of major currencies including the euro and the Japanese yen on Monday, stuck close to its weakest level since October. The yen (JPY=) firmed 0.3% to 156.14 per U.S. dollar after a summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting in December showed many board members saw the need for further rate hikes to contain inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元（=USD）在週一對包括歐元和日元在內的一籃子主要貨幣持平，接近自 10 月以來的最低水平。日元（JPY=）上漲 0.3%，至每美元 156.14，在日本央行 12 月政策會議的意見摘要中，許多董事會成員認為需要進一步加息以遏制通脹，這為日元提供了一些支撐。</p>
</div><p>That offered some support for the Japanese currency after it slid to 157.78 on December 19, prompting expectations of BoJ intervention.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月 19 日跌至 157.78 後，這為日元提供了一些支撐，促使市場預期日本央行將進行干預。</p>
</div><p>In fixed income markets on Monday, Ukraine uncertainty supported euro zone government bonds, with 10-year German Bund yields edging almost 3 basis points lower to around 2.84% (DE10YT=RR) as the prices of the benchmark debt instruments firmed. That German yield was on track to end the year about 50 bps higher, however, following stimulus spending pledges and the European Central Bank’s strong signals that its rate-cutting cycle has drawn to a close. Benchmark Treasury yields (US10YT=RR) were 3 bps lower at just over 4.1%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在週一的固定收益市場中，烏克蘭的不確定性支撐了歐元區政府債券，10 年期德國國債收益率幾乎下降了 3 個基點，降至約 2.84%（DE10YT=RR），基準債務工具的價格上漲。然而，考慮到刺激支出承諾和歐洲央行強烈信號表明其降息週期已接近尾聲，該德國收益率有望在年末結束時上漲約 50 個基點。基準國債收益率（US10YT=RR）下降 3 個基點，略高於 4.1%。</p>
</div><p>Brent Crude futures (LCoc1) rose 1% to $61.26 a barrel in volatile trading, having dropped more than 2% on Friday ahead of Trump and Zelenskiy’s talks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油期貨（LCoc1）在波動交易中上漲 1%，至每桶 61.26 美元，此前在特朗普與澤連斯基會談前下跌超過 2%。</p>
</div><p>All that glitters is not gold: Silver leads precious metals rally charge</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閃閃發光的並非全是黃金：白銀引領貴金屬反彈</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-PRECIOUS/znpnqqbdkvl/chart.png"/></p>
<p>South Korean stocks lead the charge for Asia in 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國股市在 2025 年引領亞洲</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/lgvdqqkmepo/chart.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.reuters.com/graphics/GLOBAL-MARKETS/lgvdqqkmepo/chart.png"/></p>

全球市場：股票因美聯儲降息預期而有望創下年終紀錄