<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZkcHI9MSZ3PTUwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="500" height="333" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZkcHI9MSZ3PTUwMA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>隨着年末的臨近，我發現回顧過去 12 個月中讀者最感興趣的內容是很有意義的。</p>
<p>與往年一樣，這並不是對 2025 年發生的所有事件的回顧。相反，我將重温五篇閲讀量最高的 Frank Talks，並簡要分析這些最初的觀點在年內的發展情況。讓我們開始吧！</p>
<h3><strong>5.</strong> <strong>7000 美元黃金的理由</strong></h3>
<p><em>9 月 29 日</em></p>
<p>當這篇 Frank Talk 在 9 月發佈時，黃金的交易價格已經達到了歷史高點，受到中央銀行購買、地緣政治風險和強勁的 ETF 流入等因素的推動。</p>
<p>自那時以來，這些因素只會加劇。全球債務已擴大至 346 萬億美元，世界各地的緊張局勢升級，對財政剋制的信心也在下降。</p>
<p>就在上週，這種黃色金屬首次突破了每盎司 4500 美元；與此同時，白銀和鉑金的漲幅也是數十年來最強勁的。</p>
<p>我仍然預測黃金將達到 7000 美元，這是我們可能在特朗普總統第二任期結束前的某個時刻看到的里程碑。和往常一樣，我建議將 10% 的資產配置在實物黃金和黃金礦業股票之間均勻分配。</p>
<h3><strong>4.</strong> <strong>值得關注的航空航天與國防股票：美國最大的承包商按收入排名</strong></h3>
<p><em>1 月 13 日</em></p>
<p>在這篇 Frank Talk 中，我根據收入對美國最大的國防承包商進行了排名，洛克希德·馬丁公司（Lockheed Martin LMT）以驚人的 650 億美元位居榜首。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png"/></p>
<p>在今年年初，全球緊張局勢上升，但國防支出仍在討論中。我當時認為，無論政治如何，美國及其盟友都在致力於長期的軍事現代化，這將影響到工業基礎。</p>
<p>隨着年內形勢的發展，這一論點獲得了更多動力，本月，特朗普總統簽署了 2026 年國家防禦授權法案，加速對導彈防禦、太空系統、網絡安全、人工智能等領域的支出。該法案還包括多年合同和更快的採購流程。</p>
<h3><strong>3.</strong> <strong>SpaceX、Palantir 和 Anduril 引領建設特朗普金色穹頂的競賽</strong></h3>
<p><em>4 月 28 日</em></p>
<p>當我在 4 月寫到特朗普的金色穹頂時，該項目仍然更多是概念而非現實……至今仍然如此。美國繼續探索一種下一代導彈防禦系統，該系統在很大程度上依賴於基於太空的激光和其他新興技術。</p>
<p>今天，獨立估計表明金色穹頂的成本可能遠高於預期——彭博社將其估計為超過 1 萬億美元，接近特朗普早期 1750 億美元估算的六倍，數百家公司已被邀請參與早期階段的提案。</p>
<p>該系統是否最終能實現其雄心尚待觀察，但我會繼續關注這個項目。</p>
<h3><strong>2.</strong> <strong>美國十大最繁忙機場</strong></h3>
<p><em>8 月 20 日</em></p>
<p>正如你們中的許多人所知，我在機場花費了很多時間，這使得這是我最喜歡寫的 Frank Talk 之一。毫無意外，哈茨菲爾德 - 傑克遜亞特蘭大國際機場是美國最繁忙的機場，僅在這個夏天就接待了 3800 萬人次。</p>
<p>在 2025 年，乘客數量持續攀升，就在上週，交通安全管理局（TSA）宣佈正在為創紀錄的假期旅行做準備。預計在 12 月 19 日至 1 月 4 日期間，將有 4430 萬乘客在美國機場接受安檢。</p>
<p>與此同時，機場繼續在航站樓、登機口和安全設施上投資數十億美元，以反映對日益增長需求的預期。</p>
<h3><strong>1.</strong> <strong>關税的驚人歷史及其在美國經濟政策中的作用</strong></h3>
<p><em>2 月 10 日</em></p>
<p>2025 年閲讀量最高的 Frank Talk 回顧了過去，以理解現在，或許還有未來。</p>
<p>我追溯了關税從作為美國政府主要收入來源的歷史角色到特朗普目前將其作為政策和談判工具的使用。在這篇 Frank Talk 撰寫時，政府的關税增加正處於自第二次世界大戰以來的最大規模。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png"/></p>
<p>隨着年內的推進，這些對進口的税收變得更加重要，無論從經濟、政治還是法律的角度來看。企業和消費者都承擔了更高的成本，而法院的挑戰也對其合法性提出了質疑。本月早些時候，CBS 新聞報道，如果最高法院對政府不利，政府可能會欠企業高達 1680 億美元。</p>
<p>這篇 Frank Talk 的受歡迎程度告訴我，投資者希望理解貿易政策如何融入更廣泛的經濟框架，以及這對通貨膨脹、供應鏈和最終市場的影響。</p>
<p>和往常一樣，我撰寫 Frank Talk 的目標是幫助大家理解全球市場發生的事情。我很感激你們繼續與我一起閲讀和思考。</p>
<p>祝願未來的一年充滿深思和繁榮！</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
<p>無人談論的柴油衝擊</p>
<p>隨着人工智能數據中心推動全球供應接近危機水平，銅價上漲加速</p>
<p>儘管經濟擔憂，美國人在黑色星期五花費了創紀錄的 118 億美元</p>

<p>這篇文章回顧了 2025 年最受關注的五大市場觀點，突出了關鍵見解和預測。文章討論了由於全球緊張局勢和債務上升，黃金可能達到 7000 美元的潛力，美國國防承包商在軍事開支增加的背景下的增長，以及特朗普的金色圓頂導彈防禦系統的持續發展。此外，文章還提到美國機場的乘客量激增以及關税對經濟的重大影響，反映出投資者對貿易政策對通貨膨脹和市場影響的關注</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZkcHI9MSZ3PTUwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/267582/pexels-photo-267582.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;dpr=1&amp;w=500"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>As the year draws to a close, I find it useful to revisit what resonated most with readers over the past 12 months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着年末的臨近，我發現回顧過去 12 個月中讀者最感興趣的內容是很有意義的。</p>
</div><p>As in past years, this isn’t a recap of everything that happened in 2025. Instead, I’m revisiting the five most-read Frank Talks based on views, while offering a brief perspective on how those original ideas held up as the year unfolded. Let’s dive in!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與往年一樣，這並不是對 2025 年發生的所有事件的回顧。相反，我將重温五篇閲讀量最高的 Frank Talks，並簡要分析這些最初的觀點在年內的發展情況。讓我們開始吧！</p>
</div><h3><strong>5.</strong> <strong>The Case for $7,000 Gold</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>5.</strong> <strong>7000 美元黃金的理由</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>September 29</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>9 月 29 日</em></p>
</div><p>When this Frank Talk came out in September, gold was already trading at historic highs, driven by forces such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks and strong ETF inflows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當這篇 Frank Talk 在 9 月發佈時，黃金的交易價格已經達到了歷史高點，受到中央銀行購買、地緣政治風險和強勁的 ETF 流入等因素的推動。</p>
</div><p>Since then, those forces have only intensified. Global debt has expanded to $346 trillion, tensions around the world have escalated and confidence in fiscal restraint has eroded.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那時以來，這些因素只會加劇。全球債務已擴大至 346 萬億美元，世界各地的緊張局勢升級，對財政剋制的信心也在下降。</p>
</div><p>Just last week, the yellow metal broke through $4,500 an ounce for the first time ever; meanwhile, silver and platinum have posted some of their strongest gains in decades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>就在上週，這種黃色金屬首次突破了每盎司 4500 美元；與此同時，白銀和鉑金的漲幅也是數十年來最強勁的。</p>
</div><p>I still predict $7,000 gold, a milestone we may see at some point before the end of President Donald Trump’s second term. As always, I recommend a 10% weighting, split evenly between physical bullion and gold mining equities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我仍然預測黃金將達到 7000 美元，這是我們可能在特朗普總統第二任期結束前的某個時刻看到的里程碑。和往常一樣，我建議將 10% 的資產配置在實物黃金和黃金礦業股票之間均勻分配。</p>
</div><h3><strong>4.</strong> <strong>Aerospace &amp; Defense Stocks to Watch: The Biggest U.S. Contractors by Revenue</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>4.</strong> <strong>值得關注的航空航天與國防股票：美國最大的承包商按收入排名</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>January 13</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>1 月 13 日</em></p>
</div><p>In this Frank Talk, I ranked the largest U.S. defense contractors by revenue, with Lockheed Martin LMT taking the top spot with a mind-boggling $65 billion in 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這篇 Frank Talk 中，我根據收入對美國最大的國防承包商進行了排名，洛克希德·馬丁公司（Lockheed Martin LMT）以驚人的 650 億美元位居榜首。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/01/COMM-top-10-defense-contractors-01102025.png"/></p>
<p>At the start of this year, global tensions were rising, but defense spending was still being debated. I argued then that, regardless of politics, the U.S. and its allies were committing to long-term military modernization, and that would flow through to the industrial base.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在今年年初，全球緊張局勢上升，但國防支出仍在討論中。我當時認為，無論政治如何，美國及其盟友都在致力於長期的軍事現代化，這將影響到工業基礎。</p>
</div><p>That thesis gained more momentum as the year went on, and this month, President Trump signed the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which accelerates spending on missile defense, space systems, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence (AI) and more. Multiyear contracts and faster acquisition pipelines are also included in the legislation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着年內形勢的發展，這一論點獲得了更多動力，本月，特朗普總統簽署了 2026 年國家防禦授權法案，加速對導彈防禦、太空系統、網絡安全、人工智能等領域的支出。該法案還包括多年合同和更快的採購流程。</p>
</div><h3><strong>3.</strong> <strong>SpaceX, Palantir and Anduril Lead the Race to Build Trump’s Golden Dome</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>3.</strong> <strong>SpaceX、Palantir 和 Anduril 引領建設特朗普金色穹頂的競賽</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>April 28</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>4 月 28 日</em></p>
</div><p>When I wrote about Trump’s Golden Dome in April, the program was still more concept than reality… as it remains to this day. The U.S. continues to explore a next-generation missile defense system that relies heavily on space-based lasers and other emerging technologies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當我在 4 月寫到特朗普的金色穹頂時，該項目仍然更多是概念而非現實……至今仍然如此。美國繼續探索一種下一代導彈防禦系統，該系統在很大程度上依賴於基於太空的激光和其他新興技術。</p>
</div><p>Today, independent estimates suggest costs for the Golden Dome may be far higher than projected—Bloomberg puts it at over $1 trillion, close to six times more than Trump’s early estimate of $175 billion—and hundreds of companies have been invited to participate in early-stage proposals.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，獨立估計表明金色穹頂的成本可能遠高於預期——彭博社將其估計為超過 1 萬億美元，接近特朗普早期 1750 億美元估算的六倍，數百家公司已被邀請參與早期階段的提案。</p>
</div><p>Whether the system ultimately meets its ambitions remains to be seen, but I will keep my eyes on the project.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該系統是否最終能實現其雄心尚待觀察，但我會繼續關注這個項目。</p>
</div><h3><strong>2.</strong> <strong>America’s Top 10 Busiest Airports</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2.</strong> <strong>美國十大最繁忙機場</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>August 20</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>8 月 20 日</em></p>
</div><p>As many of you know, I spend a lot of time in airports, making this one of my favorite Frank Talks to write. Surprising no one, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport was America’s busiest airport, serving a whopping 38 million people this past summer alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正如你們中的許多人所知，我在機場花費了很多時間，這使得這是我最喜歡寫的 Frank Talk 之一。毫無意外，哈茨菲爾德 - 傑克遜亞特蘭大國際機場是美國最繁忙的機場，僅在這個夏天就接待了 3800 萬人次。</p>
</div><p>Throughout 2025, passenger volumes have continued to climb, and just last week, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) announced it’s preparing for record-breaking holiday travel. A massive 44.3 million passengers are expected to be screened at U.S. airports between December 19 through January 4.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年，乘客數量持續攀升，就在上週，交通安全管理局（TSA）宣佈正在為創紀錄的假期旅行做準備。預計在 12 月 19 日至 1 月 4 日期間，將有 4430 萬乘客在美國機場接受安檢。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, airports continue to invest billions in terminals, gates and security, reflecting anticipation for growing demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，機場繼續在航站樓、登機口和安全設施上投資數十億美元，以反映對日益增長需求的預期。</p>
</div><h3><strong>1.</strong> <strong>The Surprising History of Tariffs and Their Role in U.S. Economic Policy</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>1.</strong> <strong>關税的驚人歷史及其在美國經濟政策中的作用</strong></h3>
</div><p><em>February 10</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>2 月 10 日</em></p>
</div><p>The most-read Frank Talk of 2025 looked backward to understand the present and, perhaps, the future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年閲讀量最高的 Frank Talk 回顧了過去，以理解現在，或許還有未來。</p>
</div><p>I traced tariffs from their historical role as a primary source of U.S. government revenue to Trump’s current use of them as a policy and negotiating tool. At the time of this Frank Talk’s writing, the administration’s tariff increases were on track to be the largest since World War II.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我追溯了關税從作為美國政府主要收入來源的歷史角色到特朗普目前將其作為政策和談判工具的使用。在這篇 Frank Talk 撰寫時，政府的關税增加正處於自第二次世界大戰以來的最大規模。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png" alt="" original-src="https://www.usfunds.com/app/uploads/2025/02/COMM-trump-tariff-02072025.png"/></p>
<p>As the year has progressed, these taxes on imports have become even more consequential, whether looked at from an economic, political or legal point of view. Businesses and consumers have absorbed the higher costs, while court challenges have raised questions about their legality. Earlier this month, CBS News reported that the U.S. government could owe businesses as much as $168 billion if the Supreme Court rules against the administration.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着年內的推進，這些對進口的税收變得更加重要，無論從經濟、政治還是法律的角度來看。企業和消費者都承擔了更高的成本，而法院的挑戰也對其合法性提出了質疑。本月早些時候，CBS 新聞報道，如果最高法院對政府不利，政府可能會欠企業高達 1680 億美元。</p>
</div><p>The popularity of this Frank Talk tells me that investors want to understand how trade policy fits into a broader economic framework, and what that means for inflation, supply chains and, ultimately, markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇 Frank Talk 的受歡迎程度告訴我，投資者希望理解貿易政策如何融入更廣泛的經濟框架，以及這對通貨膨脹、供應鏈和最終市場的影響。</p>
</div><p>As always, my goal with Frank Talk is to help make sense of what’s happening in markets around the world. I’m grateful you continue to read and think alongside me.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>和往常一樣，我撰寫 Frank Talk 的目標是幫助大家理解全球市場發生的事情。我很感激你們繼續與我一起閲讀和思考。</p>
</div><p>Here’s to a thoughtful and prosperous year ahead!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>祝願未來的一年充滿深思和繁榮！</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
</div><p>The Diesel Shock No One Is Talking About</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>無人談論的柴油衝擊</p>
</div><p>Copper Rally Is Accelerating As AI Data Centers Push Global Supply Toward Crisis Levels</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着人工智能數據中心推動全球供應接近危機水平，銅價上漲加速</p>
</div><p>Americans Spent A Record $11.8 Billion On Black Friday Despite Economic Worries</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管經濟擔憂，美國人在黑色星期五花費了創紀錄的 118 億美元</p>
</div>