<p><strong>TradingKey</strong> - 與比特幣價格波動類似，原油市場在 2025 年經歷了兩次 “過山車” 表現，分別在 1 月和 6 月大幅上漲。然而，原油價格總體呈下降趨勢，過去一年累計 <strong>暴跌超過 20%。</strong> 具體而言，WTI 原油（USOIL）下跌了 22.36%，而布倫特原油（UKOIL）下降了 20.53%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png"/></p>
<p>布倫特原油、WTI 原油百分比變化，來源：TradingView。</p>
<p>2025 年原油價格的顯著波動主要受到供需失衡的影響，這種失衡是由全球經濟疲軟、不穩定的 OPEC 產量、美國能源政策和地緣政治衝突等多種因素或事件驅動的。隨着 2026 年的臨近，投資者預計油價將會回升；然而，<strong>原油的供需將如何演變？機構對原油價格的展望如何——是否會繼續下跌或反彈？</strong></p>
<h2>2025 年原油價格：承壓下行</h2>
<p>在 2025 年初，原油價格上漲超過 10%，達到了年內最高點。具體而言，布倫特原油上漲至每桶 83 美元，而 WTI 原油上漲至每桶 79 美元。隨後，<strong>油價從峯值持續下跌，經歷了最高 20% 的回撤，並觸及年內最低點。</strong> 在 4 月 9 日，布倫特原油跌至 58 美元的低點，WTI 原油降至 54 美元。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png"/></p>
<p>布倫特原油價格圖，來源：TradingView。</p>
<p>在 5 月 5 日，<strong>油價第二次觸底並反彈，</strong> 隨後繼續上漲。到 6 月 23 日，油價已反彈至接近年內最高點，布倫特原油接近 80 美元，WTI 原油價格上漲至 76 美元。然而，原油價格未能維持上漲，在同一天急劇下跌。一個顯著的看跌蠟燭圖開啓了隨後的逐步下跌路徑。在 12 月 16 日，<strong>原油價格第三次測試底部，但未突破 4 月創下的低點。</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png"/></p>
<p>WTI 原油價格圖，來源：TradingView。</p>
<p>可以觀察到，2025 年原油價格走勢呈現出 “下降三角形” 模式，這意味着反彈高點在下降，三次向下探測未能突破，反映出 <strong>多頭的局部強勢；然而，空頭最終佔據主導，全年主導市場。</strong></p>
<h2>影響原油價格的因素有哪些？</h2>
<p>總體而言，<strong>全球經濟增長放緩導致市場對原油的需求顯著下降，造成價格因需求減少而持續承壓。</strong> 這正是 2025 年油價下跌的主要原因之一。儘管中國作為全球第二大經濟體在 2025 年上半年大量儲備石油，每天購買數百萬桶原油，但其他主要經濟體的需求仍處於持續收縮狀態。</p>
<p>與此同時，<strong>全球石油市場出現了每日 172 萬桶（bpd）的過剩，嚴重的供給過剩進一步壓制了油價。</strong> 自 2025 年第二季度起，OPEC+ 啓動了分階段和系統的增產計劃，從最初的增產到三倍、四倍的加速增產。在兩個季度內，他們完成了 220 萬桶自願減產的撤回，導致原油供應大幅增加。此外，非 OPEC 國家也加入了增產行列，包括美國、加拿大和巴西在內的五個美洲國家在全年內將其總產量提高了多達 230 萬桶，進一步加劇了原油供應。</p>
<p>儘管原油價格總體走弱，但仍有兩個明顯的顯著上漲時期，主要受到 <strong>地緣政治衝突和對俄羅斯實施的制裁的推動。</strong> 在 2025 年 1 月，拜登政府在離任前對俄羅斯實施了前所未有的制裁，將兩家主要生產商 Gazprom Neft 和 Surgutneftegas 以及其 20 多家子公司和 180 多艘船隻列入制裁名單。這一舉動立即引發了市場的風險厭惡，推動油價達到 2025 年的年度最高點。在 2025 年 6 月，伊朗與以色列之間的衝突擾亂了霍爾木茲海峽的航行，影響了全球 30% 的海上原油貿易，再次將油價推高至每桶 80 美元，再次接近年度峯值。</p>
<h2>2026 年原油供需結構將如何？</h2>
<p>國際能源署（IEA）略微上調了對 2026 年全球原油需求的預測，將其從每日 1.047 億桶（mb/d）調整為 1.048 億桶。這一預測表明需求增加了 86 萬桶，主要受到貿易關税逐漸消退和宏觀經濟條件改善的推動。在供應方面，IEA 預計 2026 年全球原油供應將增加 240 萬桶，顯著超過需求的增長，表明 <strong>供過於求。</strong></p>
<p>同樣，美國能源信息署（EIA）也預計原油市場將保持在 <strong>供給超過需求的狀態。</strong> 在其 2025 年 12 月的報告中，EIA 預測 2026 年全球石油供應將平均為每日 1.0743 億桶，而每日平均需求僅為 1.0517 億桶，導致每日供應過剩達到 226 萬桶。</p>
<p>從 OPEC 的角度來看，2026 年 <strong>原油供需將基本實現平衡。</strong> OPEC 此前在報告中預測，未來一年的全球經濟增長將保持在 3.1% 不變，認為石油需求將保持韌性，並預計 2026 年全球石油需求將健康增長，增加 14 萬桶/日，總需求達到 1.065 億桶/日。</p>
<h2>投資銀行預測：對 2026 年油價持悲觀態度？</h2>
<p>在供大於求的背景下，華爾街對 2026 年原油價格的主要預測傾向於持續疲軟，儘管具體價格目標有所不同。<strong>預計平均價格將在每桶 50 至 70 美元之間。</strong></p>
<p>瑞銀認為，低成本頁岩油生產商的供應收縮和石化需求的持續增長將推動原油價格回升，預測到 2026 年底，<strong>布倫特原油將上漲至每桶 67 美元，而 WTI 原油將上漲至每桶 64 美元。</strong></p>
<p>根據巴克萊的説法，地緣政治緊張局勢可能會推高原油價格，但週期性需求放緩可能帶來下行風險。他們預計 2026 年布倫特原油的平均價格將徘徊在 <strong>每桶 65 美元</strong> 左右。</p>
<p>摩根士丹利指出，支撐原油價格的三個關鍵因素是：市場普遍預期供過於求、石油庫存減少以及 OPEC+ 減產。這些因素預計將使布倫特原油價格保持在 <strong>每桶 60 美元</strong>。</p>
<p>摩根大通的預測更為保守，預計油價將在 2016 年跌破 60 美元，可能在 2027 年降至 30 美元。目前，摩根大通預測 2026 年布倫特原油的平均價格為 <strong>每桶 58 美元</strong>，WTI 原油為 <strong>每桶 54 美元</strong>。</p>
<p>在所有投資銀行中，高盛持有最悲觀的展望，預測 2026 年布倫特原油的平均價格為 <strong>每桶 56 美元</strong>，WTI 原油的平均價格為 <strong>每桶 52 美元</strong>。高盛指出，2026 年原油價格疲軟的兩個主要驅動因素是全球經濟放緩和 OPEC+ 供應增加。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>投資銀行</strong></td>
<td><strong>布倫特原油價格（$/桶）</strong></td>
<td><strong>WTI 原油價格（$/桶）</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>瑞銀</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴克萊</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根士丹利</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根大通</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>高盛</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>結論</h2>
<p>原油市場在 2025 年經歷了劇烈波動，整體呈下行趨勢，在年內經歷了兩次峯值，WTI 和布倫特均下跌超過 20%。這些原油價格的劇烈波動主要是由事件驅動的，受到需求疲軟、供過於求和地緣政治發展的相互作用等因素的推動。展望 2026 年，國際能源署和能源信息署預計供應增長將超過需求，暗示市場可能仍將承壓，而 OPEC 則預計將向平衡邁進。根據華爾街主要投資銀行的預測，原油價格預計將保持疲軟，波動在每桶 56 至 67 美元之間。</p>
<p>瞭解更多</p>

<p>在 2025 年，原油價格經歷了顯著的波動，WTI 和布倫特原油因供需失衡、全球經濟疲軟和地緣政治衝突而下跌超過 20%。儘管出現過短暫的上漲，但價格仍然承壓，布倫特原油最高達到每桶 83 美元，WTI 最高達到每桶 79 美元后又回落。國際能源署（IEA）預測 2026 年全球原油需求將略有增加，但供應預計將超過需求，這表明價格將繼續面臨下行壓力。在這些動態下，投資者對未來油價的走勢感到困惑</p>

<p><strong>TradingKey</strong> - Similar to Bitcoin prices volatility, the crude oil market experienced a 'rollercoaster' performance twice in 2025, surging in January and June, respectively. However, crude oil prices are generally on a downward trend, having cumulatively <strong>plunged over 20% in the past year.</strong> Specifically, WTI crude oil (USOIL) fell 22.36%, while Brent crude oil (UKOIL) declined by 20.53%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>TradingKey</strong> - 與比特幣價格波動類似，原油市場在 2025 年經歷了兩次 “過山車” 表現，分別在 1 月和 6 月大幅上漲。然而，原油價格總體呈下降趨勢，過去一年累計 <strong>暴跌超過 20%。</strong> 具體而言，WTI 原油（USOIL）下跌了 22.36%，而布倫特原油（UKOIL）下降了 20.53%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-wti-oil_optimized_150-eb91687072f44002801f43b37f3d1706.png"/></p>
<p>Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil Percentage Change, Source: TradingView.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油、WTI 原油百分比變化，來源：TradingView。</p>
</div><p>The significant price volatility in crude oil during 2025 was primarily influenced by an imbalance between supply and demand, driven by multiple factors or events including global economic weakness, unstable OPEC production, U.S. energy policy, and geopolitical conflicts. As 2026 approaches, investors are anticipating a recovery in oil prices; however, <strong>how will crude oil supply and demand evolve? What is the institutional outlook for crude oil prices—will they continue to decline or rebound?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年原油價格的顯著波動主要受到供需失衡的影響，這種失衡是由全球經濟疲軟、不穩定的 OPEC 產量、美國能源政策和地緣政治衝突等多種因素或事件驅動的。隨着 2026 年的臨近，投資者預計油價將會回升；然而，<strong>原油的供需將如何演變？機構對原油價格的展望如何——是否會繼續下跌或反彈？</strong></p>
</div><h2>2025 Crude Oil Prices: Under Downward Pressure</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2025 年原油價格：承壓下行</h2>
</div><p>In early 2025, crude oil prices surged over 10%, rising to year-to-date highs. Specifically, Brent crude rose to $83/barrel, while WTI crude increased to $79/barrel. Subsequently, <strong>oil prices continuously declined from their peak, experiencing a maximum drawdown of up to 20% and hitting a year-to-date low.</strong> On April 9, Brent crude fell to a low of $58, and WTI crude dropped to $54.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年初，原油價格上漲超過 10%，達到了年內最高點。具體而言，布倫特原油上漲至每桶 83 美元，而 WTI 原油上漲至每桶 79 美元。隨後，<strong>油價從峯值持續下跌，經歷了最高 20% 的回撤，並觸及年內最低點。</strong> 在 4 月 9 日，布倫特原油跌至 58 美元的低點，WTI 原油降至 54 美元。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/crude-oil-prices-7d4323692aff44d996f8fad0f36cdbd1.png"/></p>
<p>Brent Crude Price Chart, Source: TradingView.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布倫特原油價格圖，來源：TradingView。</p>
</div><p>On May 5, <strong>oil prices bottomed out for a second time and rebounded,</strong> then continued to rally. By June 23, oil prices had rebounded to near their year-to-date highs, with Brent crude approaching $80 and WTI crude prices rising to $76. However, crude oil prices could not sustain the rally, plummeting sharply on the same day. A significant bearish candlestick initiated a subsequent path of gradual declines. On December 16, <strong>crude oil prices tested a bottom for the third time but did not break below the low established in April.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 5 月 5 日，<strong>油價第二次觸底並反彈，</strong> 隨後繼續上漲。到 6 月 23 日，油價已反彈至接近年內最高點，布倫特原油接近 80 美元，WTI 原油價格上漲至 76 美元。然而，原油價格未能維持上漲，在同一天急劇下跌。一個顯著的看跌蠟燭圖開啓了隨後的逐步下跌路徑。在 12 月 16 日，<strong>原油價格第三次測試底部，但未突破 4 月創下的低點。</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png" alt="" original-src="https://resource.tradingkey.com/uploads/20251230/wti-oil-prices-02b689c9bf95470ea13f68402e016fc6.png"/></p>
<p>WTI Crude Price Chart, Source: TradingView.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>WTI 原油價格圖，來源：TradingView。</p>
</div><p>It can be observed that crude oil price movements in 2025 exhibited a 'descending triangle' pattern, meaning that rebound highs were declining, with three probes to the downside that did not break through, reflecting <strong>localized strength from bulls; however, bears ultimately prevailed, dominating the market throughout the year.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可以觀察到，2025 年原油價格走勢呈現出 “下降三角形” 模式，這意味着反彈高點在下降，三次向下探測未能突破，反映出 <strong>多頭的局部強勢；然而，空頭最終佔據主導，全年主導市場。</strong></p>
</div><h2>What factors influence crude oil prices?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>影響原油價格的因素有哪些？</h2>
</div><p>Overall, <strong>A slowdown in global economic growth led to a significant decline in market demand for crude oil, causing prices to remain under sustained pressure due to diminished demand.</strong> This was precisely one of the primary reasons for the fall in oil prices in 2025. Although China, the world's second-largest economy, extensively stockpiled oil in the first half of 2025, purchasing millions of barrels of crude oil daily, demand in other major economies remained in a continuous state of contraction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，<strong>全球經濟增長放緩導致市場對原油的需求顯著下降，造成價格因需求減少而持續承壓。</strong> 這正是 2025 年油價下跌的主要原因之一。儘管中國作為全球第二大經濟體在 2025 年上半年大量儲備石油，每天購買數百萬桶原油，但其他主要經濟體的需求仍處於持續收縮狀態。</p>
</div><p>Concurrently, <strong>The global oil market experienced a surplus of 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd), with severe oversupply further suppressing oil prices.</strong> Starting in Q2 2025, OPEC+ initiated a phased and systematic production increase plan, escalating from initial increases to three-fold and then four-fold accelerations in output. Within two quarters, they completed the withdrawal of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary production cuts, leading to a substantial increase in crude oil supply. Furthermore, non-OPEC countries joined the production ramp-up, with five American nations including the United States, Canada, and Brazil boosting their combined output by as much as 2.3 million bpd throughout the year, further exacerbating the crude oil supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，<strong>全球石油市場出現了每日 172 萬桶（bpd）的過剩，嚴重的供給過剩進一步壓制了油價。</strong> 自 2025 年第二季度起，OPEC+ 啓動了分階段和系統的增產計劃，從最初的增產到三倍、四倍的加速增產。在兩個季度內，他們完成了 220 萬桶自願減產的撤回，導致原油供應大幅增加。此外，非 OPEC 國家也加入了增產行列，包括美國、加拿大和巴西在內的五個美洲國家在全年內將其總產量提高了多達 230 萬桶，進一步加劇了原油供應。</p>
</div><p>Despite the overall weakening of crude oil prices, there were two distinct periods of significant surges, primarily driven by <strong>geopolitical conflicts and sanctions imposed on Russia.</strong> In January 2025, prior to leaving office, the Biden administration imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia, adding two key producers, Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegas, along with over 20 of their subsidiaries and more than 180 vessels, to the sanctions list. This action instantly ignited market risk aversion, propelling oil prices to their 2025 annual high. In June 2025, a conflict between Iran and Israel disrupted navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting 30% of global seaborne crude oil trade and driving oil prices back up to $80 per barrel, once again nearing the year's peak.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管原油價格總體走弱，但仍有兩個明顯的顯著上漲時期，主要受到 <strong>地緣政治衝突和對俄羅斯實施的制裁的推動。</strong> 在 2025 年 1 月，拜登政府在離任前對俄羅斯實施了前所未有的制裁，將兩家主要生產商 Gazprom Neft 和 Surgutneftegas 以及其 20 多家子公司和 180 多艘船隻列入制裁名單。這一舉動立即引發了市場的風險厭惡，推動油價達到 2025 年的年度最高點。在 2025 年 6 月，伊朗與以色列之間的衝突擾亂了霍爾木茲海峽的航行，影響了全球 30% 的海上原油貿易，再次將油價推高至每桶 80 美元，再次接近年度峯值。</p>
</div><h2>What will the crude oil supply and demand structure be in 2026?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2026 年原油供需結構將如何？</h2>
</div><p>The International Energy Agency (IEA) slightly revised upward its forecast for global crude oil demand in 2026, adjusting it from 104.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 104.8 mb/d. This projection signifies a demand increase of 0.86 mb/d, driven by the gradual fading of trade tariffs and an improvement in macroeconomic conditions. On the supply side, the IEA projects that global crude oil supply will increase by 2.4 mb/d in 2026, significantly exceeding the growth in demand, indicating <strong>an oversupply.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署（IEA）略微上調了對 2026 年全球原油需求的預測，將其從每日 1.047 億桶（mb/d）調整為 1.048 億桶。這一預測表明需求增加了 86 萬桶，主要受到貿易關税逐漸消退和宏觀經濟條件改善的推動。在供應方面，IEA 預計 2026 年全球原油供應將增加 240 萬桶，顯著超過需求的增長，表明 <strong>供過於求。</strong></p>
</div><p>Similarly, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also anticipates that the crude oil market will remain in <strong>a state of supply exceeding demand.</strong> In its December 2025 report, the EIA forecasted that global oil supply in 2026 would average 107.43 mb/d, while average daily demand would be only 105.17 mb/d, resulting in a significant daily supply surplus of 2.26 mb/d.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>同樣，美國能源信息署（EIA）也預計原油市場將保持在 <strong>供給超過需求的狀態。</strong> 在其 2025 年 12 月的報告中，EIA 預測 2026 年全球石油供應將平均為每日 1.0743 億桶，而每日平均需求僅為 1.0517 億桶，導致每日供應過剩達到 226 萬桶。</p>
</div><p>From OPEC's perspective, for 2026, <strong>the crude oil supply and demand will largely achieve equilibrium.</strong> OPEC had previously projected in its report that global economic growth for the coming year would remain unchanged at 3.1%, believing that oil demand would remain resilient, and anticipated healthy growth in global oil demand for 2026, increasing by 1.4 mb/d, with total demand reaching 106.5 mb/d.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 OPEC 的角度來看，2026 年 <strong>原油供需將基本實現平衡。</strong> OPEC 此前在報告中預測，未來一年的全球經濟增長將保持在 3.1% 不變，認為石油需求將保持韌性，並預計 2026 年全球石油需求將健康增長，增加 14 萬桶/日，總需求達到 1.065 億桶/日。</p>
</div><h2>Investment Bank Forecast: Bearish on 2026 Oil Prices?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資銀行預測：對 2026 年油價持悲觀態度？</h2>
</div><p>Given the backdrop of supply exceeding demand, Wall Street's major forecasts for 2026 crude oil prices lean towards continued weakness, although specific price targets vary. <strong>The average price is projected to remain between $50-$70 per barrel.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在供大於求的背景下，華爾街對 2026 年原油價格的主要預測傾向於持續疲軟，儘管具體價格目標有所不同。<strong>預計平均價格將在每桶 50 至 70 美元之間。</strong></p>
</div><p>UBS believes that the supply contraction from low-cost shale oil producers and the sustained growth in petrochemical demand will drive a recovery in crude oil prices, forecasting that by the end of 2026, <strong>Brent crude will rise to $67/barrel, while WTI crude will increase to $64/barrel.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瑞銀認為，低成本頁岩油生產商的供應收縮和石化需求的持續增長將推動原油價格回升，預測到 2026 年底，<strong>布倫特原油將上漲至每桶 67 美元，而 WTI 原油將上漲至每桶 64 美元。</strong></p>
</div><p>According to Barclays, geopolitical tensions could boost crude oil prices, but a slowdown in cyclical demand may pose downside risks. They anticipate Brent crude will hover around <strong>$65 per barrel</strong> on average in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據巴克萊的説法，地緣政治緊張局勢可能會推高原油價格，但週期性需求放緩可能帶來下行風險。他們預計 2026 年布倫特原油的平均價格將徘徊在 <strong>每桶 65 美元</strong> 左右。</p>
</div><p>Morgan Stanley identifies three key factors supporting crude oil prices: widespread market expectations of an oversupply, decreasing oil inventories, and OPEC+ production cuts. These factors are expected to keep Brent crude prices at <strong>$60/barrel</strong> .</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根士丹利指出，支撐原油價格的三個關鍵因素是：市場普遍預期供過於求、石油庫存減少以及 OPEC+ 減產。這些因素預計將使布倫特原油價格保持在 <strong>每桶 60 美元</strong>。</p>
</div><p>JPMorgan is more conservative, predicting that oil prices will fall below the $60 mark in 2016, potentially dropping to $30 in 2027. Currently, JPMorgan forecasts an average Brent crude price of <strong>$58/barrel</strong> and WTI crude at <strong>$54/barrel for 2026.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通的預測更為保守，預計油價將在 2016 年跌破 60 美元，可能在 2027 年降至 30 美元。目前，摩根大通預測 2026 年布倫特原油的平均價格為 <strong>每桶 58 美元</strong>，WTI 原油為 <strong>每桶 54 美元</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Among all investment banks, Goldman Sachs holds the most pessimistic outlook, forecasting an average Brent crude price of <strong>$56/barrel</strong> and an average WTI crude price of <strong>$52/barrel</strong> in 2026. Goldman Sachs identifies two primary drivers for weak crude oil prices in 2026: a global economic slowdown and increased OPEC+ supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在所有投資銀行中，高盛持有最悲觀的展望，預測 2026 年布倫特原油的平均價格為 <strong>每桶 56 美元</strong>，WTI 原油的平均價格為 <strong>每桶 52 美元</strong>。高盛指出，2026 年原油價格疲軟的兩個主要驅動因素是全球經濟放緩和 OPEC+ 供應增加。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>Investment Bank</strong></td>
<td><strong>Brent Crude Price ($/barrel)</strong></td>
<td><strong>WTI Crude Price ($/barrel)</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>UBS</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Barclays</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Morgan Stanley</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JPMorgan</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Goldman Sachs</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>投資銀行</strong></td>
<td><strong>布倫特原油價格（$/桶）</strong></td>
<td><strong>WTI 原油價格（$/桶）</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>瑞銀</td>
<td>67</td>
<td>64</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>巴克萊</td>
<td>65</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根士丹利</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>-</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>摩根大通</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>高盛</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>52</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h2>Conclusion</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結論</h2>
</div><p>The crude oil market experienced severe turbulence in 2025, trending downwards overall after two peaks during the year, with WTI and Brent both falling over 20%. These sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices were primarily event-driven, propelled by factors such as soft demand, oversupply, and the interplay of geopolitical developments. Looking ahead to 2026, both the IEA and EIA anticipate that supply growth will exceed demand, suggesting the market may remain under pressure, whereas OPEC expects a move towards equilibrium. According to major Wall Street investment banks, crude oil prices are projected to remain soft, fluctuating between $56 and $67 per barrel.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>原油市場在 2025 年經歷了劇烈波動，整體呈下行趨勢，在年內經歷了兩次峯值，WTI 和布倫特均下跌超過 20%。這些原油價格的劇烈波動主要是由事件驅動的，受到需求疲軟、供過於求和地緣政治發展的相互作用等因素的推動。展望 2026 年，國際能源署和能源信息署預計供應增長將超過需求，暗示市場可能仍將承壓，而 OPEC 則預計將向平衡邁進。根據華爾街主要投資銀行的預測，原油價格預計將保持疲軟，波動在每桶 56 至 67 美元之間。</p>
</div><p>Find out more</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>瞭解更多</p>
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TradingKey 市場回顧與展望 | 2025 年原油價格崩潰，油價能否在 2026 年反彈？