<p>Strategy，前身為 MicroStrategy，其股票跌至新的年度低點。在 12 月 29 日更廣泛的科技股拋售後，MSTR 股票下跌了 2.15%，創下 2025 年的新低，報 155.32 美元。</p>
<p>從 2024 年的高點 543 美元來看，MSTR 已經暴跌 71%，為華爾街的空頭們提供了豐厚的機會。</p>
<p>儘管一些空頭在 11 月開始平倉以實現收益，但 MSTR 的自由下跌並沒有減緩。截至發稿時，該股票已回到 2024 年 100-180 美元的價格區間內。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png"/></p>
<p>來源：MSTR，TradingView</p>
<h2><strong>Strategy 股票的看空驅動因素</strong></h2>
<p>過去幾周推動看空情緒的因素之一是 MSCI 指數可能將 MSTR 和其他加密貨幣財務公司剔除的風險。</p>
<p>儘管 Strategy 創始人 Michael Saylor 為公司辯護，稱其應作為一家運營公司繼續留在全球指數上，但預測網站 Polymarket 在 2026 年初對剔除的可能性定價為 75% 以上。</p>
<p>摩根大通分析師警告稱，這樣的舉動將導致 80 億美元的資金流出該股票。</p>
<p>甚至有人猜測，剔除將迫使其清算比特幣持有，但市場對這種 BTC 拋售的預期仍然較低。</p>
<p>MSCI 在 1 月中旬的決定可能為該股票的下一步方向提供必要的明確性。</p>
<h2><strong>MSTR 稀釋</strong></h2>
<p>此外，通過 MSTR 股票銷售來資助比特幣 [BTC] 購買的持續稀釋可能也對股票施加了壓力。</p>
<p>根據分析師 Novacula Occami 的説法，Strategy 儘管其 BTC 持有量低於企業價值，但仍出售了價值 40 億美元的 MSTR。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“自 7 月公告以來，他們發行了 49 億美元的 MSTR 普通股，其中 40 億美元是在 11 月和 12 月以低於 1 的普通 mNAV 發行的。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>該公司早前表示，如果 mNAV 低於 2.5 倍，將不會出售普通股（MSTR），隨後將其更改為 1 倍。</p>
<p>總體而言，Strategy 在 2025 年花費了 225 億美元購買比特幣。這幾乎是自 2020 年以來其超過 500 億美元投資於 BTC 的一半。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>這筆資金來自 MSTR 和優先股的銷售，以及債務。事實上，最新的 1.08 億美元比特幣購買完全由 MSTR 股票銷售資助。Strategy 現在擁有 672,497 BTC。</p>
<p>儘管 2025 年出現了大幅拋售，華爾街分析師對 MSTR 股票仍持樂觀態度。在過去一個月中，有 13 個買入評級，目標價格範圍在 465 美元到 485 美元之間，暗示 170%-200% 的上漲潛力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png"/></p>
<p>來源：MarketBeat</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>MSTR 在 2025 年下半年經歷了大規模拋售後，創下 155 美元的新年度低點。</em></li>
<li><em>儘管如此，華爾街分析師仍預測該股票有 200% 的上漲潛力。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

MSTR

<p>Strategy（前稱 MicroStrategy）股票已跌至年度低點 155.32 美元，比 2024 年的高點 543 美元下跌了 71%，這主要是由於對潛在 MSCI 指數退市的擔憂。分析師預測，如果退市，將導致 80 億美元的資金流出，而持續的股票銷售以資助比特幣購買也增加了壓力。儘管股價下跌，華爾街依然保持樂觀，13 個買入評級暗示潛在上漲幅度為 170%-200%。MSCI 在 1 月中旬的決定可能會明確該股票未來的方向</p>

<p>Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, saw its stock drop to a fresh yearly low. Following a broader tech sell-off on the 29th of December, MSTR stock dropped by 2.15% to a record 2025 low of $155.32.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy，前身為 MicroStrategy，其股票跌至新的年度低點。在 12 月 29 日更廣泛的科技股拋售後，MSTR 股票下跌了 2.15%，創下 2025 年的新低，報 155.32 美元。</p>
</div><p>From its 2024 high of $543, MSTR has crashed by 71%, presenting several Wall Street bears with a windfall opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從 2024 年的高點 543 美元來看，MSTR 已經暴跌 71%，為華爾街的空頭們提供了豐厚的機會。</p>
</div><p>Although some bears began unwinding short positions in November to realize their gains, MSTR’s free fall did not slow down. At press time, the stock was back within the 2024 price range of $100-$180.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管一些空頭在 11 月開始平倉以實現收益，但 MSTR 的自由下跌並沒有減緩。截至發稿時，該股票已回到 2024 年 100-180 美元的價格區間內。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/MSTR_2025-12-30_10-21-55.png"/></p>
<p>Source: MSTR, TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：MSTR，TradingView</p>
</div><h2><strong>Strategy stock bearish drivers</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>Strategy 股票的看空驅動因素</strong></h2>
</div><p>One of the factors driving bearish sentiment over the past few weeks has been the risk of MSCI index delisting MSTR and other crypto treasury firms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去幾周推動看空情緒的因素之一是 MSCI 指數可能將 MSTR 和其他加密貨幣財務公司剔除的風險。</p>
</div><p>Although the Strategy founder, Michael Saylor, has defended the firm as an operational company that should remain on the global index, prediction site Polymarket was pricing a +75% chance of delisting in early 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 Strategy 創始人 Michael Saylor 為公司辯護，稱其應作為一家運營公司繼續留在全球指數上，但預測網站 Polymarket 在 2026 年初對剔除的可能性定價為 75% 以上。</p>
</div><p>JPMorgan analysts warned that such a move would drive $8 billion in outflows from the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摩根大通分析師警告稱，這樣的舉動將導致 80 億美元的資金流出該股票。</p>
</div><p>Some even speculated that the delisting would force liquidation of its Bitcoin holdings, but market expectations for such a BTC sell-off remained low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甚至有人猜測，剔除將迫使其清算比特幣持有，但市場對這種 BTC 拋售的預期仍然較低。</p>
</div><p>The MSCI decision in mid-January could offer the needed clarity for the stock’s next direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 在 1 月中旬的決定可能為該股票的下一步方向提供必要的明確性。</p>
</div><h2><strong>MSTR dilution</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>MSTR 稀釋</strong></h2>
</div><p>Additionally, the ongoing dilution through MSTR stock sales to fund Bitcoin [BTC] purchases may have contributed to the stock’s pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，通過 MSTR 股票銷售來資助比特幣 [BTC] 購買的持續稀釋可能也對股票施加了壓力。</p>
</div><p>According to analyst Novacula Occami, Strategy sold $4 billion worth of MSTR despite its BTC holdings trading below its enterprise value, or mNAV, being below 1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據分析師 Novacula Occami 的説法，Strategy 儘管其 BTC 持有量低於企業價值，但仍出售了價值 40 億美元的 MSTR。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Since that July announcement, they’ve issued $4.9 billion of $MSTR common with $4 billion of that issued at a common mNAV below 1 (in Nov and Dec).”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“自 7 月公告以來，他們發行了 49 億美元的 MSTR 普通股，其中 40 億美元是在 11 月和 12 月以低於 1 的普通 mNAV 發行的。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-112236.png"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>The firm had earlier stated that it wouldn’t sell the common stock (MSTR) if the mNAV fell below 2.5x, then changed it to 1x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司早前表示，如果 mNAV 低於 2.5 倍，將不會出售普通股（MSTR），隨後將其更改為 1 倍。</p>
</div><p>Overall, Strategy has spent $22.5 billion to buy Bitcoin in 2025. This was nearly half of its +$50 billion investment in BTC since 2020.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總體而言，Strategy 在 2025 年花費了 225 億美元購買比特幣。這幾乎是自 2020 年以來其超過 500 億美元投資於 BTC 的一半。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Strategy-Bitcoin-buys.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>This has been funded by MSTR and preferred stock sales, as well as debt. In fact, the latest $108 million BTC buy was wholly funded by MSTR stock sales. Strategy now owns 672,497 BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這筆資金來自 MSTR 和優先股的銷售，以及債務。事實上，最新的 1.08 億美元比特幣購買完全由 MSTR 股票銷售資助。Strategy 現在擁有 672,497 BTC。</p>
</div><p>That said, despite the massive dump in 2025, Wall Street analysts were still bullish on MSTR stock. There were 13 buy ratings in the past month, with price targets ranging from $465 to $485, implying a 170%-200% upside potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 2025 年出現了大幅拋售，華爾街分析師對 MSTR 股票仍持樂觀態度。在過去一個月中，有 13 個買入評級，目標價格範圍在 465 美元到 485 美元之間，暗示 170%-200% 的上漲潛力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-30-103701.png"/></p>
<p>Source: MarketBeat</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：MarketBeat</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>MSTR printed fresh yearly lows at $155 following a massive dump in H2 2025.</em></li>
<li><em>Still, Wall Street analysts projected a 200% upside potential for the stock.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>MSTR 在 2025 年下半年經歷了大規模拋售後，創下 155 美元的新年度低點。</em></li>
<li><em>儘管如此，華爾街分析師仍預測該股票有 200% 的上漲潛力。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

Strategy 股票正在下跌，隨着 MSCI 裁決的臨近，MSTR 接下來會如何發展？