<p>當你看到像星巴克（SBUX）這樣無處不在的品牌時，很容易就會認為這隻股票一定是個常勝將軍。我們看到咖啡館人滿為患，得排長隊的得來速，作為交易者，我們的本能是想要參與其中。這感覺安全而熟悉。但正如我們所知，一個受歡迎的品牌並不總是意味着一筆好的股票交易。</p>
<p>我已經密切關注 SBUX 一段時間了。這是一個偶爾會在掃描器上出現的名字，暗示着潛在的走勢。你會看到一絲生機和一個看似可以作為發射台的價格水平。但一次又一次，星巴克證明了自己是失敗突破的高手。</p>
<p>那麼 SBUX 現在值得買入嗎？最近的價格走勢可以信任嗎，還是這只是另一個等待抓住過於熱情的多頭的陷阱？在分析了圖表和更廣泛的市場背景後，我的答案是極其謹慎。雖然從長期來看，買入的誘惑很強，但技術證據表明這隻股票應該在觀察名單上，而不是在投資組合中。</p>
<h3><strong>最近突破嘗試的現實</strong></h3>
<p>突破是波段交易的基礎。我們尋找整合、能量積累，然後在強勁的成交量下突破阻力。這個動作是買方掌控局勢的綠燈，表明最小阻力的路徑是向上。</p>
<p>在過去的一年裏，星巴克提供了一堂關於失敗突破的精彩課程。在過去的十二個月中，有兩個明顯的突破嘗試。從表面上看，它們看起來很有前景。但實際上，兩個嘗試都沒有持續足夠長的時間來維持動能。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1414" height="787" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg"/></p>
<p>最近一次嘗試對多頭來説尤其令人沮喪。看似反轉的走勢持續了整整一天。股票上漲，買家蜂擁而入，然後價格立即回落。當一隻股票無法在單一交易日內保持突破時，這表明賣方仍然積極並牢牢掌控局勢。</p>
<h3><strong>忽視狂熱的牛市</strong></h3>
<p>這種疲軟在更廣泛的市場環境下顯得更加令人擔憂。我們並不處於熊市或波動範圍內。標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克一直在不斷創出新高，帶動大多數股票上漲。</p>
<p>在強勁的牛市中，漲潮會提升大多數船隻。當像星巴克這樣的股票未能參與時，表明明顯的相對疲弱。當其他大型股票突破並保持漲幅時，SBUX 卻在掙扎求生。</p>
<p>許多交易者説服自己，滯後的股票 “應該” 迎來追趕的機會。這是一種危險的心態。股票滯後是有原因的。如果 SBUX 在理想條件下無法反彈，想象一下當更廣泛的市場最終回調時它會如何表現。</p>
<h3><strong>長期支撐並不是買入信號</strong></h3>
<p>交易者常常將長期支撐作為買入的理由。他們查看多年的圖表，認為反彈是不可避免的。公平地説，星巴克正處於一個歷史上吸引買家的區域附近。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1412" height="790" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg"/></p>
<p>但僅僅有支撐並不是買入信號。支撐只是價格可能反應的一個水平，可能僅適合短期交易。支撐位可能會破裂。更重要的是，一隻股票可能在支撐位上停留數月，鎖定資金，而更好的機會卻悄然流逝。這就是交易的機會成本。</p>
<p>現在，幾乎沒有有意義的積累證據。機構買家似乎在捍衞支撐，但他們並沒有積極介入。在這種情況下，買入 SBUX 更多的是希望而非概率。</p>
<h3><strong>在我們買入之前需要改變的事情</strong></h3>
<p>這並不意味着星巴克永遠無法投資。圖表會變化，當它們變化時，觀點也應該隨之改變。</p>
<p>為了使 SBUX 成為一個可行的波段交易候選，我們需要一個明確的結構性轉變。具體來説，我希望看到經典的道氏理論反轉。</p>
<p>這意味着在日線圖上形成持續的更高高點和更高低點的模式。</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>更高高點：</strong> 價格必須突破之前的阻力位並保持，證明買家願意支付更高的價格。</li>
<li><strong>更高低點：</strong> 回調必須在之前的低點上找到支撐，表明賣方更早地耗盡了力量。</li>
</ul>
<p>在 SBUX 展示這種行為之前，它不值得考慮。我們需要確認，而不是期待。</p>
<h3><strong>試圖抄底的危險</strong></h3>
<p>現在買入星巴克基本上是在試圖抄底。這是交易中抓住下跌刀子的等價物。你可能會走運，但成功的幾率並不在你這邊。</p>
<p>交易是一場概率遊戲。在強勁市場中多次失敗突破的股票並不為你增加成功的幾率。這使你處於弱勢地位。</p>
<p>太多交易者在試圖成為準確預測知名品牌底部的英雄時爆掉賬户。他們讓熟悉感矇蔽了判斷，將公司與股票代碼混淆。你的工作是增長資本，而不是在股市中做忠實客户。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>黃金回調</p>
<p>使用成交量分析進行波段交易</p>
<p>SLV 拋物線反彈及交易者應關注的下一步</p>

星巴克

<p>星巴克 (SBUX) 在突破嘗試上遭遇挫折，這引發了交易者的警惕。儘管當前牛市強勁，SBUX 卻未能參與其中，顯示出相對的疲弱。近期的價格走勢顯示缺乏動能，買家無法維持漲幅。長期支撐並不是一個可靠的買入信號，因為這可能導致機會成本。要使 SBUX 成為一個可行的投資，必須展示出更高的高點和更高的低點的模式。目前，購買 SBUX 就像試圖抓住一把下跌的刀，交易者面臨的風險較大</p>

<p>When you look at a brand as ubiquitous as Starbucks (SBUX), it is easy to assume the stock must be a perennial winner. We see packed cafes and long drive-thru lines, and as traders, our instinct is to want a piece of that action. It feels safe and familiar. But as we know all too well, a popular brand does not always make for a great stock trade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當你看到像星巴克（SBUX）這樣無處不在的品牌時，很容易就會認為這隻股票一定是個常勝將軍。我們看到咖啡館人滿為患，得排長隊的得來速，作為交易者，我們的本能是想要參與其中。這感覺安全而熟悉。但正如我們所知，一個受歡迎的品牌並不總是意味着一筆好的股票交易。</p>
</div><p>I have been watching SBUX closely for quite some time. It is one of those names that pops up on scanners occasionally, teasing a potential move. You see a flicker of life and a price level that looks like it might finally act as a launchpad. But time and again, Starbucks has proven to be a master of the failed breakout.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我已經密切關注 SBUX 一段時間了。這是一個偶爾會在掃描器上出現的名字，暗示着潛在的走勢。你會看到一絲生機和一個看似可以作為發射台的價格水平。但一次又一次，星巴克證明了自己是失敗突破的高手。</p>
</div><p>So is SBUX a buy here? Can the recent price action be trusted, or is this just another trap waiting to snag overzealous bulls eager to buy the dip? After analyzing the charts and the broader market context, my answer is one of extreme caution. While the temptation to buy the dip is strong, especially from a long-term perspective, the technical evidence suggests this stock belongs on a watchlist, not in a portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>那麼 SBUX 現在值得買入嗎？最近的價格走勢可以信任嗎，還是這只是另一個等待抓住過於熱情的多頭的陷阱？在分析了圖表和更廣泛的市場背景後，我的答案是極其謹慎。雖然從長期來看，買入的誘惑很強，但技術證據表明這隻股票應該在觀察名單上，而不是在投資組合中。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Reality of Recent Breakout Attempts</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>最近突破嘗試的現實</strong></h3>
</div><p>Breakouts are the bread and butter of swing trading. We look for consolidation, energy building, and then a push through resistance on strong volume. That move is the green light that buyers are in control and the path of least resistance is higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>突破是波段交易的基礎。我們尋找整合、能量積累，然後在強勁的成交量下突破阻力。這個動作是買方掌控局勢的綠燈，表明最小阻力的路徑是向上。</p>
</div><p>Over the past year, Starbucks has delivered a masterclass in failed breakouts. There have been two clear breakout attempts in the last twelve months. On paper, they looked promising. In reality, neither attempt held long enough to sustain momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的一年裏，星巴克提供了一堂關於失敗突破的精彩課程。在過去的十二個月中，有兩個明顯的突破嘗試。從表面上看，它們看起來很有前景。但實際上，兩個嘗試都沒有持續足夠長的時間來維持動能。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23a.jpg"/></p>
<p>The most recent attempt was particularly discouraging for bulls. What appeared to be a reversal lasted exactly one day. The stock popped, buyers rushed in, and then price immediately rolled over. When a stock cannot hold a breakout for more than a single session, it tells you sellers remain aggressive and firmly in control.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近一次嘗試對多頭來説尤其令人沮喪。看似反轉的走勢持續了整整一天。股票上漲，買家蜂擁而入，然後價格立即回落。當一隻股票無法在單一交易日內保持突破時，這表明賣方仍然積極並牢牢掌控局勢。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Ignoring the Raging Bull Market</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>忽視狂熱的牛市</strong></h3>
</div><p>This weakness is even more concerning given the broader market environment. We are not in a bear market or a choppy range. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq have been relentlessly pushing to new highs, lifting most stocks along the way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種疲軟在更廣泛的市場環境下顯得更加令人擔憂。我們並不處於熊市或波動範圍內。標準普爾 500 指數和納斯達克一直在不斷創出新高，帶動大多數股票上漲。</p>
</div><p>In strong bull markets, a rising tide lifts most boats. When a stock like Starbucks fails to participate, it signals clear relative weakness. While other large-cap stocks are breaking out and holding gains, SBUX is struggling to stay afloat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在強勁的牛市中，漲潮會提升大多數船隻。當像星巴克這樣的股票未能參與時，表明明顯的相對疲弱。當其他大型股票突破並保持漲幅時，SBUX 卻在掙扎求生。</p>
</div><p>Many traders convince themselves a lagging stock is “due” for a catch-up move. That is a dangerous mindset. Stocks lag for a reason. If SBUX cannot rally when conditions are ideal, imagine how it will behave when the broader market finally pulls back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多交易者説服自己，滯後的股票 “應該” 迎來追趕的機會。這是一種危險的心態。股票滯後是有原因的。如果 SBUX 在理想條件下無法反彈，想象一下當更廣泛的市場最終回調時它會如何表現。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Long-Term Support Is Not a Buy Signal</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>長期支撐並不是買入信號</strong></h3>
</div><p>Traders often point to long-term support as justification for buying. They look at multi-year charts and assume a bounce is inevitable. To be fair, Starbucks is sitting near an area that has historically attracted buyers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者常常將長期支撐作為買入的理由。他們查看多年的圖表，認為反彈是不可避免的。公平地説，星巴克正處於一個歷史上吸引買家的區域附近。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.shareplanner.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/sbux-23.jpg"/></p>
<p>But support alone is not a buy signal. Support is simply a level where price may react, and it may only be suitable for short-term trades. Floors can break. More importantly, a stock can sit on support for months, tying up capital while better opportunities pass by. This is the opportunity cost of trading.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但僅僅有支撐並不是買入信號。支撐只是價格可能反應的一個水平，可能僅適合短期交易。支撐位可能會破裂。更重要的是，一隻股票可能在支撐位上停留數月，鎖定資金，而更好的機會卻悄然流逝。這就是交易的機會成本。</p>
</div><p>Right now, there is little evidence of meaningful accumulation. Institutional buyers appear to be defending support, but they are not aggressively stepping in. Until that changes, buying SBUX is more about hope than probability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在，幾乎沒有有意義的積累證據。機構買家似乎在捍衞支撐，但他們並沒有積極介入。在這種情況下，買入 SBUX 更多的是希望而非概率。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What Needs to Change Before We Buy</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>在我們買入之前需要改變的事情</strong></h3>
</div><p>This does not mean Starbucks is uninvestable forever. Charts change, and when they do, opinions should change with them.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不意味着星巴克永遠無法投資。圖表會變化，當它們變化時，觀點也應該隨之改變。</p>
</div><p>For SBUX to become a viable swing-trade candidate, we need a clear structural shift. Specifically, I want to see a classic Dow Theory reversal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了使 SBUX 成為一個可行的波段交易候選，我們需要一個明確的結構性轉變。具體來説，我希望看到經典的道氏理論反轉。</p>
</div><p>That means a sustained pattern of higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這意味着在日線圖上形成持續的更高高點和更高低點的模式。</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Higher Highs:</strong> Price must break above a prior resistance level and hold, proving buyers are willing to pay higher prices.</li>
<li><strong>Higher Lows:</strong> Pullbacks must find support above previous lows, showing sellers are exhausting themselves sooner.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>更高高點：</strong> 價格必須突破之前的阻力位並保持，證明買家願意支付更高的價格。</li>
<li><strong>更高低點：</strong> 回調必須在之前的低點上找到支撐，表明賣方更早地耗盡了力量。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Until SBUX demonstrates this behavior, it is not worth considering. We need confirmation, not anticipation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 SBUX 展示這種行為之前，它不值得考慮。我們需要確認，而不是期待。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Danger of Trying to Pick a Bottom</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>試圖抄底的危險</strong></h3>
</div><p>Buying Starbucks right now is essentially an attempt to pick a bottom. It is the trading equivalent of catching a falling knife. You might get lucky, but the odds are stacked against you.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在買入星巴克基本上是在試圖抄底。這是交易中抓住下跌刀子的等價物。你可能會走運，但成功的幾率並不在你這邊。</p>
</div><p>Trading is a game of probabilities. Buying a stock that has failed multiple breakouts during a strong market does not stack the odds in your favor. It puts you in a position of weakness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易是一場概率遊戲。在強勁市場中多次失敗突破的股票並不為你增加成功的幾率。這使你處於弱勢地位。</p>
</div><p>Too many traders blow up accounts trying to be heroes who call exact bottoms in well-known brands. They let familiarity cloud judgment and confuse the company with the ticker symbol. Your job is to grow capital, not to be a loyal customer in the stock market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>太多交易者在試圖成為準確預測知名品牌底部的英雄時爆掉賬户。他們讓熟悉感矇蔽了判斷，將公司與股票代碼混淆。你的工作是增長資本，而不是在股市中做忠實客户。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Gold Pullback</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金回調</p>
</div><p>Swing Trading Using Volume Analysis</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用成交量分析進行波段交易</p>
</div><p>SLV Parabolic Rally &amp; What Traders Should Watch Next</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SLV 拋物線反彈及交易者應關注的下一步</p>
</div>

星巴克股票分析：為什麼星巴克總是無法成功突破