<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="684" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA"/>
圖片來源：Unsplash
油價期貨在美國早盤交易中上漲，但預計全年將大幅下跌。
據道瓊斯報道，OPEC+ 減產的解除以及非 OPEC 產量的增加引發了 2025 年的過剩擔憂，而美國製裁和中東、俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭以及最近的委內瑞拉地緣政治緊張局勢導致價格頻繁波動。
<blockquote>
“隨着浮動庫存逐漸進入陸上設施，原油供應過剩將比秋季大部分時間更具透明度，” Ritterbusch and Associates 在一份報告中表示。
</blockquote>
但在地緣政治混亂之外，國內供應和生產仍然是關鍵...
能源部
<ul>
<li>原油 -193.4 萬桶</li>
<li>庫欣 +54.3 萬桶</li>
<li>汽油 +584.5 萬桶</li>
<li>柴油 +497.7 萬桶</li>
</ul>
原油庫存在過去四周中第三週下降，而 產品庫存則連續第八週增加...
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1ka01hMWNFVg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="596" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1ka01hMWNFVg"/>
截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日的一週，美國原油總庫存（不包括戰略石油儲備）降至 422,888 千桶，為 2025 年 10 月 31 日以來的最低水平... 與原油價格脱鈎...
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg/query-aXRvaz1FNXo0aGJHSQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="596" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg/query-aXRvaz1FNXo0aGJHSQ"/>
美國原油產量仍接近歷史高位，而鑽井數量全年持續下降...
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1HaFVndi03bQ?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="592" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1HaFVndi03bQ"/>
油價正面臨自 2020 年疫情開始以來最嚴重的年度損失， 這一年受到地緣政治風險和全球供應持續增加的主導。
<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg/query-aXRvaz1WbW9uN0tmVw?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1017" height="588" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg/query-aXRvaz1WbW9uN0tmVw"/>
OPEC+ 在今年早些時候通過逆轉長期以來捍衞價格的政策並提高產量，攪動了市場， 試圖重新奪回市場份額，因為包括巴西和圭亞那在內的國家增加了供應，而美國的產量達到了歷史高位。預計該生產集團將在本週末的談判中暫停增產。
預計懲罰性的過剩將在 2026 年對價格施加壓力 - 全球石油市場今年供應過剩。
<blockquote>
“油市預計將在 2026 年繼續過剩，美國、巴西、圭亞那和阿根廷的強勁非 OPEC 產量將超過不均衡的全球需求，” Kotak Securities Ltd.的分析師 Kaynat Chainwala 表示。她補充説，價格應保持在 50 到 70 美元之間，委內瑞拉或俄羅斯供應的風險仍將支持價格。
</blockquote>
國際能源署和美國政府均預計，2025 年生產將超過消費超過 200 萬桶/天，而這一過剩在未來一年將進一步惡化。
<hr/>
更多來自該作者的文章：
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油價期貨預計將迎來自新冠疫情以來最糟糕的年度損失，這主要是由於美國原油產量創紀錄和 OPEC+ 的減產。地緣政治緊張局勢和全球供應增加導致了過剩的擔憂，分析師預測這種過剩將持續到 2026 年。美國原油庫存降至自 2025 年 10 月以來的最低水平，儘管鑽井數量下降，產量仍然保持在高位。預計價格將在 50 美元到 70 美元之間波動，受地緣政治風險和非 OPEC 國家的生產水平影響

<img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/>
Image Source: Unsplash
<div class="lb-trans">圖片來源：Unsplash
</div>Oil futures are gaining in early U.S. trade, but on track to end the year substantially lower.
<div class="lb-trans">油價期貨在美國早盤交易中上漲，但預計全年將大幅下跌。
</div>As Dow Jones reports, the unwinding of OPEC+ output cuts, along with higher non-OPEC production, fueled oversupply concerns in 2025, while U.S. sanctions and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Russia-Ukraine and more recently Venezuela led to frequent price spikes.
<div class="lb-trans">據道瓊斯報道，OPEC+ 減產的解除以及非 OPEC 產量的增加引發了 2025 年的過剩擔憂，而美國製裁和中東、俄羅斯 - 烏克蘭以及最近的委內瑞拉地緣政治緊張局勢導致價格頻繁波動。
</div><blockquote>
&#34;The crude supply surplus will acquire greater transparency than was the case through most of the fall period as floating storage gradually finds its way into onshore facilities,&#34; Ritterbusch and Associates says in a note.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
“隨着浮動庫存逐漸進入陸上設施，原油供應過剩將比秋季大部分時間更具透明度，” Ritterbusch and Associates 在一份報告中表示。
</blockquote>
</div>But away from the geopolitical chaos, domestic supply and production remain key...
<div class="lb-trans">但在地緣政治混亂之外，國內供應和生產仍然是關鍵...
</div>DOE
<div class="lb-trans">能源部
</div><ul>
<li>Crude -1.934mm</li>
<li>Cushing +543k</li>
<li>Gasoline +5.845mm</li>
<li>Distillates +4.977mm</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>原油 -193.4 萬桶</li>
<li>庫欣 +54.3 萬桶</li>
<li>汽油 +584.5 萬桶</li>
<li>柴油 +497.7 萬桶</li>
</ul>
</div>Crude stocks fell for the 3rd week in the last 4 while product inventories saw their 8th straight weekly build in a row...
<div class="lb-trans">原油庫存在過去四周中第三週下降，而 產品庫存則連續第八週增加...
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1ka01hMWNFVg" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm65F4_0.jpg?itok=dkMa1cEV"/>
The US Crude Oil Total Inventory (excluding Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell to 422,888 thousand barrels in the week ending Dec. 26, 2025, lowest since Oct. 31, 2025... decoupling from the crude price...
<div class="lb-trans">截至 2025 年 12 月 26 日的一週，美國原油總庫存（不包括戰略石油儲備）降至 422,888 千桶，為 2025 年 10 月 31 日以來的最低水平... 與原油價格脱鈎...
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg/query-aXRvaz1FNXo0aGJHSQ" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmFA7B.jpg?itok=E5z4hbGI"/>
US crude production remains near record highs as the rig count has continued to slide all year...
<div class="lb-trans">美國原油產量仍接近歷史高位，而鑽井數量全年持續下降...
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg/query-aXRvaz1HaFVndi03bQ" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfm6A07_0.jpg?itok=GhUgv-7m"/>
Oil headed for its steepest annual loss since the start of the pandemic in 2020, in a year that has been dominated by geopolitical risks and steadily rising supplies across the globe.
<div class="lb-trans">油價正面臨自 2020 年疫情開始以來最嚴重的年度損失， 這一年受到地緣政治風險和全球供應持續增加的主導。
</div><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg/query-aXRvaz1WbW9uN0tmVw" alt="" original-src="https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-public/inline-images/bfmDA3.jpg?itok=Vmon7KfW"/>
OPEC+ roiled markets earlier this year by reversing its longstanding policy of defending prices and raised output, seeking to reclaim market share as countries including Brazil and Guyana boosted supply and the US pumped at record levels. The producer group is expected to hold off on output hikes during talks this weekend.
<div class="lb-trans">OPEC+ 在今年早些時候通過逆轉長期以來捍衞價格的政策並提高產量，攪動了市場， 試圖重新奪回市場份額，因為包括巴西和圭亞那在內的國家增加了供應，而美國的產量達到了歷史高位。預計該生產集團將在本週末的談判中暫停增產。
</div>A punishing surplus is expected to weigh on prices in 2026 - Global oil markets have been been oversupplied this year.
<div class="lb-trans">預計懲罰性的過剩將在 2026 年對價格施加壓力 - 全球石油市場今年供應過剩。
</div><blockquote>
“The oil market is set to remain oversupplied into 2026, with strong non-OPEC production from the US, Brazil, Guyana and Argentina outpacing uneven global demand,” said Kaynat Chainwala, an analyst at Kotak Securities Ltd. Prices should stay range-bound between $50 and $70, with risks over Venezuelan or Russian supply remaining supportive, she added.
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
“油市預計將在 2026 年繼續過剩，美國、巴西、圭亞那和阿根廷的強勁非 OPEC 產量將超過不均衡的全球需求，” Kotak Securities Ltd.的分析師 Kaynat Chainwala 表示。她補充説，價格應保持在 50 到 70 美元之間，委內瑞拉或俄羅斯供應的風險仍將支持價格。
</blockquote>
</div>Both the International Energy Agency and the US government see production exceeding consumption by just over 2 million barrels a day in 2025 and that surplus worsening in the coming year.
<div class="lb-trans">國際能源署和美國政府均預計，2025 年生產將超過消費超過 200 萬桶/天，而這一過剩在未來一年將進一步惡化。
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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<div class="lb-trans">星巴克將在紐約市關閉約 400 家門店，其中 40 多家在紐約市。
</div>FOMC Minutes Confirm 'Most' Fed Officials Expect More Rate-Cuts, Divisions Remain
<div class="lb-trans">FOMC 紀要確認 “多數” 美聯儲官員預計將進一步降息，內部存在分歧。
</div>Meta &#34;Joining Forces&#34; With China-Founded Manus AI In $2 Billion Deal
<div class="lb-trans">Meta 與中國創立的 Manus AI 達成 20 億美元交易，&#34;聯手合作&#34;。
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由於美國原油產量創下歷史新高，石油正面臨自 COVID 以來最嚴重的年度損失