<p>比特幣（[BTC]）的價格表現持續承壓，目前較其歷史最高點 126,000 美元下跌約 32%，過去一年下跌 5.6%。</p>
<p>10 月 10 日的賣壓加劇，並在 2025 年第四季度持續存在，價格在下行趨勢中逐漸走低，最終在 85,000 美元到 90,000 美元之間的區間內穩定下來。</p>
<p>現在的關鍵問題是，這一下行趨勢是否會延續到 2026 年第一季度。</p>
<p>儘管整體市場的樂觀情緒仍然有限，但一些鏈上和機構信號表明，市場情緒可能接近轉折點。AMBCrypto 分析了影響這一前景的因素。</p>
<h2>長期投資者暫停分配</h2>
<p>市場前景開始顯示出早期穩定的跡象。</p>
<p>長期比特幣持有者——定義為持有超過六個月未花費交易輸出（UTXO）的地址——開始改變行為。</p>
<p>這一羣體自 7 月以來一直在向市場分配比特幣，現在似乎已暫停出售。</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 的數據表明，長期持有者在一天內從出售 674,000 個比特幣（價值 598 億美元）轉為購買 10,700 個比特幣。</p>
<p>雖然這尚未確認持續的積累，但標誌着定位的顯著變化，並表明長期投資者可能正在減少賣方壓力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>短期和零售行為支持這一觀點。跟蹤比特幣在集中交易所的流入和流出情況的交易所淨流量數據顯示，12 月的流出量超過了流入量。</p>
<p>到目前為止，已有超過 40 億美元被投入到比特幣購買中，而在 12 月 29 日那周，有價值 2.94 億美元的比特幣從交易所撤出。</p>
<p>這些動向共同指向一個潛在的穩定階段，即便比特幣仍在一個明確的區間內交易。</p>
<h2>ETF 流動信號機構情緒轉變</h2>
<p>美國投資者的活動仍然是更廣泛市場方向的關鍵晴雨表。</p>
<p>根據 CoinGlass 的數據，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFs）在 12 月 17 日至 29 日期間記錄了持續的流出，機構投資者從市場撤回了 11.2 億美元。</p>
<p>然而，當價值 3.35 億美元的比特幣流入 ETF 時，情緒發生了轉變，這標誌着自 10 月 21 日以來的第三大單日流入。這一逆轉表明，機構賣壓可能正在減輕。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CoinGlass</p>
<p>在零售層面，情緒尚未跟隨相同的軌跡。</p>
<p>Coinbase 溢價指數跟蹤美國交易所 Coinbase 與全球交易所 Binance 之間的比特幣價格差異，仍然為負值。</p>
<p>截至發稿時，該指數為-0.09，表明美國零售參與者的需求較弱，儘管機構流入有所改善，仍然保持謹慎。</p>
<h2>數字資產財庫公司提供長期支持</h2>
<p>數字資產財庫公司可能在平衡市場情緒方面發揮越來越重要的作用。</p>
<p>根據 CoinGecko 的數據，自其出現以來，這一羣體已累計比特幣持有量達到 1524 億美元，約為 117.5 萬個比特幣。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，這些實體在比特幣價格下跌時仍繼續增持。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>Strategy 持有的企業比特幣財庫價值 597 億美元，在 2025 年僅收購了其總比特幣持有量的三分之一，支出約 220 億美元。</p>
<p>如果這種增持速度在市場條件改善的情況下持續下去，比特幣可能會迎來更強的復甦階段。</p>
<p>目前，短期內的看跌壓力仍主導市場情緒。恐懼與貪婪指數保持在 32，反映出市場環境的恐懼。</p>
<p>情緒的更廣泛轉變，加上對支持性宏觀和監管條件的共識——例如對補充槓桿率的增強——可能改善市場流動性，併為 2026 年第一季度的持續上漲提供基礎。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>隨着新年的臨近，比特幣的看漲動態逐漸成形，長期持有者減緩了分配。</em></li>
<li><em>數字資產財庫公司正在成為潛在的穩定力量，監管透明度和政策一致性為長期支持提供了保障。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>比特幣的價格承壓，較峯值下跌 32%，在 85,000 美元到 90,000 美元之間波動。長期持有者已暫停出售，轉向購買，顯示出潛在的穩定跡象。機構情緒複雜，近期的 ETF 資金流入表明賣壓有所緩解。然而，零售需求依然疲軟。數字資產財 treasury 公司正在積累比特幣，為長期提供支持。市場情緒仍然看跌，但監管透明度可能在 2026 年第一季度促進復甦</p>

<p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] price performance has remained under pressure, with the asset down roughly 32% from its all-time high of $126,000 and lower by 5.6% over the past year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣（[BTC]）的價格表現持續承壓，目前較其歷史最高點 126,000 美元下跌約 32%，過去一年下跌 5.6%。</p>
</div><p>Selling pressure intensified on the 10th of October and persisted throughout the fourth quarter of 2025, as prices trended lower before settling into a range-bound zone between $85,000 and $90,000 on the chart.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>10 月 10 日的賣壓加劇，並在 2025 年第四季度持續存在，價格在下行趨勢中逐漸走低，最終在 85,000 美元到 90,000 美元之間的區間內穩定下來。</p>
</div><p>The key question now is whether this downtrend will extend into Q1 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在的關鍵問題是，這一下行趨勢是否會延續到 2026 年第一季度。</p>
</div><p>While broader market optimism remains limited, several on-chain and institutional signals suggest that sentiment may be nearing a turning point. AMBCrypto examines the factors shaping this outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管整體市場的樂觀情緒仍然有限，但一些鏈上和機構信號表明，市場情緒可能接近轉折點。AMBCrypto 分析了影響這一前景的因素。</p>
</div><h2>Long-term investors pause distribution</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>長期投資者暫停分配</h2>
</div><p>The outlook has started to show early signs of stabilization.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場前景開始顯示出早期穩定的跡象。</p>
</div><p>Long-term Bitcoin holders—defined as addresses with unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) older than six months—have begun to shift behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>長期比特幣持有者——定義為持有超過六個月未花費交易輸出（UTXO）的地址——開始改變行為。</p>
</div><p>This cohort, which had been distributing Bitcoin to the market since July, appears to have paused selling.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一羣體自 7 月以來一直在向市場分配比特幣，現在似乎已暫停出售。</p>
</div><p>Data from CryptoQuant showed that long-term holders moved from selling 674,000 BTC worth $59.8 billion to purchasing 10,700 BTC within a single day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 的數據表明，長期持有者在一天內從出售 674,000 個比特幣（價值 598 億美元）轉為購買 10,700 個比特幣。</p>
</div><p>While this does not yet confirm sustained accumulation, it marks a notable change in positioning and suggests that long-term investors may now be reducing sell-side pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這尚未確認持續的積累，但標誌着定位的顯著變化，並表明長期投資者可能正在減少賣方壓力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/98CC137D-CF5F-4D71-9FD1-3DF3DB9796E4.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Short-term and retail behavior supports this view. Exchange Netflow data, which tracks Bitcoin inflows and outflows from centralized exchanges, shows that outflows exceeded inflows throughout December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期和零售行為支持這一觀點。跟蹤比特幣在集中交易所的流入和流出情況的交易所淨流量數據顯示，12 月的流出量超過了流入量。</p>
</div><p>So far, more than $4 billion has been deployed into Bitcoin purchases, with $294 million worth of BTC withdrawn from exchanges during the week starting from the 29th of December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，已有超過 40 億美元被投入到比特幣購買中，而在 12 月 29 日那周，有價值 2.94 億美元的比特幣從交易所撤出。</p>
</div><p>Together, these movements point to a potential stabilization phase, even as Bitcoin continues to trade within a well-defined range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些動向共同指向一個潛在的穩定階段，即便比特幣仍在一個明確的區間內交易。</p>
</div><h2>ETF flows signal shifting institutional sentiment</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>ETF 流動信號機構情緒轉變</h2>
</div><p>Activity from U.S.-based investors remains a key barometer of broader market direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國投資者的活動仍然是更廣泛市場方向的關鍵晴雨表。</p>
</div><p>According to CoinGlass data, U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded consistent outflows between the 17th to the 29th of December, with institutional investors pulling $1.12 billion from the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CoinGlass 的數據，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETFs）在 12 月 17 日至 29 日期間記錄了持續的流出，機構投資者從市場撤回了 11.2 億美元。</p>
</div><p>However, sentiment shifted when $335 million worth of Bitcoin flowed back into ETFs, marking the third-largest daily inflow since the 21st of October. This reversal suggests that institutional selling pressure may be easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，當價值 3.35 億美元的比特幣流入 ETF 時，情緒發生了轉變，這標誌着自 10 月 21 日以來的第三大單日流入。這一逆轉表明，機構賣壓可能正在減輕。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-31-at-1.40.17PM.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CoinGlass</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CoinGlass</p>
</div><p>At the retail level, sentiment has not yet followed the same trajectory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在零售層面，情緒尚未跟隨相同的軌跡。</p>
</div><p>The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on U.S.-based exchange Coinbase and global exchange Binance, remains negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Coinbase 溢價指數跟蹤美國交易所 Coinbase 與全球交易所 Binance 之間的比特幣價格差異，仍然為負值。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the index was -0.09, indicating weaker demand from U.S. retail participants and continued caution despite improving institutional flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至發稿時，該指數為-0.09，表明美國零售參與者的需求較弱，儘管機構流入有所改善，仍然保持謹慎。</p>
</div><h2>Digital asset treasury firms provide longer-term support</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>數字資產財庫公司提供長期支持</h2>
</div><p>Digital asset treasury firms could play an increasingly important role in balancing market sentiment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>數字資產財庫公司可能在平衡市場情緒方面發揮越來越重要的作用。</p>
</div><p>Since their emergence, this group has accumulated Bitcoin holdings valued at $152.4 billion, representing approximately 1.175 million BTC, according to CoinGecko.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CoinGecko 的數據，自其出現以來，這一羣體已累計比特幣持有量達到 1524 億美元，約為 117.5 萬個比特幣。</p>
</div><p>Notably, these entities continued to accumulate even as Bitcoin prices declined.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，這些實體在比特幣價格下跌時仍繼續增持。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/0373A487-EDC2-4D40-83F9-C9020D72978E.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>Strategy, which holds the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury valued at $59.7 billion, acquired more than one-third of its total BTC holdings in 2025 alone, spending roughly $22 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 持有的企業比特幣財庫價值 597 億美元，在 2025 年僅收購了其總比特幣持有量的三分之一，支出約 220 億美元。</p>
</div><p>If this pace of accumulation continues alongside improving market conditions, Bitcoin could see a stronger recovery phase.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這種增持速度在市場條件改善的情況下持續下去，比特幣可能會迎來更強的復甦階段。</p>
</div><p>For now, bearish pressure still dominates near-term sentiment. The Fear and Greed Index remains at 32, reflecting a fearful market environment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，短期內的看跌壓力仍主導市場情緒。恐懼與貪婪指數保持在 32，反映出市場環境的恐懼。</p>
</div><p>A broader shift in sentiment, combined with alignment around supportive macro and regulatory conditions—such as enhancements to the supplementary leverage ratio—could improve market liquidity and provide the foundation for a sustained upside move in Q1.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>情緒的更廣泛轉變，加上對支持性宏觀和監管條件的共識——例如對補充槓桿率的增強——可能改善市場流動性，併為 2026 年第一季度的持續上漲提供基礎。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s bullish dynamics are gradually taking shape as the new year approaches, with long-term holders slowing distribution.</em></li>
<li><em>Digital asset treasury firms are emerging as a potential stabilizing force, with regulatory clarity and policy alignment adding longer-term support.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>隨着新年的臨近，比特幣的看漲動態逐漸成形，長期持有者減緩了分配。</em></li>
<li><em>數字資產財庫公司正在成為潛在的穩定力量，監管透明度和政策一致性為長期支持提供了保障。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特幣在 2026 年第一季度的趨勢：隨着長期持有者的購買行為和 ETF 資金流動的變化，空頭是否會繼續掌控市場？