<p>55 美元的水平在輕質原油市場上一直是一個重要的支撐位。</p>
<h3><strong>原油</strong></h3>
<p>在 12 月份，原油市場總體表現消極，我們繼續密切關注下行趨勢線。但更重要的是，我認為我們將繼續關注 55 美元的水平。55 美元的水平在輕質原油市場上一直是一個主要的支撐位，我認為這仍然是一個主要的爭奪戰場。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp"/></p>
<p>我們是否能夠跌破這個水平，仍然是一個待解答的問題，但我一點也不驚訝在 1 月份看到與 11 月和 12 月相似的走勢。坦率地説，過去幾個月市場上唯一的生機來自於對俄羅斯的新制裁。而這種看漲行為幾乎立即被壓制。</p>
<h3><strong>主要阻力</strong></h3>
<p>這表明 62 美元的水平是一個主要的阻力位，我認為需要某種外部壓力才能突破。我還相信，從週期性角度來看，1 月份的表現將相對疲軟，因為通常情況下，1 月份的市場表現會比較軟。所有因素相等，我認為 1 月份的表現將與我們看到的原油市場整體表現相同，每當出現某種反彈時，你都應該在首次出現疲軟跡象時賣出。</p>
<p>我不想在短期內做多原油，因為我們有大量的供應來自圭亞那和美國，僅舉這兩個地方。換句話説，市場上充斥着原油，因此認為價格會在短期內上漲是違反直覺的。是的，我認為對俄羅斯會有更多的制裁，但歸根結底，俄羅斯的石油仍然會流入歐洲和亞洲，甚至在較小程度上流入美國。所以，這一切都是一個空殼遊戲。市場上有大量的原油，我認為我們仍然會看到大量的賣壓。</p>
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<p>WTI 原油市場目前在 55 美元水平面臨顯著的支撐位，預計在 2026 年 1 月將繼續成為爭奪戰場。儘管近期對俄羅斯的制裁帶來了短暫的看漲行為，但市場整體呈現負面趨勢，62 美元是主要阻力位。由於季節性趨勢，1 月份預計將表現疲軟，加上來自圭亞那和美國等地區的供應充足，價格不太可能很快上漲。隨着市場仍然過剩，賣壓預計將持續</p>

<p>The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>55 美元的水平在輕質原油市場上一直是一個重要的支撐位。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Crude Oil</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>原油</strong></h3>
</div><p>Crude oil markets have been generally negative during December as we continue to pay close attention to a downtrend line. But perhaps more importantly, I think we're going to continue to pay a lot of attention to the $55 level. The $55 level has been a major floor in the light sweet crude oil market, and I think that continues to be a major battleground.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 12 月份，原油市場總體表現消極，我們繼續密切關注下行趨勢線。但更重要的是，我認為我們將繼續關注 55 美元的水平。55 美元的水平在輕質原油市場上一直是一個主要的支撐位，我認為這仍然是一個主要的爭奪戰場。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp" alt="" original-src="https://www.dailyforex.com/files/oilweek31-12-2025.webp"/></p>
<p>Whether or not we can break down below, there is still a question that remains to be answered, but I would not be surprised at all to see more of the same action in January that we have seen in both November and December. Quite frankly, the only sign of life in this market over the last couple of months has been due to new sanctions against Russia. And that bullish behavior was squashed almost immediately.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們是否能夠跌破這個水平，仍然是一個待解答的問題，但我一點也不驚訝在 1 月份看到與 11 月和 12 月相似的走勢。坦率地説，過去幾個月市場上唯一的生機來自於對俄羅斯的新制裁。而這種看漲行為幾乎立即被壓制。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Major Resistance</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>主要阻力</strong></h3>
</div><p>This has shown that the $62 level is a major resistance barrier that I think is going to take some type of external pressure to break above. I also believe that January will end up being fairly weak from a cyclical standpoint as well, as typically speaking, January is somewhat soft. All things being equal, I think that January will behave in the same way we have seen the oil market behave in general, that anytime we get some type of rally, you're looking to sell the first signs of exhaustion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這表明 62 美元的水平是一個主要的阻力位，我認為需要某種外部壓力才能突破。我還相信，從週期性角度來看，1 月份的表現將相對疲軟，因為通常情況下，1 月份的市場表現會比較軟。所有因素相等，我認為 1 月份的表現將與我們看到的原油市場整體表現相同，每當出現某種反彈時，你都應該在首次出現疲軟跡象時賣出。</p>
</div><p>I do not want to get long of oil anytime soon because we do have massive amounts of supply coming out of Guyana and the United States, just to name a couple of places. In other words, the market is awash in oil, and therefore, it's counterintuitive to think that prices will rise anytime soon. Yes, there will be more sanctions against Russia, would be my bet, but really, at the end of the day, Russian oil still ends up in Europe and Asia, and to a lesser extent, even the United States. So, it's all a shell game. We have plenty of oil out there. I think we continue to see a lot of overhang as far as selling pressure is concerned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我不想在短期內做多原油，因為我們有大量的供應來自圭亞那和美國，僅舉這兩個地方。換句話説，市場上充斥着原油，因此認為價格會在短期內上漲是違反直覺的。是的，我認為對俄羅斯會有更多的制裁，但歸根結底，俄羅斯的石油仍然會流入歐洲和亞洲，甚至在較小程度上流入美國。所以，這一切都是一個空殼遊戲。市場上有大量的原油，我認為我們仍然會看到大量的賣壓。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
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2026 年 1 月 WTI 原油價格預測