<p>英偉達的爆炸性增長帶來了一個新的挑戰：如何在一個規模本身已成為監管約束的世界中部署前所未有的現金。下面的圖表來自《華爾街日報》，展示了英偉達巨大的自由現金流增長。然而，考慮到對人工智能基礎設施和市場主導地位的高度審查，傳統的現金使用方式，如大型收購，變得越來越困難。英偉達的現金策略現在受到監管和機會的共同影響。</p>
<p>這種動態有助於解釋英偉達最近與人工智能初創公司 Groq 達成的 200 億美元 “非獨佔許可協議”。英偉達並沒有追求完全收購，而是將交易結構化，以便在不觸發可能伴隨全面收購的監管障礙的情況下獲得人才和推理技術。實際上，英偉達的現金策略已轉向創造性合作伙伴關係和許可安排，以避免反壟斷的衝突。</p>
<p>然而，監管機構可能會面臨越來越大的政治壓力，以顯示靈活性。全球對人工智能芯片領導地位的競爭正在加劇，特別是美國希望在與中國的競爭中保持優勢。過於嚴格地限制英偉達的投資、招聘或合作能力，可能會削弱美國在這一戰略關鍵行業中的地位。雖然反壟斷審查不太可能消失，但人工智能芯片的地緣政治重要性可能會導致在邊緣上更寬鬆的執法。</p>
<p>對於投資者來説，英偉達的現金策略更多的是關於保持其競爭優勢，而不是財務過剩。隨着人工智能工作負載越來越多地從訓練轉向推理，獲取專業技術和工程人才將與原始計算能力同樣重要。英偉達在有效部署資本的同時，如何應對監管，最終可能決定其在人工智能生態系統中維持主導地位的時間長短。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Free-Cash-Flow-12.31.25.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="689" height="555" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Free-Cash-Flow-12.31.25.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今日關注</strong></h3>
<p><strong>財報</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><em>今天沒有財報發佈</em></li>
</ul>
<p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28-1024x75.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="75" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28-1024x75.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
<p>首先，祝大家新年快樂（和繁榮）。正如我們在 <strong><em>之前的評論</em></strong> 中討論的那樣，2025 年確實是投資者的又一個繁榮年。下面的表格顯示了各種資產類別的價格回報。雖然貴金屬在圖表中略顯偏差，但只有比特幣和美元在這一年中出現了下跌。<em>(並不是每個人都能成為贏家。)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="463" height="366" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png"/></p>
<p>當然，當我們展望 2026 年時，每個人都在問最需要關注的重大風險是什麼。德意志銀行最近對投資者的調查顯示了以下結果。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="750" height="444" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png"/></p>
<p>哪個會是_“顛覆蘋果車” 的_？</p>
<p><strong>最可能的答案是，它們都不會。</strong> 這是因為當投資者監測某種風險時，他們會對投資組合進行調整以對沖該風險。因此，該 “風險” 會被定價到市場中。最有可能的是，最終顯現的風險將是沒有人預料到的。這個_“驚喜”_就是導致市場動盪的原因。考慮一下去年三月特朗普的關税公告；投資者不得不對市場進行重大重新定價，以應對盈利預期的快速變化。</p>
<p>此外，投資者對超額回報變得極為自滿。看看自 2019 年以來市場的總年回報。</p>
<ul>
<li>2019 +31.2%</li>
<li>2020 +18.0%</li>
<li>2021 +28.5%</li>
<li>2022 -18.0%</li>
<li>2023 +26.1%</li>
<li>2024 +24.9%</li>
<li>2025 +17.8%</li>
</ul>
<p>雖然這些回報非常健康，但它們與經濟增長的基本驅動因素脱節，這就是為什麼近年來估值大幅上升的原因。</p>
<p>我最好的猜測是，2026 年將看到在 2025 年表現最佳的資產類別出現相當不錯的逆轉，因為經濟增長放緩，資金可能會轉向市場中更具防禦性的領域。</p>
<p>但也許不會。也許 2026 年將繼續出現投資者投機的激增。</p>
<p>任何事情都是可能的；然而，從謹慎的投資組合管理角度來看，傾向於謹慎將有助於你應對明年出現的任何突發風暴。</p>
<h3><strong>小型和中型股票是否準備復甦？</strong></h3>
<p>我們以回顧 2025 年股票表現開始 2026 年，重點關注規模和風格因素。下面的 SimpleVisor 圖形顯示，2025 年大盤股在各個方面佔據主導地位。在大盤股類別中，成長股的表現顯著優於價值股。考慮到過去一年市場的驚人表現，這並不奇怪。然而，令人不尋常的是，大盤股去年對小型和中型股票的超額表現程度。這引發了一個問題：小型和中型股票今年會經歷復甦，還是表現差距將繼續擴大？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Equity-Returns-by-Size-and-Style-12.31.25-1-1024x297.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="297" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Equity-Returns-by-Size-and-Style-12.31.25-1-1024x297.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>投資者的市場波動策略</strong></h3>
<p>在波動時期，投資心理可能會劫持良好的判斷。損失厭惡使得下跌變得難以忍受。近期偏見讓投資者相信現在發生的事情將定義未來的結果。再加上對道瓊斯和 “潛在贏家” 的持續評論，你會從各個角度感受到情緒投資的壓力。</p>
<p>這就是風險厭惡型投資者特別脆弱的地方。當恐懼加劇時，許多投資者會在錯誤的時間放棄最初的投資計劃，轉向現金。然後，他們猶豫不決重新進入，這可能會損害長期回報。</p>
<p>解藥不是虛張聲勢，而是結構。一個設計良好的計劃可以降低在更大波動期間做出反應性投資決策的幾率。</p>
<p>閲讀更多…</p>
<h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Tweet-of-the-Day-01.02.26.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="574" height="672" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Tweet-of-the-Day-01.02.26.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>年初至今的回報突顯出市場的狹窄</p>
<p>電價可能成為結構性通脹問題</p>
<p>如果增長預測失敗，2026 年的市場風險</p>

2 倍做多英偉達 ETF - GraniteShares

南方兩倍做多英偉達

南方兩倍做空英偉達

英偉達期權收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英偉達 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>英偉達的現金策略正在因監管限制而演變，因為傳統的現金使用方式如收購正面臨審查。該公司最近與人工智能初創公司 Groq 達成了一項價值 200 億美元的許可協議，以在沒有監管障礙的情況下獲取技術。這一向合作伙伴關係的轉變旨在保持英偉達在人工智能領域的競爭優勢。隨着全球競爭的加劇，監管機構可能面臨放寬限制的壓力。投資者應注意，英偉達的策略側重於在有效應對監管的同時保持其市場地位，這對維持其在人工智能生態系統中的主導地位至關重要</p>

<p>Nvidia’s explosive growth has created a new challenge: how to deploy an unprecedented amount of cash in a world where scale itself has become a regulatory constraint. The chart below, from The <em>Wall Street Journal,</em> illustrates Nvidia’s massive free cash flow growth. However, traditional uses of its cash, such as large acquisitions, are increasingly difficult given heightened scrutiny around AI infrastructure and market dominance. Nvidia’s cash strategy is now being shaped as much by regulation as by opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英偉達的爆炸性增長帶來了一個新的挑戰：如何在一個規模本身已成為監管約束的世界中部署前所未有的現金。下面的圖表來自《華爾街日報》，展示了英偉達巨大的自由現金流增長。然而，考慮到對人工智能基礎設施和市場主導地位的高度審查，傳統的現金使用方式，如大型收購，變得越來越困難。英偉達的現金策略現在受到監管和機會的共同影響。</p>
</div><p>That dynamic helps explain Nvidia’s recent $20 billion “nonexclusive licensing agreement” with AI startup Groq. Rather than pursuing a full acquisition, Nvidia structured the deal to gain access to talent and inferencing technology without triggering the regulatory hurdles that would likely accompany an outright takeover. In effect, Nvidia’s cash strategy has shifted toward creative partnerships and licensing arrangements that avoid antitrust flashpoints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種動態有助於解釋英偉達最近與人工智能初創公司 Groq 達成的 200 億美元 “非獨佔許可協議”。英偉達並沒有追求完全收購，而是將交易結構化，以便在不觸發可能伴隨全面收購的監管障礙的情況下獲得人才和推理技術。實際上，英偉達的現金策略已轉向創造性合作伙伴關係和許可安排，以避免反壟斷的衝突。</p>
</div><p>Regulators, however, may find themselves under growing political pressure to show flexibility. Global competition for AI chip leadership is intensifying, particularly as the U.S. seeks to maintain an edge over China. Aggressively constraining Nvidia’s ability to invest, hire, or partner risks undermining America’s position in a strategically critical industry. While antitrust scrutiny is unlikely to disappear, the geopolitical importance of AI chips could lead to more lenient enforcement at the margins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，監管機構可能會面臨越來越大的政治壓力，以顯示靈活性。全球對人工智能芯片領導地位的競爭正在加劇，特別是美國希望在與中國的競爭中保持優勢。過於嚴格地限制英偉達的投資、招聘或合作能力，可能會削弱美國在這一戰略關鍵行業中的地位。雖然反壟斷審查不太可能消失，但人工智能芯片的地緣政治重要性可能會導致在邊緣上更寬鬆的執法。</p>
</div><p>For investors, Nvidia’s cash strategy is less about financial excess and more about preserving its competitive moat. As AI workloads increasingly shift from training to inferencing, access to specialized technology and engineering talent will matter as much as raw compute. Nvidia’s ability to navigate regulation while deploying capital effectively may ultimately determine how long it can sustain its dominance in the AI ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資者來説，英偉達的現金策略更多的是關於保持其競爭優勢，而不是財務過剩。隨着人工智能工作負載越來越多地從訓練轉向推理，獲取專業技術和工程人才將與原始計算能力同樣重要。英偉達在有效部署資本的同時，如何應對監管，最終可能決定其在人工智能生態系統中維持主導地位的時間長短。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Free-Cash-Flow-12.31.25.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Free-Cash-Flow-12.31.25.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>What To Watch Today</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日關注</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Earnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>財報</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><em>No earnings releases today</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>今天沒有財報發佈</em></li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>Economy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28-1024x75.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-28-1024x75.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Trading Update</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
</div><p>First, let me wish you a very Happy (and prosperous) New Year. As discussed in our <strong><em>previous commentary</em></strong>, 2025 was indeed another prosperous year for investors. The table below shows the price returns for various asset classes. While precious metals skew the chart somewhat, only Bitcoin and the US dollar noted declines for the year. <em>(Not everyone can be a winner.)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，祝大家新年快樂（和繁榮）。正如我們在 <strong><em>之前的評論</em></strong> 中討論的那樣，2025 年確實是投資者的又一個繁榮年。下面的表格顯示了各種資產類別的價格回報。雖然貴金屬在圖表中略顯偏差，但只有比特幣和美元在這一年中出現了下跌。<em>(並不是每個人都能成為贏家。)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-27.png"/></p>
<p>Of course, as we look forward into 2026, everyone is asking what the most significant risk to look out for is. A recent survey of Deutsche Bank’s investors revealed the following.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當然，當我們展望 2026 年時，每個人都在問最需要關注的重大風險是什麼。德意志銀行最近對投資者的調查顯示了以下結果。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-29.png"/></p>
<p>Which one will it be that <em>“derails the apple cart?”</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>哪個會是_“顛覆蘋果車” 的_？</p>
</div><p><strong>The most likely answer is that it will be none of them.</strong> This is because when investors are monitoring some risk, they make portfolio changes to hedge against that risk. Therefore, that “risk” becomes priced into the market. Most likely, the risk that eventually manifests itself will be something that no one is expecting. That <em>“surprise”</em> is what causes markets to buckle. Consider Trump’s tariff announcement last March; investors had to materially reprice the markets for a rapid change in forward expectations of earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>最可能的答案是，它們都不會。</strong> 這是因為當投資者監測某種風險時，他們會對投資組合進行調整以對沖該風險。因此，該 “風險” 會被定價到市場中。最有可能的是，最終顯現的風險將是沒有人預料到的。這個_“驚喜”_就是導致市場動盪的原因。考慮一下去年三月特朗普的關税公告；投資者不得不對市場進行重大重新定價，以應對盈利預期的快速變化。</p>
</div><p>Furthermore, investors have become extremely complacent about above-average returns. Take a look at the total annual returns of the market since 2019.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投資者對超額回報變得極為自滿。看看自 2019 年以來市場的總年回報。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>2019 +31.2%</li>
<li>2020 +18.0%</li>
<li>2021 +28.5%</li>
<li>2022 -18.0%</li>
<li>2023 +26.1%</li>
<li>2024 +24.9%</li>
<li>2025 +17.8%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>2019 +31.2%</li>
<li>2020 +18.0%</li>
<li>2021 +28.5%</li>
<li>2022 -18.0%</li>
<li>2023 +26.1%</li>
<li>2024 +24.9%</li>
<li>2025 +17.8%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>While those returns have been very healthy, they are detached from the underlying drivers of economic growth, which is why valuations have risen so much in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然這些回報非常健康，但它們與經濟增長的基本驅動因素脱節，這就是為什麼近年來估值大幅上升的原因。</p>
</div><p>My best guess is that 2026 will see a fairly decent reversal in the asset classes that performed the best in 2025 as economic growth slows, and money will likely rotate to more defensive areas of the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我最好的猜測是，2026 年將看到在 2025 年表現最佳的資產類別出現相當不錯的逆轉，因為經濟增長放緩，資金可能會轉向市場中更具防禦性的領域。</p>
</div><p>But maybe not. Perhaps 2026 will see a continued surge in rampant investor speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但也許不會。也許 2026 年將繼續出現投資者投機的激增。</p>
</div><p>Anything is certainly possible; however, from a prudent portfolio management perspective, erring to the side of caution will likely help you weather whatever sudden storms appear next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何事情都是可能的；然而，從謹慎的投資組合管理角度來看，傾向於謹慎將有助於你應對明年出現的任何突發風暴。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Are Small and Mid-cap Stocks Poised for a Comeback?</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>小型和中型股票是否準備復甦？</strong></h3>
</div><p>We kick off 2026 with a review of 2025 equity performance, focusing on size and style factors. The SimpleVisor graphic below shows that large-cap stocks dominated across the board in 2025. Within the large-cap size cohort, growth stocks outperformed value stocks significantly. That’s not unusual given the incredible market performance over the past year. What <em>is</em> unusual, however, is the degree to which large-cap stocks outperformed small- and mid-cap stocks last year. This raises the question: Will small- and mid-cap stocks experience a resurgence this year, or will the performance gap continue expanding?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們以回顧 2025 年股票表現開始 2026 年，重點關注規模和風格因素。下面的 SimpleVisor 圖形顯示，2025 年大盤股在各個方面佔據主導地位。在大盤股類別中，成長股的表現顯著優於價值股。考慮到過去一年市場的驚人表現，這並不奇怪。然而，令人不尋常的是，大盤股去年對小型和中型股票的超額表現程度。這引發了一個問題：小型和中型股票今年會經歷復甦，還是表現差距將繼續擴大？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Equity-Returns-by-Size-and-Style-12.31.25-1-1024x297.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Equity-Returns-by-Size-and-Style-12.31.25-1-1024x297.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Volatility Strategies for Investors</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>投資者的市場波動策略</strong></h3>
</div><p>In volatile periods, investment psychology can hijack good judgment. Loss aversion makes declines feel unbearable. Recency bias convinces investors that what’s happening now will define future results. Add constant commentary about the Dow Jones and “potential winners,” and you get emotional investing pressure from every angle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在波動時期，投資心理可能會劫持良好的判斷。損失厭惡使得下跌變得難以忍受。近期偏見讓投資者相信現在發生的事情將定義未來的結果。再加上對道瓊斯和 “潛在贏家” 的持續評論，你會從各個角度感受到情緒投資的壓力。</p>
</div><p>This is where risk averse investors are especially vulnerable. When fear spikes, many investors abandon their originally invested plan and shift into cash at the wrong time. Then they hesitate to re-enter, which can damage long term returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這就是風險厭惡型投資者特別脆弱的地方。當恐懼加劇時，許多投資者會在錯誤的時間放棄最初的投資計劃，轉向現金。然後，他們猶豫不決重新進入，這可能會損害長期回報。</p>
</div><p>The antidote is not bravado. It is structure. A well designed plan reduces the odds of reactive investment decisions during greater volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>解藥不是虛張聲勢，而是結構。一個設計良好的計劃可以降低在更大波動期間做出反應性投資決策的幾率。</p>
</div><p>READ MORE…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀更多…</p>
</div><h3><strong>Tweet of the Day</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Tweet-of-the-Day-01.02.26.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Tweet-of-the-Day-01.02.26.png"/></p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>YTD Returns Highlight A Narrow Market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年初至今的回報突顯出市場的狹窄</p>
</div><p>Electricity Prices Could Become A Structural Inflation Problem</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>電價可能成為結構性通脹問題</p>
</div><p>The Market Risk In 2026 If Growth Projections Fail</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果增長預測失敗，2026 年的市場風險</p>
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