<p>當彼得·蒂爾採取行動時，往往引人注目。他是 <strong>首次投資 Facebook</strong> 的人，後來 Facebook 變成了 Meta，幫助創建了 PayPal，當時金融科技時代仍處於初期階段，他還 <strong>創立了 Palantir</strong>。</p>
<p>蒂爾的名字並不與炒作相符，相反，他總是第一個到達並在眾人意識到之前就離開。這無疑引發了投資者的疑問，他看到了什麼是其他人所沒有的。</p>
<h2>為什麼蒂爾的投資組合變動如此重要</h2>
<p>由於彼得·蒂爾的對沖基金 Thiel Macro 超過 <strong>1 億美元</strong>，它必須通過向美國證券交易委員會提交季度 Form 13F 報告來披露其股權持有情況。</p>
<p>這些報告在每個季度結束後公開 45 天，提供了對這位最具影響力的投資者如何定位自己的獨特洞察。</p>
<p>最新的信息代表截至 9 月 30 日的股票情況，即使市場變化迅速，蒂爾的決策規模仍然證明了其在幾個月後仍值得審視。</p>
<h2>離開特斯拉和英偉達</h2>
<p>在第二季度末，蒂爾持有超過 <strong>272,613 股</strong> 特斯拉和 <strong>537,000 股英偉達</strong>。到第三季度結束時，這一情況發生了根本性的變化。他持有的特斯拉股票數量減少到約 65,000 股，而英偉達的股票則 <strong>完全清空</strong>。</p>
<p>考慮到英偉達在人工智能市場中的關鍵角色以及其在 AI 投資者中幾乎具有魔力的吸引力，英偉達的股票出售尤為戲劇化。</p>
<p>然而，蒂爾並沒有完全放棄科技。與其選擇醫療或工業等更安全的領域，他將資金投入了兩家知名的大型公司，即蘋果和微軟。這一舉動並不意味着他放棄了人工智能，而是更好地從中獲利。</p>
<h2>蘋果並不是主要賭注</h2>
<p>蘋果出現在名單上是意外的，因為到目前為止，它的人工智能計劃並未成功吸引投資者的興趣。儘管該公司表示將更廣泛地參與人工智能，但仍落後於那些全力開發基於人工智能的產品和服務的競爭對手。</p>
<p>考慮到蘋果目前的情況，蒂爾在購買該股票時很可能並沒有直接押注於人工智能，除非他知道其他投資者所不知道的事情。這種不確定性使得蘋果成為交易中較不具吸引力的一方。</p>
<h2>微軟的複雜歷史</h2>
<p>微軟已經被納入蒂爾的投資組合，並且是他投資的一部分。然而，他與該股票的關係並不穩定。在 2024 年第四季度末，他沒有持有微軟的股票。</p>
<p>在第一季度，他 <strong>收購了約 80,000 股</strong>，在第二季度賣掉了全部頭寸，然後在第三季度以近 50,000 股的數量回歸。自 9 月 30 日以來，微軟的股票下跌了約 6%，仍比 6 月底的價格低約 2%。</p>
<p>這一回調意味着，蒂爾的時機現在看起來確實比交易首次出現在文件中時要好。如果他的信念足夠強烈以至於堅持持有，那麼可以説當前的價格比他最初選擇的價格更具吸引力。</p>
<h2>微軟的人工智能戰略</h2>
<p>微軟決定採取與其他公司不同的戰略。微軟通過與 OpenAI 的合作 <strong>邁出了巨大的步伐</strong>，獲得了 OpenAI Group, PBC 約 27% 的利潤份額。</p>
<p>這一合作為微軟提供了在其產品中應用最先進的人工智能的機會，而無需經歷模型開發的風險。</p>
<p>ChatGPT 已成為覆蓋微軟 Office 套件、Bing 搜索引擎和 Windows 操作系統的 Copilot 的驅動力。然而，OpenAI 並不是微軟唯一的人工智能合作伙伴。</p>
<p>通過其 Azure，微軟為用户提供了多個 <strong>人工智能模型</strong> 的訪問，包括 Anthropic 的 Claude、xAI 的 Grok、Meta 的 Llama、成本效益高的 <strong>DeepSeek 的 R1 模型</strong> 等。</p>
<p>這一系列模型使微軟不僅僅是某一模型的倡導者，而是一箇中立的平台，促進整個人工智能生態系統的增長。</p>
<h2>Azure 是明星</h2>
<p>這種中立戰略的優勢顯而易見。Azure 是微軟 2026 財年第一季度（截至 9 月 30 日）報告的 40% 增長率的主要貢獻者之一。</p>
<p>雲計算領域一直是整個微軟生態系統的核心，而以人工智能驅動的需求是賦予其更多時間和空間發展的關鍵因素。</p>
<p>微軟的人工智能基礎設施層戰略，選擇不去追求單一贏家，清楚地證明了公司的明智管理。如果 Azure 的增長率在 2026 年前保持如此高的水平，蒂爾的投資可能被視為更具洞察力而非矛盾。</p>
<h2>結論</h2>
<p>蒂爾並不是在追逐最明顯的人工智能贏家，相反，他似乎在支持那些從其他成功中獲益的公司。微軟作為人工智能賦能者而非僅僅參與者的區別，使其在快速飽和的市場中擁有了更多的優勢。</p>
<p>儘管強烈建議投資者不要盲目跟隨億萬富翁的交易，但蒂爾對微軟的信心重燃提醒我們，有時最聰明的人工智能投資並不是最顯而易見的。</p>

<p>億萬富翁彼得·蒂爾已經改變了他的投資策略，轉向微軟和蘋果，遠離特斯拉和英偉達，原因是人工智能的蓬勃發展。蒂爾的對沖基金 Thiel Macro 披露了其投資組合的重大變化，將特斯拉的股份從超過 272,000 股減少到約 65,000 股，並完全出售了英偉達的股份。儘管蘋果目前缺乏強大的人工智能產品，但蒂爾的投資表明他看到了潛力。微軟與 OpenAI 的合作以及強大的 Azure 雲平台使其具備增長潛力，預計將推動其 2026 財年第一季度收入增長 40%</p>

<p>When Peter Thiel makes a move, it is very noticeable. As he was the person who <strong>first invested in Facebook</strong>, which later on became Meta, assisted in the making of PayPal, the fintech era was still in its infancy, and he <strong>founded Palantir</strong> as well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當彼得·蒂爾採取行動時，往往引人注目。他是 <strong>首次投資 Facebook</strong> 的人，後來 Facebook 變成了 Meta，幫助創建了 PayPal，當時金融科技時代仍處於初期階段，他還 <strong>創立了 Palantir</strong>。</p>
</div><p>Thiel’s name does not align with hype, instead he is the one to arrive first and depart just before the crowd acknowledges it. This definitely raises questions among the investors that what does he see that others do not.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蒂爾的名字並不與炒作相符，相反，他總是第一個到達並在眾人意識到之前就離開。這無疑引發了投資者的疑問，他看到了什麼是其他人所沒有的。</p>
</div><h2>What Makes Thiel’s Portfolio Moves So Important</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>為什麼蒂爾的投資組合變動如此重要</h2>
</div><p>Due to Peter Thiel’s hedge fund, Thiel Macro, being over <strong>$100 million</strong>, it has to make its disclosure of equity holdings via quarterly Form 13F filings with the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於彼得·蒂爾的對沖基金 Thiel Macro 超過 <strong>1 億美元</strong>，它必須通過向美國證券交易委員會提交季度 Form 13F 報告來披露其股權持有情況。</p>
</div><p>These filings, which are open to the public for 45 days after each quarter end, give a unique insight into how one of the most influential investors is positioning himself.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些報告在每個季度結束後公開 45 天，提供了對這位最具影響力的投資者如何定位自己的獨特洞察。</p>
</div><p>The latest information represents stocks as of 30th September, and even if the markets change quickly, the magnitude of Thiel’s decisions still justifies their examination even after a few months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新的信息代表截至 9 月 30 日的股票情況，即使市場變化迅速，蒂爾的決策規模仍然證明了其在幾個月後仍值得審視。</p>
</div><h2>Leaving Tesla and Nvidia</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>離開特斯拉和英偉達</h2>
</div><p>Thiel’s holdings at the end of the second quarter included more than <strong>272,613 shares</strong> of Tesla and <strong>537,000 shares of Nvidia</strong>. By the time the third quarter was over, it had undergone a radical transformation. The number of Tesla shares he owned was reduced to about 65,000, while the Nvidia shares were <strong>completely eliminated</strong>.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第二季度末，蒂爾持有超過 <strong>272,613 股</strong> 特斯拉和 <strong>537,000 股英偉達</strong>。到第三季度結束時，這一情況發生了根本性的變化。他持有的特斯拉股票數量減少到約 65,000 股，而英偉達的股票則 <strong>完全清空</strong>。</p>
</div><p>The Nvidia share sale was particularly dramatic, considering the company’s crucial part in the artificial intelligence market and its almost magical appeal among AI investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到英偉達在人工智能市場中的關鍵角色以及其在 AI 投資者中幾乎具有魔力的吸引力，英偉達的股票出售尤為戲劇化。</p>
</div><p>However, Thiel did not entirely give up on technology. Instead of going for the safer sectors like healthcare or industrials, he put money into two well-known mega cap companies, which is Apple and Microsoft. This move does not indicate that he has given up on AI, but is a better way of earning from it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，蒂爾並沒有完全放棄科技。與其選擇醫療或工業等更安全的領域，他將資金投入了兩家知名的大型公司，即蘋果和微軟。這一舉動並不意味着他放棄了人工智能，而是更好地從中獲利。</p>
</div><h2>Apple is not the Main Bet</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>蘋果並不是主要賭注</h2>
</div><p>Apple’s arrival in the list was unexpected, as so far its AI plan has not managed to capture the investors’ interest. Even though the company has indicated a more extensive AI involvement, it still lags behind the competition that has gone all out with developing AI-based products and services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蘋果出現在名單上是意外的，因為到目前為止，它的人工智能計劃並未成功吸引投資者的興趣。儘管該公司表示將更廣泛地參與人工智能，但仍落後於那些全力開發基於人工智能的產品和服務的競爭對手。</p>
</div><p>Considering Apple’s current situation, it is very likely that Thiel was not betting directly on AI when buying the stock, unless he is aware of something that the rest of the investors do not know. This uncertainty makes Apple the less attractive side of the deal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到蘋果目前的情況，蒂爾在購買該股票時很可能並沒有直接押注於人工智能，除非他知道其他投資者所不知道的事情。這種不確定性使得蘋果成為交易中較不具吸引力的一方。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft’s Complicated History</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟的複雜歷史</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft has already been included in Thiel’s portfolio and was a part of his investments. However, he has not had a steady relationship with the stock. At the end of Q4 2024, he had no Microsoft shares in his possession.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟已經被納入蒂爾的投資組合，並且是他投資的一部分。然而，他與該股票的關係並不穩定。在 2024 年第四季度末，他沒有持有微軟的股票。</p>
</div><p>In Q1, he <strong>acquired around 80,000 shares</strong>, sold the entire position in Q2, and then came back in Q3 with nearly 50,000 shares. Microsoft’s stock has dropped about 6% since 30th September, and is still around 2% lower than its June-end price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第一季度，他 <strong>收購了約 80,000 股</strong>，在第二季度賣掉了全部頭寸，然後在第三季度以近 50,000 股的數量回歸。自 9 月 30 日以來，微軟的股票下跌了約 6%，仍比 6 月底的價格低約 2%。</p>
</div><p>This pullback means that Thiel’s timing may indeed look better now than when the trade first showed up in the documents. If his belief is strong enough for him to hold onto it, then arguably the current price is more inviting for him to enter than the one he initially picked.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一回調意味着，蒂爾的時機現在看起來確實比交易首次出現在文件中時要好。如果他的信念足夠強烈以至於堅持持有，那麼可以説當前的價格比他最初選擇的價格更具吸引力。</p>
</div><h2>Microsoft’s AI Strategy</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>微軟的人工智能戰略</h2>
</div><p>Microsoft has decided to go for a different approach in strategy than the others. Instead of building an in-house system, Microsoft took a <strong>giant step forward by partnering</strong> with OpenAI, and gained an approximate 27% stake in the profit-making OpenAI Group, PBC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟決定採取與其他公司不同的戰略。微軟通過與 OpenAI 的合作 <strong>邁出了巨大的步伐</strong>，獲得了 OpenAI Group, PBC 約 27% 的利潤份額。</p>
</div><p>The partnership provides Microsoft with the opportunity to apply the most advanced AI in its products without having to experience the model development risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一合作為微軟提供了在其產品中應用最先進的人工智能的機會，而無需經歷模型開發的風險。</p>
</div><p>ChatGPT has become the driving force of Copilot that covers Microsoft’s Office suite, Bing search engine, and the Windows operating system. Still, OpenAI does not represent the only AI friend of Microsoft.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ChatGPT 已成為覆蓋微軟 Office 套件、Bing 搜索引擎和 Windows 操作系統的 Copilot 的驅動力。然而，OpenAI 並不是微軟唯一的人工智能合作伙伴。</p>
</div><p>The company, through its Azure, provides users access to several <strong>AI models</strong>, including Claude by Anthropic, Grok by xAI, Llama from Meta, the cost-efficient <strong>R1 model from DeepSeek</strong>, and others.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通過其 Azure，微軟為用户提供了多個 <strong>人工智能模型</strong> 的訪問，包括 Anthropic 的 Claude、xAI 的 Grok、Meta 的 Llama、成本效益高的 <strong>DeepSeek 的 R1 模型</strong> 等。</p>
</div><p>This wide range of models give power not to Microsoft as an advocate for one model, but as a neutral platform that encourages the growth of the entire AI ecosystem.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一系列模型使微軟不僅僅是某一模型的倡導者，而是一箇中立的平台，促進整個人工智能生態系統的增長。</p>
</div><h2>Azure is the Star</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Azure 是明星</h2>
</div><p>The advantage of this neutral strategy can be observed. Azure was one of the main contributors to the 40% growth rate, which was reported for the first quarter of Microsoft’s fiscal 2026 period that was concluded on 30th September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種中立戰略的優勢顯而易見。Azure 是微軟 2026 財年第一季度（截至 9 月 30 日）報告的 40% 增長率的主要貢獻者之一。</p>
</div><p>The cloud sector has been the chief of the entire Microsoft ecosystem, and demand being AI-driven is the pivotal factor that is granting it more time and space to grow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雲計算領域一直是整個微軟生態系統的核心，而以人工智能驅動的需求是賦予其更多時間和空間發展的關鍵因素。</p>
</div><p>Microsoft’s infrastructure layer strategy for AI, instead of choosing a sole winner, is clear evidence of the company’s wise management. If Azure’s growth rate remains this high until 2026, Thiel’s bet could be considered more insightful than being conflicting.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>微軟的人工智能基礎設施層戰略，選擇不去追求單一贏家，清楚地證明了公司的明智管理。如果 Azure 的增長率在 2026 年前保持如此高的水平，蒂爾的投資可能被視為更具洞察力而非矛盾。</p>
</div><h2>Bottom Line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結論</h2>
</div><p>Thiel is not after the most apparent AI winners, instead he seems to be giving his support to the firm that gains from the success of others. The distinction of Microsoft being an AI enabler rather than just a participant gives it a lot more than just a commanding advantage in a rapidly saturating market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蒂爾並不是在追逐最明顯的人工智能贏家，相反，他似乎在支持那些從其他成功中獲益的公司。微軟作為人工智能賦能者而非僅僅參與者的區別，使其在快速飽和的市場中擁有了更多的優勢。</p>
</div><p>Although investors are strongly advised to not follow the trades of billionaires’ blindly, Thiel’s renewal of faith in Microsoft provides an attractive reminder that sometimes the smartest AI investment is not the most visible one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管強烈建議投資者不要盲目跟隨億萬富翁的交易，但蒂爾對微軟的信心重燃提醒我們，有時最聰明的人工智能投資並不是最顯而易見的。</p>
</div>

在人工智能熱潮中，億萬富翁彼得·蒂爾選擇了微軟，而非英偉達和特斯拉