<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>來源</em></p>
<p>以下是我本週遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
<p>本週，Michael Santoli 向金融界介紹了 David Snyder，他是真正的 “神秘經紀人”，也是他的一位消息來源，過去二十年裏定期且準確地預測了重要的市場轉折點。在他網站上的一份詳細報告中，Snyder 認為：“幾乎所有投資者用來判斷一個長期牛市即將結束的標準都已滿足。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="719" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
<p>與 Snyder 一樣，Jurrien Timmer 也指出：“回顧 1949-1968 年和 1982-2000 年的長期牛市，這一次似乎也進入了最後階段。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="353" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
<p>目前股市中最重要的晚期動態可能是科技投資週期。Callum Thomas 寫道：“隨着美國及全球對人工智能霸權的競爭加劇，科技行業的固定資產投資激增——擠壓了市場其他部分的資本支出。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="421" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>統計</strong></p>
<p>然而，這種支出對未來回報並不是一個好兆頭。《環球郵報》報道：“在 1968 年至 2007 年間，低資產增長公司的年均回報率為 26%，而高資產增長公司的回報率僅為微薄的 4%。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="430" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
<p>最後，隨着當前股市週期的老化，華爾街向一位在其輝煌職業生涯中成功駕馭多個週期的人告別。Roger Lowenstein 寫道：“巴菲特驚人成功的秘密是什麼？我認為是他的品格。華爾街充滿了聰明且雄心勃勃的男女，但很少有人展現出巴菲特那種堅定的誠信和對原則的奉獻。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="410" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>泡沫無處不在</p>
<p>疲弱的盈利基礎使市場愈發脆弱</p>
<p>搜索活動是否預示着 ‘人工智能股票’ 即將下跌？</p>

伯克希爾哈撒韋-B

伯克希爾哈撒韋-A

<p>本週，金融專家的見解表明，當前的長期牛市可能接近尾聲，David Snyder 和 Jurrien Timmer 提出了這一觀點。科技投資週期，特別是在人工智能領域，正在主導資本支出，這可能對未來的回報不利。歷史數據顯示，低資產增長的公司顯著優於高資產增長的公司。此外，對沃倫·巴菲特成功的反思強調了他的誠信和原則是他輝煌職業生涯的關鍵因素</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/JUN15_04_buffet-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Source</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>來源</em></p>
</div><p>Below are some of the most interesting things I came across this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是我本週遇到的一些最有趣的事情。</p>
</div><p>This week, Michael Santoli introduced the world of finance to David Snyder, the true identity of the “mystery broker” and a source of his who has regularly and accurately called important market turning points over the past two decades. In an extensive report on his website, Snyder argues, “Just about all of the boxes have been checked that an investor would look for to determine that the end of a secular bull market is near.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週，Michael Santoli 向金融界介紹了 David Snyder，他是真正的 “神秘經紀人”，也是他的一位消息來源，過去二十年裏定期且準確地預測了重要的市場轉折點。在他網站上的一份詳細報告中，Snyder 認為：“幾乎所有投資者用來判斷一個長期牛市即將結束的標準都已滿足。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreigsoqbaruqejmmpwt7kzl2llri536oay4xjimr2qx2w3fbadfymyy.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
</div><p>Like Snyder, Jurrien Timmer, too, points out that, “Looking at the 1949-1968 and 1982-2000 secular bull markets, this one appears to be in its final innings.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與 Snyder 一樣，Jurrien Timmer 也指出：“回顧 1949-1968 年和 1982-2000 年的長期牛市，這一次似乎也進入了最後階段。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreidlghnmq2zq6c54xecn7g4wej2upw6mp6mrejyqsc6afa3yb6oxyi.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>CHART</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>圖表</strong></p>
</div><p>Perhaps the most important late-cycle dynamic in the stock market at present is the tech investment cycle. “As the race for AI supremacy both within the USA and globally rages on, tech sector fixed asset investment has surged — crowding out capex by the rest of the market,” writes Callum Thomas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前股市中最重要的晚期動態可能是科技投資週期。Callum Thomas 寫道：“隨着美國及全球對人工智能霸權的競爭加劇，科技行業的固定資產投資激增——擠壓了市場其他部分的資本支出。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/bafkreif3dr4alpd7ye76zvqq2mgiwwlppgbt6iltjzlfrrko4pzs5dgoke.jpg"/></p>
<p><strong>STAT</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>統計</strong></p>
</div><p>However, this sort of spending is not a great sign for forward returns. “Between 1968 and 2007, low-asset-growth firms had an average return of 26% annually, while high-asset-growth firms returned a meagre 4%,” reports The Globe And Mail.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這種支出對未來回報並不是一個好兆頭。《環球郵報》報道：“在 1968 年至 2007 年間，低資產增長公司的年均回報率為 26%，而高資產增長公司的回報率僅為微薄的 4%。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.20-AM.png"/></p>
<p><strong>LINK</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>鏈接</strong></p>
</div><p>Finally, as the current stock market cycle ages, Wall Street says goodbye to one who has successfully navigated several in his storied career. “What is the secret of Buffett’s astounding success? I believe it is his character. Wall Street is full of intelligent — and ambitious — men and women, but few have displayed Buffett’s unswerving integrity and dedication to principle,” writes Buffett biographer, Roger Lowenstein.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最後，隨着當前股市週期的老化，華爾街向一位在其輝煌職業生涯中成功駕馭多個週期的人告別。Roger Lowenstein 寫道：“巴菲特驚人成功的秘密是什麼？我認為是他的品格。華爾街充滿了聰明且雄心勃勃的男女，但很少有人展現出巴菲特那種堅定的誠信和對原則的奉獻。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png" alt="" original-src="https://thefelderreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Screenshot-2026-01-02-at-10.44.29-AM.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Bubbles Are Everywhere You Look</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>泡沫無處不在</p>
</div><p>A Weakening Earnings Foundation Leaves The Market Increasingly Fragile</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的盈利基礎使市場愈發脆弱</p>
</div><p>Is Search Activity Forecasting An Imminent Fall For ‘AI Stocks’?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>搜索活動是否預示着 ‘人工智能股票’ 即將下跌？</p>
</div>

The Secret Of Warren Buffett’s Storied Success

- 本週，邁克爾·聖託利介紹了市場中的 “神秘經紀人” 大衞·斯奈德。  
- 斯奈德表示，所有跡象表明長期牛市即將結束。  
- 當前股市循環加劇了技術投資週期，可能影響未來回報。

沃倫·巴菲特傳奇成功的秘訣