<p>根據 2025 年第四季度的 Aquila 資產管理者指數（AVI），瑞士資產管理者在 SIP 中看到了最大的機會，該指數於 1 月初發布。</p>
<p>當被問及哪個市場在 2026 年將提供最具吸引力的風險回報特徵時，42% 的受訪者提到了瑞士股票指數，其次是新興市場（MSCI EM ex China，18%）和美國藍籌股指數 S&amp;P 500（14%）。歐洲股票（MSCI EMU，7%）、納斯達克 100 指數和 MSCI 中國的科技股（各 9%）排名明顯較低。英國 FTSE 100 和日本日經 225 指數則完全沒有被提及。</p>
<p>資產管理者對由人工智能驅動的股票市場泡沫的擔憂顯然並不普遍。只有 13% 的受訪者預計估值會出現 “破裂”。相比之下，61% 的人自稱為 “半樂觀者”，認為存在一定程度的高估，並預計會有輕微降温——但不會崩盤。同時，26% 的人繼續將人工智能視為增長驅動力，並認為市場高點尚未到達。</p>
<p>當被問及將使用哪些資產來分散與人工智能相關的風險時，約 66% 的人提到了黃金。瑞士房地產（36%）、現金（32%）、基礎設施/能源（29%）和商品（26%）也被廣泛視為對沖工具。</p>
<p>展望未來，受訪者對 SMI 在 12 個月內的預期比上次調查更為樂觀。現在有 64% 的人預計會出現上漲，而上次為 55%。28% 的人預計將保持穩定，只有 8% 的人預計價格會下降。對於 10 年期瑞士政府債券，大多數（64%）受訪者預計利率將保持不變。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg"/></p>
<p>«在 11 月近期疲軟之後，我們略微增加了股票敞口，並選擇性地利用了有吸引力的投資機會，»<strong>Manuela Rupf</strong>，Alpique Swiss Partners 的創始人和合夥人評論道。«我們保持樂觀，主要關注高質量公司。牛市在降息階段很少結束。»她補充道，廣泛的多元化和嚴謹的投資方法仍然至關重要。«在客户方面，我們看到對商品敞口的需求增加——尤其是儘管價格大幅波動，白銀仍然顯得有吸引力。»</p>
<p><strong>黃金作為核心構建塊</strong></p>
<p><strong>Sam Harsch</strong>，Gotthard Partners 的董事會主席和合夥人，也專注於貴金屬。«黃金多年來一直是我們戰略資產配置的核心構建塊。故意在債券上超配並不是基於短期市場預期，而是基於這樣的評估：在政府債務上升、地緣政治分裂和貨幣政策不確定性增加的環境中，貴金屬繼續履行其作為價值儲存和穩定資產的角色。»</p>
<p>此外，針對歐元和美元計價資產的敞口在一些委託中已經減少了一段時間。Harsch 指出，債務水平持續高企、財政權衡和美國及歐元區日益增加的 “貨幣政策靈活性”。«我們假設，除了美元，歐元也將逐漸發展為軟貨幣。»</p>
<p>根據調查，股票、流動性和黃金的資產配置權重明顯高於傳統平衡投資組合，而債券配置則低於。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg"/></p>

<p>一項針對瑞士資產管理公司的調查顯示，受訪者對 2026 年持樂觀態度，42% 的人認為瑞士股票具有吸引人的風險回報特徵。黃金和國內房地產也因其多樣化的優勢而受到歡迎。對於人工智能驅動的市場泡沫的擔憂很小，61% 的人認為市場輕微高估。對瑞士市場指數（SMI）的預期更加積極，64% 的人預計會出現上漲。資產管理者強調黃金在債務上升和地緣政治不確定性中作為穩定資產的重要性，同時減少對歐元和美元資產的敞口。總體而言，股票和黃金的配置超過了傳統投資組合的標準，而債券則不太受歡迎</p>

<p>Swiss asset managers see the greatest opportunities in the SIP, according to the Aquila Asset Manager Index (AVI) for the fourth quarter of 2025, published in early January.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 2025 年第四季度的 Aquila 資產管理者指數（AVI），瑞士資產管理者在 SIP 中看到了最大的機會，該指數於 1 月初發布。</p>
</div><p>Asked which market would offer the most attractive risk-return profile in 2026, 42 percent cited the Swiss equity index, followed by emerging markets (MSCI EM ex China, 18 percent) and the US blue-chip index S&amp;P 500 (14 percent). European equities (MSCI EMU, 7 percent), technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100 and MSCI China (9 percent each) ranked significantly lower. The UK FTSE 100 and Japan’s Nikkei 225 were not mentioned at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當被問及哪個市場在 2026 年將提供最具吸引力的風險回報特徵時，42% 的受訪者提到了瑞士股票指數，其次是新興市場（MSCI EM ex China，18%）和美國藍籌股指數 S&amp;P 500（14%）。歐洲股票（MSCI EMU，7%）、納斯達克 100 指數和 MSCI 中國的科技股（各 9%）排名明顯較低。英國 FTSE 100 和日本日經 225 指數則完全沒有被提及。</p>
</div><p>Concerns about an AI-driven equity market bubble are clearly not widespread among asset managers. Only 13 percent of respondents expect a «burst» in valuations. By contrast, 61 percent describe themselves as «semi-optimists», identifying some degree of overvaluation and expecting a mild cooling—but no crash. Meanwhile, 26 percent continue to see AI as a growth driver and believe market highs have not yet been reached.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>資產管理者對由人工智能驅動的股票市場泡沫的擔憂顯然並不普遍。只有 13% 的受訪者預計估值會出現 “破裂”。相比之下，61% 的人自稱為 “半樂觀者”，認為存在一定程度的高估，並預計會有輕微降温——但不會崩盤。同時，26% 的人繼續將人工智能視為增長驅動力，並認為市場高點尚未到達。</p>
</div><p>When asked which assets they would use to diversify away AI-related risk, around 66% cited gold. Swiss real estate (36 percent), cash (32 percent), infrastructure/energy (29 percent) and commodities (26 percent) were also widely viewed as hedging instruments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當被問及將使用哪些資產來分散與人工智能相關的風險時，約 66% 的人提到了黃金。瑞士房地產（36%）、現金（32%）、基礎設施/能源（29%）和商品（26%）也被廣泛視為對沖工具。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, expectations for the SMI over a 12-month horizon are more optimistic than in the previous survey. A rise is now expected by 64 percent, compared with 55 percent. Stable levels are anticipated by 28 percent, while only 8 percent expect declining prices. For 10-year Swiss government bonds, the majority (64 percent) expects interest rates to remain unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，受訪者對 SMI 在 12 個月內的預期比上次調查更為樂觀。現在有 64% 的人預計會出現上漲，而上次為 55%。28% 的人預計將保持穩定，只有 8% 的人預計價格會下降。對於 10 年期瑞士政府債券，大多數（64%）受訪者預計利率將保持不變。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/smi-s.jpg"/></p>
<p>«Following the recent weakness in November, we slightly increased our equity exposure and selectively took advantage of attractive investment opportunities,» comments <strong>Manuela Rupf,</strong> founder and partner at Alpique Swiss Partners. «We remain optimistic and are focusing primarily on high-quality companies. Bull markets rarely end during phases of interest rate cuts.» Broad diversification and a disciplined investment approach remain essential, she adds. «On the client side, we are seeing increased demand for commodity exposure—silver in particular still appears attractive despite the strong price move.»</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>«在 11 月近期疲軟之後，我們略微增加了股票敞口，並選擇性地利用了有吸引力的投資機會，»<strong>Manuela Rupf</strong>，Alpique Swiss Partners 的創始人和合夥人評論道。«我們保持樂觀，主要關注高質量公司。牛市在降息階段很少結束。»她補充道，廣泛的多元化和嚴謹的投資方法仍然至關重要。«在客户方面，我們看到對商品敞口的需求增加——尤其是儘管價格大幅波動，白銀仍然顯得有吸引力。»</p>
</div><p><strong>Gold as a core building block</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>黃金作為核心構建塊</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Sam Harsch</strong>, chairman of the board and partner at Gotthard Partners, is also focused on precious metals. «Gold has been a central building block of our strategic asset allocation for many years. The deliberate overweighting at the expense of bonds is not based on short-term market expectations, but on the assessment that, in an environment of rising government debt, geopolitical fragmentation and increasing monetary policy uncertainty, the precious metal continues to fulfill its role as a store of value and a stabilizing asset.»</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Sam Harsch</strong>，Gotthard Partners 的董事會主席和合夥人，也專注於貴金屬。«黃金多年來一直是我們戰略資產配置的核心構建塊。故意在債券上超配並不是基於短期市場預期，而是基於這樣的評估：在政府債務上升、地緣政治分裂和貨幣政策不確定性增加的環境中，貴金屬繼續履行其作為價值儲存和穩定資產的角色。»</p>
</div><p>In addition, exposure to euro- and dollar-denominated assets has been reduced across mandates for some time. Harsch points to persistently high debt levels, fiscal trade-offs and increasing «monetary policy flexibilisation» in the U.S. and the euro area. «We assume that, alongside the US dollar, the euro will also gradually develop into a soft currency.»</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，針對歐元和美元計價資產的敞口在一些委託中已經減少了一段時間。Harsch 指出，債務水平持續高企、財政權衡和美國及歐元區日益增加的 “貨幣政策靈活性”。«我們假設，除了美元，歐元也將逐漸發展為軟貨幣。»</p>
</div><p>According to the survey, asset allocation weightings in equities, liquidity and gold are clearly above those of a traditional balanced portfolio, while bond allocations are below.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據調查，股票、流動性和黃金的資產配置權重明顯高於傳統平衡投資組合，而債券配置則低於。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://www.finews.com/images/news/2026/01/AVI_asset_Allocation-s.jpg"/></p>

瑞士資產管理公司在 2026 年看到的進一步潛力