<p>週二交易中，<strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: SOFI) 是最活躍交易的證券之一，但其股價下跌約 9%，因此獲得了這一不光彩的稱號。更令人困惑的是，似乎並沒有明顯的催化劑導致這一崩潰。可能，SOFI 股票是對過高估值和加密貨幣領域疲軟的擔憂做出的反應。不過，虧損可能隱藏着一個逆向投資的機會。</p>
<p>從基本面來看，專家可能會指出 SOFI 股票吸引了&#34;高&#34;的倍數。目前，SOFI 的交易價格超過 49 倍的未來收益和近 11 倍的過去一年銷售額。需要注意的是，估值比率並不是普遍的真理。當 SoFi 被標記為&#34;高估&#34;或&#34;完美定價&#34;時，您應該記住，這一説法是相對於一個主觀框架的。</p>
<p>換句話説，如果您改變框架，價值的定義也會隨之改變。然而，必須承認，人類情感在企業的感知中起着作用——這種感知可以改變現實，這種現象被稱為反身性。因此，如果足夠多的人認為 SOFI 股票價格過高，那麼這一描述可能最終會成為定義標籤。</p>
<p>在更具體的層面上，持續的加密貨幣疲軟也可能對這家金融科技公司造成壓力。確實，區塊鏈生態系統的波動並不是新現象。然而，SoFi 的加密服務對該品牌來説是一個穩固的業務。任何對該業務產生負面影響的因素——包括持續的熊市週期——都可能對 SOFI 股票造成傷害。</p>
<p>不過，有一點需要堅持的是，反身性可以朝兩個方向發揮作用。雖然 SOFI 股票可能看起來被高估，但也有可能——尤其是在今天的崩盤之後——交易者可能很快會看到潛在的折扣在前方。</p>
<h2>SOFI 股票可能為反彈而結構化</h2>
<p>作為一個經驗法則，每當您在市場上進行交易——尤其是在期權領域——您應該假設自己處於劣勢。這是因為您處於幾乎所有事情的下游，從交易速度到數據流，甚至到專家意見。在關鍵信息到達您之前，它可能已經經過了其他幾個實體。</p>
<p>然而，散户交易者相對於華爾街機器的一個優勢是分析靈活性。具體來説，市場製造商或多或少必須單調定價風險，這意味着風險與現貨價格的距離成正比。用體育類比，投籃比三分球更容易，主要是因為距離籃筐的差異。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="422" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>作者提供的圖片</p>
<p>然而，在某些比賽情況下，通往投籃的路線可能會受到嚴密防守。在這些情況下，更為概率上明智的舉動是將球傳給站在三分線外的空位球員。雖然後續的投籃嘗試在紙面上會更困難，但在上下文中，這是一項更輕鬆的努力。</p>
<p>截至週二收盤，SOFI 股票在過去 10 周內僅上漲了三週，導致下行趨勢。通常，這種情況會被視為對多頭交易者的風險，因為空頭似乎掌控了局面。然而，我們知道通過過去的 3-7-D（上漲三週，下跌七週，下行趨勢）序列的類比，未來 10 周通常會向上解決。</p>
<p>展望未來，與 3-7-D 序列相關的結果通常在$25.50 到$28.50 之間（假設現貨價格為$26.25）。主要概率密度可能在$27.10 左右達到峯值，標誌着理想的上行目標。然而，也可能有理由將目標推得更遠。</p>
<h2>風險地形揭示進一步的洞察</h2>
<p>為了更好地理解如何應用上述洞察，我們可以查看風險地形，這是對需求結構的三維視圖。風險地形涵蓋預期（終端）價格、概率密度和人口發生。基本上，這個工具回答了交易者常問的三個問題：多少、可能性有多大和頻率如何？</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="576" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>作者提供的圖片</p>
<p>關於 SOFI 股票，我們知道多少（就預期價格分佈而言）和可能性（概率質量的高度）。通過風險地形，我們可以回答頻率問題。在$27 到$28 之間，預計在接下來的 10 周內會出現顯著活動。</p>
<p>如前所述，終端結果可能會瞄準$27.10。然而，股票市場是極其流動的，預計在$27 到$28 之間的活動增加支持了 SOFI 股票可能在上邊界附近終止的觀點。</p>
<p>考慮到這一點，我關注的是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 27/28 牛市看漲期權價差。這筆交易將$46 置於風險之中，以換取最大利潤$54，或超過 117% 的最大回報。盈虧平衡點在$27.46 附近，接近峯值概率密度。</p>
<p>關於上述盈虧平衡價格的重要一點是，在像 Black-Scholes 這樣的單調風險模型下，盈虧平衡價格低於$26.70 的期權交易具有更高的成功概率，這很有道理。然而，在我使用的非單調模型下，$26.70 和$27.46 的相對風險大致相同。</p>
<p>換句話説，如果相對風險沒有懲罰，我理性地傾向於選擇更高整體回報的賭注。這就是為什麼我選擇 27/28 看漲期權價差而不是其他提議。</p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

SOFI

<p>SoFi Technologies（納斯達克代碼：SOFI）因估值擔憂和加密貨幣行業疲軟而經歷了 9% 的下跌，這引發了人們對其被高估的看法的質疑。儘管如此，一些分析師建議，隨着交易者可能很快將 SOFI 股票視為潛在折扣，可能會出現逆向機會。歷史趨勢表明，在經歷三週上漲後再經歷七週下跌，股票通常會反彈，預計 SOFI 在接下來的 10 周內目標在 25.50 美元到 28.50 美元之間，峯值約為 27.10 美元。正在考慮進行牛市看漲價差交易以獲取潛在收益</p>

<p>One of the most actively traded securities on Tuesday, <strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: SOFI) earned this distinction dubiously, with its security falling about 9%. Adding to the perplexing development is that there doesn't seem to be a distinct catalyst for the implosion. Possibly, SOFI stock is responding to concerns associated with excessive valuations, along with weakness in the cryptocurrency sector. Still, the red ink may be hiding a contrarian opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二交易中，<strong>SoFi Technologies Inc</strong> (NASDAQ: SOFI) 是最活躍交易的證券之一，但其股價下跌約 9%，因此獲得了這一不光彩的稱號。更令人困惑的是，似乎並沒有明顯的催化劑導致這一崩潰。可能，SOFI 股票是對過高估值和加密貨幣領域疲軟的擔憂做出的反應。不過，虧損可能隱藏着一個逆向投資的機會。</p>
</div><p>Fundamentally, experts may point to the &#34;rich&#34; multiples that SOFI stock has attracted. Currently, SOFI trades for over 49-times forward earnings and almost 11-times trailing-year sales. To be sure, valuation ratios are not universal truth claims. When SoFi is labeled as &#34;overvalued&#34; or &#34;priced for perfection,&#34; you should keep in mind that this assertion is relative to a subjective framework.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從基本面來看，專家可能會指出 SOFI 股票吸引了&#34;高&#34;的倍數。目前，SOFI 的交易價格超過 49 倍的未來收益和近 11 倍的過去一年銷售額。需要注意的是，估值比率並不是普遍的真理。當 SoFi 被標記為&#34;高估&#34;或&#34;完美定價&#34;時，您應該記住，這一説法是相對於一個主觀框架的。</p>
</div><p>In other words, if you change the framework, the definition of value would also change as well. However, it must be acknowledged that human emotions play into how an enterprise is perceived — and that perception can alter reality, a phenomenon known as reflexivity. So, if SOFI stock appears richly priced to enough people, that descriptor could end up being the defining label.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，如果您改變框架，價值的定義也會隨之改變。然而，必須承認，人類情感在企業的感知中起着作用——這種感知可以改變現實，這種現象被稱為反身性。因此，如果足夠多的人認為 SOFI 股票價格過高，那麼這一描述可能最終會成為定義標籤。</p>
</div><p>On a more tangible note, lingering crypto weakness could also be weighing the fintech specialist down. Sure, volatility in the blockchain ecosystem is not a new development. However, SoFi's crypto service is a solid business for the brand. Anything that negatively disrupts that business — including extended bearish cycles — is liable to hurt SOFI stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在更具體的層面上，持續的加密貨幣疲軟也可能對這家金融科技公司造成壓力。確實，區塊鏈生態系統的波動並不是新現象。然而，SoFi 的加密服務對該品牌來説是一個穩固的業務。任何對該業務產生負面影響的因素——包括持續的熊市週期——都可能對 SOFI 股票造成傷害。</p>
</div><p>Still, one point to hold onto is that reflexivity can work in either direction. While SOFI stock may have appeared overvalued, it's also possible that — especially with today's fallout — traders may soon perceive a potential discount over the horizon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不過，有一點需要堅持的是，反身性可以朝兩個方向發揮作用。雖然 SOFI 股票可能看起來被高估，但也有可能——尤其是在今天的崩盤之後——交易者可能很快會看到潛在的折扣在前方。</p>
</div><h2>SOFI Stock May Be Structured For A Rebound</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>SOFI 股票可能為反彈而結構化</h2>
</div><p>As a rule of thumb, any time you place a trade in the market — especially in the options arena — you should assume that you're trading at a disadvantage. That's because you're downstream of pretty much everything, from transaction speed to data flow to even expert opinion. By the time critical information gets to you, it has probably gone through several other entities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作為一個經驗法則，每當您在市場上進行交易——尤其是在期權領域——您應該假設自己處於劣勢。這是因為您處於幾乎所有事情的下游，從交易速度到數據流，甚至到專家意見。在關鍵信息到達您之前，它可能已經經過了其他幾個實體。</p>
</div><p>However, the one advantage that retail traders have over the Wall Street machinery is analytical flexibility. Specifically, market makers more or less must price risk monotonically, which means that risk rises in proportion to distance away from the spot price. To use a sports analogy, making a layup is easier than sinking a three-pointer, primarily due to the variance in distance to the basket.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，散户交易者相對於華爾街機器的一個優勢是分析靈活性。具體來説，市場製造商或多或少必須單調定價風險，這意味着風險與現貨價格的距離成正比。用體育類比，投籃比三分球更容易，主要是因為距離籃筐的差異。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154330/SOFI-stock-distributions-1024x422.png"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的圖片</p>
</div><p>However, in certain game situations, the route to the layup may be heavily defended. Under these scenarios, the more probabilistically prudent move is to pass the ball to the open player standing outside the arc. While the subsequent shot attempt will be more difficult on paper, in context, it's an easier effort.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在某些比賽情況下，通往投籃的路線可能會受到嚴密防守。在這些情況下，更為概率上明智的舉動是將球傳給站在三分線外的空位球員。雖然後續的投籃嘗試在紙面上會更困難，但在上下文中，這是一項更輕鬆的努力。</p>
</div><p>Up until Tuesday's close, SOFI stock had printed only three up weeks in the last 10 weeks, leading to a downward slope. Ordinarily, such a circumstance would be considered risky for long-side traders as the bears would appear to have control. However, we know through past analogs of this 3-7-D (three up, seven down, downward trend) sequence that the forward 10 weeks generally tend to resolve upward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至週二收盤，SOFI 股票在過去 10 周內僅上漲了三週，導致下行趨勢。通常，這種情況會被視為對多頭交易者的風險，因為空頭似乎掌控了局面。然而，我們知道通過過去的 3-7-D（上漲三週，下跌七週，下行趨勢）序列的類比，未來 10 周通常會向上解決。</p>
</div><p>Looking ahead, outcomes tied to the 3-7-D sequence typically land between $25.50 and $28.50 (assuming a spot price of $26.25). Predominantly, probability density would likely peak at around $27.10, marking an ideal upside target. However, there might be a case for pushing the needle a bit further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>展望未來，與 3-7-D 序列相關的結果通常在$25.50 到$28.50 之間（假設現貨價格為$26.25）。主要概率密度可能在$27.10 左右達到峯值，標誌着理想的上行目標。然而，也可能有理由將目標推得更遠。</p>
</div><h2>Risk Topography Reveals Further Insight</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>風險地形揭示進一步的洞察</h2>
</div><p>To better understand how we can apply the insights above, we can look at risk topography, a three-dimensional view of demand structure. Risk topography encompasses expected (terminal) price, probability density and population occurrence. Essentially, this tool answers three common questions that traders ask: how much, how likely and how frequently?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了更好地理解如何應用上述洞察，我們可以查看風險地形，這是對需求結構的三維視圖。風險地形涵蓋預期（終端）價格、概率密度和人口發生。基本上，這個工具回答了交易者常問的三個問題：多少、可能性有多大和頻率如何？</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/06154249/SOFI-stock-risk-topography-1024x576.jpg"/></p>
<p>Image by author</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者提供的圖片</p>
</div><p>Regarding SOFI stock, we're aware of how much (in terms of expected price distribution) and how likely (height of probability mass). With risk topography, we can answer the frequency question. Between $27 and $28, significant activity is expected to materialize over the course of the next 10 weeks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於 SOFI 股票，我們知道多少（就預期價格分佈而言）和可能性（概率質量的高度）。通過風險地形，我們可以回答頻率問題。在$27 到$28 之間，預計在接下來的 10 周內會出現顯著活動。</p>
</div><p>As stated earlier, the terminal outcome would likely target $27.10. However, the equities market is incredibly fluid and the heightened anticipated activity between $27 and $28 lends credence to the idea that SOFI stock could terminate near the upper boundary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，終端結果可能會瞄準$27.10。然而，股票市場是極其流動的，預計在$27 到$28 之間的活動增加支持了 SOFI 股票可能在上邊界附近終止的觀點。</p>
</div><p>With that in mind, I'm focused on the 27/28 bull call spread expiring Feb. 20, 2026. This trade puts $46 at risk for the chance to make a maximum profit of $54, or a max payout of over 117%. Breakeven comes in at $27.46, which is near peak probability density.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>考慮到這一點，我關注的是 2026 年 2 月 20 日到期的 27/28 牛市看漲期權價差。這筆交易將$46 置於風險之中，以換取最大利潤$54，或超過 117% 的最大回報。盈虧平衡點在$27.46 附近，接近峯值概率密度。</p>
</div><p>An important point about the above breakeven price is that, under monotonic risk models such as Black-Scholes, options trades with a lower breakeven price of $26.70 feature a higher probability of success, which makes sense. However, under the non-monotonic model that I'm using, the relative risk of $26.70 and $27.46 is about the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於上述盈虧平衡價格的重要一點是，在像 Black-Scholes 這樣的單調風險模型下，盈虧平衡價格低於$26.70 的期權交易具有更高的成功概率，這很有道理。然而，在我使用的非單調模型下，$26.70 和$27.46 的相對風險大致相同。</p>
</div><p>In other words, if there's no penalty in relative risk, I'm rationally inclined to take the wager with the greater holistic reward. That's why I'm targeting the 27/28 call spread over other propositions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説，如果相對風險沒有懲罰，我理性地傾向於選擇更高整體回報的賭注。這就是為什麼我選擇 27/28 看漲期權價差而不是其他提議。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

期權角：SoFi Technologies 的崩潰提供了一個潛在的逆向交易機會