<p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<p>道瓊斯理論信號本週首次觸發，時隔一年多</p>
<p>道瓊斯理論指標本週首次觸發。這個看漲信號意味着什麼？</p>
<p>一個被投資分析師使用了超過一個世紀的股市指標本週發出了看漲信號。</p>
<p>在一年多以來的第一次，道瓊斯理論在週二發出了買入信號，當時道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJIA）和道瓊斯運輸平均指數（DJT）在同一天都創下了歷史收盤新高。</p>
<p>對於技術策略師來説，這標誌着自 2022 年底以來的牛市仍然穩固，儘管一些高飛的人工智能股票最近表現不佳。</p>
<p>對於道瓊斯工業平均指數來説，週二是自 1 月 5 日以來的首次創紀錄高點。但道瓊斯運輸平均指數則更久沒有創下新高；根據道瓊斯市場數據，週二之前，其最近的紀錄收盤是在 2024 年 11 月 25 日。</p>
<p>“這確認了長期牛市依然健康，” CMT 協會的聯合創始人 Ralph Acampora 在接受 MarketWatch 採訪時表示。</p>
<p>在過去兩個月中，美國股票經歷了一場輪換交易，導致一些熱門科技股如 Nvidia（NVDA）和 Broadcom（AVGO）回落，同時推動了價值股、週期性股票以及小型和中型指數中的小公司股票。Acampora 指出，運輸股票尤其受益於這一趨勢。</p>
<p>見：美國股市正在發生重大變化。這可能意味着 2026 年投資者將有更多機會。</p>
<p>Craig Johnson，Piper Sandler 的首席市場技術分析師表示，投資者對美國經濟感到樂觀。預計美聯儲將降息，分析師預測廣泛的盈利增長，投資者押注於那些錯過了火熱的人工智能交易的股票在 2026 年仍然會有不錯的表現。</p>
<p>“我認為毫無疑問，經濟正在朝着正確的方向發展，” Johnson 告訴 MarketWatch。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，道瓊斯理論的觸發並不是本週美國股市中唯一出現的看漲信號：數據顯示，標準普爾 400 中型股指數（MID）在週二創下自 12 月 11 日以來的首次歷史收盤新高。</p>
<p>什麼是道瓊斯理論？</p>
<p>道瓊斯理論基於道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯運輸平均指數之間的共生關係，因為運輸公司負責運輸和交付工業公司生產的商品。該理論最初由道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯運輸平均指數的創始人 Charles Dow 提出。（他還是道瓊斯公司（Dow Jones &amp; Co.）的聯合創始人，該公司出版 MarketWatch 和其他金融出版物，包括《華爾街日報》。）</p>
<p>為了發出看漲信號，兩個平均指數需要 “確認” 對方的最新紀錄高點。兩個紀錄收盤不需要在同一天發生，但應儘量接近，Acampora 指出。</p>
<p>從檔案中看，不要因為道瓊斯理論已有 100 多年曆史而小覷它</p>
<p>自該指標首次創建以來，這兩個平均指數發生了顯著變化。道瓊斯工業平均指數現在包括金融服務和科技公司的股票，而不僅僅是工業名稱。同樣，道瓊斯運輸平均指數也包括了共享出行巨頭 Uber Technologies（UBER）和租車公司 Avis Budget Group（CAR）。</p>
<p>然而，Acampora 表示，該指標背後的基本邏輯仍然成立。當道瓊斯在 19 世紀末創建運輸平均指數時，它被稱為道瓊斯鐵路平均指數。鐵路股票仍然包含在運輸平均指數中，儘管現在它們與航空公司以及像 FedEx（FDX）和聯合包裹服務（UPS）這樣的運輸和物流公司共享空間。結果是：運輸平均指數仍然專注於幫助在全國範圍內運輸商品和人員的公司。</p>
<p>週三，兩個道瓊斯平均指數均出現回落。道瓊斯工業平均指數在最近的交易中下跌 391 點，或 0.8%，報 49,070 點。道瓊斯運輸平均指數則下跌 0.8%，報 17,894 點。</p>
<p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》出版。</p>
<p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
<p>01-07-26 1528ET</p>

<p>道瓊斯理論指標首次在一年多以來發出買入信號，暗示股市前景看漲。該信號出現在道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯運輸平均指數在同一天創下歷史新高時。分析師認為，這表明自 2022 年底以來開始的牛市仍然強勁。市場正經歷向價值股和小型公司的輪動，投資者對美國經濟和美聯儲可能的降息持樂觀態度</p>

<p>By Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Joseph Adinolfi</p>
</div><p>The Dow Theory signal triggered this week for the first time in more than a year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道瓊斯理論信號本週首次觸發，時隔一年多</p>
</div><p>The Dow Theory indicator just triggered for the first time in more than a year. Here's what the bullish signal suggests.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道瓊斯理論指標本週首次觸發。這個看漲信號意味着什麼？</p>
</div><p>A stock-market indicator that has been used by investment analysts for more than a century flashed a bullish signal this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一個被投資分析師使用了超過一個世紀的股市指標本週發出了看漲信號。</p>
</div><p>For the first time in more than a year, the Dow Theory flashed a buy signal on Tuesday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA and Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT both tallied record closing highs on the same day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在一年多以來的第一次，道瓊斯理論在週二發出了買入信號，當時道瓊斯工業平均指數（DJIA）和道瓊斯運輸平均指數（DJT）在同一天都創下了歷史收盤新高。</p>
</div><p>To technical strategists, this amounts to the latest sign that the bull market that began in late 2022 remains on solid footing, even if some highflying artificial-intelligence plays have struggled recently.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於技術策略師來説，這標誌着自 2022 年底以來的牛市仍然穩固，儘管一些高飛的人工智能股票最近表現不佳。</p>
</div><p>For the Dow industrials average, Tuesday marked its first record high since Jan. 5. But the Dow transportation average had gone much longer without a fresh record high; prior to Tuesday, its most recent record finish occurred on Nov. 25, 2024, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於道瓊斯工業平均指數來説，週二是自 1 月 5 日以來的首次創紀錄高點。但道瓊斯運輸平均指數則更久沒有創下新高；根據道瓊斯市場數據，週二之前，其最近的紀錄收盤是在 2024 年 11 月 25 日。</p>
</div><p>&#34;It confirms that the secular bull market is alive and well,&#34; said Ralph Acampora, co-founder of the CMT Association, during an interview with MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這確認了長期牛市依然健康，” CMT 協會的聯合創始人 Ralph Acampora 在接受 MarketWatch 採訪時表示。</p>
</div><p>For the past two months, U.S. stocks have been caught up in a rotation trade that has seen some air come out of hot tech stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Broadcom (AVGO) while boosting value stocks, cyclical names and shares of smaller companies included in small-cap and midcap indexes. Transportation stocks, in particular, have been big beneficiaries of this trend, Acampora pointed out.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去兩個月中，美國股票經歷了一場輪換交易，導致一些熱門科技股如 Nvidia（NVDA）和 Broadcom（AVGO）回落，同時推動了價值股、週期性股票以及小型和中型指數中的小公司股票。Acampora 指出，運輸股票尤其受益於這一趨勢。</p>
</div><p>See: Big changes are afoot in the U.S. stock market. That could mean more opportunities for investors in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>見：美國股市正在發生重大變化。這可能意味着 2026 年投資者將有更多機會。</p>
</div><p>The takeaway is that investors are feeling optimistic about the U.S. economy, said Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler. With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates and analysts penciling in broad-based earnings growth, investors are betting that stocks that have missed out on the red-hot AI trade could still have a pretty good year in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Craig Johnson，Piper Sandler 的首席市場技術分析師表示，投資者對美國經濟感到樂觀。預計美聯儲將降息，分析師預測廣泛的盈利增長，投資者押注於那些錯過了火熱的人工智能交易的股票在 2026 年仍然會有不錯的表現。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think there's no question the economy is moving in the right direction,&#34; Johnson told MarketWatch.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我認為毫無疑問，經濟正在朝着正確的方向發展，” Johnson 告訴 MarketWatch。</p>
</div><p>It also is worth noting that the Dow Theory trigger wasn't the only bullish signal to emerge from the U.S. equity market this week: The S&amp;P 400 midcap index MID tallied its first record closing high since Dec. 11 on Tuesday, data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，道瓊斯理論的觸發並不是本週美國股市中唯一出現的看漲信號：數據顯示，標準普爾 400 中型股指數（MID）在週二創下自 12 月 11 日以來的首次歷史收盤新高。</p>
</div><p>What is Dow Theory?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>什麼是道瓊斯理論？</p>
</div><p>Dow Theory is based on the assumption that the Dow industrials and the Dow transports have a symbiotic relationship, because transportation companies take and deliver what industrial companies make. The theory was first developed by Charles Dow, creator of both the Dow transportation and Dow industrials averages. (He also was the co-founder of Dow Jones &amp; Co., which publishes MarketWatch and other financial publications, including the Wall Street Journal.)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>道瓊斯理論基於道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯運輸平均指數之間的共生關係，因為運輸公司負責運輸和交付工業公司生產的商品。該理論最初由道瓊斯工業平均指數和道瓊斯運輸平均指數的創始人 Charles Dow 提出。（他還是道瓊斯公司（Dow Jones &amp; Co.）的聯合創始人，該公司出版 MarketWatch 和其他金融出版物，包括《華爾街日報》。）</p>
</div><p>For a bullish signal to be issued, both averages need to &#34;confirm&#34; a fresh record high in the other. The two record finishes don't need to happen on the same day, but they should occur close together, Acampora noted.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了發出看漲信號，兩個平均指數需要 “確認” 對方的最新紀錄高點。兩個紀錄收盤不需要在同一天發生，但應儘量接近，Acampora 指出。</p>
</div><p>From the archives Don't dis the Dow Theory just because it's over 100 years old</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從檔案中看，不要因為道瓊斯理論已有 100 多年曆史而小覷它</p>
</div><p>Both averages have changed significantly since the indicator was first created more than a century ago. The Dow industrials now includes shares of financial-services and technology firms, not just industrial names. Similarly, the Dow transports includes ride-share giant Uber Technologies (UBER) and Avis Budget Group (CAR), a car-rental company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自該指標首次創建以來，這兩個平均指數發生了顯著變化。道瓊斯工業平均指數現在包括金融服務和科技公司的股票，而不僅僅是工業名稱。同樣，道瓊斯運輸平均指數也包括了共享出行巨頭 Uber Technologies（UBER）和租車公司 Avis Budget Group（CAR）。</p>
</div><p>Yet the underlying logic behind the indicator still holds, Acampora said. When Dow first created the transportation average in the late 19th century, it was called the Dow Jones Railroad Average. Railroad stocks are still included in the transportation average, although they now share space with airlines as well as shipping and logistics firms like FedEx (FDX) and United Parcel Service (UPS). The upshot: The transportation average remains squarely focused on companies that help move goods, and people, around the country.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，Acampora 表示，該指標背後的基本邏輯仍然成立。當道瓊斯在 19 世紀末創建運輸平均指數時，它被稱為道瓊斯鐵路平均指數。鐵路股票仍然包含在運輸平均指數中，儘管現在它們與航空公司以及像 FedEx（FDX）和聯合包裹服務（UPS）這樣的運輸和物流公司共享空間。結果是：運輸平均指數仍然專注於幫助在全國範圍內運輸商品和人員的公司。</p>
</div><p>Both Dow averages were in retreat on Wednesday. The Dow industrials were off by 391 points, or 0.8%, at 49,070 in recent trade. The Dow transports, meanwhile, were down 0.8% at 17,894.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三，兩個道瓊斯平均指數均出現回落。道瓊斯工業平均指數在最近的交易中下跌 391 點，或 0.8%，報 49,070 點。道瓊斯運輸平均指數則下跌 0.8%，報 17,894 點。</p>
</div><p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Joseph Adinolfi</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此內容由 MarketWatch 創建，MarketWatch 由道瓊斯公司運營。MarketWatch 獨立於道瓊斯新聞社和《華爾街日報》出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道瓊斯新聞社</p>
</div><p>01-07-26 1528ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>01-07-26 1528ET</p>
</div>

這個已有 100 年曆史的股票市場指標剛剛發出了買入信號。投資者應該這樣解讀它