<p>今晚 21:30，華爾街屏息以待 12 月非農就業報告。</p><p>非農就業人數預計在 12 月份增加 60,000</p><p>失業率預計將從 4.6% 降至 4.5%</p><p>平均時薪預計較去年上漲 3.6%</p><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p><p>華盛頓，1 月 9 日（路透社）——由於企業對招聘的謹慎態度，受進口關税和人工智能投資上升的影響，美國的就業增長在 12 月份可能放緩，儘管預計失業率將降至 4.5%，這可能支持美聯儲本月維持利率不變的預期。勞工部備受關注的就業報告預計將在週五發佈，顯示勞動力市場仍然處於經濟學家和政策制定者所稱的 “無招聘、無解僱” 模式。這也將確認經濟處於無就業擴張狀態。經濟增長和勞動生產率在第三季度激增，部分歸因於人工智能支出的繁榮。</p><p>“這並不是需求疲軟，因為經濟似乎表現不錯，但企業在招聘新員工方面非常謹慎，” BMO 資本市場的高級經濟學家 Sal Guatieri 表示。“這可能與希望控制成本有關，或許是面對關税的壓力，但也因為許多企業相信，人工智能驅動的自動化將帶來一些生產力的回報。”</p><p>非農就業人數在上個月可能增加了 60,000 個職位，預計在 11 月份反彈了 64,000 個職位，路透社對經濟學家的調查估計。經濟在 10 月份失去了 105,000 個職位，這是近五年來的最大降幅，主要是聯邦政府員工因推遲離職而造成的。他們在 9 月底收到了最後一筆工資。</p><p>經濟學家估計，每月需要創造 50,000 到 120,000 個職位，以跟上適齡勞動人口的增長。</p><p>去年，勞動力市場失去了相當大的動力，估計新增職位不到一百萬。2024 年大約創造了 200 萬個職位，但當勞工統計局下個月發佈 1 月份就業報告時，這一數字可能會被下調。</p><p>勞工統計局估計，在截至 3 月份的 12 個月中，創造的職位比之前報告的少約 911,000 個。過度統計被歸咎於出生 - 死亡模型，該模型用於估計因公司在某個月開業或關閉而增加或減少的職位數量。</p><p>上個月，勞工統計局表示，從 1 月份開始，將通過每月納入當前樣本信息來改變出生 - 死亡模型。</p><h3 id="q4cn5zya">去年就業增長急劇放緩</h3><p>去年就業增長的急劇放緩主要歸因於唐納德·特朗普總統的激進貿易和移民政策，經濟學家和政策制定者表示，這減少了對工人需求和供應。一些經濟學家表示，低供應阻止了失業率的急劇上升。</p><p>失業率在 11 月份從 9 月份的 4.4% 上升至超過四年的高點 4.6%，部分受到 43 天聯邦政府停擺的扭曲影響，這也阻止了 10 月份家庭數據的收集。自 1948 年政府開始跟蹤該系列以來，10 月份的失業率首次未發佈。</p><p>“對關税的持續不確定性一直存在，” 安聯貿易北美的高級經濟學家 Dan North 表示。“我們也面臨着勞動力供應的下降，因為外籍勞動力正在迅速減少。”</p><p>政府將在發佈 12 月份就業報告時，公佈過去五年的季節性調整家庭調查的年度修訂。失業率是根據家庭調查計算的。通常與 1 月份就業報告一起納入的年度人口控制調整將被推遲。</p><p>儘管路透社對經濟學家的調查中，失業率的中位數預測是 12 月份降至 4.5%，但一些人認為失業率可能上升至 4.7%，他們認為這將為本月降息打開大門。他們警告不要將任何好於預期的 12 月份非農就業數據視為勞動力市場改善的跡象，指出年末數據調整的困難。</p><p>“12 月份 4.7% 的失業率不僅將確認 11 月份相對沒有與停擺相關的測量問題，而且表明自美聯儲 12 月份會議以來，勞動力市場的下行風險進一步增加，” 花旗集團經濟學家 Veronica Clark 表示。美國中央銀行在 12 月份將基準利率下調了四分之一個百分點至 3.50%-3.75% 的區間，但官員們表示，他們可能會暫停進一步降低借貸成本，以更好地瞭解經濟的方向。</p><p>上個月的就業增長可能仍然較窄，集中在醫療保健和社會援助部門。由於關税和人工智能等因素阻止公司招聘更多員工，經濟學家越來越將勞動力市場的挑戰視為結構性而非週期性。</p><p>“降低利率可能在邊際上有助於提振經濟，但不太可能促使因關税相關的不確定性而暫時擱置招聘決策的公司增加員工，” 桑坦德美國資本市場的首席經濟學家 Stephen Stanley 表示。“美聯儲顯然無力應對與人工智能相關的擔憂。”</p>

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<div class="lb-trans"><p>( )</p>
</div><p>Nonfarm payrolls are forecast increasing 60,000 in December</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非農就業人數預計在 12 月份增加 60,000</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate is expected to have eased to 4.5% from 4.6%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失業率預計將從 4.6% 降至 4.5%</p>
</div><p>Average hourly earnings are projected to have risen 3.6% from a year ago</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均時薪預計較去年上漲 3.6%</p>
</div><p>By Lucia Mutikani</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Lucia Mutikani</p>
</div><p>WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely slowed in December amid business caution about hiring because of import tariffs and rising artificial intelligence investment, though an anticipated easing in the unemployment rate to 4.5% could support expectations the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged this month. The Labor Department’s closely watched employment report on Friday is expected to show the labor market remained stuck in what economists and policymakers have called a “no hire, no fire” mode. It would also confirm the economy was in a jobless expansion. Economic growth and worker productivity surged in the third quarter, in part attributed to the AI spending boom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>華盛頓，1 月 9 日（路透社）——由於企業對招聘的謹慎態度，受進口關税和人工智能投資上升的影響，美國的就業增長在 12 月份可能放緩，儘管預計失業率將降至 4.5%，這可能支持美聯儲本月維持利率不變的預期。勞工部備受關注的就業報告預計將在週五發佈，顯示勞動力市場仍然處於經濟學家和政策制定者所稱的 “無招聘、無解僱” 模式。這也將確認經濟處於無就業擴張狀態。經濟增長和勞動生產率在第三季度激增，部分歸因於人工智能支出的繁榮。</p>
</div><p>“It’s not so much weak demand because the economy seems to be doing not bad, but businesses are very cautious about taking on new workers,” said Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. “That’s possibly related to the desire to keep costs under control, perhaps in the face of tariffs, but also because many businesses believe there will be some productivity payoff from AI-driven automation.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這並不是需求疲軟，因為經濟似乎表現不錯，但企業在招聘新員工方面非常謹慎，” BMO 資本市場的高級經濟學家 Sal Guatieri 表示。“這可能與希望控制成本有關，或許是面對關税的壓力，但也因為許多企業相信，人工智能驅動的自動化將帶來一些生產力的回報。”</p>
</div><p>Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 60,000 jobs last month after rebounding by 64,000 in November, a Reuters survey of economists estimated. The economy lost 105,000 jobs in October, the largest decrease in nearly five years, mostly federal government employees who took deferred buyouts. They received their last paycheck at the end of September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>非農就業人數在上個月可能增加了 60,000 個職位，預計在 11 月份反彈了 64,000 個職位，路透社對經濟學家的調查估計。經濟在 10 月份失去了 105,000 個職位，這是近五年來的最大降幅，主要是聯邦政府員工因推遲離職而造成的。他們在 9 月底收到了最後一筆工資。</p>
</div><p>Economists estimate that between 50,000 and 120,000 jobs need to be created each month to keep up with growth in the working-age population.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>經濟學家估計，每月需要創造 50,000 到 120,000 個職位，以跟上適齡勞動人口的增長。</p>
</div><p>The labor market lost considerable momentum last year, with well-below one million jobs estimated to have been added. Roughly 2 million jobs were created in 2024, though this number could be revised lower when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes its payrolls benchmark revision next month with the January employment report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年，勞動力市場失去了相當大的動力，估計新增職位不到一百萬。2024 年大約創造了 200 萬個職位，但當勞工統計局下個月發佈 1 月份就業報告時，這一數字可能會被下調。</p>
</div><p>The BLS has estimated about 911,000 fewer jobs were created in the 12 months through March than previously reported. The overcounting has been blamed on the birth-death model, which is used by the BLS to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>勞工統計局估計，在截至 3 月份的 12 個月中，創造的職位比之前報告的少約 911,000 個。過度統計被歸咎於出生 - 死亡模型，該模型用於估計因公司在某個月開業或關閉而增加或減少的職位數量。</p>
</div><p>Last month, the BLS said it would, starting in January, change the birth-death model by incorporating current sample information each month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月，勞工統計局表示，從 1 月份開始，將通過每月納入當前樣本信息來改變出生 - 死亡模型。</p>
</div><h3>JOB GROWTH SLOWED SHARPLY LAST YEAR</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>去年就業增長急劇放緩</h3>
</div><p>The sharp moderation in job growth last year was largely blamed on President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade and immigration policies, which economists and policymakers said reduced both demand for and supply of workers. Some economists say low supply has prevented a sharp rise in the unemployment rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年就業增長的急劇放緩主要歸因於唐納德·特朗普總統的激進貿易和移民政策，經濟學家和政策制定者表示，這減少了對工人需求和供應。一些經濟學家表示，低供應阻止了失業率的急劇上升。</p>
</div><p>The jobless rate increased to a more than four-year high of 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September, partially distorted by the 43-day federal government shutdown, which also prevented the collection of household data for October. The unemployment rate for October was not published for the first time since the government started tracking the series in 1948.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失業率在 11 月份從 9 月份的 4.4% 上升至超過四年的高點 4.6%，部分受到 43 天聯邦政府停擺的扭曲影響，這也阻止了 10 月份家庭數據的收集。自 1948 年政府開始跟蹤該系列以來，10 月份的失業率首次未發佈。</p>
</div><p>“There has been continuous uncertainty over tariffs,” said Dan North, senior economist at Allianz Trade North America. “We also have a falling supply of labor since the foreign-born labor is shrinking fairly rapidly.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“對關税的持續不確定性一直存在，” 安聯貿易北美的高級經濟學家 Dan North 表示。“我們也面臨着勞動力供應的下降，因為外籍勞動力正在迅速減少。”</p>
</div><p>The government will together with the December employment report publish annual revisions to the seasonally adjusted household survey for the past five years. The unemployment rate is calculated from the household survey. The annual population control adjustments, normally incorporated with the January employment report, will be delayed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政府將在發佈 12 月份就業報告時，公佈過去五年的季節性調整家庭調查的年度修訂。失業率是根據家庭調查計算的。通常與 1 月份就業報告一起納入的年度人口控制調整將被推遲。</p>
</div><p>While the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists was for the jobless rate to have eased to 4.5% in December, some saw the rate ticking higher to 4.7%, which they argued would open the door to a rate cut this month. They cautioned against viewing any better-than-expected December payrolls print as a sign of labor market improvement, citing difficulties adjusting the data around year-end.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管路透社對經濟學家的調查中，失業率的中位數預測是 12 月份降至 4.5%，但一些人認為失業率可能上升至 4.7%，他們認為這將為本月降息打開大門。他們警告不要將任何好於預期的 12 月份非農就業數據視為勞動力市場改善的跡象，指出年末數據調整的困難。</p>
</div><p>“A 4.7% unemployment rate in December would not only confirm that November was relatively free of shutdown-related measurement issues, but that downside risks to the labor market have increased even more since the Fed’s December meeting,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. The U.S. central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.50%-3.75% range in December, but officials indicated they were likely to pause further reductions in borrowing costs for now to get a better sense of the economy’s direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“12 月份 4.7% 的失業率不僅將確認 11 月份相對沒有與停擺相關的測量問題，而且表明自美聯儲 12 月份會議以來，勞動力市場的下行風險進一步增加，” 花旗集團經濟學家 Veronica Clark 表示。美國中央銀行在 12 月份將基準利率下調了四分之一個百分點至 3.50%-3.75% 的區間，但官員們表示，他們可能會暫停進一步降低借貸成本，以更好地瞭解經濟的方向。</p>
</div><p>Job growth last month likely remained narrow, concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors. Given that factors like tariffs and AI were preventing companies from hiring more workers, economists are increasingly viewing the labor market’s challenges as more structural than cyclical.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上個月的就業增長可能仍然較窄，集中在醫療保健和社會援助部門。由於關税和人工智能等因素阻止公司招聘更多員工，經濟學家越來越將勞動力市場的挑戰視為結構性而非週期性。</p>
</div><p>“Lowering interest rates may help to buoy the economy at the margin, but it is unlikely to push companies that are on temporary hold as it relates to hiring decisions due to tariff-related uncertainty to add workers,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets. “The Fed is certainly powerless to counteract the concerns related to AI.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“降低利率可能在邊際上有助於提振經濟，但不太可能促使因關税相關的不確定性而暫時擱置招聘決策的公司增加員工，” 桑坦德美國資本市場的首席經濟學家 Stephen Stanley 表示。“美聯儲顯然無力應對與人工智能相關的擔憂。”</p>
</div>

Wall Street holds its breath for the December non-farm payroll report

- 預計非農就業人數在十二月增加 60,000，失業率降至 4.5%。
- 企業因關税和人工智能投資謹慎，招聘增長緩慢。
- 勞動力市場面臨結構性挑戰，企業招聘決策受不確定性影響。

華爾街屏息以待 12 月非農就業報告，失業率可能有所下降，就業增長預計放緩