<p>2026 年 1 月 5 日，中國山東省煙台市的房地產項目。</p>
<p>Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images</p>
<p>北京——中國政策制定者可能終於開始重視應對日益嚴重的房地產低迷，提升了人們對今年晚些時候可能出台更強有力支持措施的期望。</p>
<p>中共中央的官方期刊《求是》在 2026 年 1 月 1 日發表了一篇文章，呼籲採取 “更有力和更精準的措施” 來穩定房地產市場預期。</p>
<p>自那時以來，包含萬科和世聯行等開發商的恒生中國 A 股房地產指數在年初上漲了超過 6%，反映出投資者的樂觀情緒日益增強。</p>
<p>《求是》的評論因其廣泛性而引人注目，野村證券首席中國經濟學家陸挺表示。</p>
<p>陸挺在本週早些時候的一份報告中表示：“這是自 2021 年中期該行業崩潰以來，《求是》上發佈的對中國房地產市場最全面的評估。其重要性不容忽視。”</p>
<p>公眾的中國官方評論，如《求是》文章，受到密切關注，因為它通常預示着內部政策辯論和官方思維的潛在轉變，通常在決策宣佈之前。</p>
<p>這篇文章出現在中國每年 3 月的全國人大會議之前，屆時最高領導人將聚集在一起設定未來一年的政策目標。今年，會議還將發佈下一五年發展計劃的完整細節。</p>
<p>陸挺表示：“北京不能讓其房地產行業無限期下滑，需要採取更果斷的行動來真正穩定房地產行業和整體經濟。”</p>
<p>他表示：“考慮到日益加劇的貿易緊張局勢和出口行業可能不可持續的強勁表現，北京最終可能被迫大幅加強政策措施。”</p>
<p>儘管 2024 年 9 月最高領導人明確呼籲停止該行業的衰退，但中國的房地產低迷仍在持續。根據中國房地產信息公司本週的一份報告，自北京開始打擊開發商對債務的過度依賴以來，新房銷售幾乎減半，2025 年的銷售面積降至 2009 年水平。</p>
<p>迄今為止出台的措施主要集中在放寬一些原本旨在遏制投機的購房者限制。</p>
<p>《求是》文章呼籲房地產政策 “一次性實施”，而不是 “零散的做法”。</p>
<p>中國建設銀行國際首席經濟學家趙崢同意，政策確實需要更加積極，而對大城市的有針對性的支持可以在不產生過多成本的情況下發揮重要作用。</p>
<p>他補充説，具體細節可能只會在 3 月的全國人大會議或後續的高層城市發展會議上公佈。</p>
<h2>拒絕當前對房地產的看法</h2>
<p>雖然官方語言常常將房地產低迷描述為 “調整期”，但《求是》文章直接呼籲緊迫性，稱政策制定者必須 “儘可能縮短調整期”，根據 CNBC 對中文評論的翻譯。</p>
<p>此外，《求是》反對北京的一種觀點，即房地產對中國經濟的重要性已不再，並警告政策制定者需要為仍在高債務水平下掙扎的房地產公司的可能破產做好準備。</p>
<p>整個行業的財務壓力依然明顯。</p>
<p>曾經是中國最大的房地產公司之一的萬科，面臨償還債務的困難，導致標準普爾全球評級下調了該開發商的債務評級。最近幾周，萬科在一筆原定於 2025 年 12 月 15 日到期的 20 億元人民幣（約合 2.83 億美元）的境內債券上險些違約，隨後獲得了延期。</p>
<p>根據 Wind 信息獲取的官方數據，作為更廣泛的壓力跡象，中國房地產開發商的未償貸款餘額在第三季度首次同比下降，時隔十多年。</p>
<p>根據《求是》文章，預計政府將實施更多創新和有針對性的措施，滙豐銀行亞洲房地產及香港股票研究負責人 Michelle Kwok 在週四的一份報告中寫道。</p>
<p>報告稱：“最具影響力的政策可能是那些顯著減輕購房者財務負擔的政策。” 她表示：“在我們看來，更加關注消化過剩庫存將是解決瓶頸的關鍵一步。”</p>
<p>中國開發商長期以來在房屋完工前就出售公寓，導致購房者在未完成的房屋上揹負抵押貸款。但由於缺乏新銷售的資金或借款能力，開發商也難以完成建設。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>考慮到日益加劇的貿易緊張局勢和出口行業可能不可持續的強勁表現，北京最終可能被迫大幅加強政策措施。</p>
<p>陸挺</p>
<p>野村證券首席中國經濟學家</p>
</blockquote>
<p>目前，麥格理首席中國經濟學家 Larry Hu 預測，未來一年房屋建設完工將下降 12%，而去年下降了 17%。他還預計今年新房銷售將再次下降，銷售面積將下降 7%。</p>
<p>胡表示，北京不太可能在出口下降之前增加太多支持，可能 “由於 [人工智能泡沫或美聯儲收緊政策]”，他在本週的一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>他説：“如果是這樣，北京將不得不依賴國內刺激來實現其增長目標。” 他指出，“最可能的選擇” 將是支持住房。</p>
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<p>野村的陸挺警告説，《求是》文章並不意味着政策制定者會對每一點採取行動。他指出，作者是住房部下屬研究中心的副主任，“這表明這些觀點可能尚未得到高層的完全認可。”</p>
<p>相比之下，盧表示，一篇在七月發表的《求是》文章暗示了北京計劃抵制過度競爭，使用了 “偽簽名”，這表明該評論得到了領導層的充分認可。</p>
<p>這一差異表明，在房地產支持方面建立高層共識可能需要時間，特別是因為北京可能會繼續優先考慮與美國的科技競爭。</p>

<p>中國政策制定者正在重新評估對疲軟房地產行業的應對措施，正如最近《求是》雜誌中的一篇文章所指出的。該文章呼籲在三月份的全國人大會議之前採取更強有力的措施來穩定市場。投資者的樂觀情緒有所上升，反映在恒生中國 A 股房地產指數上漲了 6%。專家建議需要採取更果斷的行動來應對持續的下滑，重點是減輕購房者的財務負擔以及解決開發商的高債務問題</p>

<p>Real Estate Projects in Yantai, Shandong, China on January 5, 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年 1 月 5 日，中國山東省煙台市的房地產項目。</p>
</div><p>Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty Images</p>
</div><p>BEIJING — Chinese policymakers may be finally warming to the idea of tackling the country's worsening real estate slump, raising expectations that stronger support measures could be coming later this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京——中國政策制定者可能終於開始重視應對日益嚴重的房地產低迷，提升了人們對今年晚些時候可能出台更強有力支持措施的期望。</p>
</div><p>The Communist Party's official journal Qiushi, which means &#34;seeking truth,&#34; kicked off 2026 with a Jan. 1 article calling for &#34;more powerful and precise measures&#34; to stabilize property market expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中共中央的官方期刊《求是》在 2026 年 1 月 1 日發表了一篇文章，呼籲採取 “更有力和更精準的措施” 來穩定房地產市場預期。</p>
</div><p>Since then, the Hang Seng China A Properties Index, which includes developers Vanke and Seazen, has climbed more than 6% to start the year, reflecting growing investor optimism.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自那時以來，包含萬科和世聯行等開發商的恒生中國 A 股房地產指數在年初上漲了超過 6%，反映出投資者的樂觀情緒日益增強。</p>
</div><p>The Qiushi commentary was notable for its scope, said Ting Lu, chief China economist at Nomura.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《求是》的評論因其廣泛性而引人注目，野村證券首席中國經濟學家陸挺表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is the most comprehensive assessment of China's property markets published in <em>Qiushi</em> since the sector's collapse in mid-2021,&#34; Ting said in a report earlier this week. &#34;Its significance should not be overlooked.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陸挺在本週早些時候的一份報告中表示：“這是自 2021 年中期該行業崩潰以來，《求是》上發佈的對中國房地產市場最全面的評估。其重要性不容忽視。”</p>
</div><p>Public Chinese official commentary, such as Qiushi articles, is closely watched because it often signals internal policy debates and potential shifts in official thinking before decisions are announced.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公眾的中國官方評論，如《求是》文章，受到密切關注，因為它通常預示着內部政策辯論和官方思維的潛在轉變，通常在決策宣佈之前。</p>
</div><p>The article appeared ahead of China's annual parliamentary meeting in March, when top leaders gather to set policy goals for the year ahead. This year, the meeting will also release full details on its next five-year development plan.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這篇文章出現在中國每年 3 月的全國人大會議之前，屆時最高領導人將聚集在一起設定未來一年的政策目標。今年，會議還將發佈下一五年發展計劃的完整細節。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Beijing cannot afford to let its property sector slide indefinitely, and much more decisive action is needed to truly stabilize the property sector and the overall economy,&#34; Lu said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>陸挺表示：“北京不能讓其房地產行業無限期下滑，需要採取更果斷的行動來真正穩定房地產行業和整體經濟。”</p>
</div><p>&#34;Given rising trade tensions and the likely unsustainable strength in the export sector, Beijing might eventually be compelled to ramp up its policy measures significantly.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示：“考慮到日益加劇的貿易緊張局勢和出口行業可能不可持續的強勁表現，北京最終可能被迫大幅加強政策措施。”</p>
</div><p>China's property downturn has dragged on despite a clear call from top leaders in Sept. 2024 to halt the sector's decline. New home sales have nearly halved since Beijing started cracking down on developers' heavy reliance on debt for growth, with floor space sold in 2025 falling to levels seen back in 2009, according to a report this week by the China Real Estate Information Corp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 2024 年 9 月最高領導人明確呼籲停止該行業的衰退，但中國的房地產低迷仍在持續。根據中國房地產信息公司本週的一份報告，自北京開始打擊開發商對債務的過度依賴以來，新房銷售幾乎減半，2025 年的銷售面積降至 2009 年水平。</p>
</div><p>Measures introduced so far have focused on easing some restrictions on buyers, originally intended to stem speculation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>迄今為止出台的措施主要集中在放寬一些原本旨在遏制投機的購房者限制。</p>
</div><p>The Qiushi article called for property policies to be implemented &#34;in one go,&#34; rather than a &#34;piecemeal approach.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《求是》文章呼籲房地產政策 “一次性實施”，而不是 “零散的做法”。</p>
</div><p>Cliff Zhao, chief economist at China Construction Bank International, agreed. Policy does need to be more assertive, while targeted support for larger cities could go a long way without too much cost, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國建設銀行國際首席經濟學家趙崢同意，政策確實需要更加積極，而對大城市的有針對性的支持可以在不產生過多成本的情況下發揮重要作用。</p>
</div><p>He added that details are likely to only emerge at the parliamentary meeting in March or at later high-level meetings focused on urban development.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他補充説，具體細節可能只會在 3 月的全國人大會議或後續的高層城市發展會議上公佈。</p>
</div><h2>Rejecting a current view on real estate</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>拒絕當前對房地產的看法</h2>
</div><p>While official language has often framed the real estate slump as merely a &#34;period of adjustment,&#34; the Qiushi article made a direct call for urgency, saying policymakers must &#34;shorten the adjustment period as much as possible,&#34; according to a CNBC translation of the Chinese commentary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然官方語言常常將房地產低迷描述為 “調整期”，但《求是》文章直接呼籲緊迫性，稱政策制定者必須 “儘可能縮短調整期”，根據 CNBC 對中文評論的翻譯。</p>
</div><p>In addition, Qiushi argued against a view in Beijing that real estate is no longer that important to China's economy, and warned that policymakers need to prepare for possible bankruptcies of real estate companies still struggling with high debt levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，《求是》反對北京的一種觀點，即房地產對中國經濟的重要性已不再，並警告政策制定者需要為仍在高債務水平下掙扎的房地產公司的可能破產做好準備。</p>
</div><p>Financial stress across the sector remains evident.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>整個行業的財務壓力依然明顯。</p>
</div><p>Vanke, once one of China's largest real estate companies, has struggled to meet its debt obligations, prompting S&amp;P Global Ratings to downgrade the developer's debt. In recent weeks, Vanke narrowly avoided default on a 2 billion yuan ($283 million) onshore bond initially due Dec. 15, 2025, before getting an extension.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>曾經是中國最大的房地產公司之一的萬科，面臨償還債務的困難，導致標準普爾全球評級下調了該開發商的債務評級。最近幾周，萬科在一筆原定於 2025 年 12 月 15 日到期的 20 億元人民幣（約合 2.83 億美元）的境內債券上險些違約，隨後獲得了延期。</p>
</div><p>In a broader sign of strain, Chinese real estate developers' outstanding loan balance fell in the third quarter from a year ago for the first time in more than a decade, according to official data accessed via Wind Information.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Wind 信息獲取的官方數據，作為更廣泛的壓力跡象，中國房地產開發商的未償貸款餘額在第三季度首次同比下降，時隔十多年。</p>
</div><p>Based on the Qiushi article, the government is expected to implement more innovative and targeted measures, Michelle Kwok, HSBC's head of Asia real estate and Hong Kong equity research, wrote in a report Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據《求是》文章，預計政府將實施更多創新和有針對性的措施，滙豐銀行亞洲房地產及香港股票研究負責人 Michelle Kwok 在週四的一份報告中寫道。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The most impactful policies will likely be those that meaningfully reduce the financial burden on home buyers,&#34; the report said. &#34;In our view, more focus on acquiring excess inventory will be a key step to resolving bottlenecks.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>報告稱：“最具影響力的政策可能是那些顯著減輕購房者財務負擔的政策。” 她表示：“在我們看來，更加關注消化過剩庫存將是解決瓶頸的關鍵一步。”</p>
</div><p>Chinese developers have long sold apartments before completion, leaving buyers with mortgages on unfinished homes. But without funds from new sales or the ability to borrow, developers have also struggled to complete construction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國開發商長期以來在房屋完工前就出售公寓，導致購房者在未完成的房屋上揹負抵押貸款。但由於缺乏新銷售的資金或借款能力，開發商也難以完成建設。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Given rising trade tensions and the likely unsustainable strength in the export sector, Beijing might eventually be compelled to ramp up its policy measures significantly.</p>
<p>Ting Lu</p>
<p>Nomura, chief China economist</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>考慮到日益加劇的貿易緊張局勢和出口行業可能不可持續的強勁表現，北京最終可能被迫大幅加強政策措施。</p>
<p>陸挺</p>
<p>野村證券首席中國經濟學家</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>For now, Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie, predicts home construction completions will fall by 12% in the year ahead, after a 17% drop last year. He also expects new home sales to fall again this year, down by 7% in terms of floor space sold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，麥格理首席中國經濟學家 Larry Hu 預測，未來一年房屋建設完工將下降 12%，而去年下降了 17%。他還預計今年新房銷售將再次下降，銷售面積將下降 7%。</p>
</div><p>Hu said Beijing is unlikely to add much support until exports decline, possibly &#34;due to [an] AI bust or Fed tightening,&#34; he said in a report this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>胡表示，北京不太可能在出口下降之前增加太多支持，可能 “由於 [人工智能泡沫或美聯儲收緊政策]”，他在本週的一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;If so, Beijing would have to rely on domestic stimulus to achieve its growth target,&#34; he said, noting the &#34;most likely option&#34; would be to support housing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他説：“如果是這樣，北京將不得不依賴國內刺激來實現其增長目標。” 他指出，“最可能的選擇” 將是支持住房。</p>
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</div><p>Nomura's Lu cautioned that the Qiushi article doesn't mean policymakers will act on every point. He noted that the author is a deputy director of a research center under the housing ministry, &#34;which suggests these views may not yet be fully endorsed at the top level.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>野村的陸挺警告説，《求是》文章並不意味着政策制定者會對每一點採取行動。他指出，作者是住房部下屬研究中心的副主任，“這表明這些觀點可能尚未得到高層的完全認可。”</p>
</div><p>By contrast, Lu said, a Qiushi article published in July, which signaled Beijing's plans to push back against excessive competition, used &#34;a pseudo-signature which suggests the commentary was fully endorsed by the leadership.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，盧表示，一篇在七月發表的《求是》文章暗示了北京計劃抵制過度競爭，使用了 “偽簽名”，這表明該評論得到了領導層的充分認可。</p>
</div><p>That difference suggests that building high-level consensus on property support could take time, particularly as Beijing may continue to prioritize tech competition with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一差異表明，在房地產支持方面建立高層共識可能需要時間，特別是因為北京可能會繼續優先考慮與美國的科技競爭。</p>
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在關鍵的三月會議前，對中國房地產支持的期望上升