<p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<p>蓬勃發展的預測市場正面臨真正的挑戰。</p>
<p>在美國當地時間 1 月 9 日，<strong>田納西州體育博彩委員會（SWC）對 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等預測市場平台發佈了禁令，要求這些平台停止向該州居民提供體育預測合同，理由是這些公司在沒有州政府許可的情況下從事非法賭博活動。</strong></p>
<p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<p>蓬勃發展的預測市場正面臨真正的挑戰。</p>
<p>在美國當地時間 1 月 9 日，<strong>田納西州體育博彩委員會（SWC）對 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等預測市場平台發佈了禁令，要求這些平台停止向該州居民提供體育預測合同，理由是這些公司在沒有州政府許可的情況下從事非法賭博活動。</strong></p>
<p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="391" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<h2><strong>聚焦田納西州，體育博彩意味着什麼？</strong></h2>
<p>讓我們把目光轉向田納西州，這一事件的中心州。在 2019 年，田納西州通過了田納西州體育博彩法，正式合法化體育博彩。雖然時任州長比爾·李對賭博持保留態度，但他允許該法案通過而沒有否決。從 2021 年到 2022 年，田納西州立法機構通過立法成立了一個專門的監管委員會，負責監督許可和監管。這個委員會，前身為體育博彩諮詢委員會，後來更名為田納西州體育博彩委員會（SWC），正是本文開頭提到的對 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 發佈禁令的委員會。目前，SWC 是田納西州唯一的體育博彩監管機構，負責運營許可證、合規監督、規則制定和執行。州體育委員會（SWC）要求所有體育博彩提供商必須獲得 SWC 的許可證才能在該州運營；到目前為止，已發放了 11 個許可證（見上文）。只有 21 歲及以上的居民才能使用這些服務，投注必須通過地理定位進行驗證，以確保在該州內進行。關於税收，州政府對總投注額徵收 1.85% 的税——之前是基於收入的税制，2023 年改為基於總投注的税制。體育博彩市場對田納西州的税收收入貢獻顯著。根據體育書評（Sports Book Review）的統計數據（見下圖，數據截至 2025 年 7 月），田納西州的體育博彩市場在 2024 年產生了 52.68 億美元的總投注收入，税收貢獻達到 9716 萬美元；在 2025 年的前七個月，總投注收入達到 24 億美元，税收貢獻達到 5640 萬美元。</p>
<p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="703" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<p>但這個龐大且仍在增長的市場現在正逐漸被 Polymarkets 侵蝕。</p>
<h2>預測市場如何侵蝕舊世界？</h2>
<h2>預測市場如何侵蝕舊世界？</h2>
<h2>在 2025 年 12 月 3 日，Polymarket 宣佈已獲得 CFTC 的許可證，並將在近四年後重返美國市場。在此之前，Kalshi 和 Crypto.com 的預測市場平台 Truth Predict 已經獲得 CFTC 批准，向美國用户開放。目前，體育博彩被明確歸類為賭博服務，監管權屬於各州。然而，像 Polymarket 這樣的預測市場平台通常被視為提供 “事件合同” 交易服務的新實體。從資產性質上看，“事件合同” 被視為金融衍生品，屬於 CFTC 的監管範圍。這使得預測市場能夠規避對博彩服務的嚴格監管——它們不需要州許可證、用户保護法規（如成癮控制）或向州支付的高額博彩税；然而，它們仍然可以提供類似於傳統博彩的體育博彩服務，客觀上創造了一定程度的 “監管套利”。如果預測市場仍然只是小規模的試驗場，那倒是另一回事，但現實是它們的增長速度甚至比已經非常驚人的體育博彩市場還要更為驚人——在 2025 年，預測市場的總交易量約為 400 億美元，比 2024 年的 90 億美元增長了約 400%。Dune 編制的數據儀表板（見下文）顯示，體育相關的事件合同長期以來一直是預測市場中交易量最高的類別。資本市場已經感受到 Polymarket 對傳統體育博彩服務日益增長的威脅。體育博彩市場的兩大巨頭 DraftKings 和 Flutter Entertainment 在過去一年分別錄得 11.7% 和 16.1% 的下降。這與美國股市的牛市相吻合，標準普爾 500 指數在一年內上漲了 12.97%，納斯達克綜合指數上漲了 20.36%，而標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 16.39%；此外，體育博彩市場繼續保持八年的上升趨勢。</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425754_image3.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="600" height="474" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425754_image3.png"/></p>
<p><strong>無論是依賴體育博彩獲取税收的田納西州，還是有效控制體育博彩市場的資本力量，都不太可能同意像預測市場這樣的新參與者的出現。</strong></p>
<h2>這種摩擦並不是個案。預測市場將如何反擊？</h2>
<h2>事實上，田納西州對預測市場的禁令並不是個例。馬里蘭州、俄亥俄州、伊利諾伊州、新澤西州、內華達州、蒙大拿州、密歇根州和康涅狄格州都曾因類似原因對預測市場進行打壓。自從 Polymarket 去年十二月重新進入美國市場以來，Kalshi 面臨的監管審查更加嚴格。作為回應，Kalshi 對內華達州、新澤西州和馬里蘭州提起訴訟，辯稱其已遵守更高優先級的聯邦法規，不再需要遵守州法規，但結果並不理想。內華達州的訴訟是第一個進行的。地方法院最初支持 Kalshi，但去年十一月改變了立場，裁定不利於 Kalshi。法官安德魯·戈登認為，Kalshi 的體育賽事合同與體育博彩非常相似，因此屬於內華達州博彩法規的管轄範圍。Kalshi 已向美國第九巡迴上訴法院提出上訴。在新澤西州，地方法院裁定支持 Kalshi，但該州的博彩監管機構已向美國第三巡迴上訴法院提出上訴。在馬里蘭州，地方法院審理了博彩監管機構的案件。法官亞當·B 裁定 Kalshi... Kalshi 已向美國第四巡迴上訴法院提出上訴，理由是未能證明 “國會有明確和明確的意圖剝奪各州對賭博的監管權。” 律師事務所 Benesch 評論稱，“隨着全國辯論的持續，類似的分歧預計將在上訴法院層面出現，這將為最高法院在未來幾年解決這一問題奠定基礎……如果上訴法院恰好一致支持 Kalshi 的立場，其他預測市場可能會效仿，並在最高法院審理案件之前開始類似的運營；然而，如果上訴法院得出不同的結論，處於類似情況的公司可能會在採取行動之前等待更明確的法律信號。無論如何，Kalshi 的訴訟將為國家體育博彩和賭博行業創造一個具有直接和深遠影響的先例。” 總之，預測市場是否應遵守州賭博法規仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。根本矛盾在於預測市場與體育博彩在產品和服務提供者方面的相似性，以及監管要求的差異。這是一場關於監管適應的拉鋸戰。在上訴法院甚至最高法院作出最終裁決之前，預測市場與體育博彩之間的灰色地帶將長期存在，監管衝突將難以避免。在短期內，各州可能會通過執法和訴訟繼續捍衞其監管權利和税基；而預測市場平台將試圖利用聯邦合規和創新敍事作為盾牌，以獲得更大的生存空間。</h2>

FLTR

DKNG

<p>田納西州體育博彩委員會已對預測市場平台如 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 發佈禁令，理由是其進行非法賭博活動。這一舉措是在田納西州於 2019 年合法化體育博彩併成立體育博彩委員會作為監管機構之後進行的。雖然傳統體育博彩受到嚴格監管，但預測市場被歸類為金融衍生品，使其能夠在較少的監管下運營。預測市場的快速增長對傳統體育博彩公司構成威脅，導致 DraftKings 和 Flutter Entertainment 等主要玩家的業績下滑</p>

<p>Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
</div><p>The booming prediction market is facing a real challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓬勃發展的預測市場正面臨真正的挑戰。</p>
</div><p>On January 9th, US local time, <strong>The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued injunctions to prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, requiring these platforms to stop offering sports prediction contracts to residents of the state, on the grounds that these companies are engaged in illegal gambling operations without state government permission.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國當地時間 1 月 9 日，<strong>田納西州體育博彩委員會（SWC）對 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等預測市場平台發佈了禁令，要求這些平台停止向該州居民提供體育預測合同，理由是這些公司在沒有州政府許可的情況下從事非法賭博活動。</strong></p>
</div><p>Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Azuma，Odaily Planet Daily</p>
</div><p>The booming prediction market is facing a real challenge.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>蓬勃發展的預測市場正面臨真正的挑戰。</p>
</div><p>On January 9th, US local time, <strong>The Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC) issued injunctions to prediction market platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com, requiring these platforms to stop offering sports prediction contracts to residents of the state, on the grounds that these companies are engaged in illegal gambling operations without state government permission.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國當地時間 1 月 9 日，<strong>田納西州體育博彩委員會（SWC）對 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 等預測市場平台發佈了禁令，要求這些平台停止向該州居民提供體育預測合同，理由是這些公司在沒有州政府許可的情況下從事非法賭博活動。</strong></p>
</div><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425750_image3.png"/></strong></p>
</div><h2><strong>Focusing on Tennessee, what does sports betting mean?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>聚焦田納西州，體育博彩意味着什麼？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Let's turn our attention to Tennessee, the central state of this event. In 2019, Tennessee passed the Tennessee Sports Gaming Act, officially legalizing sports betting. While then-Governor Bill Lee held reservations about gambling, he allowed the bill to pass without vetoing it. Between 2021 and 2022, the Tennessee legislature passed legislation establishing a dedicated regulatory committee to oversee licensing and regulation. This committee, formerly known as the Sports Wagering Advisory Council, was later renamed the Tennessee Sports Wagering Council (SWC), the same committee mentioned at the beginning of this article that issued injunctions against Kalshi, Polymarket, and Crypto.com. Currently, the SWC is the only sports betting regulatory body in Tennessee, responsible for operating licenses, compliance oversight, rulemaking, and enforcement. The State Sports Commission (SWC) mandates that all sports betting providers must obtain a license from the SWC to operate in the state; 11 licenses have been issued so far (see above). Only residents aged 21 and older can access the services, and betting must be verified through geolocation to ensure it takes place within the state. Regarding taxation, the state levies a 1.85% tax on total bets—previously an income-based tax scheme, it switched to a total betting-based tax in 2023. The sports betting market contributes significantly to Tennessee's tax revenue. According to statistics from Sports Book Review (see chart below, data as of July 2025), Tennessee's sports betting market generated $5.268 billion in total betting revenue in 2024, with tax contributions reaching $97.16 million; in the first seven months of 2025, total betting revenue reached $2.4 billion, with tax contributions reaching $56.4 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>讓我們把目光轉向田納西州，這一事件的中心州。在 2019 年，田納西州通過了田納西州體育博彩法，正式合法化體育博彩。雖然時任州長比爾·李對賭博持保留態度，但他允許該法案通過而沒有否決。從 2021 年到 2022 年，田納西州立法機構通過立法成立了一個專門的監管委員會，負責監督許可和監管。這個委員會，前身為體育博彩諮詢委員會，後來更名為田納西州體育博彩委員會（SWC），正是本文開頭提到的對 Kalshi、Polymarket 和 Crypto.com 發佈禁令的委員會。目前，SWC 是田納西州唯一的體育博彩監管機構，負責運營許可證、合規監督、規則制定和執行。州體育委員會（SWC）要求所有體育博彩提供商必須獲得 SWC 的許可證才能在該州運營；到目前為止，已發放了 11 個許可證（見上文）。只有 21 歲及以上的居民才能使用這些服務，投注必須通過地理定位進行驗證，以確保在該州內進行。關於税收，州政府對總投注額徵收 1.85% 的税——之前是基於收入的税制，2023 年改為基於總投注的税制。體育博彩市場對田納西州的税收收入貢獻顯著。根據體育書評（Sports Book Review）的統計數據（見下圖，數據截至 2025 年 7 月），田納西州的體育博彩市場在 2024 年產生了 52.68 億美元的總投注收入，税收貢獻達到 9716 萬美元；在 2025 年的前七個月，總投注收入達到 24 億美元，税收貢獻達到 5640 萬美元。</p>
</div><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png"/></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png" alt="" original-src="https://img.jinse.com.cn/7425752_image3.png"/></strong></p>
</div><p>But this huge and still growing pie is now being gradually eroded by Polymarkets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這個龐大且仍在增長的市場現在正逐漸被 Polymarkets 侵蝕。</p>
</div><h2>How are prediction markets eroding the old world?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預測市場如何侵蝕舊世界？</h2>
</div><h2>How do prediction markets erode the old world?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>預測市場如何侵蝕舊世界？</h2>
</div><h2>On December 3, 2025, Polymarket announced that it had received a license from the CFTC and would return to the US market after nearly four years. Prior to this, Kalshi and Crypto.com's prediction market platform, Truth Predict, had already opened its doors to US users with CFTC approval. Currently, sports betting is explicitly classified as a gambling service, with regulatory authority belonging to individual states. However, prediction market platforms like Polymarket are generally considered new entities providing &#34;event contract&#34; trading services. &#34;Event contracts,&#34; in terms of their asset nature, are considered financial derivatives and fall under the CFTC's regulatory scope. This allows prediction markets to circumvent the stringent regulations governing betting services—they don't need state licenses, user protection regulations such as addiction control, or high betting taxes paid to states; yet they can still offer sports betting services similar to traditional betting, objectively creating a degree of &#34;regulatory arbitrage.&#34; If prediction markets were still just small-scale testing grounds, that would be one thing, but the reality is that their growth rate is even more outrageous than the already phenomenal sports betting market—in 2025, the total transaction volume of prediction markets was approximately $40 billion, an increase of about 400% from $9 billion in 2024. Data Dashboards (see below) compiled by Dune show that sports-related event contracts have long been the category with the highest trading volume in the prediction market. The capital market has already sensed the growing threat that Polymarket poses to traditional sports betting services. The two giants in the sports betting market, DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, recorded declines of 11.7% and 16.1% respectively over the past year. This coincided with a bull market in US stocks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 12.97% for the year, the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 20.36%, and the S&amp;P 500 Index rising 16.39%; moreover, the sports betting market continued its eight-year upward trend.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>在 2025 年 12 月 3 日，Polymarket 宣佈已獲得 CFTC 的許可證，並將在近四年後重返美國市場。在此之前，Kalshi 和 Crypto.com 的預測市場平台 Truth Predict 已經獲得 CFTC 批准，向美國用户開放。目前，體育博彩被明確歸類為賭博服務，監管權屬於各州。然而，像 Polymarket 這樣的預測市場平台通常被視為提供 “事件合同” 交易服務的新實體。從資產性質上看，“事件合同” 被視為金融衍生品，屬於 CFTC 的監管範圍。這使得預測市場能夠規避對博彩服務的嚴格監管——它們不需要州許可證、用户保護法規（如成癮控制）或向州支付的高額博彩税；然而，它們仍然可以提供類似於傳統博彩的體育博彩服務，客觀上創造了一定程度的 “監管套利”。如果預測市場仍然只是小規模的試驗場，那倒是另一回事，但現實是它們的增長速度甚至比已經非常驚人的體育博彩市場還要更為驚人——在 2025 年，預測市場的總交易量約為 400 億美元，比 2024 年的 90 億美元增長了約 400%。Dune 編制的數據儀表板（見下文）顯示，體育相關的事件合同長期以來一直是預測市場中交易量最高的類別。資本市場已經感受到 Polymarket 對傳統體育博彩服務日益增長的威脅。體育博彩市場的兩大巨頭 DraftKings 和 Flutter Entertainment 在過去一年分別錄得 11.7% 和 16.1% 的下降。這與美國股市的牛市相吻合，標準普爾 500 指數在一年內上漲了 12.97%，納斯達克綜合指數上漲了 20.36%，而標準普爾 500 指數上漲了 16.39%；此外，體育博彩市場繼續保持八年的上升趨勢。</h2>
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<p><strong>Whether it's Tennessee, which relies on sports betting for tax revenue, or the capital forces that effectively control the sports betting market, neither is likely to agree to the emergence of a new player like the prediction market.</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>無論是依賴體育博彩獲取税收的田納西州，還是有效控制體育博彩市場的資本力量，都不太可能同意像預測市場這樣的新參與者的出現。</strong></p>
</div><h2>This friction is not an isolated case. How will the prediction market retaliate?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這種摩擦並不是個案。預測市場將如何反擊？</h2>
</div><h2>In fact, Tennessee's ban on prediction markets is not an isolated case. Maryland, Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, Nevada, Montana, Michigan, and Connecticut have all previously cracked down on prediction markets for similar reasons. Since Polymarket only returned to the US market last December, Kalshi has faced even greater regulatory scrutiny. In response, Kalshi filed lawsuits against Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland, arguing that it had already complied with higher-priority federal regulations and was no longer required to comply with state regulations, but the results were unsatisfactory. The lawsuit in Nevada was the first to proceed. The district court initially supported Kalshi, but then reversed course last November, ruling against Kalshi. Judge Andrew Gordon determined that Kalshi's contracts for sports events were very similar to sports betting and therefore fell under the jurisdiction of Nevada betting regulations. Kalshi has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. In New Jersey, the district court ruled in favor of Kalshi, but the state's betting regulator has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. In Maryland, the district court heard the betting regulator's case. Judge Adam B ruled that Kalshi... Kalshi has appealed to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit for failing to prove that &#34;Congress has a clear and explicit intention to strip states of their power to regulate gambling.&#34; The law firm Benesch commented that, &#34;As the national debate continues, similar disagreements are expected at the appeals court level, which will lay the groundwork for the Supreme Court to resolve this issue in the coming years… If the appeals courts happen to unanimously support Kalshi's position, other prediction markets may follow suit and begin similar operations before the Supreme Court hears the case; however, if the appeals courts reach a different conclusion, companies in similar situations may wait for clearer legal signals before taking action. In any case, Kalshi's lawsuit will create a precedent with a direct and far-reaching impact on the national sports betting and gambling industry.&#34; In conclusion, whether prediction markets should comply with state gambling regulations remains an open question. The fundamental contradiction lies in the similarities between prediction markets and sports betting in terms of product and service providers, and the differences in regulatory requirements. This is a tug-of-war over regulatory adaptation. Until the appellate courts and even the Supreme Court issue a final ruling, the gray area between prediction markets and sports betting will persist for a long time, and regulatory conflicts will be difficult to avoid. In the short term, states may continue to defend their regulatory rights and tax base through enforcement and litigation; while prediction market platforms will attempt to use federal compliance and innovation narratives as a shield to gain greater room for survival.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>事實上，田納西州對預測市場的禁令並不是個例。馬里蘭州、俄亥俄州、伊利諾伊州、新澤西州、內華達州、蒙大拿州、密歇根州和康涅狄格州都曾因類似原因對預測市場進行打壓。自從 Polymarket 去年十二月重新進入美國市場以來，Kalshi 面臨的監管審查更加嚴格。作為回應，Kalshi 對內華達州、新澤西州和馬里蘭州提起訴訟，辯稱其已遵守更高優先級的聯邦法規，不再需要遵守州法規，但結果並不理想。內華達州的訴訟是第一個進行的。地方法院最初支持 Kalshi，但去年十一月改變了立場，裁定不利於 Kalshi。法官安德魯·戈登認為，Kalshi 的體育賽事合同與體育博彩非常相似，因此屬於內華達州博彩法規的管轄範圍。Kalshi 已向美國第九巡迴上訴法院提出上訴。在新澤西州，地方法院裁定支持 Kalshi，但該州的博彩監管機構已向美國第三巡迴上訴法院提出上訴。在馬里蘭州，地方法院審理了博彩監管機構的案件。法官亞當·B 裁定 Kalshi... Kalshi 已向美國第四巡迴上訴法院提出上訴，理由是未能證明 “國會有明確和明確的意圖剝奪各州對賭博的監管權。” 律師事務所 Benesch 評論稱，“隨着全國辯論的持續，類似的分歧預計將在上訴法院層面出現，這將為最高法院在未來幾年解決這一問題奠定基礎……如果上訴法院恰好一致支持 Kalshi 的立場，其他預測市場可能會效仿，並在最高法院審理案件之前開始類似的運營；然而，如果上訴法院得出不同的結論，處於類似情況的公司可能會在採取行動之前等待更明確的法律信號。無論如何，Kalshi 的訴訟將為國家體育博彩和賭博行業創造一個具有直接和深遠影響的先例。” 總之，預測市場是否應遵守州賭博法規仍然是一個懸而未決的問題。根本矛盾在於預測市場與體育博彩在產品和服務提供者方面的相似性，以及監管要求的差異。這是一場關於監管適應的拉鋸戰。在上訴法院甚至最高法院作出最終裁決之前，預測市場與體育博彩之間的灰色地帶將長期存在，監管衝突將難以避免。在短期內，各州可能會通過執法和訴訟繼續捍衞其監管權利和税基；而預測市場平台將試圖利用聯邦合規和創新敍事作為盾牌，以獲得更大的生存空間。</h2>
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預測市場已經撼動了數十億美元的賭博行業，如今正受到傳統勢力的追趕