<p>儘管比特幣距離歷史最高點下跌近 30%，但仍然讓投資者對反彈的可能性感到興奮。</p>
<p>在本次報道時，該資產的交易價格為 92,231 美元，處於一個關鍵區域，這個區域持續引發多頭與空頭之間的爭論。</p>
<p>交易者普遍認為這個水平是一個臨界點，可能會推動價格重新上漲至 100,000 美元，或者引發回調至 80,000 美元區域。鏈上數據和情緒指標現在提供了更清晰的洞察，顯示投資者的佈局情況。</p>
<h2><strong>一年變化能否預示下一次反彈？</strong></h2>
<p>比特幣的 [BTC] 一年表現變化在歷史上一直是識別牛市和熊市早期階段的可靠指標。</p>
<p>在報道時，一年表現變化為-4.5%，這表明比特幣尚未完全進入熊市區域。</p>
<p>然而，這一温和的下跌反映了過去週期中較為罕見的情景，即比特幣的一年價格變化短暫轉為負值後，隨之而來的是強勁的反彈。在 2021 年牛市前也出現過類似的情況。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>為了更好地理解，前一個週期始於 2020 年 3 月，當時比特幣的底部約為 3,782 美元，隨後上漲至歷史最高點 64,850 美元。這一波動代表了在該週期內超過 1,600% 的收益。</p>
<p>雖然類似幅度的收益並不保證，但一年百分比變化回到正值區域可能會使比特幣在向新的歷史最高點邁進時佔據優勢。</p>
<p>然而，如果一年百分比變化未能轉為正值，可能標誌着更深的下行趨勢的開始，以及另一個熊市的早期階段。</p>
<h2><strong>百分比變化是否足以確認熊市階段？</strong></h2>
<p>年度百分比變化持續為負值將不是判斷比特幣是否進入長期下行的唯一指標。</p>
<p>其他技術因素也將發揮關鍵作用。</p>
<p>其中之一是比特幣的兩年簡單移動平均線，目前約為 84,500 美元。</p>
<p>這一水平在歷史上一直作為下行風險的主要指標。分析師 Joao Wedson 警告稱，失去這一水平將顯著增加拋售的概率。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Alphractal</p>
<p>對比特幣的清算熱圖分析揭示了流動性集羣在這一 SMA 支撐周圍的佈局，並顯示價格可能的反應。</p>
<p>在報道時，市場在 85,400 美元區域的流動性有限。</p>
<p>然而，交易者在上述價格水平的上下方堆積了大量流動性。上方流動性從 86,817 美元到 90,000 美元區域，而下方則集中在 81,609 美元到 81,733 美元之間。</p>
<p>這些區域通常作為需求區，因為價格往往在進入這些區域後才會做出決定性動作。如果 86,000 美元到 90,000 美元之間的流動性起到催化作用，比特幣可能會從這個範圍內上漲。</p>
<p>如果這一區域未能維持，比特幣可能會失去 84,500 美元的支撐水平，並滑向 81,000 美元區域，面臨進一步下行的風險。</p>
<h2><strong>情緒依然看漲</strong></h2>
<p>儘管技術面存在不確定性，但市場情緒仍然大體看漲。</p>
<p>社區情緒指標允許交易者和投資者對價格前景進行投票，顯示出強烈的樂觀情緒。目前，約 80% 的 590 萬投票者支持比特幣的看漲情景。</p>
<p>雖然情緒本身不足以確認牛市，但行業人士也在表達信心。幣安聯合創始人趙長鵬最近在 X 上發帖，暗示超級週期可能即將到來。</p>
<p>他寫道，</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“我可能錯了，但超級週期即將來臨。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p>趙將他的部分觀點歸因於美國最近的發展，包括將加密貨幣從某些風險分類中移除，他認為這是該行業的積極信號。</p>
<p>儘管具有投機性，超級週期的前景可能會將比特幣推回其歷史最高點，並支持短暫負年度變化後隨之而來的重大反彈這一罕見歷史模式。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最後思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>比特幣的一年百分比變化顯示出與啓動延續至 2025 年的多個月牛市的設置相似的模式。</em></li>
<li><em>兩年支撐水平仍然是決定多頭或空頭將控制市場的關鍵區域，一些分析師已經呼籲潛在的 “超級週期”。</em></li>
</ul>
<hr/>

GBTC

<p>比特幣目前的交易價格為 92,231 美元，較歷史最高點下跌近 30%，但投資者對潛在反彈仍持樂觀態度。該資產正處於一個關鍵水平，這可能導致價格上漲至 100,000 美元或回調至 80,000 美元。一年期的表現變化為-4.5%，表明其尚未完全進入熊市。分析師建議，如果比特幣的價格能夠重新回到正區間，這可能預示着一次重大上漲。市場情緒依然看漲，80% 的投票者支持看漲前景，關於潛在超級週期的討論也在逐漸浮現</p>

<p>Despite being nearly 30% down from its all-time high, Bitcoin has kept investors enthusiastic about the possibility of a rebound.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管比特幣距離歷史最高點下跌近 30%，但仍然讓投資者對反彈的可能性感到興奮。</p>
</div><p>The asset, trading at $92,231 at the time of this press, sat in a critical zone that continues to fuel the bulls-versus-bears debate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本次報道時，該資產的交易價格為 92,231 美元，處於一個關鍵區域，這個區域持續引發多頭與空頭之間的爭論。</p>
</div><p>Traders widely view this level as a tipping point that could either drive a renewed rally toward $100,000 or trigger a pullback into the $80,000 region. On-chain data and sentiment indicators now offer clearer insight into how investors are positioning themselves.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者普遍認為這個水平是一個臨界點，可能會推動價格重新上漲至 100,000 美元，或者引發回調至 80,000 美元區域。鏈上數據和情緒指標現在提供了更清晰的洞察，顯示投資者的佈局情況。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Can the one-year change signal the next rally?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>一年變化能否預示下一次反彈？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin’s [BTC] one-year performance change has historically served as a reliable indicator in identifying the early stages of both bull and bear markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣的 [BTC] 一年表現變化在歷史上一直是識別牛市和熊市早期階段的可靠指標。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the one-year performance change stood at -4.5%, suggesting that Bitcoin is not fully in bearish territory yet.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在報道時，一年表現變化為-4.5%，這表明比特幣尚未完全進入熊市區域。</p>
</div><p>This modest decline, however, mirrored one of the rarer scenarios seen in a past cycle, where Bitcoin’s one-year price change briefly turned negative before a strong rally followed. A similar setup emerged ahead of the 2021 bull run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這一温和的下跌反映了過去週期中較為罕見的情景，即比特幣的一年價格變化短暫轉為負值後，隨之而來的是強勁的反彈。在 2021 年牛市前也出現過類似的情況。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-VlQ_cWIAELvyK-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>To put this into perspective, the previous cycle began in March 2020, when Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,782 before rallying to an all-time high of $64,850. That move represented a gain of more than 1,600% within the cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了更好地理解，前一個週期始於 2020 年 3 月，當時比特幣的底部約為 3,782 美元，隨後上漲至歷史最高點 64,850 美元。這一波動代表了在該週期內超過 1,600% 的收益。</p>
</div><p>While a similar magnitude of gains is not guaranteed, a shift in the one-year percentage change back into positive territory could give Bitcoin an edge in making a major upward swing toward a new all-time high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然類似幅度的收益並不保證，但一年百分比變化回到正值區域可能會使比特幣在向新的歷史最高點邁進時佔據優勢。</p>
</div><p>However, if the one-year percentage change fails to turn green, it could mark the start of a deeper downtrend and the early stages of another bear market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果一年百分比變化未能轉為正值，可能標誌着更深的下行趨勢的開始，以及另一個熊市的早期階段。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is the percent change enough to confirm a bear phase?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>百分比變化是否足以確認熊市階段？</strong></h2>
</div><p>A sustained negative reading in the yearly percent change will not be the only metric to watch in determining whether Bitcoin is entering a prolonged decline.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>年度百分比變化持續為負值將不是判斷比特幣是否進入長期下行的唯一指標。</p>
</div><p>Other technical factors will also play a key role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其他技術因素也將發揮關鍵作用。</p>
</div><p>One of these is Bitcoin’s two-year simple moving average, which currently sits around $84,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其中之一是比特幣的兩年簡單移動平均線，目前約為 84,500 美元。</p>
</div><p>This level has historically acted as a major indicator of downside risk. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the probability of capitulation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一水平在歷史上一直作為下行風險的主要指標。分析師 Joao Wedson 警告稱，失去這一水平將顯著增加拋售的概率。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/DD4D0E13-7CC1-423F-8D65-4D773D8C7BCB.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Alphractal</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Alphractal</p>
</div><p>An analysis of Bitcoin’s Liquidation Heatmap revealed how liquidity clusters are positioned around this SMA support and signals how the price is likely to react.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對比特幣的清算熱圖分析揭示了流動性集羣在這一 SMA 支撐周圍的佈局，並顯示價格可能的反應。</p>
</div><p>At press time, the market showed limited liquidity around the $85,400 region.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在報道時，市場在 85,400 美元區域的流動性有限。</p>
</div><p>However, traders have stacked substantial liquidity both above and below the aforementioned price level. On the upside, liquidity builds from $86,817 up to the $90,000 zone, while on the downside, it concentrates between $81,609 and $81,733.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，交易者在上述價格水平的上下方堆積了大量流動性。上方流動性從 86,817 美元到 90,000 美元區域，而下方則集中在 81,609 美元到 81,733 美元之間。</p>
</div><p>These zones often act as demand areas, as price tends to trade into them before making a decisive move. If the liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000 acts as a catalyst, Bitcoin could swing higher from this range.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些區域通常作為需求區，因為價格往往在進入這些區域後才會做出決定性動作。如果 86,000 美元到 90,000 美元之間的流動性起到催化作用，比特幣可能會從這個範圍內上漲。</p>
</div><p>If this region fails to hold, Bitcoin could lose the $84,500 support level and slide toward the $81,000 region, with the risk of further downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果這一區域未能維持，比特幣可能會失去 84,500 美元的支撐水平，並滑向 81,000 美元區域，面臨進一步下行的風險。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Sentiment remains bullish</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>情緒依然看漲</strong></h2>
</div><p>Despite the technical uncertainty, market sentiment remains largely bullish.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管技術面存在不確定性，但市場情緒仍然大體看漲。</p>
</div><p>Community Sentiment indicators, which allow traders and investors to vote on their price outlook, show strong optimism. Currently, around 80% of 5.9 million voters are backing a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>社區情緒指標允許交易者和投資者對價格前景進行投票，顯示出強烈的樂觀情緒。目前，約 80% 的 590 萬投票者支持比特幣的看漲情景。</p>
</div><p>While sentiment alone is not enough to confirm a bull market, industry figures are also expressing confidence. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, recently posted on X, suggesting that a super cycle could be approaching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然情緒本身不足以確認牛市，但行業人士也在表達信心。幣安聯合創始人趙長鵬最近在 X 上發帖，暗示超級週期可能即將到來。</p>
</div><p>He wrote,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他寫道，</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“I could be wrong, but Super Cycle incoming.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“我可能錯了，但超級週期即將來臨。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Zhao attributed part of his outlook to recent developments in the United States, including the removal of crypto from certain risk classifications, which he views as a positive signal for the sector.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趙將他的部分觀點歸因於美國最近的發展，包括將加密貨幣從某些風險分類中移除，他認為這是該行業的積極信號。</p>
</div><p>Although speculative, the prospect of a super cycle could push Bitcoin back toward its all-time high and support the rare historical pattern where a brief negative yearly change precedes a major rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管具有投機性，超級週期的前景可能會將比特幣推回其歷史最高點，並支持短暫負年度變化後隨之而來的重大反彈這一罕見歷史模式。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最後思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Bitcoin’s one-year percentage change is showing a similar pattern to the setup that kickstarted the multi-month bull run that extended into 2025.</em></li>
<li><em>The two-year support level remains a key zone in determining whether bulls or bears will take control, with some analysts already calling for a potential “super cycle.”</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>比特幣的一年百分比變化顯示出與啓動延續至 2025 年的多個月牛市的設置相似的模式。</em></li>
<li><em>兩年支撐水平仍然是決定多頭或空頭將控制市場的關鍵區域，一些分析師已經呼籲潛在的 “超級週期”。</em></li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div>

隨着超級週期的討論浮出水面，比特幣接近這一罕見的設置——如果……比特幣可能會出現上漲