<p>作者：Saeed Azhar</p>
<p>紐約，1 月 12 日（路透社）——高盛（Goldman Sachs，GS.N）預計到 2026 年底，10 年期國債收益率將上升至 4.4%，超過當前的 4.175%，其財富管理部門的投資策略小組在週一的報告中表示，美國經濟增長將超過其長期趨勢。</p>
<p>這家華爾街銀行表示，美國經濟增長率可能為 2.3%，高於全球最大經濟體的 2% 趨勢。</p>
<p>高盛投資策略小組的戰術資產配置負責人佈雷特·尼爾森（Brett Nelson）告訴記者，強勁的增長 “確實傾向於使收益率曲線陡峭，因為經濟增長超過其趨勢率，而我們預計美聯儲將會降息，美聯儲降息的目標實際上是刺激經濟。”</p>
<p>收益率曲線的陡峭化意味着長期和短期利率之間的差距在擴大，通常預示着對未來強勁經濟增長的預期。</p>
<p>LSEG 數據顯示，利率期貨交易者押注 2026 年將總共降息約 50 個基點，或兩次各降 25 個基點。</p>
<p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）將在 5 月結束任期，未來的利率政策可能會在他的接任者手中發生變化。自去年以來，特朗普總統一直在施壓美聯儲，要求更激進的降息，預計將在未來幾個月內任命鮑威爾的繼任者。</p>
<p>然而，12 月失業率的下降緩解了對勞動力市場疲軟的擔憂，交易者押注鮑威爾在 5 月任期結束前已經進行了最後一次降息。</p>
<p>這將使任何進一步的政策寬鬆掌握在特朗普總統選擇的鮑威爾繼任者手中。</p>
<p>尼爾森表示：“將利率維持在異常低的水平將是自我挫敗的，因為這隻會導致金融市場使收益率曲線陡峭化。”</p>

高盛

<p>By Saeed Azhar</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Saeed Azhar</p>
</div><p>NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs (GS.N) expects the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 4.4% by the end of 2026, surpassing the current 4.175%, with U.S. economic growth outpacing its long-term trend, a report by its wealth management unit’s investment strategy group said on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>紐約，1 月 12 日（路透社）——高盛（Goldman Sachs，GS.N）預計到 2026 年底，10 年期國債收益率將上升至 4.4%，超過當前的 4.175%，其財富管理部門的投資策略小組在週一的報告中表示，美國經濟增長將超過其長期趨勢。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. economic growth rate could be 2.3%, above the 2% trend for the world’s biggest economy, the Wall Street bank said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這家華爾街銀行表示，美國經濟增長率可能為 2.3%，高於全球最大經濟體的 2% 趨勢。</p>
</div><p>Stronger growth “does tend to steepen the yield curve because you have growth running above its trend rate and then while we do expect the Fed to be cutting, the objective of Fed cuts is actually to stimulate the economy,” Brett Nelson, head of tactical asset allocation for Goldman Sachs Investment Strategy Group, told reporters.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛投資策略小組的戰術資產配置負責人佈雷特·尼爾森（Brett Nelson）告訴記者，強勁的增長 “確實傾向於使收益率曲線陡峭，因為經濟增長超過其趨勢率，而我們預計美聯儲將會降息，美聯儲降息的目標實際上是刺激經濟。”</p>
</div><p>A steeper yield curve means the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates is widening, often signalling expectations for strong future economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收益率曲線的陡峭化意味着長期和短期利率之間的差距在擴大，通常預示着對未來強勁經濟增長的預期。</p>
</div><p>Rates futures traders are betting on a total of roughly 50 basis points in interest rate cuts for 2026, or two cuts of 25 basis points each, LSEG data showed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LSEG 數據顯示，利率期貨交易者押注 2026 年將總共降息約 50 個基點，或兩次各降 25 個基點。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is set to end his term in May, with future rate policy potentially shifting under his replacement. President Donald Trump, who has been pressuring the Fed since last year for more aggressive rate cuts, is expected to name Powell’s successor in the coming months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）將在 5 月結束任期，未來的利率政策可能會在他的接任者手中發生變化。自去年以來，特朗普總統一直在施壓美聯儲，要求更激進的降息，預計將在未來幾個月內任命鮑威爾的繼任者。</p>
</div><p>The drop in the unemployment rate in December has however eased concerns about labor market weakness, with traders betting Powell has delivered his last interest rate cut before his term ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，12 月失業率的下降緩解了對勞動力市場疲軟的擔憂，交易者押注鮑威爾在 5 月任期結束前已經進行了最後一次降息。</p>
</div><p>That leaves any further policy easing in the hands of whomever President Trump taps as Powell’s successor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這將使任何進一步的政策寬鬆掌握在特朗普總統選擇的鮑威爾繼任者手中。</p>
</div><p>“It would be self-defeating to keep rates at an abnormally low level because you would simply get the financial markets steepening the yield curve,” Nelson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尼爾森表示：“將利率維持在異常低的水平將是自我挫敗的，因為這隻會導致金融市場使收益率曲線陡峭化。”</p>
</div>

高盛預計，由於美國經濟增長高於趨勢，10 年期美國國債收益率將會上升