<p>疲弱的日元引發干預擔憂，兑美元匯率創下 2024 年 7 月以來最低</p><p>美聯儲獨立性擔憂仍在投資者心中</p><p>在地緣政治緊張局勢中，黃金和白銀達到歷史新高</p><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p><p>新加坡，1 月 14 日（路透社）- 亞洲股市週三上漲，受到日本股市的提振，投資者為可能導致更多財政刺激的日本快選做好準備，同時對中央銀行獨立性和温和的美國通脹數據的擔憂使貨幣波動加劇。</p><p>全球的地緣政治緊張局勢推動黃金創下歷史新高，並使油價上漲，美國總統唐納德·特朗普呼籲伊朗人繼續抗議，稱援助即將到來。伊朗則指責特朗普鼓勵政治不穩定和煽動暴力。</p><p>日本日元（JPY=）在亞洲早盤時段兑美元匯率跌至 159.415，創下 2024 年 7 月以來的最低水平，市場干預的威脅再次浮現。當地媒體報道稱，首相高市早苗正在考慮於 2 月 8 日召開快選。</p><p>疲弱的日元和更多刺激的前景使日經指數（.N225）上漲超過 1%，創下新高，並推動日本國債下跌，這種被稱為 “高市交易” 的現象本週似乎得到了加速，因為投資者對該國的財政健康感到擔憂。</p><p>State Street Investment Management 的高級固定收益策略師 Masahiko Loo 表示，市場的波動反映了對財政寬鬆的預期，儘管考慮到政治限制，這些預期可能被誇大，因為高市的聯盟需要在上院獲得反對派的支持才能通過立法。</p><p>“如果日元突破 161 的水平，可能會觸發新的干預以遏制過度波動，” Loo 説。“在這種情況下，對日本銀行加息的預期可能會提前到 4 月，這可能成為貨幣動態的轉折點。”</p><p>MSCI 亞太地區股票的最廣泛指數（.MIAP00000PUS）上漲 0.2%，徘徊在週二創下的歷史最高點下方。隔夜，美國股市收盤下跌，金融股領跌，此前摩根大通高管的評論加劇了對特朗普最近提出的信用卡利率上限提案的擔憂。</p><p>中國股市（.CSI300）在早盤交易中上漲 0.7%，略低於週二創下的 10 年高點。歐洲股指期貨（STXEc1）上漲 0.1%，指向平淡的開盤。</p><h3>通脹降温</h3><p>週二的數據表明，美國上個月的潛在通脹壓力適度。經濟學家表示，這表明進口關税對價格的傳導正在減緩，使得今年的降息仍在考慮之中，儘管普遍預期美聯儲本月將維持利率不變。</p><p>交易員預計今年至少會有兩次降息，但預計在美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的任期在 5 月結束後才會採取行動。</p><p>StoneX 的高級市場分析師 Matt Simpson 表示，美國通脹沒有足夠降温，無法推動降息的臨近。</p><p>“由於缺乏經濟角度的降息熱情，美元可能在潮流轉向看跌之前享受更多的買盤，” Simpson 説。</p><p>美元指數（=USD），追蹤美元兑包括日元和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的表現，微幅上漲至 99.243，此前在上一交易日上漲了 0.2%。</p><p>由於投資者擔心特朗普下台後美聯儲的獨立性，美元在本週初受到打擊，此前美國司法部威脅要起訴美聯儲主席鮑威爾，原因是與一項建築翻新項目有關。</p><p>這導致鮑威爾發表了強烈的反駁，全球中央銀行官員隨後在週二聯合發表聲明支持他。</p><p>Balfour Capital Group 的首席投資官 Steve Lawrence 表示，市場似乎將這一事件視為主要是政治性的，而不是實質性的機構威脅。</p><p>“鮑威爾將任何起訴威脅的描述為恐嚇，進一步強化了這種解讀，表明機構防禦而非升級，” Lawrence 説。“從市場的角度來看，這表明美聯儲周圍現有的防護措施仍被視為完好無損。”</p><p>在商品市場，黃金（XAU=）上漲 0.6%，至每盎司 4,613.93 美元，白銀（XAG=）上漲超過 2%，也攀升至歷史新高。</p>

<p>Frail yen stokes intervention worries, hits lowest vs dollar since July 2024</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的日元引發干預擔憂，兑美元匯率創下 2024 年 7 月以來最低</p>
</div><p>Fed independence worries remain on investors mind</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲獨立性擔憂仍在投資者心中</p>
</div><p>Gold and silver reach record highs amid geopolitical tensions</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在地緣政治緊張局勢中，黃金和白銀達到歷史新高</p>
</div><p>By Ankur Banerjee</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Ankur Banerjee</p>
</div><p>SINGAPORE, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose on Wednesday, buoyed by Japanese shares, as investors braced for a snap election in Japan that could lead to more fiscal stimulus, while worries about central bank independence and benign U.S. inflation data whipsawed currencies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>新加坡，1 月 14 日（路透社）- 亞洲股市週三上漲，受到日本股市的提振，投資者為可能導致更多財政刺激的日本快選做好準備，同時對中央銀行獨立性和温和的美國通脹數據的擔憂使貨幣波動加劇。</p>
</div><p>Geopolitical tensions across the globe lifted gold to a record peak and sent oil prices higher as U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranians to keep protesting, saying help is on the way. Iran in turn accused Trump of encouraging political destabilization and inciting violence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球的地緣政治緊張局勢推動黃金創下歷史新高，並使油價上漲，美國總統唐納德·特朗普呼籲伊朗人繼續抗議，稱援助即將到來。伊朗則指責特朗普鼓勵政治不穩定和煽動暴力。</p>
</div><p>The Japanese yen (JPY=) hit its weakest level since July 2024 at 159.415 per dollar in early Asian hours, as the threat of a market intervention resurfaced. Local media reported that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was considering calling a snap lower house election on February 8.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本日元（JPY=）在亞洲早盤時段兑美元匯率跌至 159.415，創下 2024 年 7 月以來的最低水平，市場干預的威脅再次浮現。當地媒體報道稱，首相高市早苗正在考慮於 2 月 8 日召開快選。</p>
</div><p>The frail yen and the prospect of more stimulus sent the Nikkei (.N225) up more than 1% to a record and pushed Japanese government bonds lower, a so-called “Takaichi trade” that appears to have been turbocharged this week as investors worry about the country’s fiscal health.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲弱的日元和更多刺激的前景使日經指數（.N225）上漲超過 1%，創下新高，並推動日本國債下跌，這種被稱為 “高市交易” 的現象本週似乎得到了加速，因為投資者對該國的財政健康感到擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management, said the market moves reflected expectations of fiscal easing, though they may be overstated given political constraints as Takaichi’s coalition would need the opposition’s support in the upper house to pass legislation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>State Street Investment Management 的高級固定收益策略師 Masahiko Loo 表示，市場的波動反映了對財政寬鬆的預期，儘管考慮到政治限制，這些預期可能被誇大，因為高市的聯盟需要在上院獲得反對派的支持才能通過立法。</p>
</div><p>“Any sharp and decisive break beyond 161 level (for yen) could trigger renewed intervention to curb excessive volatility,” Loo said. “In that scenario, expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike may shift forward to April, potentially serving as an inflection point for currency dynamics.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果日元突破 161 的水平，可能會觸發新的干預以遏制過度波動，” Loo 説。“在這種情況下，對日本銀行加息的預期可能會提前到 4 月，這可能成為貨幣動態的轉折點。”</p>
</div><p>MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares (.MIAP00000PUS) was up 0.2% to hover just below a record peak reached on Tuesday. Overnight, U.S. stocks ended lower, led by a drop in financial shares after comments from JPMorgan executives added to worries about Trump’s recent proposal for a cap on credit card rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MSCI 亞太地區股票的最廣泛指數（.MIAP00000PUS）上漲 0.2%，徘徊在週二創下的歷史最高點下方。隔夜，美國股市收盤下跌，金融股領跌，此前摩根大通高管的評論加劇了對特朗普最近提出的信用卡利率上限提案的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Chinese stocks (.CSI300) rose 0.7% in early trade, just below a 10-year high that was hit on Tuesday. European stock futures (STXEc1) rose 0.1%, pointing to a muted open.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國股市（.CSI300）在早盤交易中上漲 0.7%，略低於週二創下的 10 年高點。歐洲股指期貨（STXEc1）上漲 0.1%，指向平淡的開盤。</p>
</div><h3>COOLING INFLATION</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>通脹降温</h3>
</div><p>Data on Tuesday showed moderate underlying inflation pressures last month in the U.S. Economists said this suggested the pass-through of import tariffs to prices was slowing, keeping rate cuts on the table this year, although the broad expectation is for the Fed to stand pat this month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週二的數據表明，美國上個月的潛在通脹壓力適度。經濟學家表示，這表明進口關税對價格的傳導正在減緩，使得今年的降息仍在考慮之中，儘管普遍預期美聯儲本月將維持利率不變。</p>
</div><p>Traders are pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, with a move not expected until after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易員預計今年至少會有兩次降息，但預計在美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的任期在 5 月結束後才會採取行動。</p>
</div><p>Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at StoneX, said U.S. inflation is not slowing sufficiently to move the needle towards imminent rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>StoneX 的高級市場分析師 Matt Simpson 表示，美國通脹沒有足夠降温，無法推動降息的臨近。</p>
</div><p>“With lack of enthusiasm for cuts from an economic perspective, the US dollar might enjoy a bit more of a bid before the tide reverts to bearish hands,” Simpson said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由於缺乏經濟角度的降息熱情，美元可能在潮流轉向看跌之前享受更多的買盤，” Simpson 説。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index (=USD) , which tracks the greenback’s performance against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, inched higher to 99.243 after rising 0.2% in the previous session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指數（=USD），追蹤美元兑包括日元和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的表現，微幅上漲至 99.243，此前在上一交易日上漲了 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>The dollar was knocked back at the start of the week as investors worried about Fed independence under Trump after the U.S. Department of Justice threatened to indict Fed Chair Powell in connection with a building renovation project.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於投資者擔心特朗普下台後美聯儲的獨立性，美元在本週初受到打擊，此前美國司法部威脅要起訴美聯儲主席鮑威爾，原因是與一項建築翻新項目有關。</p>
</div><p>That led to a sharp rebuke from Powell and global central bank officials later issued a coordinated statement of support for him on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這導致鮑威爾發表了強烈的反駁，全球中央銀行官員隨後在週二聯合發表聲明支持他。</p>
</div><p>Steve Lawrence, chief investment officer of Balfour Capital Group, said markets appeared to view this episode as largely political rather than a substantive institutional threat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Balfour Capital Group 的首席投資官 Steve Lawrence 表示，市場似乎將這一事件視為主要是政治性的，而不是實質性的機構威脅。</p>
</div><p>“Powell’s characterization of any threat of indictment as intimidation reinforces that interpretation, signalling institutional defence rather than escalation,” Lawrence said. “From a market perspective, this suggests existing guardrails around the Fed are still seen as intact.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“鮑威爾將任何起訴威脅的描述為恐嚇，進一步強化了這種解讀，表明機構防禦而非升級，” Lawrence 説。“從市場的角度來看，這表明美聯儲周圍現有的防護措施仍被視為完好無損。”</p>
</div><p>In commodities, gold (XAU=) rose 0.6% to $4,613.93 per ounce and silver (XAG=) surged more than 2%, also climbing to a record high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在商品市場，黃金（XAU=）上漲 0.6%，至每盎司 4,613.93 美元，白銀（XAG=）上漲超過 2%，也攀升至歷史新高。</p>
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全球市場 - 亞洲股市略有上漲，脆弱的日元引發了對干預的擔憂