<p>儘管美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在週日披露他收到了與美聯儲總部裝修相關的司法部傳票，引發了政治風暴，但多位華爾街分析師認為，真正的風暴眼在於即將於 1 月 21 日舉行的美國最高法院聽證會。</p>
<p>在那一天，法院將聽取與唐納德·特朗普總統試圖罷免美聯儲理事麗莎·庫克相關的辯論。裁決可能會建立一個關鍵的法律先例：白宮是否可以援引 “正當理由” 條款繞過《美聯儲法》下的保護，強制解僱在職的美聯儲官員。</p>
<p>美國銀行經濟學家阿迪提亞·巴哈夫在最近的一份報告中直言不諱：“對庫克的不利裁決將大幅提高鮑威爾因司法部調查而最終被罷免的可能性。我們一直認為，庫克案件對政策前景的影響比下一任美聯儲主席的身份更為重要。我們現在認為這一觀點得到了更堅定的支持。” 他強調，該案件將作為一個試金石，檢驗總統是否能夠重塑美聯儲的機構結構。</p>
<p>市場正在密切關注。如果美聯儲的獨立性受到侵犯，指導貨幣政策的框架可能會從基於證據轉變為政治驅動——這對長期資本成本和資產定價構成根本威脅。</p>
<p>這些事態發展已經在金融市場上引起了波動。根據 CME 集團的數據，交易員們大幅增加了對美聯儲在即將召開的政策會議上不採取行動的押注，將下次降息的預期推遲到 6 月。查爾斯·施瓦布的宏觀研究與戰略負責人凱文·戈登指出，儘管市場對鮑威爾消息的即時反應幅度有限，但方向卻是明確的：美元下跌，股票下跌，債券下跌——這為市場在衝擊持續的情況下如何定價這一風險提供了預覽。</p>
<h3>最高法院的 “決定性戰役”：庫克案件的連鎖反應</h3>
<p>對於投資者來説，1 月 21 日是值得在日曆上圈出的日期。</p>
<p>聽證會的核心是特朗普政府指控麗莎·庫克在抵押貸款申請中虛報了她的主要居住地，構成欺詐。儘管早期的罷免努力被法院阻止，但如果白宮這次勝訴，將為總統 “正當理由” 解僱美聯儲官員鋪平法律道路。</p>
<p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="810" height="513" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e"/></p>
<p>根據 Axios 的報道，1913 年的《美聯儲法》允許總統僅在 “正當理由” 下罷免董事會成員。雪城大學的法學副教授珍妮·布林指出，儘管最高法院此前已賦予總統對其他機構官員更廣泛的解僱權，但歷史上一直試圖將美聯儲作為一個 “結構獨特、準私營實體” 進行保護。她警告稱，如果裁決支持特朗普，這將進一步侵蝕對行政權力的限制。</p>
<p>《巴倫週刊》的評論警告投資者可能過於自滿。如果法院允許庫克被解僱，特朗普將更容易根據調查結果罷免鮑威爾。文章警告稱：“如果投資者感覺特朗普將獲得廣泛的 ‘正當理由’ 罷免理事的權力，本月可能標誌着下一個熊市的開始——甚至是市場崩盤。”</p>
<h3>市場的長期結構性風險</h3>
<p>這場法律鬥爭的影響遠遠超出了短期波動。</p>
<p>《巴倫週刊》認為，如果特朗普勝訴併成功 “填補” 美聯儲，最壞的情況不僅僅是一個在經濟週期良性階段被容忍的鴿派央行。真正的危險在於，當經濟週期需要加息時，一個政治忠誠的美聯儲拒絕採取行動。在那時，市場將付出更高的結構性代價。</p>
<p>查爾斯·施瓦布的凱文·戈登強調，庫克裁決 “將在定義任何總統塑造美聯儲結構的能力方面具有巨大影響。”</p>
<p>珍妮·布林補充説，對鮑威爾的調查表明，政府越來越不受民主規範的約束，使得任何司法制衡顯得尤為重要。如果法院未能明確捍衞美聯儲的獨立性，唯一剩下的約束可能就是市場本身——通過劇烈的拋售來阻止進一步的總統干預中央銀行。</p>
<h3>鮑威爾的反擊：繼續擔任理事直至最後一刻</h3>
<p>諷刺的是，特朗普政府的激進策略可能適得其反。</p>
<p>根據 CNBC 的報道，針對鮑威爾的調查——重點是他是否誤導國會關於裝修項目——可能反而堅定了他在擔任主席任期結束後繼續留在美聯儲董事會的決心。</p>
<p>雖然鮑威爾的主席任期在 5 月結束，但他作為美聯儲理事的任期將持續到 2028 年。這將使他能夠繼續留在聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC），繼續成為特朗普推動激進降息的障礙。</p>
<p>德意志銀行首席美國經濟學家馬修·盧澤蒂向客户表示：“雖然這從未是我們的基本情況，但這個週末的事件可能提高鮑威爾選擇留在美聯儲的可能性。事實上，如果政府繼續對鮑威爾主席提出刑事指控，而參議院共和黨人拒絕推進新理事的提名，FOMC 可能合理地選擇鮑威爾繼續擔任主席。”</p>
<p>來自 Polymarket 的數據表明，鮑威爾在其主席任期結束後繼續擔任美聯儲理事的概率已上升至 55% 以上。自上週以來，他在年底前離開董事會的幾率已從 70% 降至 60% 以下。</p>
<p>鮑威爾本人在週日發佈的一份聲明中暗示了這一可能性：</p>
<p>“我將繼續以誠信和為美國人民服務的承諾，履行參議院確認我所做的工作。”</p>

<p>下週二，美國最高法院將就特朗普解僱聯邦儲備委員會成員麗莎·庫克的案件進行聽證，這將成為捍衞聯邦儲備獨立性的關鍵轉折點。分析師警告稱，如果白宮勝訴，將為特朗普解除鮑威爾的職務打開法律漏洞。一旦聯邦儲備的獨立性受到損害，可能會引發嚴重的資產重新定價和市場動盪。“本月可能標誌着下一個熊市的開始，甚至是市場崩盤。”</p>

<p>Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell ignited a political firestorm on Sunday by disclosing that he had received a Justice Department subpoena related to the renovation of the Fed’s headquarters, multiple Wall Street analysts argue that the real eye of the storm lies ahead: a US Supreme Court hearing scheduled for January 21.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾在週日披露他收到了與美聯儲總部裝修相關的司法部傳票，引發了政治風暴，但多位華爾街分析師認為，真正的風暴眼在於即將於 1 月 21 日舉行的美國最高法院聽證會。</p>
</div><p>On that day, the Court will hear arguments related to President Donald Trump’s attempt to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. The ruling could establish a critical legal precedent: whether the White House can invoke “for cause” provisions to bypass protections under the Federal Reserve Act and forcibly dismiss a sitting Fed official.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在那一天，法院將聽取與唐納德·特朗普總統試圖罷免美聯儲理事麗莎·庫克相關的辯論。裁決可能會建立一個關鍵的法律先例：白宮是否可以援引 “正當理由” 條款繞過《美聯儲法》下的保護，強制解僱在職的美聯儲官員。</p>
</div><p>Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave was blunt in a recent note: “An adverse ruling for Cook would materially raise the probability that Powell could ultimately be removed as a result of the Justice Department investigation. We have long believed that the Cook case matters more for the policy outlook than the identity of the next Fed chair. We now believe that view is even more firmly supported.” He stressed that the case will serve as a litmus test for whether a president can reshape the Federal Reserve’s institutional structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國銀行經濟學家阿迪提亞·巴哈夫在最近的一份報告中直言不諱：“對庫克的不利裁決將大幅提高鮑威爾因司法部調查而最終被罷免的可能性。我們一直認為，庫克案件對政策前景的影響比下一任美聯儲主席的身份更為重要。我們現在認為這一觀點得到了更堅定的支持。” 他強調，該案件將作為一個試金石，檢驗總統是否能夠重塑美聯儲的機構結構。</p>
</div><p>Markets are watching closely. If the Fed’s independence were to be breached, the framework guiding monetary policy could shift from being evidence-based to politically driven—posing a fundamental threat to long-term capital costs and asset pricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場正在密切關注。如果美聯儲的獨立性受到侵犯，指導貨幣政策的框架可能會從基於證據轉變為政治驅動——這對長期資本成本和資產定價構成根本威脅。</p>
</div><p>The developments have already rippled through financial markets. According to CME Group data, traders have sharply increased bets that the Fed will take no action at its upcoming policy meeting, pushing expectations for the next rate cut out to June. Kevin Gordon, head of macro research and strategy at Charles Schwab, noted that while the immediate market reaction to Powell’s news was limited in magnitude, the direction was unambiguous: the dollar fell, equities fell, and bonds fell—offering a preview of how markets may price in this risk should the shock persist.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這些事態發展已經在金融市場上引起了波動。根據 CME 集團的數據，交易員們大幅增加了對美聯儲在即將召開的政策會議上不採取行動的押注，將下次降息的預期推遲到 6 月。查爾斯·施瓦布的宏觀研究與戰略負責人凱文·戈登指出，儘管市場對鮑威爾消息的即時反應幅度有限，但方向卻是明確的：美元下跌，股票下跌，債券下跌——這為市場在衝擊持續的情況下如何定價這一風險提供了預覽。</p>
</div><h3>The Supreme Court’s “Decisive Battle”: The Chain Reaction from the Cook Case</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>最高法院的 “決定性戰役”：庫克案件的連鎖反應</h3>
</div><p>For investors, Tuesday, January 21, is a date that deserves a circle on the calendar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於投資者來説，1 月 21 日是值得在日曆上圈出的日期。</p>
</div><p>At the heart of the hearing is the Trump administration’s allegation that Lisa Cook misrepresented her primary residence on a mortgage application, constituting fraud. Although earlier efforts to remove her were blocked by the courts, a White House victory this time would clear the legal path for presidents to dismiss Fed officials “for cause.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聽證會的核心是特朗普政府指控麗莎·庫克在抵押貸款申請中虛報了她的主要居住地，構成欺詐。儘管早期的罷免努力被法院阻止，但如果白宮這次勝訴，將為總統 “正當理由” 解僱美聯儲官員鋪平法律道路。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2026/c6c47f43c74a3d123543b22bfe60f40e"/></p>
<p>According to Axios, the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 allows presidents to remove board members only “for cause.” Jenny Breen, an associate professor of law at Syracuse University, noted that while the Supreme Court has previously granted presidents broader dismissal authority over officials at other agencies, it has historically sought to insulate the Federal Reserve as a “structurally unique, quasi-private entity.” A ruling in Trump’s favor, she warned, would mark a further erosion of constraints on executive power.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Axios 的報道，1913 年的《美聯儲法》允許總統僅在 “正當理由” 下罷免董事會成員。雪城大學的法學副教授珍妮·布林指出，儘管最高法院此前已賦予總統對其他機構官員更廣泛的解僱權，但歷史上一直試圖將美聯儲作為一個 “結構獨特、準私營實體” 進行保護。她警告稱，如果裁決支持特朗普，這將進一步侵蝕對行政權力的限制。</p>
</div><p>A Barron’s commentary cautioned that investors may be dangerously complacent. If the Court permits Cook’s dismissal, Trump would find it far easier to remove Powell on the basis of investigative findings. “If investors sense that Trump will gain broad authority to remove governors ‘for cause,’ this month could mark the beginning of the next bear market—or even a market crash,” the article warned.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《巴倫週刊》的評論警告投資者可能過於自滿。如果法院允許庫克被解僱，特朗普將更容易根據調查結果罷免鮑威爾。文章警告稱：“如果投資者感覺特朗普將獲得廣泛的 ‘正當理由’ 罷免理事的權力，本月可能標誌着下一個熊市的開始——甚至是市場崩盤。”</p>
</div><h3>Long-Term Structural Risks for Markets</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>市場的長期結構性風險</h3>
</div><p>The implications of this legal battle extend well beyond short-term volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這場法律鬥爭的影響遠遠超出了短期波動。</p>
</div><p>Barron’s argued that if Trump prevails and successfully “packs” the Fed, the worst-case scenario is not merely a dovish central bank tolerated during a benign phase of the cycle. The real danger emerges when the economic cycle demands rate hikes—and a politically loyal Fed refuses to act. At that point, markets would pay a far steeper structural price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《巴倫週刊》認為，如果特朗普勝訴併成功 “填補” 美聯儲，最壞的情況不僅僅是一個在經濟週期良性階段被容忍的鴿派央行。真正的危險在於，當經濟週期需要加息時，一個政治忠誠的美聯儲拒絕採取行動。在那時，市場將付出更高的結構性代價。</p>
</div><p>Charles Schwab’s Kevin Gordon emphasized that the Cook ruling “will carry enormous weight in defining the extent of any president’s ability to shape the structure of the Federal Reserve.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查爾斯·施瓦布的凱文·戈登強調，庫克裁決 “將在定義任何總統塑造美聯儲結構的能力方面具有巨大影響。”</p>
</div><p>Jenny Breen added that the investigation into Powell suggests a government increasingly unconstrained by democratic norms, making any judicial check particularly important. If the Court fails to clearly defend the Fed’s independence, the only remaining constraint may be the market itself—through a violent sell-off that halts further presidential interference with the central bank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>珍妮·布林補充説，對鮑威爾的調查表明，政府越來越不受民主規範的約束，使得任何司法制衡顯得尤為重要。如果法院未能明確捍衞美聯儲的獨立性，唯一剩下的約束可能就是市場本身——通過劇烈的拋售來阻止進一步的總統干預中央銀行。</p>
</div><h3>Powell’s Countermove: Staying On as Governor to Fight to the End</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>鮑威爾的反擊：繼續擔任理事直至最後一刻</h3>
</div><p>Ironically, the Trump administration’s aggressive tactics may prove counterproductive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>諷刺的是，特朗普政府的激進策略可能適得其反。</p>
</div><p>According to CNBC, the investigation into Powell—focused on whether he misled Congress about the renovation project—may instead harden his resolve to remain on the Federal Reserve Board after his term as chair expires in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 CNBC 的報道，針對鮑威爾的調查——重點是他是否誤導國會關於裝修項目——可能反而堅定了他在擔任主席任期結束後繼續留在美聯儲董事會的決心。</p>
</div><p>While Powell’s chairmanship ends in May, his term as a Fed governor runs through 2028. That would allow him to remain on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), serving as a continuing obstacle to Trump’s push for aggressive rate cuts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>雖然鮑威爾的主席任期在 5 月結束，但他作為美聯儲理事的任期將持續到 2028 年。這將使他能夠繼續留在聯邦公開市場委員會（FOMC），繼續成為特朗普推動激進降息的障礙。</p>
</div><p>Deutsche Bank’s chief US economist Matthew Luzzetti wrote to clients: “While this has never been our base case, the events of this weekend could raise the probability that Powell chooses to remain at the Fed. In fact, if the administration presses forward with criminal charges against Chair Powell and Senate Republicans refuse to advance nominations for new governors, the FOMC could plausibly select Powell to remain as chair.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>德意志銀行首席美國經濟學家馬修·盧澤蒂向客户表示：“雖然這從未是我們的基本情況，但這個週末的事件可能提高鮑威爾選擇留在美聯儲的可能性。事實上，如果政府繼續對鮑威爾主席提出刑事指控，而參議院共和黨人拒絕推進新理事的提名，FOMC 可能合理地選擇鮑威爾繼續擔任主席。”</p>
</div><p>Data from Polymarket show that the probability of Powell staying on as a Fed governor after his chair term ends has risen above 55%. Since last week, the odds of his departure from the Board by year-end have fallen from 70% to below 60%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自 Polymarket 的數據表明，鮑威爾在其主席任期結束後繼續擔任美聯儲理事的概率已上升至 55% 以上。自上週以來，他在年底前離開董事會的幾率已從 70% 降至 60% 以下。</p>
</div><p>Powell himself hinted at this possibility in a statement released on Sunday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾本人在週日發佈的一份聲明中暗示了這一可能性：</p>
</div><p>“I will continue to carry out the work the Senate confirmed me to do with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我將繼續以誠信和為美國人民服務的承諾，履行參議院確認我所做的工作。”</p>
</div>

Compared with Powell receiving subpoenas, next week’s court hearing is seen as far more consequential for the Federal Reserve’s independence

- 美聯儲主席鮑威爾因裝修受司法部調查，引發市場波動。  
- 最高法院將於 1 月 21 日聽證特朗普對庫克的罷免案，可能重塑美聯儲獨立性。  
- 若裁決支持特朗普，市場面臨長期結構性風險，或進一步影響貨幣政策。

與傑羅姆·鮑威爾收到傳票相比，下週的法庭聽證會被認為對美聯儲的獨立性影響更大