<p>在過去三年中，七大巨頭一直是股市反彈的領先指標。但隨着 2026 年的到來，它們的集體動能似乎正在減弱，這一精英的巨型科技股羣體現在開始對更廣泛的市場產生拖累作用，而不是推動力。</p>
<p>從年初到 1 月 14 日，七大巨頭中的五個成員處於負增長區間。</p>
<p><strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA)，<strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAPL)，<strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MSFT)，<strong>Meta Platforms Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: META)，以及 <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: TSLA) 均出現下滑。</p>
<p>只有 <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) 和 <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) 逆勢而上。</p>
<p>平均來看，該組的年初至今下跌了 1.7%，而受歡迎的 <strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong> (NYSE: MAGS) 在同一時期下跌了 2.5%。</p>
<h2>科技精英在 2026 年初從領頭羊轉變為滯後者</h2>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>名稱</th>
<th>總回報（年初至今）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>NVIDIA Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.18%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+7.14%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.62%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Microsoft Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.30%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+2.49%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Meta Platforms, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.67%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Magnificent Seven（平均）</strong></td>
<td><strong>-1.70%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.50%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>在過去三個月的大部分時間裏，七大巨頭的表現優於等權重市場。隨着 2026 年的開始，這一關係發生了變化。</p>
<p>這一科技精英的表現不佳對更廣泛的市場造成了壓力。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 在 2026 年迄今幾乎持平，僅上漲 0.7%，突顯出指數級表現仍然高度依賴少數幾家巨型公司的影響。</p>
<p>七大巨頭仍佔標準普爾 500 指數總權重的 35% 以上。當去除集中效應時，這種依賴性變得更加明顯。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，持有等權重標準普爾 500 指數的投資者——例如 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong> (NYSE: RSP)——年初至今上漲了 3.3%，表現優於市值加權指數。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png"/></p>
<h2>投資者從科技股轉向價值股</h2>
<p>“納斯達克 100 在去年年底遭遇重創，因為投資者減少了對成長型科技股的投資，同時將收益再投資於被忽視的價值股，”<strong>David Morrison</strong>，Trade Nation 的分析師表示。</p>
<p>“這擴大了股票的投資範圍，對市場來説是一個健康的發展，” 他補充道。</p>
<p>這一轉變在風格因子中表現得非常明顯，價值股在最近幾個月有效地領先於成長股。</p>
<p><strong>Vanguard Value ETF</strong> (NYSE: VTV) 自去年十月中旬以來上漲了 7%，超越了 <strong>Vanguard Growth ETF</strong> (NYSE: VUG) 5 個百分點。</p>
<h2>這只是巨型科技股的暫時停頓嗎？</h2>
<p>一些分析師認為，近期的回調更像是喘息，而不是崩潰，尤其是在第四季度財報即將公佈之際。</p>
<p>根據 <strong>Jeff Buchbinder</strong>，LPL Financial 的首席股票策略師，人工智能仍然是推動盈利增長的主導力量。</p>
<p>與人工智能相關的公司，包括七大巨頭，預計將在第四季度推動標準普爾 500 指數約 80% 的預期 8% 盈利增長，基於當前的估計。</p>
<p>僅科技行業的盈利預計將增長超過 25%，最終結果可能將增長推高至 30% 以上。</p>
<p>“換個角度來看，最大的六家科技公司，即七大巨頭中不包括特斯拉（TSLA），預計將在本季度推動超過 60% 的標準普爾 500 盈利增長，平均增長 19%，” Buchbinder 表示。</p>
<p>這一增速將是指數中剩餘 493 家公司可能交付的增速的兩倍多。</p>
<h2>牛市的下一步是什麼？</h2>
<p>巨型科技股之外的盈利增長悄然改善。根據 LPL Financial 的數據，剩餘的標準普爾 493 家公司在 2025 年第三季度的利潤增長了 11.8%，並可能再次實現兩位數的增長。</p>
<p>這一差距仍然解釋了為什麼該公司更青睞大型成長股而非大型價值股，即使領導地位開始轉變。</p>
<p>真正的轉折點取決於華盛頓。週期性價值股只有在財政政策提供支持的情況下才能繼續獲得增長，而科技股則需要降温，Buchbinder 表示。</p>
<p>他預計，與 “一項美麗的法案” 相關的額外刺激措施可能會延續這一輪換，工業股將成為未來一年的突出主題。</p>
<p>目前，七大巨頭不再單獨支撐市場。華爾街首次看到一個不依賴科技巨頭每一步都在引領的反彈。</p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>

<p>七大科技股（The Magnificent Seven）在 2026 年初失去動能，負面影響標準普爾 500 指數（S&P 500），投資者開始轉向價值股。七大成員中有五個處於負增長狀態，整體年初至今平均下降 1.7%。這一變化表明了更廣泛的市場趨勢，因為等權重指數的表現優於市值加權的標準普爾 500 指數。分析師認為，這一回調可能是暫時的，預計未來一個季度由人工智能相關公司推動的強勁盈利增長將會出現，同時財政政策可能會影響未來的市場動態</p>

<p>For about three years, the Magnificent Seven have been the leading indicators of the equity market rally. But as 2026 gets underway, their collective momentum appears to be fading, and the elite group of mega-cap tech stocks is now starting to act as a drag on the broader market rather than its engine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三年中，七大巨頭一直是股市反彈的領先指標。但隨着 2026 年的到來，它們的集體動能似乎正在減弱，這一精英的巨型科技股羣體現在開始對更廣泛的市場產生拖累作用，而不是推動力。</p>
</div><p>From the start of the year through Jan. 14, five members of the Magnificent Seven sit in negative territory.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從年初到 1 月 14 日，七大巨頭中的五個成員處於負增長區間。</p>
</div><p><strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA), <strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAPL), <strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MSFT), <strong>Meta Platforms Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: META), and <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: TSLA) have all slipped.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Nvidia Corp.</strong> (NASDAQ: NVDA)，<strong>Apple Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AAPL)，<strong>Microsoft Corp.</strong> (NYSE: MSFT)，<strong>Meta Platforms Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: META)，以及 <strong>Tesla Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: TSLA) 均出現下滑。</p>
</div><p>Only <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) and <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) have bucked the trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>只有 <strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) 和 <strong>Amazon.com Inc.</strong> (NASDAQ: AMZN) 逆勢而上。</p>
</div><p>On average, the group is down 1.7% year-to-date while the popular <strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong> (NYSE: MAGS) has fallen 2.5% during the same period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>平均來看，該組的年初至今下跌了 1.7%，而受歡迎的 <strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong> (NYSE: MAGS) 在同一時期下跌了 2.5%。</p>
</div><h2>Tech's Elite Turn From Leaders to Laggers in Early 2026</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>科技精英在 2026 年初從領頭羊轉變為滯後者</h2>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>NAME</th>
<th>TOTAL RETURN (YTD)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>NVIDIA Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.18%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+7.14%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.62%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Microsoft Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.30%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+2.49%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Meta Platforms, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.67%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Magnificent Seven (Average)</strong></td>
<td><strong>-1.70%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.50%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>名稱</th>
<th>總回報（年初至今）</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><strong>NVIDIA Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.18%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Alphabet Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+7.14%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Apple Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-4.62%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Microsoft Corporation</strong></td>
<td><strong>-5.30%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Amazon.com, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>+2.49%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Meta Platforms, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-6.67%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Tesla, Inc.</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.73%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Magnificent Seven（平均）</strong></td>
<td><strong>-1.70%</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><strong>Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF</strong></td>
<td><strong>-2.50%</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><p>For much of the past three months, the Magnificent Seven outperformed the equal-weighted market. That relationship snapped as 2026 began.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去三個月的大部分時間裏，七大巨頭的表現優於等權重市場。隨着 2026 年的開始，這一關係發生了變化。</p>
</div><p>This tech-elite underperformance has weighed on the broader market. The <strong>S&amp;P 500</strong> is barely positive so far in 2026, up just 0.7%, highlighting how heavily index-level performance still depends on a handful of mega-cap names.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一科技精英的表現不佳對更廣泛的市場造成了壓力。<strong>標準普爾 500 指數</strong> 在 2026 年迄今幾乎持平，僅上漲 0.7%，突顯出指數級表現仍然高度依賴少數幾家巨型公司的影響。</p>
</div><p>The Magnificent Seven still account for more than 35% of the S&amp;P 500's total weighting. That dependence becomes even clearer when the concentration effect is removed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七大巨頭仍佔標準普爾 500 指數總權重的 35% 以上。當去除集中效應時，這種依賴性變得更加明顯。</p>
</div><p>Notably, an investor holding an equal-weighted version of the S&amp;P 500 — such as the <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong> (NYSE: RSP) — would be up 3.3% year-to-date, outperforming the market-cap-weighted index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，持有等權重標準普爾 500 指數的投資者——例如 <strong>Invesco S&amp;P 500 Equal Weight ETF</strong> (NYSE: RSP)——年初至今上漲了 3.3%，表現優於市值加權指數。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png" alt="" original-src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/14153534/image-219-1024x543.png"/></p>
<h2>Investors Rotate Away From Tech And Into Value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>投資者從科技股轉向價值股</h2>
</div><p>“The Nasdaq 100 took a knock at the end of last year as investors cut their exposure to growthy tech names, while reinvesting the proceeds in overlooked value plays,” said <strong>David Morrison</strong>, analyst at Trade Nation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“納斯達克 100 在去年年底遭遇重創，因為投資者減少了對成長型科技股的投資，同時將收益再投資於被忽視的價值股，”<strong>David Morrison</strong>，Trade Nation 的分析師表示。</p>
</div><p>“This has broadened out equity exposure and is a healthy development for the market,” he added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這擴大了股票的投資範圍，對市場來説是一個健康的發展，” 他補充道。</p>
</div><p>The shift shows up clearly across style factors, as value stocks have effectively led growth in recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一轉變在風格因子中表現得非常明顯，價值股在最近幾個月有效地領先於成長股。</p>
</div><p>The <strong>Vanguard Value ETF</strong> (NYSE: VTV) has risen by 7% since mid-october, outperforming the <strong>Vanguard Growth ETF</strong> (NYSE: VUG) by 5 percentage points.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>Vanguard Value ETF</strong> (NYSE: VTV) 自去年十月中旬以來上漲了 7%，超越了 <strong>Vanguard Growth ETF</strong> (NYSE: VUG) 5 個百分點。</p>
</div><h2>Is This Just A Pause For Mega-Cap Tech?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>這只是巨型科技股的暫時停頓嗎？</h2>
</div><p>Some analysts see the recent pullback as a breather rather than a breakdown, especially with fourth-quarter earnings approaching.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析師認為，近期的回調更像是喘息，而不是崩潰，尤其是在第四季度財報即將公佈之際。</p>
</div><p>According to <strong>Jeff Buchbinder,</strong> chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, artificial intelligence remains the dominant force behind earnings growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 <strong>Jeff Buchbinder</strong>，LPL Financial 的首席股票策略師，人工智能仍然是推動盈利增長的主導力量。</p>
</div><p>AI-related names, including the Magnificent Seven, are expected to drive roughly 80% of the S&amp;P 500's projected 8% earnings growth in the fourth quarter, based on current estimates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與人工智能相關的公司，包括七大巨頭，預計將在第四季度推動標準普爾 500 指數約 80% 的預期 8% 盈利增長，基於當前的估計。</p>
</div><p>The technology sector alone is forecast to grow earnings by more than 25%, with final results potentially pushing growth above 30%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>僅科技行業的盈利預計將增長超過 25%，最終結果可能將增長推高至 30% 以上。</p>
</div><p>“Slicing this another way, the biggest six technology companies, i.e., the Mag Seven excluding Tesla (TSLA), are expected to drive over 60% of S&amp;P 500 earnings growth for the quarter by growing earnings an average of 19%,” Buchbinder said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“換個角度來看，最大的六家科技公司，即七大巨頭中不包括特斯拉（TSLA），預計將在本季度推動超過 60% 的標準普爾 500 盈利增長，平均增長 19%，” Buchbinder 表示。</p>
</div><p>That pace would more than double what the remaining 493 companies in the index are likely to deliver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一增速將是指數中剩餘 493 家公司可能交付的增速的兩倍多。</p>
</div><h2>What Comes Next For The Bull Market?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>牛市的下一步是什麼？</h2>
</div><p>Earnings growth beyond mega-cap tech has quietly improved. The remaining S&amp;P 493 grew profits 11.8% in the third quarter of 2025 and could post double-digit growth again, according to LPL Financial.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巨型科技股之外的盈利增長悄然改善。根據 LPL Financial 的數據，剩餘的標準普爾 493 家公司在 2025 年第三季度的利潤增長了 11.8%，並可能再次實現兩位數的增長。</p>
</div><p>That gap still explains why the firm favors large growth stocks over large value, even as leadership starts to shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這一差距仍然解釋了為什麼該公司更青睞大型成長股而非大型價值股，即使領導地位開始轉變。</p>
</div><p>A true turning point depends on Washington. Cyclical value stocks can keep gaining ground only if fiscal policy adds fuel while technology cools, according to Buchbinder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>真正的轉折點取決於華盛頓。週期性價值股只有在財政政策提供支持的情況下才能繼續獲得增長，而科技股則需要降温，Buchbinder 表示。</p>
</div><p>He expects that additional stimulus tied to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act may extend that rotation, with industrial stocks emerging as a standout theme for the year ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他預計，與 “一項美麗的法案” 相關的額外刺激措施可能會延續這一輪換，工業股將成為未來一年的突出主題。</p>
</div><p>For now, the Magnificent Seven are no longer carrying the market alone. Wall Street is getting a first look at a rally that does not depend on tech giants leading every step.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，七大巨頭不再單獨支撐市場。華爾街首次看到一個不依賴科技巨頭每一步都在引領的反彈。</p>
</div><p><em>Image: Shutterstock</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Shutterstock</em></p>
</div>

為什麼壯麗七巨頭在 2026 年初對市場的掌控力減弱了？