<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>儘管政府關門早已結束，但最近的政府住房更新僅為十月份的數據，即已經滯後兩個月。因此，美國全國房地產經紀人協會（NAR）的現有住宅銷售報告暫時成為我們觀察住房銷售、價格和庫存的最佳窗口。</p>
<p>根據我今年的背景，自 2022 年美聯儲開始加息以來，抵押貸款利率也迅速從 3% 上升到 6%-7% 的範圍，並一直保持在該範圍內。由於銷售跟隨抵押貸款利率，現有住宅銷售迅速下降至 400 萬年化單位，並在過去 3.5 年中一直保持在該範圍內，通常波動在 +/-20 萬之間。自九月份以來，抵押貸款利率處於 3 年多來的低點，而在十二月份，現有住宅銷售如預期般反應，突破該範圍，年化銷售達到 435 萬單位，為 2023 年 3 月以來的最高水平：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp"/></p>
<p>在過去的幾年裏，我一直在關注新房和二手房市場的重新平衡。現有住宅庫存已經從市場上消失超過 10 年（這可能部分是由於缺席的租賃業主購買了越來越多的庫存），並在疫情期間加速。這導致了待售房屋的急劇短缺，進而引發了買家之間的競價戰和價格飆升。</p>
<p>市場的重新平衡，最重要的是，需要將庫存增加到至少達到疫情前的水平，並減緩價格上漲，甚至出現明顯下降。這意味着銷售水平本身遠不如現有住宅的中位價格和庫存對我們關於住房市場持續重新平衡的指示重要。</p>
<p>庫存的長期下降在 2022 年達到了最低點。該系列數據未經過季節性調整，因此必須按年同比進行觀察。在十二月份，庫存急劇下降，正如每年一樣，降至 118 萬，超過了自 2019 年以來每個十二月的水平，當時庫存為 139 萬：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp"/></p>
<p>由於疫情前庫存通常在 170 萬到 190 萬之間，慢性短缺仍然存在，儘管這種情況正在非常緩慢地緩解。</p>
<p>為了使庫存完全調整，價格也必須調整。如下面的圖表所示，現有住宅的中位價格在 2019 年 7 月至 2022 年 7 月之間上漲了約 45%，並在今年 7 月之前又上漲了 5%，然後季節性下降：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp"/></p>
<p>在未進行季節性調整的情況下，我的經驗法則是，當同比百分比變化低於過去 12 個月最大變化的一半時，就會出現峯值（或谷底）。以下是過去 12 個月的比較：</p>
<p>十二月 6.0%</p>
<p>一月 4.8%</p>
<p>二月 3.6%</p>
<p>三月 2.7%</p>
<p>四月 1.8%</p>
<p>五月 1.3%</p>
<p>六月 2.0%</p>
<p>七月 0.2%</p>
<p>八月 2.2%</p>
<p>九月 2.1%</p>
<p>十月 2.1%</p>
<p>十一月 1.2%</p>
<p>十二月 1.4%</p>
<p>儘管自七月以來的同比價格比較有所上升，但仍遠低於過去 12 個月的峯值 6.0%，因此可以得出合理的結論，如果我們能夠進行季節性調整，房價比去年春天要軟。</p>
<p>我關於現有住宅銷售的最後報告得出結論：“新房與現有房市場的重新平衡是一個漫長而緩慢的過程。昨天的現有住宅銷售報告是朝着這一重新平衡非常緩慢進展的又一個數據點。” 十二月份的報告為銷售的 “綠 shoots” 理論提供了證據，此外還有我們本週早些時候獲得的住房建設和新房銷售數據。但重新平衡仍然是一個漫長的過程，疫情期間的低庫存幾乎完全逆轉，但仍遠低於 2016-2018 年的水平。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>十一月零售銷售大幅上升，但同比實際銷售疲軟預示着進一步的麻煩</p>
<p>十二月就業報告：對即將到來的衰退敲響警鐘，但有一些警告</p>
<p>十一月 JOLTS 報告與勞動市場的疲軟趨勢一致，但呈現橫盤而非負向趨勢</p>

Forestar集團

<p>12 月份現有住宅銷售年化增至 435 萬套，為 2023 年 3 月以來的最高水平，顯示出房地產市場可能正在重新平衡。儘管庫存短缺問題長期存在，並在 2022 年達到峯值，但市場正在緩慢調整。中位房價出現軟化跡象，年同比價格變動仍低於之前的峯值。該報告支持銷售的 “綠 shoots” 論點，儘管整體的重新平衡過程仍然緩慢且具有挑戰性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1NWHd4TWpBM2ZEQjhNSHh3YUc5MGJ5MXdZV2RsZkh4OGZHVnVmREI4Zkh3PSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1489370321024-e0410ad08da4?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=MXwxMjA3fDB8MHxwaG90by1wYWdlfHx8fGVufDB8fHw%3D&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>Although the government shutdown is long over, the most recent government housing updates have been for October, I.e., two months stale. Thus, the NAR’s existing home sales report has temporarily become among our best look at housing sales, prices, and inventorythe housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管政府關門早已結束，但最近的政府住房更新僅為十月份的數據，即已經滯後兩個月。因此，美國全國房地產經紀人協會（NAR）的現有住宅銷售報告暫時成為我們觀察住房銷售、價格和庫存的最佳窗口。</p>
</div><p>As per my context all this year, after the Fed began hiking rates in 2022, mortgage rates also rapidly rose from 3% to the 6%-7% range, where they have remained ever since. Since sales follow mortgage interest rates, existing home sales rapidly declined to 4.0 million annualized, and have remained in that range, generally +/-0.20 million for the past 3.5+ years. Since September, mortgage rates have been at the bottom of their 3+ year range, and in December existing home sales predictably reacted, breaking out of that range to the upside, at 4.35 million units annualized, the highest number since March 2023:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據我今年的背景，自 2022 年美聯儲開始加息以來，抵押貸款利率也迅速從 3% 上升到 6%-7% 的範圍，並一直保持在該範圍內。由於銷售跟隨抵押貸款利率，現有住宅銷售迅速下降至 400 萬年化單位，並在過去 3.5 年中一直保持在該範圍內，通常波動在 +/-20 萬之間。自九月份以來，抵押貸款利率處於 3 年多來的低點，而在十二月份，現有住宅銷售如預期般反應，突破該範圍，年化銷售達到 435 萬單位，為 2023 年 3 月以來的最高水平：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales.webp"/></p>
<p>In the past several years, I have been looking for the new and existing home markets to rebalance. Existing home inventory has been removed from the market for over 10 years (likely due in part to absentee rental owners buying increasing chunks of inventory), and really accelerated during the pandemic. This caused an acute shortage of houses for sale, which in turn led to bidding wars among buyers and a spike in prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去的幾年裏，我一直在關注新房和二手房市場的重新平衡。現有住宅庫存已經從市場上消失超過 10 年（這可能部分是由於缺席的租賃業主購買了越來越多的庫存），並在疫情期間加速。這導致了待售房屋的急劇短缺，進而引發了買家之間的競價戰和價格飆升。</p>
</div><p>A rebalancing of the market, more than anything, would require an increase in inventory at least to pre-COVID levels, and a deceleration of price increases, or even outright decreases. Which means that the level of sales themselves was far less important than what the median price for an existing home and inventory are telling us about the ongoing rebalancing of the housing market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場的重新平衡，最重要的是，需要將庫存增加到至少達到疫情前的水平，並減緩價格上漲，甚至出現明顯下降。這意味着銷售水平本身遠不如現有住宅的中位價格和庫存對我們關於住房市場持續重新平衡的指示重要。</p>
</div><p>The secular decline in inventory reached a nadir in 2022. This series is not seasonally adjusted, so it must be looked at YoY. In December, inventory declined sharply, as it does every year, to 1.18 million, exceeding every December level since 2019, when its level was 1.39 million:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>庫存的長期下降在 2022 年達到了最低點。該系列數據未經過季節性調整，因此必須按年同比進行觀察。在十二月份，庫存急劇下降，正如每年一樣，降至 118 萬，超過了自 2019 年以來每個十二月的水平，當時庫存為 139 萬：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_total_housing_inventory.webp"/></p>
<p>Since inventory was typically in the 1.7 million to 1.9 million range before the pandemic, the chronic shortage still exists, although it is very slowly abating.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由於疫情前庫存通常在 170 萬到 190 萬之間，慢性短缺仍然存在，儘管這種情況正在非常緩慢地緩解。</p>
</div><p>For inventory to fully adjust, so must prices. As shown in the graph below, the median price of an existing home rose about 45% between July 2019 and July 2022 and another 5% from there through July of this year, before seasonally declining:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>為了使庫存完全調整，價格也必須調整。如下面的圖表所示，現有住宅的中位價格在 2019 年 7 月至 2022 年 7 月之間上漲了約 45%，並在今年 7 月之前又上漲了 5%，然後季節性下降：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp" alt="" original-src="https://talkmarkets.com/contributor/oliver-mani/user_content/ckimages/orig_united_states_existing_home_sales_prices.webp"/></p>
<p>With seasonal adjustments are not made, my rule of thumb is that a peak (or trough) occurs when the YoY% change is less than half of its maximum change in the past 12 months. Here are the comparisons in the past 12 months:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在未進行季節性調整的情況下，我的經驗法則是，當同比百分比變化低於過去 12 個月最大變化的一半時，就會出現峯值（或谷底）。以下是過去 12 個月的比較：</p>
</div><p>December 6.0%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月 6.0%</p>
</div><p>January 4.8%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一月 4.8%</p>
</div><p>February 3.6%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>二月 3.6%</p>
</div><p>March 2.7%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三月 2.7%</p>
</div><p>April 1.8%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>四月 1.8%</p>
</div><p>May 1.3%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>五月 1.3%</p>
</div><p>June 2.0%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>六月 2.0%</p>
</div><p>July 0.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>七月 0.2%</p>
</div><p>August 2.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>八月 2.2%</p>
</div><p>September 2.1%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>九月 2.1%</p>
</div><p>October 2.1%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十月 2.1%</p>
</div><p>November 1.2%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月 1.2%</p>
</div><p>December 1.4%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月 1.4%</p>
</div><p>While YoY price comparisons have crept up since July, they remain well below their past 12 month peak of 6.0%, so the fair conclusion remains that, if we could seasonally adjust, house prices are softer than they were last spring.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管自七月以來的同比價格比較有所上升，但仍遠低於過去 12 個月的峯值 6.0%，因此可以得出合理的結論，如果我們能夠進行季節性調整，房價比去年春天要軟。</p>
</div><p>My last report on existing home sales concluded that “the rebalancing of the [new vs. existing housing] market is a long, slow slog. Yesterday’s existing home sales report is another data point of very slow progress towards that rebalancing.” The December report adds evidence to the “green shoots” thesis for sales on top of the housing construction and new home sales data we got earlier this week. But the rebalancing remains a long slog, with the pandemic-era low inventory almost totally reversed, yet far below the 2016-18 levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我關於現有住宅銷售的最後報告得出結論：“新房與現有房市場的重新平衡是一個漫長而緩慢的過程。昨天的現有住宅銷售報告是朝着這一重新平衡非常緩慢進展的又一個數據點。” 十二月份的報告為銷售的 “綠 shoots” 理論提供了證據，此外還有我們本週早些時候獲得的住房建設和新房銷售數據。但重新平衡仍然是一個漫長的過程，疫情期間的低庫存幾乎完全逆轉，但仍遠低於 2016-2018 年的水平。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Monthly Retail Sales Sharply Higher In November, But Flagging YoY Real Sales Spell Further Trouble</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月零售銷售大幅上升，但同比實際銷售疲軟預示着進一步的麻煩</p>
</div><p>December Jobs Report: Ringing The Alarm Bells For Imminent Recession, With Caveats</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十二月就業報告：對即將到來的衰退敲響警鐘，但有一些警告</p>
</div><p>November JOLTS Report Consistent With A Weak, But Sideways Rather Than Negative, Trend In The Labor Market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>十一月 JOLTS 報告與勞動市場的疲軟趨勢一致，但呈現橫盤而非負向趨勢</p>
</div>

12 月現房銷售為銷售市場的 “綠芽” 論點提供了更多證據