<p>摘要：</p>
<ul>
<li>韓國銀行維持基準利率在 2.5%，符合預期</li>
<li>出口前景樂觀；半導體是關鍵增長動力</li>
<li>銀行指出 2026 年增長前景的上行風險</li>
<li>聲明中刪除了 “降息空間” 的鴿派措辭</li>
<li>警告首爾住房風險和外匯波動加劇；指出韓元疲軟的驅動因素</li>
</ul>
<p>韓國銀行將基準利率維持在 2.5% 不變，符合市場預期，同時在政策溝通中傳達出略微堅定的立場。在維持利率不變的同時，中央銀行強調出口應保持樂觀，並表示政策委員會將繼續在支持經濟增長復甦的同時做出決策。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，韓國銀行指出今年增長預測的上行風險，強調強勁的半導體行業是經濟活動的關鍵推動力。對半導體的重視凸顯了韓國科技週期在塑造宏觀前景中的核心作用，特別是在全球對先進計算和存儲產品的需求仍然是出口和企業投資的關鍵影響因素時。</p>
<p>聲明中語氣也發生了顯著變化：韓國銀行刪除了明確提到留有降息空間的措辭，並且也去掉了關於 “是否以及何時” 實施進一步基準利率降息的表述。雖然銀行並未明顯轉向鷹派，但去除寬鬆偏向的措辭表明政策制定者對近期再次降息的信心降低，並在增長前景改善的情況下優先考慮靈活性。</p>
<p>金融穩定和貨幣風險仍然是信息的核心。韓國銀行表示將密切關注國內外政策條件的變化，並強調需要對住房價格風險和外匯波動保持謹慎。它特別指出，韓元近期因日元疲軟、地緣政治風險加劇以及居民持續的海外投資而貶值，同時警告與匯率波動相關的風險仍然較高。</p>
<p>關於通脹，銀行表示價格壓力預計將逐漸下降至 2%，強化了通縮正在進行但尚未結束的觀點。整體來看，穩定的利率、略微樂觀的增長前景以及降低的寬鬆信號，表明了一種 “觀望持有” 的立場：支持復甦，警惕市場波動，並對重新點燃住房風險保持謹慎，尤其是在首爾及周邊地區。</p>

半導體 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>韓國銀行維持基準利率在 2.5%，符合市場預期，同時發出了更為堅定的政策信號。中央銀行強調了有利的出口條件，特別是在半導體行業，並指出 2026 年增長前景的上行風險。值得注意的是，它刪除了關於潛在降息的鴿派措辭，表明對近期降息的信心減弱。韓國銀行對金融穩定、住房風險和貨幣波動保持謹慎，特別是針對韓元近期的疲軟。預計通脹將逐漸下降至 2%</p>

<p>Summary:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>摘要：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>BOK holds base rate at 2.5%, in line with forecasts</li>
<li>Exports seen staying favourable; semiconductors a key growth tailwind</li>
<li>Bank flags upside risks to 2026 growth outlook</li>
<li>Dovish “room for rate cuts” language removed from statement</li>
<li>Warns on Seoul housing risks and heightened FX volatility; notes won weakness drivers</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>韓國銀行維持基準利率在 2.5%，符合預期</li>
<li>出口前景樂觀；半導體是關鍵增長動力</li>
<li>銀行指出 2026 年增長前景的上行風險</li>
<li>聲明中刪除了 “降息空間” 的鴿派措辭</li>
<li>警告首爾住房風險和外匯波動加劇；指出韓元疲軟的驅動因素</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The Bank of Korea kept its base rate unchanged at 2.5%, matching market expectations, while signalling a slightly firmer stance in its policy communication. Alongside the hold, the central bank highlighted that exports should remain favourable and said the policy board will continue to make decisions while supporting a recovery in economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>韓國銀行將基準利率維持在 2.5% 不變，符合市場預期，同時在政策溝通中傳達出略微堅定的立場。在維持利率不變的同時，中央銀行強調出口應保持樂觀，並表示政策委員會將繼續在支持經濟增長復甦的同時做出決策。</p>
</div><p>Notably, the Bank of Korea flagged upside risks to this year’s growth forecast, pointing to a strong semiconductor sector as a key tailwind for activity. The emphasis on semiconductors underscores the central role of Korea’s tech cycle in shaping the macro outlook, particularly as global demand for advanced computing and memory products remains a key swing factor for exports and corporate investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，韓國銀行指出今年增長預測的上行風險，強調強勁的半導體行業是經濟活動的關鍵推動力。對半導體的重視凸顯了韓國科技週期在塑造宏觀前景中的核心作用，特別是在全球對先進計算和存儲產品的需求仍然是出口和企業投資的關鍵影響因素時。</p>
</div><p>The statement also showed a meaningful shift in tone: the BOK dropped language that had explicitly referenced leaving room for rate cuts, and also removed phrasing about deciding “whether and when” to implement further base-rate cuts. While the bank did not turn overtly hawkish, the removal of easing bias language suggests policymakers are less confident they will need to cut again soon, and are prioritising flexibility as growth prospects improve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聲明中語氣也發生了顯著變化：韓國銀行刪除了明確提到留有降息空間的措辭，並且也去掉了關於 “是否以及何時” 實施進一步基準利率降息的表述。雖然銀行並未明顯轉向鷹派，但去除寬鬆偏向的措辭表明政策制定者對近期再次降息的信心降低，並在增長前景改善的情況下優先考慮靈活性。</p>
</div><p>Financial stability and currency risks remained central to the message. The BOK said it would closely monitor changes in domestic and external policy conditions, and stressed the need to remain cautious about housing-price risks and FX volatility. It specifically noted the won had weakened recently due to yen weakness, heightened geopolitical risks, and continued overseas investment by residents, while warning that risks tied to exchange-rate volatility remain elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>金融穩定和貨幣風險仍然是信息的核心。韓國銀行表示將密切關注國內外政策條件的變化，並強調需要對住房價格風險和外匯波動保持謹慎。它特別指出，韓元近期因日元疲軟、地緣政治風險加劇以及居民持續的海外投資而貶值，同時警告與匯率波動相關的風險仍然較高。</p>
</div><p>On inflation, the bank said price pressures are expected to gradually decline toward 2%, reinforcing a view that disinflation is progressing but not yet finished. The overall mix, steady rates, a slightly firmer growth outlook, and a toned-down easing signal, reads as a “hold and watch” stance: supportive of recovery, alert to market volatility, and wary of reigniting housing risks, especially in Seoul and surrounding areas.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於通脹，銀行表示價格壓力預計將逐漸下降至 2%，強化了通縮正在進行但尚未結束的觀點。整體來看，穩定的利率、略微樂觀的增長前景以及降低的寬鬆信號，表明了一種 “觀望持有” 的立場：支持復甦，警惕市場波動，並對重新點燃住房風險保持謹慎，尤其是在首爾及周邊地區。</p>
</div>

Bank of Korea holds at 2.5% and drops easing-bias language as growth risks tilt up

- 韓國銀行維持基準利率在 2.5%，符合市場預期。  
- 半導體行業被視為經濟增長的關鍵動力。  
- 銀行警告住房風險和外匯波動加劇，強調韓元疲軟。

韓國銀行維持利率在 2.5%，並取消了寬鬆傾向的措辭，因為增長風險有所增加