<p>槓桿正在悄然重新成為比特幣（[BTC]）動能的主要驅動力。最近的突破引發了一場激烈的空頭擠壓，迫使交易者大規模平倉空頭頭寸。</p>
<p>根據 Glassnode 的數據，這是自 2025 年 10 月 10 日以來，前 500 種加密貨幣中最大的空頭清算事件。</p>
<p>在圖表上，清算峯值與比特幣的局部高點緊密對齊。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：Glassnode</p>
<p>交易者在短時間內清除了數百萬的空頭敞口，強制回補推動價格上漲，增強了上漲壓力。</p>
<p>這種行為自 2025 年底以來一直在積累，但隨着比特幣保持在高位而不是回調，強度加速。</p>
<p>如果當前的清算持續，比特幣可能僅憑動能延伸至$100,000-$105,000 區間。</p>
<p>然而，如果融資降温且未平倉合約重置，價格可能會整合。過去的擠壓顯示，持續性依賴於現貨需求取代槓桿。</p>
<h2><strong>OG 供應回撤信號…</strong></h2>
<p>OG 比特幣持有者不再以本週期早期的速度進行分發。</p>
<p>來自超過五年未動用的幣的 STXO 數據表明，長期持有者的支出明顯放緩。</p>
<p>CryptoQuant 的數據確認，OG 在 2024 年期間非常活躍，利用機構需求和政府購買作為理想的退出流動性。</p>
<p>然而，這種行為已經發生了變化。在週期早期，OG 支出在接近 3,800 BTC 時達到峯值，隨後降至 3,200 BTC，再到 2,200 BTC。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>短期內，OG 的輕微賣出減少了上方供應，支持價格穩定。相反，從長期來看，這種行為則表明了信心。</p>
<p>歷史上，OG 的剋制與積累階段相一致，而不是晚週期的分發。</p>
<h2><strong>鯨魚對沖，散户入場：誰先崩潰？</strong></h2>
<p>圖表突顯出明顯的分歧。鯨魚首先平掉他們的多頭敞口，然後轉向空頭，表明了一種有意的轉變。</p>
<p>與此同時，儘管動能減弱，價格仍然保持在高位。與此同時，槓桿正在悄然重建。</p>
<p>綜合來看，這些因素將風險傾向於下行。鯨魚早早反應，因為他們看到擁擠的頭寸和晚週期行為。</p>
<p>此外，OG 比特幣持有者不再積極分發。這隔離了有機賣壓，使槓桿成為主要驅動因素。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>來源：X</p>
<p>散户交易者往往朝相反方向移動。他們追逐上漲動能，反應價格而非結構。隨着波動性擴大，他們傾向於增加多頭頭寸。</p>
<p>與此同時，來自 Alphractal 的鏈上數據表明，鯨魚在比特幣接近$69,000 時平掉多頭並轉向空頭。散户交易者則相反，湧入槓桿多頭。</p>
<p>不久之後，比特幣修正了近 20%，從$69,000 跌至$56,000，然後穩定下來。</p>
<p>這種設置指向潛在的震盪或降温階段。如果槓桿解除，價格可能會回調，然後才能發生任何可持續的延續。</p>
<p>總的來説，比特幣的結構很清晰，因為動能是由槓桿驅動，而不是現貨需求。</p>
<p>空頭清算推高了價格，而 OG 的賣出放緩，鯨魚則變得防禦性。這收緊了供應，但提高了脆弱性。</p>
<p>因此，上行仍然脆弱。可持續的收益需要現貨需求取代槓桿。在此之前，波動風險保持高位，任何進一步的延伸都面臨修正重置的風險。</p>
<hr/>
<h2>最終思考</h2>
<ul>
<li><em>槓桿現在驅動比特幣的動能，空頭清算推高價格，而現貨需求仍然是次要的，增加了波動性驅動回調的風險。</em></li>
<li><em>聰明資金開始謹慎，鯨魚對沖，OG 持有者減緩賣出，信號顯示供應收緊，但除非現貨買家介入，否則反彈脆弱。</em></li>
</ul>

GBTC

<p>比特幣最近的價格動能主要是由槓桿驅動，而非需求，這一點通過一次顯著的空頭擠壓得以體現，迫使交易者平倉看跌頭寸。儘管這將比特幣推向了 10 萬美元的關口，但這一漲勢的可持續性取決於現貨需求是否能夠取代槓桿需求。早期比特幣持有者正在減少拋售，表明可能進入積累階段，但大户正在對沖，顯示出謹慎態度。目前的市場結構脆弱，波動風險較高，除非現貨買家出現以支撐價格</p>

<p>Leverage is quietly reasserting itself as the main driver of Bitcoin’s [BTC] momentum. The recent breakout triggered an aggressive short squeeze, forcing traders to unwind bearish positions at scale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>槓桿正在悄然重新成為比特幣（[BTC]）動能的主要驅動力。最近的突破引發了一場激烈的空頭擠壓，迫使交易者大規模平倉空頭頭寸。</p>
</div><p>According to Glassnode, this was the largest short-liquidation event across the top 500 cryptocurrencies since the 10th of October 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據 Glassnode 的數據，這是自 2025 年 10 月 10 日以來，前 500 種加密貨幣中最大的空頭清算事件。</p>
</div><p>On the chart, liquidation spikes align tightly with Bitcoin’s push to local highs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在圖表上，清算峯值與比特幣的局部高點緊密對齊。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oXgAzWQAAEUQ7-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: Glassnode</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Glassnode</p>
</div><p>Traders wiped out millions in short exposure within a short time window, and forced buybacks chased the price higher, reinforcing upside pressure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易者在短時間內清除了數百萬的空頭敞口，強制回補推動價格上漲，增強了上漲壓力。</p>
</div><p>This behavior has been building since late 2025, but the intensity accelerated as Bitcoin held elevated levels instead of retracing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種行為自 2025 年底以來一直在積累，但隨着比特幣保持在高位而不是回調，強度加速。</p>
</div><p>If current liquidations persist, Bitcoin could extend toward the $100,000-$105,000 zone on momentum alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果當前的清算持續，比特幣可能僅憑動能延伸至$100,000-$105,000 區間。</p>
</div><p>However, if funding cools and open interest resets, the price may consolidate. Past squeezes show sustainability depends on spot demand replacing leverage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，如果融資降温且未平倉合約重置，價格可能會整合。過去的擠壓顯示，持續性依賴於現貨需求取代槓桿。</p>
</div><h2><strong>OG supply pullback signals…</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>OG 供應回撤信號…</strong></h2>
</div><p>OG Bitcoin Holders are no longer distributing at the pace seen earlier in this cycle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>OG 比特幣持有者不再以本週期早期的速度進行分發。</p>
</div><p>STXO data from coins dormant for over five years shows a clear slowdown in long-term holder spending.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來自超過五年未動用的幣的 STXO 數據表明，長期持有者的支出明顯放緩。</p>
</div><p>Data from CryptoQuant confirms that OGs were highly active into 2024, using institutional demand and government buying as ideal exit liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CryptoQuant 的數據確認，OG 在 2024 年期間非常活躍，利用機構需求和政府購買作為理想的退出流動性。</p>
</div><p>However, that behavior has shifted. Earlier in the cycle, OG spending peaked near 3,800 BTC, then cooled to 3,200 BTC, followed by 2,200 BTC.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，這種行為已經發生了變化。在週期早期，OG 支出在接近 3,800 BTC 時達到峯值，隨後降至 3,200 BTC，再到 2,200 BTC。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-nW9RIWMAA69D9.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>In the short term, lighter OG selling reduces overhead supply and supports price stability. On the contrary, in the long term, this behavior signals conviction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>短期內，OG 的輕微賣出減少了上方供應，支持價格穩定。相反，從長期來看，這種行為則表明了信心。</p>
</div><p>Historically, OG restraint aligns with accumulation phases rather than late-cycle distribution.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>歷史上，OG 的剋制與積累階段相一致，而不是晚週期的分發。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Whales hedge as retail commits: Who breaks first?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>鯨魚對沖，散户入場：誰先崩潰？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The chart highlights a clear divergence. Whales first unwind their long exposure and then rotate into shorts, suggesting a deliberate shift.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>圖表突顯出明顯的分歧。鯨魚首先平掉他們的多頭敞口，然後轉向空頭，表明了一種有意的轉變。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, price remains elevated even as momentum fades. At the same time, leverage is quietly rebuilding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，儘管動能減弱，價格仍然保持在高位。與此同時，槓桿正在悄然重建。</p>
</div><p>Taken together, these factors tilt risk to the downside. Whales react early because they see crowded positioning and late-cycle behavior.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>綜合來看，這些因素將風險傾向於下行。鯨魚早早反應，因為他們看到擁擠的頭寸和晚週期行為。</p>
</div><p>Moreover, OG Bitcoin holders are no longer distributing aggressively. That isolates organic selling pressure and leaves leverage as the main driver.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，OG 比特幣持有者不再積極分發。這隔離了有機賣壓，使槓桿成為主要驅動因素。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/G-oU0JuboAA4pFi-1-scaled.jpeg"/></p>
<p>Source: X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：X</p>
</div><p>Retail traders often move in the opposite direction. They chase upside momentum, reacting to price rather than structure. As volatility expands, they tend to add long positions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>散户交易者往往朝相反方向移動。他們追逐上漲動能，反應價格而非結構。隨着波動性擴大，他們傾向於增加多頭頭寸。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, on‑chain data from Alphractal showed whales closing longs and flipping short as Bitcoin neared $69,000. Retail traders did the opposite, piling into leveraged longs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，來自 Alphractal 的鏈上數據表明，鯨魚在比特幣接近$69,000 時平掉多頭並轉向空頭。散户交易者則相反，湧入槓桿多頭。</p>
</div><p>Shortly after, Bitcoin corrected nearly 20%, dropping from $69,000 to $56,000 before stabilizing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不久之後，比特幣修正了近 20%，從$69,000 跌至$56,000，然後穩定下來。</p>
</div><p>This setup points to a potential shakeout or cooling phase. If leverage unwinds, the price will likely retrace before any sustainable continuation can occur.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種設置指向潛在的震盪或降温階段。如果槓桿解除，價格可能會回調，然後才能發生任何可持續的延續。</p>
</div><p>All in all, Bitcoin’s structure is clear as leverage, not spot demand, is driving momentum.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總的來説，比特幣的結構很清晰，因為動能是由槓桿驅動，而不是現貨需求。</p>
</div><p>Short liquidations lifted the price, while OG selling slowed and whales turned defensive. This tightens supply but raises fragility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>空頭清算推高了價格，而 OG 的賣出放緩，鯨魚則變得防禦性。這收緊了供應，但提高了脆弱性。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, upside remains vulnerable. Sustainable gains require spot demand to replace leverage. Until then, volatility risk stays elevated, and any further extension remains exposed to a corrective reset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，上行仍然脆弱。可持續的收益需要現貨需求取代槓桿。在此之前，波動風險保持高位，任何進一步的延伸都面臨修正重置的風險。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2>Final Thoughts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最終思考</h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>Leverage now drives Bitcoin’s momentum, with short liquidations lifting price while spot demand remains secondary, increasing the risk of volatility-driven pullbacks.</em></li>
<li><em>Smart money is turning cautious, as whales hedge and OG holders slow selling, signaling tighter supply but a fragile rally unless spot buyers step in.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>槓桿現在驅動比特幣的動能，空頭清算推高價格，而現貨需求仍然是次要的，增加了波動性驅動回調的風險。</em></li>
<li><em>聰明資金開始謹慎，鯨魚對沖，OG 持有者減緩賣出，信號顯示供應收緊，但除非現貨買家介入，否則反彈脆弱。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

比特幣：BTC 達到 10 萬美元的道路可能依賴於槓桿而非需求的原因