<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home%20Depot_Cumberland.jpg/query-aXRvaz1hbGNJa2p4Rg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home%20Depot_Cumberland.jpg/query-aXRvaz1hbGNJa2p4Rg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：HomeDepot.com</em></p>
<p><strong>公司簡介</strong></p>
<p>家得寶（Home Depot，HD）是全球最大的家居改善零售商，運營着一個主導的倉儲式商店網絡，並支持一個高度集成的數字平台。該公司服務於 DIY 消費者和專業承包商（“專業人士”），利用在採購、物流、私有品牌和供應商關係方面無與倫比的規模。家得寶的規模、運營效率和品牌實力創造了持久的競爭優勢，而其嚴格的資本配置則通過分紅和回購支持持續的股東回報。儘管需求是週期性的，並與住房和裝修活動相關，但 HD 在經濟週期中產生強勁而穩定的自由現金流。</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>現金流折現分析</strong></p>
<p><strong>輸入</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>折現率：</strong> 10%</li>
<li><strong>終值增長率：</strong> 3%</li>
<li><strong>加權平均資本成本（WACC）：</strong> 10%</li>
</ul>
<hr/>
<p><strong>預測自由現金流</strong></p>
<p>2025 年：<strong>$14.5</strong> → 現值：<strong>$13.2</strong></p>
<p>2026 年：<strong>$15.0</strong> → 現值：<strong>$12.4</strong></p>
<p>2027 年：<strong>$15.5</strong> → 現值：<strong>$11.6</strong></p>
<p>2028 年：<strong>$16.0</strong> → 現值：<strong>$10.9</strong></p>
<p>2029 年：<strong>$16.5</strong> → 現值：<strong>$10.3</strong></p>
<p>自由現金流現值總和 = $58.4B</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>終值計算</strong></p>
<p><strong>終值計算</strong></p>
<p>使用永續增長模型，2029 年自由現金流 = <strong>$16.5B</strong>：</p>
<p>終值 = (16.5 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$242.8B</strong></p>
<p>終值的現值：</p>
<p>現值（終值）= 242.8 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$150.8B</strong></p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>企業價值</strong></p>
<p>企業價值 = $58.4B + $150.8B = $209.2B</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>淨債務</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>現金及現金等價物：</strong> 約 $1.7B</li>
<li><strong>總債務：</strong> 約 $65.4B</li>
</ul>
<p>淨債務 ≈ $63.7B</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>股權價值及每股價值</strong></p>
<ul>
<li><strong>股權價值：</strong> $209.2B − $63.7B = <strong>$145.5B</strong></li>
<li><strong>流通股數：</strong> 約 0.995B</li>
</ul>
<p>每股內在價值 ≈ $146</p>
<hr/>
<p><strong>結論</strong></p>
<ul>
<li>現金流折現價值：約 $146</li>
<li>當前價格：約 $375</li>
<li>安全邊際：–61%</li>
</ul>
<p>家得寶仍然是一家高質量、現金生成的零售特許經營，具有無與倫比的家居改善規模、強大的專業人士曝光率和一流的運營效率。其在住房週期中產生可觀自由現金流的能力支持持續的分紅和股票回購，增強了其作為長期複合增長者的吸引力。</p>
<p>然而，在使用 10% 的折現率和 3% 的終值增長的標準化現金流折現框架下，HD 當前的市場價格暗示的預期遠高於保守的內在價值。該估值假設住房活動的持續再加速、利潤率擴張或資本回報超過該模型中所包含的內容。</p>
<p>對於長期投資者而言，家得寶繼續代表一傢俱有持久業務、強大競爭優勢和嚴格資本配置的公司。然而，在今天的估值下，該股票提供的 <strong>安全邊際有限</strong>，這表明未來的回報可能更多地依賴於業務執行而非市盈率擴張。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
<p>Bill Nygren：上漲的東西必然會下跌！</p>
<p>深度價值生物防禦製藥公司 – SIGA Technologies Inc.</p>
<p>Domino’s Pizza Inc：我們對內在價值的計算</p>

家得寶

<p>家得寶公司被分析其內在價值，得出的折現現金流（DCF）價值約為每股 146 美元，而當前價格約為 375 美元，顯示出 61% 的安全邊際。該公司是家居改善零售的領導者，展現出強勁的現金流和競爭優勢。然而，高市場價格表明市場預期超過保守的內在價值，依賴於未來的住房活動和利潤擴張。長期投資者在當前估值下可能會發現安全性有限，強調業務執行而非多重擴張以獲取未來回報</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home Depot_Cumberland.jpg/query-aXRvaz1hbGNJa2p4Rg" alt="" original-src="https://corporate.homedepot.com/sites/default/files/styles/hero300x935/public/image_gallery/Company_Home%20Depot_Cumberland.jpg?itok=alcIkjxF"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: HomeDepot.com</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：HomeDepot.com</em></p>
</div><p><strong>Profile</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>公司簡介</strong></p>
</div><p>The Home Depot (HD) is the world’s largest home improvement retailer, operating a dominant network of warehouse-style stores supported by a highly integrated digital platform. The company serves both do-it-yourself (DIY) consumers and professional contractors (“Pros”), leveraging unmatched scale in sourcing, logistics, private-label brands, and supplier relationships. Home Depot’s size, operational efficiency, and brand strength create durable competitive advantages, while its disciplined capital allocation supports consistent shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. Although demand is cyclical and tied to housing and renovation activity, HD generates strong and resilient free cash flow across economic cycles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶（Home Depot，HD）是全球最大的家居改善零售商，運營着一個主導的倉儲式商店網絡，並支持一個高度集成的數字平台。該公司服務於 DIY 消費者和專業承包商（“專業人士”），利用在採購、物流、私有品牌和供應商關係方面無與倫比的規模。家得寶的規模、運營效率和品牌實力創造了持久的競爭優勢，而其嚴格的資本配置則通過分紅和回購支持持續的股東回報。儘管需求是週期性的，並與住房和裝修活動相關，但 HD 在經濟週期中產生強勁而穩定的自由現金流。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>DCF Analysis</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>現金流折現分析</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Inputs</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>輸入</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Discount Rate:</strong> 10%</li>
<li><strong>Terminal Growth Rate:</strong> 3%</li>
<li><strong>WACC:</strong> 10%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>折現率：</strong> 10%</li>
<li><strong>終值增長率：</strong> 3%</li>
<li><strong>加權平均資本成本（WACC）：</strong> 10%</li>
</ul>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Forecasted Free Cash Flows</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>預測自由現金流</strong></p>
</div><p>2025: <strong>$14.5</strong> → PV: <strong>$13.2</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年：<strong>$14.5</strong> → 現值：<strong>$13.2</strong></p>
</div><p>2026: <strong>$15.0</strong> → PV: <strong>$12.4</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年：<strong>$15.0</strong> → 現值：<strong>$12.4</strong></p>
</div><p>2027: <strong>$15.5</strong> → PV: <strong>$11.6</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2027 年：<strong>$15.5</strong> → 現值：<strong>$11.6</strong></p>
</div><p>2028: <strong>$16.0</strong> → PV: <strong>$10.9</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2028 年：<strong>$16.0</strong> → 現值：<strong>$10.9</strong></p>
</div><p>2029: <strong>$16.5</strong> → PV: <strong>$10.3</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2029 年：<strong>$16.5</strong> → 現值：<strong>$10.3</strong></p>
</div><p>Total Present Value of FCFs = $58.4B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自由現金流現值總和 = $58.4B</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Terminal Value Calculation</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>終值計算</strong></p>
</div><p><strong>Terminal Value Calculation</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>終值計算</strong></p>
</div><p>Using the perpetuity growth model with 2029 FCF = <strong>$16.5B</strong>:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用永續增長模型，2029 年自由現金流 = <strong>$16.5B</strong>：</p>
</div><p>TV = (16.5 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$242.8B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>終值 = (16.5 × 1.03) ÷ (0.10 − 0.03) = <strong>$242.8B</strong></p>
</div><p>Present Value of Terminal Value:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>終值的現值：</p>
</div><p>PV(TV) = 242.8 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$150.8B</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現值（終值）= 242.8 ÷ (1.10)^5 = <strong>$150.8B</strong></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Enterprise Value</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>企業價值</strong></p>
</div><p>Enterprise Value = $58.4B + $150.8B = $209.2B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企業價值 = $58.4B + $150.8B = $209.2B</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Net Debt</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>淨債務</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Cash &amp; Equivalents:</strong> ~$1.7B</li>
<li><strong>Total Debt:</strong> ~$65.4B</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>現金及現金等價物：</strong> 約 $1.7B</li>
<li><strong>總債務：</strong> 約 $65.4B</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Net Debt ≈ $63.7B</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>淨債務 ≈ $63.7B</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Equity Value &amp; Per-Share Value</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>股權價值及每股價值</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Equity Value:</strong> $209.2B − $63.7B = <strong>$145.5B</strong></li>
<li><strong>Shares Outstanding:</strong> ~0.995B</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>股權價值：</strong> $209.2B − $63.7B = <strong>$145.5B</strong></li>
<li><strong>流通股數：</strong> 約 0.995B</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Intrinsic Value per Share ≈ $146</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>每股內在價值 ≈ $146</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>結論</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>DCF Value: ~$146</li>
<li>Current Price: ~$375</li>
<li>Margin of Safety: –61%</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>現金流折現價值：約 $146</li>
<li>當前價格：約 $375</li>
<li>安全邊際：–61%</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Home Depot remains a high-quality, cash-generative retail franchise with unmatched scale in home improvement, strong Pro exposure, and best-in-class operating efficiency. Its ability to generate substantial free cash flow through housing cycles supports continued dividends and share repurchases, reinforcing its appeal as a long-term compounder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>家得寶仍然是一家高質量、現金生成的零售特許經營，具有無與倫比的家居改善規模、強大的專業人士曝光率和一流的運營效率。其在住房週期中產生可觀自由現金流的能力支持持續的分紅和股票回購，增強了其作為長期複合增長者的吸引力。</p>
</div><p>However, under a standardized DCF framework using a 10% discount rate and 3% terminal growth, HD’s current market price implies expectations well above conservative intrinsic value. The valuation assumes a sustained reacceleration in housing activity, margin expansion, or capital returns that exceed what is embedded in this model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在使用 10% 的折現率和 3% 的終值增長的標準化現金流折現框架下，HD 當前的市場價格暗示的預期遠高於保守的內在價值。該估值假設住房活動的持續再加速、利潤率擴張或資本回報超過該模型中所包含的內容。</p>
</div><p>For long-term investors, Home Depot continues to represent a durable business with strong competitive advantages and disciplined capital allocation. At today’s valuation, however, the stock offers <strong>limited margin of safety</strong>, suggesting that future returns are likely to be driven more by business execution than by multiple expansion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>對於長期投資者而言，家得寶繼續代表一傢俱有持久業務、強大競爭優勢和嚴格資本配置的公司。然而，在今天的估值下，該股票提供的 <strong>安全邊際有限</strong>，這表明未來的回報可能更多地依賴於業務執行而非市盈率擴張。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多作者作品：</em></p>
</div><p>Bill Nygren: What Goes Up Must Come Down!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bill Nygren：上漲的東西必然會下跌！</p>
</div><p>Deep Value Biodefense Pharmaceutical Company – SIGA Technologies Inc.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深度價值生物防禦製藥公司 – SIGA Technologies Inc.</p>
</div><p>Domino’s Pizza Inc: Our Calculation Of Intrinsic Value</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Domino’s Pizza Inc：我們對內在價值的計算</p>
</div>

家得寶公司：我們對其內在價值的計算