<p>今天，日元在主要貨幣中仍然是最為波動的，美元/日元在亞洲交易早期的下跌後保持了更大的波動區間。該貨幣對在日本財政部長片山的進一步口頭干預後觸及 157.97 的低點。隨後反彈至 158.30，目前仍遠低於早前 158.60-70 的高點。</p>
<p>東京官員的口頭干預在試圖遏制貨幣貶值方面並不是什麼新鮮事。然而，這次使用的語言有些不同。</p>
<p>片山本週早些時候就價格波動發表了一個異常具體的評論。而今天的言論甚至進一步表示，他們準備在市場上進行干預的意願是 “包含在美日協議中的一個選項”。換句話説，他是在向市場發出警告，東京已經得到了華盛頓的綠燈，可以在必要時介入。</p>
<p>儘管如此，自十月以來，_高市貿易_仍然是持續壓制日元的關鍵驅動因素。這一勢頭在大局上依然保持不變。但至少在今天，短期情緒有所轉變：</p>
<p>在本週多次嘗試突破 100 小時移動平均線（紅線）後，美元/日元的賣方今天終於突破了。這使得短期偏向變得更加中性，價格走勢在該線和 200 小時移動平均線（藍線）之間保持。</p>
<p>這給交易者留出了一些空間，以便他們考慮快閃選舉將如何影響_高市貿易_，以及日元的進一步貶值是否會促使東京在市場上進行干預。關於前者，法國農業信貸銀行指出，反對派立法者試圖對抗高市的首相職位，至少會減少對日元的單邊交易。</p>
<p>該公司認為，在考慮日本政治局勢對日元的影響時，存在一種_買傳聞，賣事實_的因素。</p>
<p>目前，他們認為投資者繼續購買日元貨幣對，以期待在高市的強有力授權下實施更寬鬆的財政和貨幣政策。</p>
<p>但由於頭寸流向明顯傾向於進一步的日元貶值，風險在於市場一旦正式宣佈選舉，可能會開始淡化這一選舉故事，因為反對派立法者聚集起來試圖對抗高市並減少她的政治影響。因此，法國農業信貸銀行認為，這可能會對進一步由政治驅動的美元/日元上漲造成阻力。</p>

<p>日本 yen 正在經歷顯著的波動，美元/日元在財務大臣片山的干預評論後波動不定。該貨幣對一度跌至 157.97，隨後反彈至 158.30。片山暗示可能會進行市場干預，並表示得到了華盛頓的支持。儘管來自高市貿易的壓力持續存在，但短期情緒已轉為中性。交易者正在評估突發選舉對日元的影響，法國農業信貸銀行建議政治動態可能會影響未來日元的疲軟和美元/日元的走勢</p>

<p>The Japanese yen remains the most volatile among the major currencies today with USD/JPY holding a larger range after the downdraft earlier in Asia trading. The pair hit a low of 157.97 after some added verbal intervention by Japan finance minister Katayama here. That before rebounding to 158.30 levels now, still well below the earlier highs around 158.60-70.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今天，日元在主要貨幣中仍然是最為波動的，美元/日元在亞洲交易早期的下跌後保持了更大的波動區間。該貨幣對在日本財政部長片山的進一步口頭干預後觸及 157.97 的低點。隨後反彈至 158.30，目前仍遠低於早前 158.60-70 的高點。</p>
</div><p>Now, verbal intervention by Tokyo officials isn't anything new when it comes to their attempts to arrest the currency decline. However, this time around the language that is used is a bit more different.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>東京官員的口頭干預在試圖遏制貨幣貶值方面並不是什麼新鮮事。然而，這次使用的語言有些不同。</p>
</div><p>Katayama already stood out with an oddly specific comment about price movement earlier this week here. And today's remarks even went as far as saying that their readiness to intervene in the market is &#34;included in an option in the US-Japan agreement&#34;. In other words, he's delivering a warning to the market that Tokyo has got the green light from Washington to step in if need be.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>片山本週早些時候就價格波動發表了一個異常具體的評論。而今天的言論甚至進一步表示，他們準備在市場上進行干預的意願是 “包含在美日協議中的一個選項”。換句話説，他是在向市場發出警告，東京已經得到了華盛頓的綠燈，可以在必要時介入。</p>
</div><p>Still, the <em>Takaichi trade</em> remains a key driver in continuing to weigh down the yen currency since October. And that momentum remains very much intact in the big picture. But at least for today, the near-term sentiment has shifted a little:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管如此，自十月以來，_高市貿易_仍然是持續壓制日元的關鍵驅動因素。這一勢頭在大局上依然保持不變。但至少在今天，短期情緒有所轉變：</p>
</div><p>After numerous attempts to try and break under the 100-hour moving average (red line) this week, USD/JPY sellers finally made the breakthrough today. And that sees the near-term bias switch to being more neutral now with price action keeping in between that and the 200-hour moving average (blue line).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在本週多次嘗試突破 100 小時移動平均線（紅線）後，美元/日元的賣方今天終於突破了。這使得短期偏向變得更加中性，價格走勢在該線和 200 小時移動平均線（藍線）之間保持。</p>
</div><p>That leaves some room to roam as traders look to figure out how a snap election will factor into the <em>Takaichi trade</em> and if any further selling in the yen could trigger Tokyo to intervene in the market. On the former, Credit Agricole notes that opposition lawmakers trying to fight against Takaichi's premiership will at least reduce the one-sidedness of the trade against the yen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這給交易者留出了一些空間，以便他們考慮快閃選舉將如何影響_高市貿易_，以及日元的進一步貶值是否會促使東京在市場上進行干預。關於前者，法國農業信貸銀行指出，反對派立法者試圖對抗高市的首相職位，至少會減少對日元的單邊交易。</p>
</div><p>The firm argues for that there is an element of <em>buy the rumour, sell the fact</em> in considering the impact of Japan's political scene towards the yen currency.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>該公司認為，在考慮日本政治局勢對日元的影響時，存在一種_買傳聞，賣事實_的因素。</p>
</div><p>As things stand, they see investors continuing to buy up yen pairs in anticipation of looser fiscal and monetary policy under a strengthened Takaichi mandate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，他們認為投資者繼續購買日元貨幣對，以期待在高市的強有力授權下實施更寬鬆的財政和貨幣政策。</p>
</div><p>But with positioning flows already clearly leaning towards further yen weakness, the risk is that the market starts to fade the election story once it is officially called next week as opposition lawmakers gather to try and take on Takaichi and reduce her political influence. In turn, Credit Agricole sees that as a risk in creating headwinds for further USD/JPY upside driven by solely by politics.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但由於頭寸流向明顯傾向於進一步的日元貶值，風險在於市場一旦正式宣佈選舉，可能會開始淡化這一選舉故事，因為反對派立法者聚集起來試圖對抗高市並減少她的政治影響。因此，法國農業信貸銀行認為，這可能會對進一步由政治驅動的美元/日元上漲造成阻力。</p>
</div>

隨着我們接近本週末，日元仍然是市場關注的焦點