<p>作者：Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon 來源：Tiger Research 翻譯：單歐巴，金色財經</p><p>本報告由 Tiger Research 撰寫，呈現我們對 2026 年第一季度比特幣的展望，目標價格為 185,500 美元。</p><h2 id="otprfc7br">關鍵要點</h2><ol><li>穩健的宏觀環境，向上動能放緩：美聯儲的降息和 M2 貨幣供應增長穩步推進，但 45.7 億美元的 ETF 流出影響了短期趨勢。CLARITY 法案預計將吸引大型銀行。</li></ol><h2 id="6u68c4u5j">宏觀經濟寬鬆持續，市場反彈減弱</h2><p>比特幣目前交易價格約為 96,000 美元，比 2025 年 10 月 23 日發佈的上一份報告下降了 12%。儘管如此，圍繞比特幣的宏觀經濟環境依然強勁。</p><p>美聯儲繼續維持寬鬆政策立場。2025 年 9 月至 12 月期間，美聯儲三次降息，每次降幅為 25 個基點，維持當前基準利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的區間。12 月發佈的點陣圖顯示，預計到 2026 年底利率將降至 3.4%。今年大幅降息 50 個基點或更多的可能性較低。然而，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的任期將在今年 5 月結束，特朗普政府可能會任命一位更加鴿派的繼任者，從而確保寬鬆貨幣政策趨勢的延續。儘管宏觀經濟環境趨向寬鬆，但機構投資者的入市意願已降温。2025 年 11 月和 12 月，現貨比特幣 ETF 錄得 45.7 億美元的資金流出，創下該產品推出以來單月最大流出。全年淨資本流入總額為 214 億美元，比去年減少 39%，去年為 352 億美元。1 月份的資產再平衡推動了資金流入，但這一反彈的可持續性仍有待觀察。同時，MicroStrategy（持有 673,783 個比特幣，佔流通供應的 3.2%）、Metaplanet 和 Mara 等公司繼續增加其比特幣持有量。CLARITY 法案作為政策催化劑：在機構需求停滯的背景下，監管政策的推進成為潛在的市場驅動因素。美國眾議院通過的 CLARITY 法案明確了證券交易委員會（SEC）與商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）之間的管轄權劃分，同時允許銀行提供數字資產保管和質押服務。該法案還賦予 CFTC 對數字商品現貨市場的監管權，為交易所和經紀商的合規運營提供了明確的法律框架。美國參議院銀行委員會定於 1 月 15 日審議該法案。如果法案通過，預計將吸引之前猶豫不決的傳統金融機構進入市場。充足的市場流動性，比特幣表現滯後除了監管進展，流動性是影響市場的另一個關鍵變量。2024 年第四季度，全球 M2 貨幣供應量達到歷史最高水平，並仍在上升趨勢中。歷史上，比特幣價格走勢通常領先流動性週期，往往在 M2 達到峯值之前啓動上升趨勢，而在流動性峯值期間則主要處於整合階段。目前的指標表明，市場流動性可能進一步擴大，這表明比特幣仍有上行潛力。由於比特幣提前反映了流動性寬鬆的預期，可能會吸引資金流入。此外，如果股市估值過高，部分資金可能會轉向比特幣市場。宏觀經濟調整係數已降低至 25%，而長期前景依然強勁。整體宏觀經濟趨勢與上一季度相比基本未變，降息和流動性擴張的總體方向依然明確。然而，考慮到機構資金流入放緩、美聯儲領導層可能的變化以及地緣政治風險加劇等因素，我們已將宏觀經濟調整係數從 35% 下調至 25%。儘管有所降低，25% 的正向調整仍然傳遞出積極信號。我們認為，監管政策的推進和 M2 貨幣供應的持續擴張將支持比特幣的中長期上升趨勢，這一核心觀點保持不變。支撐位：$84,000；阻力位：$98,000。除了宏觀經濟因素，鏈上指標也釋放出相應信號。在 2025 年 11 月的市場調整中，抄底行為集中在$84,000 價格水平，形成了明確的支撐區間。比特幣價格自此反彈至該區間之上。$98,000 價格水平對應短期持有者的平均持有成本，構成短期心理阻力位。鏈上指標顯示市場情緒正在從短期恐慌轉向中性區間。關鍵市場指標如 MVRV-Z 指標（1.25）、未實現淨利潤率（NUPL，0.39）和實現利潤/損失率（aSOPR，1.00）均已脱離被低估區間，進入均衡估值區間。考慮到當前市場情緒，因恐慌性拋售驅動的大幅反彈的可能性較低，但當前市場結構仍然提供了盈利潛力。結合前面提到的宏觀經濟環境和監管進展，數據模型顯示比特幣中長期價格上漲的邏輯依然有效。當前市場結構與之前週期相比發生了顯著變化。機構和長期資本的比例增加，降低了以散户投資者為主導的恐慌性拋售的可能性。近期市場回調主要通過逐步的資產再平衡過程完成。儘管短期市場波動性將持續，但鏈上指標和資金流動趨勢表明比特幣的整體長期上升趨勢仍然完好無損。</p><h3 id="f07f4z4wq">目標價格下調至$185,500，樂觀展望不變</h3><p>根據我們的 TVM 估值框架，我們對 2026 年第一季度市場的計算得出比特幣的中性基準估值為$145,000，低於我們之前報告中的$154,000。我們將目標價格修訂為$185,500，基本調整為 0%，宏觀調整為 25%。</p><p>我們已將基本調整從-2% 提高至 0%。儘管比特幣網絡活動與上一季度相比基本持平，但市場對 BTCFi 生態系統的重新關注在一定程度上抵消了多頭和空頭的極端信號。</p><p>相反，我們已將宏觀調整從 35% 降低至 25%。</p><p>儘管利率下調預期、M2 擴張以及《透明法案》的潛在通過等因素繼續支持市場，但機構資金流入放緩和地緣政治不確定性上升使得我們需要採取更為保守的估值方法。這一目標價格的下調不應被解讀為看跌信號。即使在調整後，估值模型仍然顯示比特幣從當前價格來看大約有 100% 的上漲潛力。基準價格的下調主要反映了短期市場波動的影響，而比特幣的內在價值在中長期內仍然呈上升趨勢。最近的價格修正是市場健康的再平衡過程，比特幣的中長期看漲趨勢依然不變。</p>

<p>Tiger Research 發佈的 2026 年第一季度比特幣估值報告將比特幣的目標價格定為 185,500 美元。儘管當前交易價格為 96,000 美元，比上一份報告下降了 12%，但宏觀經濟環境依然強勁，聯邦儲備的降息和 M2 貨幣供應量的增長為此提供了支持。報告強調，ETF 資金流出顯著達到 45.7 億美元，機構投資者的興趣有所降温。CLARITY 法案預計將吸引傳統金融機構，而流動性擴張可能支持比特幣的長期上升趨勢。關鍵支撐位和阻力位分別為 84,000 美元和 98,000 美元</p>

<p>Authors: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon Source: Tiger Research Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon 來源：Tiger Research 翻譯：單歐巴，金色財經</p>
</div><p>This report, written by Tiger Research, presents our outlook for Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026, with a target price of $185,500.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本報告由 Tiger Research 撰寫，呈現我們對 2026 年第一季度比特幣的展望，目標價格為 185,500 美元。</p>
</div><h2>Key Takeaways</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關鍵要點</h2>
</div><ol>
<li>A solid macro environment, with a slowdown in the upward momentum: The Fed's interest rate cuts and M2 money supply growth are progressing steadily, but $4.57 billion in ETF outflows have impacted short-term trends. The CLARITY Act is expected to attract large banks.</li>
</ol>
<div class="lb-trans"><ol>
<li>穩健的宏觀環境，向上動能放緩：美聯儲的降息和 M2 貨幣供應增長穩步推進，但 45.7 億美元的 ETF 流出影響了短期趨勢。CLARITY 法案預計將吸引大型銀行。</li>
</ol>
</div><h2>Macroeconomic easing continues, market rally weakens</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>宏觀經濟寬鬆持續，市場反彈減弱</h2>
</div><p>Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,000, down 12% from the previous report published on October 23, 2025. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic environment surrounding Bitcoin remains robust.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特幣目前交易價格約為 96,000 美元，比 2025 年 10 月 23 日發佈的上一份報告下降了 12%。儘管如此，圍繞比特幣的宏觀經濟環境依然強勁。</p>
</div><h2>The Federal Reserve continues its accommodative policy stance. Between September and December 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, each time by 25 basis points, maintaining the current benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The dot plot released in December shows that interest rates are expected to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026. The likelihood of a significant rate cut of 50 basis points or more this year is low. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end this May, and the Trump administration may appoint a more dovish successor, which will ensure the continuation of the loose monetary policy trend. Despite the shift towards a looser macroeconomic environment, institutional investors' willingness to enter the market has cooled. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $4.57 billion in outflows in November and December 2025, marking the largest single-month outflow since the product's inception. Net capital inflows for the year totaled $21.4 billion, a 39% decrease from $35.2 billion last year. Asset rebalancing in January boosted inflows, but the sustainability of this rebound remains to be seen. Meanwhile, companies such as MicroStrategy (holding 673,783 Bitcoins, representing 3.2% of the circulating supply), Metaplanet, and Mara continued to increase their Bitcoin holdings. The CLARITY Act as a Policy Catalyst: Against the backdrop of stagnant institutional demand, the advancement of regulatory policies has become a potential market driver. The CLARITY Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, clarifies the division of jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while allowing banks to provide digital asset custody and staking services. The act also grants the CFTC regulatory authority over the digital commodity spot market, providing a clear legal framework for the compliant operation of exchanges and brokers. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the bill on January 15. If the bill passes, it is expected to attract previously hesitant traditional financial institutions to enter the market. Ample Market Liquidity, Bitcoin Lagging Performance Besides regulatory progress, liquidity is another key variable affecting the market. Global M2 money supply reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024 and is still on an upward trend. Historically, Bitcoin price movements typically lead liquidity cycles, often initiating an upward trend before M2 reaches its peak, while consolidation is the main phase during liquidity peaks. Current indicators suggest that market liquidity is likely to expand further, indicating that Bitcoin still has upward potential. As Bitcoin reflects expectations of looser liquidity in advance, it may attract capital inflows. Furthermore, if stock market valuations are too high, some capital may shift to the Bitcoin market. The macroeconomic adjustment coefficient has been lowered to 25%, while the long-term outlook remains robust. The overall macroeconomic trend remains fundamentally unchanged compared to the previous quarter, with the general direction of interest rate cuts and liquidity expansion still clear. However, considering factors such as slowing institutional fund inflows, potential changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical risks, we have lowered the macroeconomic adjustment coefficient from 35% to 25%. Despite the reduction, a positive adjustment of 25% still sends a positive signal. We believe that the advancement of regulatory policies and the continued expansion of M2 money supply will support the medium- to long-term upward trend of Bitcoin, and this core view remains unchanged. Support level: $84,000; Resistance level: $98,000. Beyond the macroeconomic factors, on-chain indicators are also releasing corresponding signals. During the market correction in November 2025, bargain hunting concentrated around the $84,000 price level, forming a clear support zone. Bitcoin's price has since rebounded above this zone. The $98,000 price level corresponds to the average holding cost of short-term holders, constituting a short-term psychological resistance level. On-chain indicators show that market sentiment is transitioning from short-term panic to a neutral range. Key market indicators such as the MVRV-Z metric (1.25), Unrealized Net Profit Margin (NUPL, 0.39), and Realized Profit/Loss Margin (aSOPR, 1.00) have all moved out of the undervalued range and into the equilibrium valuation range. While the probability of a significant rebound driven by panic selling is low given the current market sentiment, the current market structure still offers profit potential. Combined with the macroeconomic environment and regulatory developments mentioned earlier, the data model shows that the logic for Bitcoin's medium- to long-term price increase remains valid. The current market structure has changed significantly compared to previous cycles. The increased proportion of institutional and long-term capital has reduced the likelihood of panic selling previously dominated by retail investors. Recent market pullbacks have been largely completed through a gradual asset rebalancing process. Although short-term market volatility will persist, on-chain indicators and fund flow trends suggest that the overall long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains intact.</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>美聯儲繼續維持寬鬆政策立場。2025 年 9 月至 12 月期間，美聯儲三次降息，每次降幅為 25 個基點，維持當前基準利率在 3.50% 至 3.75% 的區間。12 月發佈的點陣圖顯示，預計到 2026 年底利率將降至 3.4%。今年大幅降息 50 個基點或更多的可能性較低。然而，美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的任期將在今年 5 月結束，特朗普政府可能會任命一位更加鴿派的繼任者，從而確保寬鬆貨幣政策趨勢的延續。儘管宏觀經濟環境趨向寬鬆，但機構投資者的入市意願已降温。2025 年 11 月和 12 月，現貨比特幣 ETF 錄得 45.7 億美元的資金流出，創下該產品推出以來單月最大流出。全年淨資本流入總額為 214 億美元，比去年減少 39%，去年為 352 億美元。1 月份的資產再平衡推動了資金流入，但這一反彈的可持續性仍有待觀察。同時，MicroStrategy（持有 673,783 個比特幣，佔流通供應的 3.2%）、Metaplanet 和 Mara 等公司繼續增加其比特幣持有量。CLARITY 法案作為政策催化劑：在機構需求停滯的背景下，監管政策的推進成為潛在的市場驅動因素。美國眾議院通過的 CLARITY 法案明確了證券交易委員會（SEC）與商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）之間的管轄權劃分，同時允許銀行提供數字資產保管和質押服務。該法案還賦予 CFTC 對數字商品現貨市場的監管權，為交易所和經紀商的合規運營提供了明確的法律框架。美國參議院銀行委員會定於 1 月 15 日審議該法案。如果法案通過，預計將吸引之前猶豫不決的傳統金融機構進入市場。充足的市場流動性，比特幣表現滯後除了監管進展，流動性是影響市場的另一個關鍵變量。2024 年第四季度，全球 M2 貨幣供應量達到歷史最高水平，並仍在上升趨勢中。歷史上，比特幣價格走勢通常領先流動性週期，往往在 M2 達到峯值之前啓動上升趨勢，而在流動性峯值期間則主要處於整合階段。目前的指標表明，市場流動性可能進一步擴大，這表明比特幣仍有上行潛力。由於比特幣提前反映了流動性寬鬆的預期，可能會吸引資金流入。此外，如果股市估值過高，部分資金可能會轉向比特幣市場。宏觀經濟調整係數已降低至 25%，而長期前景依然強勁。整體宏觀經濟趨勢與上一季度相比基本未變，降息和流動性擴張的總體方向依然明確。然而，考慮到機構資金流入放緩、美聯儲領導層可能的變化以及地緣政治風險加劇等因素，我們已將宏觀經濟調整係數從 35% 下調至 25%。儘管有所降低，25% 的正向調整仍然傳遞出積極信號。我們認為，監管政策的推進和 M2 貨幣供應的持續擴張將支持比特幣的中長期上升趨勢，這一核心觀點保持不變。支撐位：$84,000；阻力位：$98,000。除了宏觀經濟因素，鏈上指標也釋放出相應信號。在 2025 年 11 月的市場調整中，抄底行為集中在$84,000 價格水平，形成了明確的支撐區間。比特幣價格自此反彈至該區間之上。$98,000 價格水平對應短期持有者的平均持有成本，構成短期心理阻力位。鏈上指標顯示市場情緒正在從短期恐慌轉向中性區間。關鍵市場指標如 MVRV-Z 指標（1.25）、未實現淨利潤率（NUPL，0.39）和實現利潤/損失率（aSOPR，1.00）均已脱離被低估區間，進入均衡估值區間。考慮到當前市場情緒，因恐慌性拋售驅動的大幅反彈的可能性較低，但當前市場結構仍然提供了盈利潛力。結合前面提到的宏觀經濟環境和監管進展，數據模型顯示比特幣中長期價格上漲的邏輯依然有效。當前市場結構與之前週期相比發生了顯著變化。機構和長期資本的比例增加，降低了以散户投資者為主導的恐慌性拋售的可能性。近期市場回調主要通過逐步的資產再平衡過程完成。儘管短期市場波動性將持續，但鏈上指標和資金流動趨勢表明比特幣的整體長期上升趨勢仍然完好無損。</h2>
</div><h3>Target price lowered to $185,500, bullish outlook unchanged</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>目標價格下調至$185,500，樂觀展望不變</h3>
</div><p>Based on our TVM valuation framework, our calculations for the market in Q1 2026 yield a neutral benchmark valuation of $145,000 for Bitcoin, down from $154,000 in our previous report. We revise our target price to $185,500 with a 0% fundamental adjustment and a 25% macro adjustment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據我們的 TVM 估值框架，我們對 2026 年第一季度市場的計算得出比特幣的中性基準估值為$145,000，低於我們之前報告中的$154,000。我們將目標價格修訂為$185,500，基本調整為 0%，宏觀調整為 25%。</p>
</div><p>We have increased the fundamental adjustment from -2% to 0%. While Bitcoin network activity remained largely flat compared to the previous quarter, the renewed market focus on the BTCFi ecosystem partially offset the extreme signals from both bulls and bears.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們已將基本調整從-2% 提高至 0%。儘管比特幣網絡活動與上一季度相比基本持平，但市場對 BTCFi 生態系統的重新關注在一定程度上抵消了多頭和空頭的極端信號。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, we have decreased the macro adjustment from 35% to 25%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，我們已將宏觀調整從 35% 降低至 25%。</p>
</div><p>While factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, M2 expansion, and the potential passage of the Clarity Act continue to support the market, slowing institutional inflows and rising geopolitical uncertainty necessitate a more conservative valuation approach. This target price reduction should not be interpreted as a bearish signal. Even after the adjustment, the valuation model still indicates approximately 100% upside potential for Bitcoin from its current price. The benchmark price reduction primarily reflects the impact of short-term market volatility, while Bitcoin's intrinsic value remains on an upward trend in the medium to long term. The recent price correction is a healthy market rebalancing process, and the medium- to long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin remains unchanged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管利率下調預期、M2 擴張以及《透明法案》的潛在通過等因素繼續支持市場，但機構資金流入放緩和地緣政治不確定性上升使得我們需要採取更為保守的估值方法。這一目標價格的下調不應被解讀為看跌信號。即使在調整後，估值模型仍然顯示比特幣從當前價格來看大約有 100% 的上漲潛力。基準價格的下調主要反映了短期市場波動的影響，而比特幣的內在價值在中長期內仍然呈上升趨勢。最近的價格修正是市場健康的再平衡過程，比特幣的中長期看漲趨勢依然不變。</p>
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2026 年第一季度比特幣估值報告：目標價格為 185,500 美元