<p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
<p>倫敦，1 月 16 日（路透社）——錫市場在新年伊始表現異常火爆，倫敦和上海市場的價格均飆升至歷史最高名義水平。</p>
<p>根據中國有色金屬工業協會（CNMIA）的説法，這一漲勢是 “不合理的”。該協會上個月警告各方 “避免盲目跟風”。</p>
<p>北京的警告並沒有在任何方面阻止中國投資者追逐價格，反而使其不斷攀升。</p>
<p>上海期貨交易所（ShFE）的錫合約（SSNc1）週四的交易量超過了一百萬公噸。這是全球年實際使用量的兩倍多。</p>
<p>錫顯然處於一個投機泡沫中，一旦趨勢轉變，這個泡沫將會破裂。但實體市場規模與投資興趣之間的不匹配預示着未來將會有更多的波動。</p>
<p>而且不僅僅是錫。考慮到目前投資者在工業金屬領域的狂潮，錫目前的困境可能預示着其他金屬供應鏈的麻煩。</p>
<h3>不理性的繁榮</h3>
<p>倫敦金屬交易所（LME）的錫合約在過去幾個月一直在上漲，但本週隨着中國投資者的強大財力湧入，價格如超新星般爆發。</p>
<p>LME 三個月金屬（CMSN3）在週二突破了 2022 年 3 月的價格峯值 51000 美元/公噸，並在週三飆升至 54760 美元。</p>
<p>推動這一漲勢的敍述是供應短缺。</p>
<p>錫的結構性供應問題眾所周知。全球礦產生產過於集中在少數國家，並且嚴重依賴於剛果民主共和國和緬甸半自治的瓦州等邊緣地區。</p>
<p>但這一漲勢時機不當。</p>
<p>如果説有什麼變化，錫的供應狀況在最近幾個月有所改善。</p>
<p>剛果的比西礦因 M23 叛亂的威脅自一年前面臨被攻陷的危險以來已經減退。實際上，礦業運營商 Alphamin Resources（AFM.V）在強勁的第三季度表現後提高了年度生產指導。</p>
<p>緬甸的巨型曼毛礦也在經歷了一段時間的停產後，顯示出恢復生產的跡象。中國在 11 月從鄰國進口了 7190 噸錫原材料，這是自 2024 年 8 月以來的最高月度進口量。</p>
<p>儘管印尼對非法採礦的打擊仍在繼續，但另一方面，印尼錫出口商協會預計官方生產配額將從 2025 年的 53000 噸增加到 2026 年的 60000 噸。</p>
<p>目前精煉錫也並不稀缺。</p>
<p>生產商和交易商在價格上漲中交付了大量金屬。LME 和 ShFE 的庫存從 10 月底的 11000 噸上升到超過 19000 噸。</p>
<p>在錫的 2022 年之前的峯值時，庫存不足 5000 噸。</p>
<p>因此，當中國國家金屬機構將錫的超高價格表現描述為 “不合理” 時，可能是有道理的。</p>
<h3>流動性不匹配</h3>
<p>問題在於，借用經濟學家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯的話，市場可以保持 “不合理” 的時間比你保持償付能力的時間要長。</p>
<p>特別是對於像錫這樣的小市場，投資者對價格的影響可能過大。</p>
<p>這在上海的情況顯然如此。</p>
<p>這種投機性激增長期以來一直是中國商品市場的特徵。去年是鋁土礦。</p>
<p>中國當局已經進入了熟練的應對模式，提高了交易保證金，特別是日內交易的成本，並限制非會員的持倉規模。</p>
<p>但不僅僅是中國人被錫的供應受限和日益增長的用作半導體焊料的敍述所吸引。</p>
<p>過去兩年，基金參與倫敦錫市場的情況穩步上升。</p>
<p>當錫價在 2021 年底和 2022 年初達到如此高峰時，投資基金的多頭頭寸達到了 2887 份合約，相當於 14435 噸。上個月某個階段，投資多頭頭寸上升至創紀錄的 5753 份合約，或 28765 噸。</p>
<p>流動性激增使得這個歷史上價格波動較大的市場更加動盪。</p>
<p>期貨狂潮給實體供應鏈帶來了非常現實的問題，因為生產商和消費者在對沖時努力融資保證金。</p>
<p>流動性風險何時會超過價格風險？或者，你能維持償付能力多久？</p>
<h3>基金與基本面</h3>
<p>幾年前，幾乎沒有人關注錫。這個市場在實際交易量和期貨活動方面都太小，不足以吸引大多數基金經理的投資。</p>
<p>但隨着世界意識到錫在即將到來的物聯網時代中的核心角色，這種情況正在改變。沒有電路板，就沒有互聯網。在我們這個超連接的世界中，幾乎沒有其他東西。</p>
<p>但結果是，過多的資金湧入一個無法應對的市場。</p>
<p>代表全球最大精煉錫生產商和用户的 CNMIA 明確指出當前繁榮所帶來的危險。</p>
<p>“由基金驅動的快速價格飆升已偏離行業基本面，顯著放大了市場風險，並損害了全球產業鏈。”</p>
<p>隨着基金資金湧入工業金屬領域，尋找除黃金和白銀以外的硬資產，錫的戲劇可能為其他需求旺盛的金屬如銅發出及時的警告。</p>
<p>安迪·霍姆是路透社專欄作家。文中所表達的觀點僅代表他個人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。關注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
<p>上海錫市場的不理性繁榮</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2556" height="1052" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9"/></p>
<p>錫庫存激增，價格創下歷史新高</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1584" height="808" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs"/></p>
<p>基金在 12 月持有 LME 錫合約的創紀錄多頭頭寸</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2548" height="1112" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im"/></p>
<p>（編輯：瑪格麗塔·蔡）</p>
<p>)</p>

<p>錫市場因投機交易而飆升至創紀錄高位，尤其是中國投資者的參與。中國有色金屬工業協會警告即將出現泡沫，因為上海期貨交易所的交易量超過了年度全球使用量。儘管存在結構性供應問題，但近期生產改善和庫存上升與價格上漲相矛盾。投資的湧入正在造成市場波動，引發了對錫這種小型市場價格可持續性的擔憂。這一情況反映了工業金屬的更廣泛趨勢，預示着供應鏈可能面臨的挑戰</p>

<p>By Andy Home</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：安迪·霍姆</p>
</div><p>LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The tin market has kicked off the new year in explosive form, prices racing to all-time nominal highs on both the London and Shanghai markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦，1 月 16 日（路透社）——錫市場在新年伊始表現異常火爆，倫敦和上海市場的價格均飆升至歷史最高名義水平。</p>
</div><p>The rally is “unreasonable”, according to the state-backed China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA). It warned all parties last month to “avoid blindly following the trend”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據中國有色金屬工業協會（CNMIA）的説法，這一漲勢是 “不合理的”。該協會上個月警告各方 “避免盲目跟風”。</p>
</div><p>Beijing’s admonition hasn’t in any way deterred Chinese investors from doing just that and chasing the price ever higher.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>北京的警告並沒有在任何方面阻止中國投資者追逐價格，反而使其不斷攀升。</p>
</div><p>The volume of trading on the Shanghai Futures Exchange’s (ShFE) tin contract (SSNc1) exceeded a million metric tons on Thursday. That’s more than twice the world’s annual physical usage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上海期貨交易所（ShFE）的錫合約（SSNc1）週四的交易量超過了一百萬公噸。這是全球年實際使用量的兩倍多。</p>
</div><p>Tin is clearly in a speculative bubble, which will burst just as soon as the trend turns. But the mismatch between the size of the physical market and investment interest foreshadows more volatility ahead.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫顯然處於一個投機泡沫中，一旦趨勢轉變，這個泡沫將會破裂。但實體市場規模與投資興趣之間的不匹配預示着未來將會有更多的波動。</p>
</div><p>And not just for tin. Given the tidal wave of investor buying washing through the industrial metals sector right now, tin’s current toil and trouble may be a harbinger for other metal supply chains.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而且不僅僅是錫。考慮到目前投資者在工業金屬領域的狂潮，錫目前的困境可能預示着其他金屬供應鏈的麻煩。</p>
</div><h3>IRRATIONAL EXUBERANCE</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>不理性的繁榮</h3>
</div><p>The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin contract has been bubbling away for several months but turned supernova this week as Chinese investors brought their considerable financial firepower to the rally.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>倫敦金屬交易所（LME）的錫合約在過去幾個月一直在上漲，但本週隨着中國投資者的強大財力湧入，價格如超新星般爆發。</p>
</div><p>LME three-month metal (CMSN3) took out the previous March 2022 price peak at $51,000 per metric ton on Tuesday and leapt off the charts to $54,760 on Wednesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>LME 三個月金屬（CMSN3）在週二突破了 2022 年 3 月的價格峯值 51000 美元/公噸，並在週三飆升至 54760 美元。</p>
</div><p>The driving narrative is one of supply shortfall.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>推動這一漲勢的敍述是供應短缺。</p>
</div><p>Tin’s structural supply issues are well known. Global mine production is too concentrated in too few countries and heavily dependent on frontier jurisdictions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo and the semi-autonomous Wa State in Myanmar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫的結構性供應問題眾所周知。全球礦產生產過於集中在少數國家，並且嚴重依賴於剛果民主共和國和緬甸半自治的瓦州等邊緣地區。</p>
</div><p>But this rally is ill-timed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但這一漲勢時機不當。</p>
</div><p>If anything, the tin supply picture has been improving over recent months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果説有什麼變化，錫的供應狀況在最近幾個月有所改善。</p>
</div><p>The threat to Congo’s Bisie mine from the M23 insurgency has receded since the site was in danger of being overrun a year ago. Indeed, mine operator Alphamin Resources (AFM.V) raised its annual production guidance after a strong third quarter performance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剛果的比西礦因 M23 叛亂的威脅自一年前面臨被攻陷的危險以來已經減退。實際上，礦業運營商 Alphamin Resources（AFM.V）在強勁的第三季度表現後提高了年度生產指導。</p>
</div><p>The giant Man Maw mine in Myanmar is also showing signs of renewed productive life after a prolonged absence. China imported 7,190 tons of tin raw materials from its neighbour in November, the highest monthly tally since August 2024.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>緬甸的巨型曼毛礦也在經歷了一段時間的停產後，顯示出恢復生產的跡象。中國在 11 月從鄰國進口了 7190 噸錫原材料，這是自 2024 年 8 月以來的最高月度進口量。</p>
</div><p>And while Indonesia’s crackdown on illegal mining continues, the flip side is an expected increase in official-sector production quotas from 53,000 tons in 2025 to 60,000 tons in 2026, according to the Indonesia Tin Exporters Association.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管印尼對非法採礦的打擊仍在繼續，但另一方面，印尼錫出口商協會預計官方生產配額將從 2025 年的 53000 噸增加到 2026 年的 60000 噸。</p>
</div><p>Nor is there any scarcity of refined tin right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前精煉錫也並不稀缺。</p>
</div><p>Producers and traders have delivered significant amounts of metal into the price rally. Combined stocks held by the LME and ShFE have risen from 11,000 tons at the end of October to over 19,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>生產商和交易商在價格上漲中交付了大量金屬。LME 和 ShFE 的庫存從 10 月底的 11000 噸上升到超過 19000 噸。</p>
</div><p>At the time of tin’s previous 2022 peak, inventory was under 5,000 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在錫的 2022 年之前的峯值時，庫存不足 5000 噸。</p>
</div><p>So when China’s state metals body describes tin’s super-charged price performance as “unreasonable”, it may have a point.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，當中國國家金屬機構將錫的超高價格表現描述為 “不合理” 時，可能是有道理的。</p>
</div><h3>LIQUIDITY MISMATCH</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>流動性不匹配</h3>
</div><p>The problem, to paraphrase economist John Maynard Keynes, is that a market can remain “unreasonable” longer than you can remain solvent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於，借用經濟學家約翰·梅納德·凱恩斯的話，市場可以保持 “不合理” 的時間比你保持償付能力的時間要長。</p>
</div><p>Particularly if it’s a small market such as tin, where investors can have an outsize price impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特別是對於像錫這樣的小市場，投資者對價格的影響可能過大。</p>
</div><p>This is clearly the case in Shanghai right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這在上海的情況顯然如此。</p>
</div><p>Such speculative surges have long characterised China’s commodity markets. Last year it was alumina.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這種投機性激增長期以來一直是中國商品市場的特徵。去年是鋁土礦。</p>
</div><p>The Chinese authorities have gone into well-practiced fire-fighting mode, raising trading margins, particularly the cost of intraday trades, and limiting position sizes for non-members.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中國當局已經進入了熟練的應對模式，提高了交易保證金，特別是日內交易的成本，並限制非會員的持倉規模。</p>
</div><p>But it’s not just the Chinese who have been drawn in by tin’s narrative of constrained supply and growing usage as a semiconductor solder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但不僅僅是中國人被錫的供應受限和日益增長的用作半導體焊料的敍述所吸引。</p>
</div><p>Fund participation in the London tin market has been steadily rising over the last couple of years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>過去兩年，基金參與倫敦錫市場的情況穩步上升。</p>
</div><p>When tin prices last scaled such giddy heights in late 2021 and early 2022, the investment fund long position peaked at 2,887 contracts, equivalent to 14,435 tons. At one stage last month, the investment long position rose to a record 5,753 contracts, or 28,765 tons.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>當錫價在 2021 年底和 2022 年初達到如此高峰時，投資基金的多頭頭寸達到了 2887 份合約，相當於 14435 噸。上個月某個階段，投資多頭頭寸上升至創紀錄的 5753 份合約，或 28765 噸。</p>
</div><p>The liquidity rush has injected more volatility into a market with a history of price wildness.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流動性激增使得這個歷史上價格波動較大的市場更加動盪。</p>
</div><p>The futures frenzy poses very real-world problems for the physical supply chain as producers and consumers struggle to finance margins against their hedges.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期貨狂潮給實體供應鏈帶來了非常現實的問題，因為生產商和消費者在對沖時努力融資保證金。</p>
</div><p>When does liquidity risk override price risk? Or, how long can you remain solvent?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流動性風險何時會超過價格風險？或者，你能維持償付能力多久？</p>
</div><h3>FUNDS AND FUNDAMENTALS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>基金與基本面</h3>
</div><p>A few years ago no one paid much attention to tin. The market was too small, both in terms of physical volumes and futures activity, to qualify for investment with most fund managers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>幾年前，幾乎沒有人關注錫。這個市場在實際交易量和期貨活動方面都太小，不足以吸引大多數基金經理的投資。</p>
</div><p>That is changing as the world wakes up to tin’s central role in the coming Internet of Things Age. No circuit boards, no internet. And very little else in our hyper-connected world.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但隨着世界意識到錫在即將到來的物聯網時代中的核心角色，這種情況正在改變。沒有電路板，就沒有互聯網。在我們這個超連接的世界中，幾乎沒有其他東西。</p>
</div><p>But the result is too much money flooding into a market ill-equipped to handle it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但結果是，過多的資金湧入一個無法應對的市場。</p>
</div><p>CNMIA, which speaks on behalf of both the world’s largest refined tin producer and user, is clear about the dangers posed by the current exuberance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>代表全球最大精煉錫生產商和用户的 CNMIA 明確指出當前繁榮所帶來的危險。</p>
</div><p>“The rapid price surge driven by funds has deviated from industry fundamentals, significantly magnifying market risks and harming the global industry chain.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“由基金驅動的快速價格飆升已偏離行業基本面，顯著放大了市場風險，並損害了全球產業鏈。”</p>
</div><p>As fund money pours into the industrial metals complex in search of hard assets other than gold and silver, tin’s drama may serve as a timely warning for other in-demand metals such as copper.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着基金資金湧入工業金屬領域，尋找除黃金和白銀以外的硬資產，錫的戲劇可能為其他需求旺盛的金屬如銅發出及時的警告。</p>
</div><p>Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) for thought-provoking, data-driven commentary on markets and finance. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>安迪·霍姆是路透社專欄作家。文中所表達的觀點僅代表他個人。喜歡這篇專欄嗎？請查看路透社開放興趣（ROI），獲取關於市場和金融的發人深省、數據驅動的評論。關注 ROI 的 LinkedIn 和 X。</p>
</div><p>Irrational exuberance on the Shanghai tin market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上海錫市場的不理性繁榮</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3LOPxs9"/></p>
<p>Tin stocks surge as price hits record highs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>錫庫存激增，價格創下歷史新高</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/4pIlnVs"/></p>
<p>Funds held a record long position on the LME tin contract in December</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基金在 12 月持有 LME 錫合約的創紀錄多頭頭寸</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im" alt="" original-src="https://tmsnrt.rs/3Ngn3Im"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Marguerita Choy)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（編輯：瑪格麗塔·蔡）</p>
</div><p>)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>)</p>
</div>

ROI-錫價泡沫預示着全球工業將面臨艱難和困擾：安迪·霍姆