<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="2494" height="1682" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg"/></p>
<p>本週，英鎊成為焦點，因為交易者調整了對英格蘭銀行（BoE）降息的預期。週五，GBP/USD 匯率交易在 1.2692，低於上週五的高點 1.2760。</p>
<h2>BoE 降息押注</h2>
<p>儘管英國發布了混合的經濟數據，且裏希·蘇納克呼籲在七月舉行提前選舉，GBP/USD 貨幣對仍然回落。</p>
<p>週三發佈的數據表明，該國的通脹下降速度低於預期。整體 CPI 降至 2.4%，而剔除波動較大的食品和能源產品的核心數據降至 3.6%。</p>
<p>大多數分析師預計 CPI 數據將達到或低於 BoE 的目標 2.0%，因為能源價格已經下降。實際上，能源監管機構的一份報告稱，七月的能源賬單將下降 7%。</p>
<p>通脹數據的下降使消費者信心增強。Gfk 的數據顯示，消費者信心在五月連續第二個月上升，達到了 -17，優於預期的 -18。</p>
<p>然而，另一份報告顯示，四月的零售銷售仍然承壓。根據國家統計局（ONS）的數據，整體零售銷售環比下降 2.3%，同比下降 2.7%，均低於預期的下降 0.5% 和 0.2%。</p>
<p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源產品的核心通脹環比下降 2.0%，而核心 CPI 則暴跌 3.0%。這些數據，加上疲軟的製造業和服務業採購經理人指數（PMI），意味着經濟增長不如預期強勁。</p>
<p>分析師們開始排除 BoE 六月降息的可能性。摩根士丹利、高盛和滙豐的經濟學家認為，央行不會如廣泛預期的那樣在六月降息。相反，他們預計降息將在八月，即提前選舉一個月後進行。一位滙豐分析師表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“六月的貨幣政策委員會會議本來就可能是個懸念，而強勁的通脹數據可能打消了降息的前景。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>GBP/USD 技術分析</h2>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="570" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png"/></p>
<p>TradingView 的 GBP/USD 圖表</p>
<p>在 4 月 22 日形成晨星形態後，GBP/USD 匯率反彈。隨着匯率上漲，25 日和 50 日指數移動平均線（EMA）形成了看漲交叉。</p>
<p>它已移動到 Woodie 支點的第一個阻力位，而 MACD 指標已上升至中性點以上。相對強弱指數（RSI）在接近超買水平後向下指向。</p>
<p>因此，該貨幣對可能會繼續上漲，因為買家瞄準 1.2900 的第二個阻力位，這與 5 月 8 日的最高點相吻合。</p>
<p>關於 GBP/USD 的預測：摩根士丹利、滙豐對 BoE 的態度轉變的信號首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>

匯豐控股

滙豐

摩根士丹利

匯豐控股有限公司

<p>英鎊/美元匯率引起了關注，因為交易者重新評估對英格蘭銀行（BoE）降息的前景。目前匯率為 1.2692，較之前的 1.2760 下跌，英鎊的波動受到混合經濟數據的影響，包括通脹下降速度低於預期和零售銷售下滑。摩根士丹利和滙豐的分析師現在預測降息將在 8 月而非 6 月，受到近期通脹數據的影響。技術分析表明，英鎊/美元有可能上漲至 1.2900，跟隨看漲指標</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/93497544-m-normal-none.jpg"/></p>
<p>The British pound has come in the spotlight this week as traders adjust their Bank of England (BoE) interest rate cuts outlook. The GBP/USD exchange rate was trading at 1.2692 on Friday, down from last Friday’s high of 1.2760.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週，英鎊成為焦點，因為交易者調整了對英格蘭銀行（BoE）降息的預期。週五，GBP/USD 匯率交易在 1.2692，低於上週五的高點 1.2760。</p>
</div><h2>BoE interest rate cuts bets</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>BoE 降息押注</h2>
</div><p>The GBP/USD pair pulled back even after the UK published mixed economic data and Rishi Sunak called for a snap election in July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管英國發布了混合的經濟數據，且裏希·蘇納克呼籲在七月舉行提前選舉，GBP/USD 貨幣對仍然回落。</p>
</div><p>Data released on Wednesday revealed that the country’s inflation dropped at a slower pace than expected. The headline CPI tumbled to 2.4% while the core figure, which excludes the volatile food and energy products fell to 3.6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三發佈的數據表明，該國的通脹下降速度低於預期。整體 CPI 降至 2.4%，而剔除波動較大的食品和能源產品的核心數據降至 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Most analysts were expecting the CPI figure to come in at or below the BoE’s target of 2.0% because energy prices have dropped. In fact, a report by the energy regulator said that energy bills will drop 7% in July.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大多數分析師預計 CPI 數據將達到或低於 BoE 的目標 2.0%，因為能源價格已經下降。實際上，能源監管機構的一份報告稱，七月的能源賬單將下降 7%。</p>
</div><p>The falling inflation figures has led to more confidence among consumers. Data by Gfk showed that consumer confidence rose for the second straight month in May. It moved to minus 17, better than the expected minus 18.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通脹數據的下降使消費者信心增強。Gfk 的數據顯示，消費者信心在五月連續第二個月上升，達到了 -17，優於預期的 -18。</p>
</div><p>However, another report showed that retail sales remained under pressure in April. According to the Office of National Statistics (ONS), the headline retail sales dropped by 2.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY, worse than the expected drop of 0.5% and 0.2%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，另一份報告顯示，四月的零售銷售仍然承壓。根據國家統計局（ONS）的數據，整體零售銷售環比下降 2.3%，同比下降 2.7%，均低於預期的下降 0.5% 和 0.2%。</p>
</div><p>Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy products, dropped to 2.0% MoM while the core CPI crashed by 3.0%. These figures, together with the weak flash manufacturing and services PMIs, mean that the economic growth is not as strong as expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剔除波動較大的食品和能源產品的核心通脹環比下降 2.0%，而核心 CPI 則暴跌 3.0%。這些數據，加上疲軟的製造業和服務業採購經理人指數（PMI），意味着經濟增長不如預期強勁。</p>
</div><p>Analysts have started ruling our a June rate cut by the BoE. Economists at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC believe that the bank will not cut rates in June as widely expected. Instead, they expect the cut to happen in August, a month after the snap election. A HSBC analyst said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析師們開始排除 BoE 六月降息的可能性。摩根士丹利、高盛和滙豐的經濟學家認為，央行不會如廣泛預期的那樣在六月降息。相反，他們預計降息將在八月，即提前選舉一個月後進行。一位滙豐分析師表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“The June MPC meeting was always likely to be a close call and and punchy inflation data may have knocked out the prospect of a cut.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“六月的貨幣政策委員會會議本來就可能是個懸念，而強勁的通脹數據可能打消了降息的前景。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>GBP/USD technical analysis</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>GBP/USD 技術分析</h2>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/image-198-1024x570.png"/></p>
<p>GBP/USD chart by TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TradingView 的 GBP/USD 圖表</p>
</div><p>The GBP to USD exchange rate has bounced back after forming a morning star pattern on April 22nd. As it jumped, the 25-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) have formed a bullish crossover.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 4 月 22 日形成晨星形態後，GBP/USD 匯率反彈。隨着匯率上漲，25 日和 50 日指數移動平均線（EMA）形成了看漲交叉。</p>
</div><p>It has moved to the first resistance of the Woodie pivot point while the MACD indicator has moved above the neutral point. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pointed downwards after nearing the overbought level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它已移動到 Woodie 支點的第一個阻力位，而 MACD 指標已上升至中性點以上。相對強弱指數（RSI）在接近超買水平後向下指向。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising as buyers target the second resistance at 1.2900, which coincides with its highest point on May 8th.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，該貨幣對可能會繼續上漲，因為買家瞄準 1.2900 的第二個阻力位，這與 5 月 8 日的最高點相吻合。</p>
</div><p>The post GBP/USD forecast: signal as Morgan Stanley, HSBC change tune on BoE appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>關於 GBP/USD 的預測：摩根士丹利、滙豐對 BoE 的態度轉變的信號首次出現在 Invezz 上。</p>
</div>

GBP/USD forecast: signal as Morgan Stanley, HSBC change tune on BoE

- 英鎊因交易員調整英央行利率預期而受到關注。  
- GBP/USD 匯率從 1.2760 下跌至 1.2692，反映出經濟數據利空。  
- 分析師預計英央行將在八月降息，而非六月。

英鎊/美元預測：摩根士丹利和滙豐改變了對英國央行的看法