<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>2 月 1 日，英格蘭銀行（BoE）宣佈決定將利率維持在 5.25% 時，沒人感到驚訝。</p>
<p>隨着人們對美國聯邦儲備委員會可能在 3 月降息的樂觀情緒日益高漲，以及歐洲中央銀行可能在 6 月跟進，許多人將當前的利率維持視為一種必要的表演，以維持 “高利率持續更長時間” 的假象，然後儘快降低利率。</p>
<p>但對於經濟背景截然不同的英國來説，情況是否會有所不同？是否會有一個截然不同的驚喜在等待着？</p>
<h2>降息意願的 ‘微弱證據’</h2>
<p>英國高淨值投資服務公司 Wealth Club 的投資經理 Nicholas Hyett 表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>在聖誕節之前，投資者對中央銀行家們的印象是他們隨時準備降息，只等着第一個藉口就能再次降低利率……[但] 幾乎沒有證據表明中央銀行家們渴望降息。最新的 BoE 決定中利率如預期保持不變，但有兩位貨幣政策委員會成員投票支持加息，認為貨幣政策需要在更長時間內保持緊縮，以控制核心通脹。”</p>
</blockquote>
<h2>87% 的脱節</h2>
<p>問題在於公眾並沒有相同的看法。新的研究發現，英國居民實際上認為情況正好相反。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png"/></p>
<p>來源：Clifton Private Finance 抵押貸款脈搏報告 2024</p>
<p>在 Clifton Private Finance 最近的一項研究中，名為《Clifton Private Finance 抵押貸款脈搏報告 2024》，在 2023 年 11 月至 2024 年 1 月期間，數千名訪問者被問及他們是否認為利率會升高。</p>
<p>他們發現，絕大多數參與者——87%——強烈認為利率在接下來的 12 個月內會保持不變或下降。在這些人中，62% 似乎積極認為會降息，而近 25% 認為利率會保持不變。</p>
<p>僅有 13.4% 的受訪者願意考慮在接下來的一年內，出於任何原因，利率可能實際升高的可能性。</p>
<h2>震驚之後</h2>
<p>如果 2024 年英國不是降息而是加息，這無疑會讓許多人感到驚訝——這種震驚可能會使市場暫時陷入動盪。但這種情況有多大可能性呢？</p>
<p>中央銀行在最近幾個月一再表示，如果他們看到通脹再次抬頭的任何微弱跡象，他們願意 “徹底扭轉局面”，再次加息。</p>
<p>在 2 月 1 日，英格蘭銀行行長安德魯·貝利在 BoE 的貨幣報告新聞發佈會上表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>如果我們在接下來的三年內將銀行利率保持在 5.25%，我們認為通脹最終可能會顯著低於目標。但如果我們遵循市場利率的調整路徑 [降低利率]，我們認為通脹在未來三年內大部分時間將高於目標。我們必須在足夠長的時間內保持貨幣政策的緊縮。需要保持緊縮的時間有多長？需要達到什麼水平的銀行利率才能實現這一點？這些問題的答案最終將取決於即將到來的數據告訴我們關於英國經濟和中期通脹的前景。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>換句話説：‘如果沒有外部的地緣政治逆風再次出現，就像俄羅斯第一次入侵烏克蘭那樣，那麼我們在中期內降低利率的機會看起來不錯。如果沒有，我們將繼續保持緊縮。’</p>
<p>問題在於，已經存在顯著的逆風：中東持續的危機，貝利在同一貨幣政策報告演講中直接提到過。</p>
<h2>結論</h2>
<p>英格蘭銀行加息，而不是世界其他地方期待已久的降息，並不是不可能的。</p>
<p>我們只希望，如果加息發生，這一意外決定對英國市場造成的震驚不會使其已經岌岌可危的經濟在今年無法實現任何增長。</p>
<p>本文標題為《2024 年英國加息的可能性 - 如果 87% 的人錯了呢？》，首發於 Invezz。</p>

<p>英格蘭銀行（BoE）在 2 月 1 日將利率維持在 5.25%，這一決定並未讓人感到意外。儘管美國和歐洲對降息的樂觀情緒在上升，但英國居民普遍認為利率將保持不變或下降，最近的一項調查顯示 87% 的人預計不會加息。投資經理尼古拉斯·海耶特（Nicholas Hyett）指出，央行官員中對降息的渴望幾乎沒有證據。英國可能的加息將可能震動市場，尤其是在當前經濟面臨的各種阻力，包括地緣政治緊張局勢。英格蘭銀行的立場依然謹慎，強調需要採取限制性的貨幣政策</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/bank-of-england-is-considering-its-own-cbdc-740x416.jpg"/></p>
<p>On February 1st, when the Bank of England (BoE) announced that it had decided to keep interest rates steady at 5.25%, it surprised no one.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月 1 日，英格蘭銀行（BoE）宣佈決定將利率維持在 5.25% 時，沒人感到驚訝。</p>
</div><p>With growing optimism that the Federal Reserve in the United States may cut rates as soon as March, and that the European Central Bank may follow suit around June, many are viewing the current rate holds as a necessary bit of theatre to keep up the ‘higher for longer’ charade before lowering interest rates as quickly as possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着人們對美國聯邦儲備委員會可能在 3 月降息的樂觀情緒日益高漲，以及歐洲中央銀行可能在 6 月跟進，許多人將當前的利率維持視為一種必要的表演，以維持 “高利率持續更長時間” 的假象，然後儘快降低利率。</p>
</div><p>But what if that’s not the case for the United Kingdom, with its very different current economic backdrop? What if a very different surprise was waiting?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但對於經濟背景截然不同的英國來説，情況是否會有所不同？是否會有一個截然不同的驚喜在等待着？</p>
</div><h2>‘Little evidence’ of rate cut eagerness</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>降息意願的 ‘微弱證據’</h2>
</div><p>Nicholas Hyett, an investment manager at UK-based high net-worth investment service Wealth Club, had this to say:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國高淨值投資服務公司 Wealth Club 的投資經理 Nicholas Hyett 表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>Before Christmas, investors had built up a picture of central bankers as trigger happy rate cutters, just waiting for the first excuse to get rates falling once again… [but] there’s little evidence central bankers are rate cut hungry. Rates were unchanged as expected [in the latest BoE decision] but two MPC members voted to increase rates – arguing that monetary policy need to be restrictive for longer to get core inflation back under control.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>在聖誕節之前，投資者對中央銀行家們的印象是他們隨時準備降息，只等着第一個藉口就能再次降低利率……[但] 幾乎沒有證據表明中央銀行家們渴望降息。最新的 BoE 決定中利率如預期保持不變，但有兩位貨幣政策委員會成員投票支持加息，認為貨幣政策需要在更長時間內保持緊縮，以控制核心通脹。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><h2>An 87% disconnect</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>87% 的脱節</h2>
</div><p>The trouble is that the public does not have the same view. New research is finding that UK residents, in fact, think the opposite is true.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於公眾並沒有相同的看法。新的研究發現，英國居民實際上認為情況正好相反。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/unnamed.png"/></p>
<p>Source: The Clifton Private Finance Mortgage Pulse Report 2024</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Clifton Private Finance 抵押貸款脈搏報告 2024</p>
</div><p>In a recent study by Clifton Private Finance, namedThe Clifton Private Finance Mortgage Pulse Report 2024, thousands of visitors to the site were asked in between November 2023 and January 2024 if they believed interest rates would rise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Clifton Private Finance 最近的一項研究中，名為《Clifton Private Finance 抵押貸款脈搏報告 2024》，在 2023 年 11 月至 2024 年 1 月期間，數千名訪問者被問及他們是否認為利率會升高。</p>
</div><p>And what they found was that the vast majority – 87% of all participants – felt strongly that interest rates would either stay the same or drop in the next 12 months. Of these, 62% actively seemed to think rate cuts would happen, while almost 25% felt rates would stay the same.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他們發現，絕大多數參與者——87%——強烈認為利率在接下來的 12 個月內會保持不變或下降。在這些人中，62% 似乎積極認為會降息，而近 25% 認為利率會保持不變。</p>
</div><p>Just 13.4% of respondents were willing to consider the possibility that interest rates might actually rise within the next year, for any reason.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>僅有 13.4% 的受訪者願意考慮在接下來的一年內，出於任何原因，利率可能實際升高的可能性。</p>
</div><h2>After shock</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>震驚之後</h2>
</div><p>A rate hike for the UK rather than cuts later in 2024 would certainly be a surprise to many – and the kind of shock that may send markets into a temporary tailspin. But how likely is this?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 2024 年英國不是降息而是加息，這無疑會讓許多人感到驚訝——這種震驚可能會使市場暫時陷入動盪。但這種情況有多大可能性呢？</p>
</div><p>Central banks have said again and again in recent months that they are willing to ‘turn the whole thing around’ and raise rates again, should they see the slightest sign of inflation rearing its head again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中央銀行在最近幾個月一再表示，如果他們看到通脹再次抬頭的任何微弱跡象，他們願意 “徹底扭轉局面”，再次加息。</p>
</div><p>On February 1st, Governor of the BoE Andrew Bailey said the following at the BoE’s monetary report press conference:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2 月 1 日，英格蘭銀行行長安德魯·貝利在 BoE 的貨幣報告新聞發佈會上表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>If we were to keep Bank Rate at 5.25% for the next three years, we think it is likely that inflation would eventually fall significantly below target. But if we were to follow the market-rate conditioning path [of lowering interest rates], we think inflation would be above target for much of the next three years. We have to keep monetary policy sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long. For how long will a restrictive stance be needed? What level of Bank Rate will be required to deliver it? The answers to those questions will ultimately depend on what the incoming data tell us about the outlook for the UK economy and inflation over the medium term.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>如果我們在接下來的三年內將銀行利率保持在 5.25%，我們認為通脹最終可能會顯著低於目標。但如果我們遵循市場利率的調整路徑 [降低利率]，我們認為通脹在未來三年內大部分時間將高於目標。我們必須在足夠長的時間內保持貨幣政策的緊縮。需要保持緊縮的時間有多長？需要達到什麼水平的銀行利率才能實現這一點？這些問題的答案最終將取決於即將到來的數據告訴我們關於英國經濟和中期通脹的前景。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>In other words: ‘if no external, geopolitical headwinds come again, the way that Russia’s invasion of the Ukraine did the first time, then the chances of us lowering the interest rate in the medium-term look good. If not, we stay as restrictive as ever.’</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>換句話説：‘如果沒有外部的地緣政治逆風再次出現，就像俄羅斯第一次入侵烏克蘭那樣，那麼我們在中期內降低利率的機會看起來不錯。如果沒有，我們將繼續保持緊縮。’</p>
</div><p>The trouble with this is that there are significant headwinds already: the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, which Bailey directly referred to in his same monetary policy report speech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>問題在於，已經存在顯著的逆風：中東持續的危機，貝利在同一貨幣政策報告演講中直接提到過。</p>
</div><h2>The bottom line</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>結論</h2>
</div><p>An interest rate hike from the BoE, instead of the long-awaited rate cuts the rest of the world is banking on, is not out of the realms of possibility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英格蘭銀行加息，而不是世界其他地方期待已久的降息，並不是不可能的。</p>
</div><p>Let’s just hope that, if a hike happens, the shock such an unanticipated decision would have on UK markets wouldn’t push its already-flailing economy too far to see any growth this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們只希望，如果加息發生，這一意外決定對英國市場造成的震驚不會使其已經岌岌可危的經濟在今年無法實現任何增長。</p>
</div><p>The post The odds of a UK rate hike in 2024 - what if 87% of people are wrong? appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本文標題為《2024 年英國加息的可能性 - 如果 87% 的人錯了呢？》，首發於 Invezz。</p>
</div>

2024 年英國加息的幾率——如果 87% 的人都判斷錯誤會怎樣？