<p>要點：</p>
<ul>
<li>Polymarket 賭注網站支持 Warsh 擔任美聯儲主席</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>日本考慮干預以應對日元疲軟</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>高市計劃提前選舉以獲得財政政策支持</li>
</ul>
<p>作者：Karen Brettell</p>
<p>在美國總統唐納德·特朗普在白宮活動中讚揚經濟顧問凱文·哈塞特，並表示他可能希望讓哈塞特繼續擔任現職後，美元在週五上漲，這引發了他不太可能被任命為美聯儲主席的猜測。</p>
<p>&#34;我看到凱文在觀眾中，我只想感謝你。你今天在電視上表現得非常出色。説實話，我實際上想讓你留在你現在的位置上，&#34;特朗普説。</p>
<p>&#34;我們在這個頭條新聞上看到了一些美元買入，因為這強調了美聯儲的決定主要與政治信譽有關，&#34; investingLive 的首席貨幣分析師亞當·巴頓在一份報告中表示。</p>
<p>&#34;在候選人中，哈塞特被視為最不獨立的，這反過來又是最鴿派的，因為特朗普長期以來希望降息，&#34;巴頓説。</p>
<p>特朗普預計將在未來幾周內提名接替傑羅姆·鮑威爾的候選人，鮑威爾的任期將於 5 月結束。該職位的四位主要候選人是哈塞特、美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、前美聯儲理事凱文·沃什和黑石集團的首席債券投資經理裏克·裏德。</p>
<p>賭注網站 Polymarket 顯示沃什現在是獲得該職位的熱門人選。</p>
<p>美元指數衡量美元對包括日元和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的表現，</p>
<p>上漲 0.06% 至 99.41，歐元下跌 0.1% 至 1.1594 美元。該指數在週四達到了 99.49 的六週高點。</p>
<p>本週，美國貨幣受到推動，數據顯示美國勞動力市場改善，這推遲了市場對美聯儲進一步降息的預期，直到 6 月。</p>
<p>美聯儲副主席米歇爾·鮑曼週五表示，脆弱的就業市場可能迅速惡化，這意味着美國中央銀行應隨時準備再次降息。</p>
<p>週五的數據表明，美國工廠生產在 12 月意外增長，主要金屬產量激增抵消了汽車組裝廠的下降，但在進口關税帶來的挑戰背景下，第四季度的活動收縮。</p>
<p>日本警告可能干預日元</p>
<p>在日本財政部長片山薩茂表示東京不會排除任何應對貨幣疲軟的選項，包括與美國的協調幹預後，日元在週五也走強。</p>
<p>週三，日元兑美元貶值至 18 個月低點，原因是人們擔心日本首相高市早苗將有更多空間推出財政擴張政策。</p>
<p>高市計劃在下週解散國會並召開提前選舉，她的政黨秘書長週三表示，她希望獲得公眾對其支出計劃的支持。</p>
<p>“這可能是推動高市交易延續和美元/日元新高的關鍵因素，” 瑞銀的外匯和宏觀策略師瓦西里·謝列布里亞科夫表示。但 “我們必須權衡美元/日元的上行風險與外匯干預的風險。”</p>
<p>日元兑美元上漲 0.3%，至 158.16 日元。</p>
<p>謝列布里亞科夫認為，在 160-162 區間干預的可能性更大。</p>
<p>CIBC 資本市場的 FICC 策略主管諾亞·巴法姆也認為日元可能繼續貶值，指出日本官員尚未表現出完全的緊迫感。</p>

GBTC

<p>在特朗普總統表示他可能會讓經濟顧問凱文·哈塞特繼續擔任現職後，美元走強，減少了市場對哈塞特被任命為美聯儲主席的猜測。美元指數上漲 0.06%，至 99.41，受到積極的勞動力市場數據的支撐。與此同時，日本財政部長警告可能會進行干預以支持日元，日元已貶值至 18 個月低點。日元對美元上漲 0.3%，而比特幣下跌 0.77%，至 94,812 美元</p>

<p>Key points:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>要點：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Polymarket betting site favors Warsh for Fed Chair role</li>
<li>Japan considers intervention to counter yen weakness</li>
<li>Takaichi plans snap election to gain support for fiscal policies</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>Polymarket 賭注網站支持 Warsh 擔任美聯儲主席</li>
</ul>
</div><p>By Karen Brettell</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>日本考慮干預以應對日元疲軟</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The dollar gained on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump praised economic adviser Kevin Hassett at a White House event and said he may want to keep him in his current role, prompting speculation he is less likely to be named as chair of the Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>高市計劃提前選舉以獲得財政政策支持</li>
</ul>
</div><p>&#34;I see Kevin's in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today. I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth,&#34; Trump said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Karen Brettell</p>
</div><p>&#34;We have seen some US dollar buying on this headline, as it underscores that the Fed decision is mostly about political credibility,&#34; Adam Button, chief currency analyst at investingLive, said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美國總統唐納德·特朗普在白宮活動中讚揚經濟顧問凱文·哈塞特，並表示他可能希望讓哈塞特繼續擔任現職後，美元在週五上漲，這引發了他不太可能被任命為美聯儲主席的猜測。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Of the candidates, Hassett is seen as the least independent, which in turn is the most-dovish due to Trump's longstanding desire to cut rates,&#34; Button said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我看到凱文在觀眾中，我只想感謝你。你今天在電視上表現得非常出色。説實話，我實際上想讓你留在你現在的位置上，&#34;特朗普説。</p>
</div><p>Trump is expected to name his candidate to succeed Jerome Powell in the coming weeks, with Powell's term due to end in May. The leading four candidates for the role are Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock's chief bond investment manager Rick Rieder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我們在這個頭條新聞上看到了一些美元買入，因為這強調了美聯儲的決定主要與政治信譽有關，&#34; investingLive 的首席貨幣分析師亞當·巴頓在一份報告中表示。</p>
</div><p>Betting site Polymarket shows that Warsh is now a favorite to get the role.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;在候選人中，哈塞特被視為最不獨立的，這反過來又是最鴿派的，因為特朗普長期以來希望降息，&#34;巴頓説。</p>
</div><p>The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro,</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普預計將在未來幾周內提名接替傑羅姆·鮑威爾的候選人，鮑威爾的任期將於 5 月結束。該職位的四位主要候選人是哈塞特、美聯儲理事克里斯托弗·沃勒、前美聯儲理事凱文·沃什和黑石集團的首席債券投資經理裏克·裏德。</p>
</div><p>rose 0.06% to 99.41, with the euro  down 0.1% at $1.1594. The index reached a six-week high of 99.49 on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>賭注網站 Polymarket 顯示沃什現在是獲得該職位的熱門人選。</p>
</div><p>The U.S. currency has been boosted this week by data showing an improving U.S. labor market, which has pushed back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts until June.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美元指數衡量美元對包括日元和歐元在內的一籃子貨幣的表現，</p>
</div><p>Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said on Friday a fragile job market that could weaken quickly means the U.S. central bank should stand ready to cut interest rates again if needed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上漲 0.06% 至 99.41，歐元下跌 0.1% 至 1.1594 美元。該指數在週四達到了 99.49 的六週高點。</p>
</div><p>Data on Friday showed that U.S. factory production unexpectedly increased in December amid a surge in primary metals output that offset a decline at motor vehicle assembly plants, but activity contracted in the fourth quarter against the backdrop of challenges from import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週，美國貨幣受到推動，數據顯示美國勞動力市場改善，這推遲了市場對美聯儲進一步降息的預期，直到 6 月。</p>
</div><p>JAPAN WARNS ON YEN INTERVENTION</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美聯儲副主席米歇爾·鮑曼週五表示，脆弱的就業市場可能迅速惡化，這意味着美國中央銀行應隨時準備再次降息。</p>
</div><p>The yen was also stronger on Friday after Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said Tokyo would not rule out any options to counter weakness in the currency, including coordinated intervention with the U.S.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週五的數據表明，美國工廠生產在 12 月意外增長，主要金屬產量激增抵消了汽車組裝廠的下降，但在進口關税帶來的挑戰背景下，第四季度的活動收縮。</p>
</div><p>The Japanese currency weakened to an 18-month low against the dollar on Wednesday on concerns that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will have more leeway to introduce fiscally expansionist policies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本警告可能干預日元</p>
</div><p>Takaichi plans to dissolve parliament next week and call a snap parliamentary election, the secretary general of her party said on Wednesday, as she seeks public backing for her spending plans.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在日本財政部長片山薩茂表示東京不會排除任何應對貨幣疲軟的選項，包括與美國的協調幹預後，日元在週五也走強。</p>
</div><p>“That's probably the key factor orchestrating the extension of the Takaichi trade and the new dollar/yen highs,” said Vassili Serebriakov, an FX and macro strategist at UBS. But “we have to weigh the upside in dollar/yen against risks of FX intervention.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>週三，日元兑美元貶值至 18 個月低點，原因是人們擔心日本首相高市早苗將有更多空間推出財政擴張政策。</p>
</div><p>The Japanese yen  strengthened 0.3% against the greenback to 158.16 per dollar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高市計劃在下週解散國會並召開提前選舉，她的政黨秘書長週三表示，她希望獲得公眾對其支出計劃的支持。</p>
</div><p>Serebriakov sees an intervention as more likely in the 160-162 area.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“這可能是推動高市交易延續和美元/日元新高的關鍵因素，” 瑞銀的外匯和宏觀策略師瓦西里·謝列布里亞科夫表示。但 “我們必須權衡美元/日元的上行風險與外匯干預的風險。”</p>
</div><p>Noah Buffam, director in FICC strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, also sees potential for the yen to continue to weaken, noting that Japanese officials are not yet showing full urgency in their warnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日元兑美元上漲 0.3%，至 158.16 日元。</p>
</div><p>Some Bank of Japan policymakers also see scope to raise interest rates sooner than markets expect with April a distinct possibility, as a sliding yen risks adding to already broadening inflationary pressure, four sources familiar with its thinking said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>謝列布里亞科夫認為，在 160-162 區間干預的可能性更大。</p>
</div><p>In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin  fell 0.77% to $94,812.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CIBC 資本市場的 FICC 策略主管諾亞·巴法姆也認為日元可能繼續貶值，指出日本官員尚未表現出完全的緊迫感。</p>
</div>

由於哈塞特被任命為美聯儲主席的幾率下降，美元走強