<p>去年主要是抵押貸款利率下降，英格蘭銀行進行了四次降息，將基準利率從年初的 4.75% 降至 12 月的 3.75%。大多數情況下，抵押貸款機構也相應降低了他們的利率。</p>
<p>2026 年抵押貸款市場將會怎樣更難預測：利率會繼續下降嗎？可負擔性標準會放寬嗎？抵押貸款市場將如何支持首次購房者？我們與五位抵押貸款專家進行了交談，瞭解他們對產品、利率和市場整體情況的看法。</p>
<h2>1. 英格蘭銀行的兩次降息</h2>
<p>在 2025 年多次降息後，大家一致認為今年的降息次數會減少，我們的專家預測在一到兩次之間。“我預計英格蘭銀行今年會進行兩次降息：一次在春季大約四月，另一次在年底。由於經濟疲軟和通脹緩解，” 埃弗里斯抵押貸款服務公司的董事約翰·埃弗里斯表示。</p>
<p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>關於第二抵押貸款你需要知道的一切</strong></p>
<p>“我們預計到年底英格蘭銀行會再降息兩次，” Tembo 的創始人兼首席執行官理查德·達納表示。“然而，放鬆的速度可能會是漸進的，因為最近的數據表明，經濟在通脹和增長方面看起來更具韌性。”</p>
<p>維利爾斯公司的創始人妮可·扎利斯則更加謹慎，預測可能會有一次降息而不是兩次。“市場預測會有一次明確的降息，第二次降息的可能性為 30%。雖然利率可能會放鬆，但我們不太可能很快回到超低借貸的狀態，” 她説。</p>
<h2>2. 針對特定羣體放寬可負擔性標準</h2>
<p>在 2025 年底，貸款機構普遍放寬了可負擔性標準，儘管這一趨勢在 2026 年將繼續，但我們的專家認為這將限於特定借款人。</p>
<p>“我們已經看到某些羣體的資格標準在放寬，包括自僱借款人和外國國籍人士，” 達納表示。“與其對所有人進行普遍放寬，更可能的是我們會看到有針對性的靈活性，貸款機構會調整他們的標準，以更好地反映現代工作模式和更為多樣化的借款人基礎。”</p>
<p>“一般來説，我預計對於收入穩定的專業人士（如教師、NHS 工作人員、公務員）、擁有 2-3 年清晰一致賬目的自僱借款人以及有保留利潤的有限責任公司董事，會有一些放寬，” 扎利斯表示。</p>
<p>埃弗里斯表示同意，並指出他聽説有一家貸款機構將 “為教師和教育專業人士提供七倍於他們收入的貸款，這在以前是聞所未聞的”。</p>
<p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>如何減少你的印花税賬單</strong></p>
<h2>3. 更加細緻的承保</h2>
<p>近年來，承保變得更加個性化和有針對性是另一個增長趨勢。潛在借款人不太可能因一般原因被貸款機構拒絕，例如自僱或收入未達到所需的倍數。</p>
<p>“在資格方面，我們預計貸款機構將繼續謹慎地擴大准入，但以有針對性的方式，” 肖布魯克零售抵押貸款的商業總監史蒂夫·格里菲斯表示。“像首次購房者和自僱人士這樣的特定羣體可能會受益最多，承保將更加細緻，更好地反映現實收入和可負擔性。”</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48"/></p>
<p>專家們一致認為，今年英格蘭銀行的降息次數會減少，預測在一到兩次之間。</p>
<h2>4. 更多的僅付息產品</h2>
<p>房價停滯、可負擔性標準更嚴格以及越來越多房東的退出，使得僅付息抵押貸款在近年來失寵。</p>
<p>埃弗里斯認為，2026 年可能會出現反轉，提供更多選擇。“我們可能會看到貸款機構提供更多僅付息的選項，而這些選項在此之前是很難獲得的。這些產品主要面向年收入在 75,000 到 100,000 英鎊的高收入者，以便更廣泛地獲取這些產品，以及擁有強大股權的借款人。” 可負擔性壓力測試的放鬆也是這一趨勢的原因。</p>
<h2>5. 固定利率主導市場</h2>
<p>根據英國金融機構的數據，2025 年固定利率抵押貸款佔英國抵押貸款的 85%，這種主導地位看起來將繼續。“借款人對固定利率抵押貸款的偏好依然強烈。固定的月供提供了穩定性，使家庭預算更容易，這是大多數家庭的重要考慮因素，” Together 的董事斯科特·克萊表示。</p>
<p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>“房地產投資的黃金時代” 結束了嗎？</strong></p>
<p>“也就是説，隨着利率繼續下降，浮動利率或跟蹤產品可能會變得更具吸引力。我們可能會看到顧問更頻繁地推薦這些選項，特別是對於抵押貸款餘額較小的老年借款人，他們對利率波動的暴露較少。”</p>
<h2>6. 關注首次購房者</h2>
<p>在 11 月的預算中沒有首次購房者的倡議，但儘管如此，我們的專家預測 2026 年將是首次購房者的好年。“我們預計這將是首次購房者的豐收年，” 達納表示。“隨着利率的放鬆和可負擔性的改善，過去幾年推遲購房的人們有着顯著的被壓抑的需求。”</p>
<p>我們的專家預測，與其用新產品吸引首次購房者，不如對現有抵押貸款給予更多的關注。</p>
<p>“我們更可能看到對現有抵押貸款產品的改進，而不是引人注目的重大創新，” Griffiths 説。“對於首次購房者，這可能意味着更靈活的可負擔能力評估、更高的收入倍數以及旨在幫助租户邁出第一步的產品。”</p>
<p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>從游泳池和水療中心到雙廚房，房地產開發商是否走得太遠？</strong></p>
<h2>7. 創新小眾產品</h2>
<p>然而，抵押貸款市場在小型小眾產品方面可能會創新。“我們已經看到一家大型貸款機構在買房出租領域推出了針對 HMO 有限公司的跟蹤抵押貸款，這是我在過去 10 年中未見過的，” Everest 説。</p>
<p>“我預測我們將看到綠色抵押貸款的創新（針對 EPC A-C 物業提供稍微更好的利率或費用）以及更多長期固定利率（10-15 年），旨在穩定而非便宜的頭條利率，” Zalys 補充道。</p>
<p>Griffiths 也同意綠色抵押貸款將在 2026 年的市場中佔據一席之地，“但迄今為止的接受度表明，貸款機構可能更關注實用激勵措施，例如針對能源改善的現金返還，而不是全新的綠色產品。”</p>
<h2>8. 秋季抵押貸款交易</h2>
<p>許多人在獲取抵押貸款的時機上沒有太多選擇：要麼是在當前交易結束時，要麼如果他們是首次購房者，則是在找到要購買的房產時。然而，如果在何時可以更換或進入新的抵押貸款交易上有一些餘地，那麼在接下來的 12 個月中你應該瞄準什麼時候呢？</p>
<p>“今年獲得抵押貸款的最佳時機是在 9 月和 10 月之間，” Everest 説。“到那時，我們將討論第二次降息，這可能會在貸款機構的固定利率中考慮到這一點。”</p>
<p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong></p>
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<p>專家預測，到 2026 年，抵押貸款市場將迎來一到兩次英格蘭銀行的降息，重點是放寬對自僱借款人等特定羣體的可負擔性標準。信貸審核預計將變得更加細緻，有利於首次購房者。僅付利息的產品可能會增加供應，而固定利率抵押貸款預計將繼續主導市場。儘管預算中沒有新的首次購房者倡議，但對這一羣體的支持預計將增加。總體而言，市場預計將適應不斷變化的經濟條件和借款人的需求</p>

<p>Last year was all about mortgage rates coming down, with four Bank of England cuts, taking the base rate from 4.75% at the beginning of the year, to 3.75% by December. For the most part, mortgage lenders responded by reducing their rates too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>去年主要是抵押貸款利率下降，英格蘭銀行進行了四次降息，將基準利率從年初的 4.75% 降至 12 月的 3.75%。大多數情況下，抵押貸款機構也相應降低了他們的利率。</p>
</div><p>What 2026 will hold for the mortgage market is more difficult to predict: will rates continue with their downward trajectory? Will the affordability criteria be relaxed? How will the mortgage market support first-time buyers? We spoke to five mortgage experts to get their take on what will happen to products, rates and the market in general.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2026 年抵押貸款市場將會怎樣更難預測：利率會繼續下降嗎？可負擔性標準會放寬嗎？抵押貸款市場將如何支持首次購房者？我們與五位抵押貸款專家進行了交談，瞭解他們對產品、利率和市場整體情況的看法。</p>
</div><h2>1. Two Bank of England rate cuts</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>1. 英格蘭銀行的兩次降息</h2>
</div><p>After the multiple rate cuts of 2025, everyone agrees there will be fewer this year, with our experts predicting between one and two. “I expect the Bank of England will go for two rate cuts this year: one in the spring around April and one at the end of the year. Due to the economy weakening and inflation easing,” says John Everest, director at Everest Mortgage Services.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年多次降息後，大家一致認為今年的降息次數會減少，我們的專家預測在一到兩次之間。“我預計英格蘭銀行今年會進行兩次降息：一次在春季大約四月，另一次在年底。由於經濟疲軟和通脹緩解，” 埃弗里斯抵押貸款服務公司的董事約翰·埃弗里斯表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>Everything you need to know about second charge mortgages</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>關於第二抵押貸款你需要知道的一切</strong></p>
</div><p>“We expect around two further rate cuts from the Bank of England by the end of the year,” says Richard Dana, founder and CEO of Tembo. “However, the pace of easing is likely to be gradual, as recent data suggests the economy is looking more resilient when it comes to both inflation and growth.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們預計到年底英格蘭銀行會再降息兩次，” Tembo 的創始人兼首席執行官理查德·達納表示。“然而，放鬆的速度可能會是漸進的，因為最近的數據表明，經濟在通脹和增長方面看起來更具韌性。”</p>
</div><p>Nicole Zalys, founder at Villiers &amp; Co, was more restrained and predicted there was more likely to be one cut than two. “Markets are predicting one definite cut and a 30% chance of a second cut happening. While rates should likely ease, we’re unlikely to return to ultra-cheap borrowing anytime soon,” she says.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>維利爾斯公司的創始人妮可·扎利斯則更加謹慎，預測可能會有一次降息而不是兩次。“市場預測會有一次明確的降息，第二次降息的可能性為 30%。雖然利率可能會放鬆，但我們不太可能很快回到超低借貸的狀態，” 她説。</p>
</div><h2>2. Affordability criteria relaxed for certain groups</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>2. 針對特定羣體放寬可負擔性標準</h2>
</div><p>At the end of 2025, lenders were easing their affordability criteria across the board and, while this will continue in 2026, our experts believe it will be limited to particular borrowers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2025 年底，貸款機構普遍放寬了可負擔性標準，儘管這一趨勢在 2026 年將繼續，但我們的專家認為這將限於特定借款人。</p>
</div><p>“We’re already seeing eligibility criteria soften for certain groups, including self-employed borrowers and foreign nationals,” says Dana. “Rather than a blanket loosening for everyone, it’s more likely we’ll see targeted flexibility, where lenders refine their criteria to better reflect modern working patterns and a more diverse borrower base.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們已經看到某些羣體的資格標準在放寬，包括自僱借款人和外國國籍人士，” 達納表示。“與其對所有人進行普遍放寬，更可能的是我們會看到有針對性的靈活性，貸款機構會調整他們的標準，以更好地反映現代工作模式和更為多樣化的借款人基礎。”</p>
</div><p>“In general, I would expect some softening for professionals with stable incomes (teachers, NHS, civil servants), self-employed borrowers with 2–3 years of clean, consistent accounts, and limited company directors with retained profits,” says Zalys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“一般來説，我預計對於收入穩定的專業人士（如教師、NHS 工作人員、公務員）、擁有 2-3 年清晰一致賬目的自僱借款人以及有保留利潤的有限責任公司董事，會有一些放寬，” 扎利斯表示。</p>
</div><p>Everest agrees and flags that he’s heard of a lender that will “offer teachers and educational professionals seven times their income, which is unheard of until now”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃弗里斯表示同意，並指出他聽説有一家貸款機構將 “為教師和教育專業人士提供七倍於他們收入的貸款，這在以前是聞所未聞的”。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>How to reduce your stamp duty bill</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>如何減少你的印花税賬單</strong></p>
</div><h2>3. More nuanced underwriting</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>3. 更加細緻的承保</h2>
</div><p>Another trend which has been growing in previous years is underwriting becoming more personal and targeted. Would-be borrowers are less likely to be rejected by a lender for a general reason, for example being self-employed or because their income doesn’t quite make up the necessary multiples needed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近年來，承保變得更加個性化和有針對性是另一個增長趨勢。潛在借款人不太可能因一般原因被貸款機構拒絕，例如自僱或收入未達到所需的倍數。</p>
</div><p>“When it comes to eligibility, we expect lenders to continue cautiously broadening access, but in a targeted way,” says Steve Griffiths, commercial director of retail mortgages at Shawbrook. “Certain groups such as first-time buyers and the self-employed are likely to benefit most, with more nuanced underwriting that better reflects real-world income and affordability.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“在資格方面，我們預計貸款機構將繼續謹慎地擴大准入，但以有針對性的方式，” 肖布魯克零售抵押貸款的商業總監史蒂夫·格里菲斯表示。“像首次購房者和自僱人士這樣的特定羣體可能會受益最多，承保將更加細緻，更好地反映現實收入和可負擔性。”</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48" alt="" original-src="https://s.yimg.com/ny/api/res/1.2/wNGUIN0r5.5SA4vPzGzWEw--/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTY0MA--/https://s.yimg.com/os/creatr-uploaded-images/2022-01/4ee43540-7233-11ec-bdf6-161a569a9b48"/></p>
<p>Experts agree there will be fewer BoE rate cuts this year, predicting between one and two.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>專家們一致認為，今年英格蘭銀行的降息次數會減少，預測在一到兩次之間。</p>
</div><h2>4. More interest-only products</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>4. 更多的僅付息產品</h2>
</div><p>House price stagnation, stricter affordability criteria and the exit of an increasing number of landlords, has seen interest-only mortgages fall out of favour in recent years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房價停滯、可負擔性標準更嚴格以及越來越多房東的退出，使得僅付息抵押貸款在近年來失寵。</p>
</div><p>Everest believes that 2026 might see a reversal with more of a selection on offer. “We could see more interest-only options from lenders, which up until now are difficult to obtain. These products are aimed at higher earners, generally of £75,000 to £100,000, to access these broadly and [those with] strong equity.” The relaxation of affordability stress tests is also behind this trend.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>埃弗里斯認為，2026 年可能會出現反轉，提供更多選擇。“我們可能會看到貸款機構提供更多僅付息的選項，而這些選項在此之前是很難獲得的。這些產品主要面向年收入在 75,000 到 100,000 英鎊的高收入者，以便更廣泛地獲取這些產品，以及擁有強大股權的借款人。” 可負擔性壓力測試的放鬆也是這一趨勢的原因。</p>
</div><h2>5. Fixed rates to dominate market</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>5. 固定利率主導市場</h2>
</div><p>In 2025, according to UK Finance, fixed-rate mortgages accounted for 85% of UK mortgages and that dominance looks likely to continue. “Borrower preference for fixed-rate mortgages remains strong. Fixed monthly payments provide stability and make household budgeting easier, which is a key consideration for most families,” says Scott Clay, director at Together.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據英國金融機構的數據，2025 年固定利率抵押貸款佔英國抵押貸款的 85%，這種主導地位看起來將繼續。“借款人對固定利率抵押貸款的偏好依然強烈。固定的月供提供了穩定性，使家庭預算更容易，這是大多數家庭的重要考慮因素，” Together 的董事斯科特·克萊表示。</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>Is the ‘golden age of property investing’ over?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>“房地產投資的黃金時代” 結束了嗎？</strong></p>
</div><p>“That said, as rates continue to fall, variable or tracker products may become more attractive. We could see advisers recommending these options more frequently, particularly for older borrowers with smaller mortgage balances who are less exposed to interest rate fluctuations.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“也就是説，隨着利率繼續下降，浮動利率或跟蹤產品可能會變得更具吸引力。我們可能會看到顧問更頻繁地推薦這些選項，特別是對於抵押貸款餘額較小的老年借款人，他們對利率波動的暴露較少。”</p>
</div><h2>6. Focus on FTBs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>6. 關注首次購房者</h2>
</div><p>There were no First-Time Buyer initiatives in the November budget but, despite this, our experts predict 2026 will be a good year for those starting out on the housing ladder. “We expect this to be a bumper year for first-time buyers,” says Dana. “With interest rates easing and affordability improving, there is significant pent-up demand from people who have delayed buying over the past couple of years.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 11 月的預算中沒有首次購房者的倡議，但儘管如此，我們的專家預測 2026 年將是首次購房者的好年。“我們預計這將是首次購房者的豐收年，” 達納表示。“隨着利率的放鬆和可負擔性的改善，過去幾年推遲購房的人們有着顯著的被壓抑的需求。”</p>
</div><p>Rather than wooing FTBs with new products, our experts predict that they’ll be looked on more favourably for existing mortgages.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我們的專家預測，與其用新產品吸引首次購房者，不如對現有抵押貸款給予更多的關注。</p>
</div><p>“We’re more likely to see refinements to existing mortgage products rather than big headline-grabbing innovations,” says Griffiths. “For first-time buyers, that could mean more flexible affordability assessments, higher income multiples and products designed to help renters take the first step onto the ladder.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我們更可能看到對現有抵押貸款產品的改進，而不是引人注目的重大創新，” Griffiths 説。“對於首次購房者，這可能意味着更靈活的可負擔能力評估、更高的收入倍數以及旨在幫助租户邁出第一步的產品。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong> <strong>From swimming pools and spas to dual kitchens, have property developers gone too far?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong> <strong>從游泳池和水療中心到雙廚房，房地產開發商是否走得太遠？</strong></p>
</div><h2>7. Innovative niche products</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>7. 創新小眾產品</h2>
</div><p>The mortgage market is likely to innovate when it comes to smaller, niche products, however. “We've already seen a big lender in the buy-to-let space launch tracker mortgages for HMO limited companies which I’ve not seen in the past 10 years,” says Everest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，抵押貸款市場在小型小眾產品方面可能會創新。“我們已經看到一家大型貸款機構在買房出租領域推出了針對 HMO 有限公司的跟蹤抵押貸款，這是我在過去 10 年中未見過的，” Everest 説。</p>
</div><p>“I predict we will see innovations with green mortgages (slightly better rates or fees for EPC A–C properties) and more long-term fixes (10-15 years) aimed at stability rather than cheap headline rates,” adds Zalys.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“我預測我們將看到綠色抵押貸款的創新（針對 EPC A-C 物業提供稍微更好的利率或費用）以及更多長期固定利率（10-15 年），旨在穩定而非便宜的頭條利率，” Zalys 補充道。</p>
</div><p>Griffiths also agrees that green mortgages will feature in the 2026 market “but uptake so far suggests lenders may focus more on practical incentives such as cashback for energy improvements rather than entirely new green products”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Griffiths 也同意綠色抵押貸款將在 2026 年的市場中佔據一席之地，“但迄今為止的接受度表明，貸款機構可能更關注實用激勵措施，例如針對能源改善的現金返還，而不是全新的綠色產品。”</p>
</div><h2>8. Autumn mortgage deals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>8. 秋季抵押貸款交易</h2>
</div><p>Many people don’t have much of a choice when it comes to the timing of getting a mortgage: either it’s at the end of their current deal or, if they’re a first-time buyer, when they’ve found a property to purchase. However, if there is some leeway in when you can swap or enter into a new mortgage deal, when should you aim for over the next 12 months?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>許多人在獲取抵押貸款的時機上沒有太多選擇：要麼是在當前交易結束時，要麼如果他們是首次購房者，則是在找到要購買的房產時。然而，如果在何時可以更換或進入新的抵押貸款交易上有一些餘地，那麼在接下來的 12 個月中你應該瞄準什麼時候呢？</p>
</div><p>“The best time to get a mortgage this year would be between September and October,” says Everest. “By then, we’ll be talking about a second rate cut and this could be factored into the lenders fix rates prior to that happening.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“今年獲得抵押貸款的最佳時機是在 9 月和 10 月之間，” Everest 説。“到那時，我們將討論第二次降息，這可能會在貸款機構的固定利率中考慮到這一點。”</p>
</div><p><strong>Read more:</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>閲讀更多：</strong></p>
</div><ul>
<li>How you can still make money from flipping property</li>
<li>What are branded residences and who’s buying them?</li>
<li>The pros and cons of buying property off-plan</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如何通過翻轉房產仍然賺錢</li>
<li>什麼是品牌住宅，誰在購買它們？</li>
<li>購買期房的利弊</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong><em>Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for</em></strong> <strong><em>Apple</em></strong> <strong><em>and</em></strong> <strong><em>Android</em></strong> <strong><em>.</em></strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong><em>下載 Yahoo Finance 應用程序，適用於</em></strong> <strong><em>Apple</em></strong> <strong><em>和</em></strong> <strong><em>Android</em></strong> <strong><em>.</em></strong></p>
</div>

2026 年抵押貸款的八大預測