<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcxZjcz10aW55c3JnYhZoPTc1MBZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcxZjcz10aW55c3JnYhZoPTc1MBZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
<p><strong>美國加大了確保格林蘭的國家安全努力，儘管其在該地區的存在已減少。</strong> 最新的嘗試包括威脅對幾國徵收 10% 的關税，預計下個月開始，6 月將上升至 25%。這對許多歐盟國家來説太過分了，正在考慮一些報復措施。本週晚些時候將舉行緊急領導人峯會。特朗普總統似乎正在利用《國際緊急經濟權力法》來發出這一威脅。具有諷刺意味的是，最高法院可能在本週晚些時候裁定其使用的合法性。政府確保格林蘭的努力也引發了兩黨的反對。今天是美國的國定假日，市場休市。請注意，週三，最高法院將聽取總統試圖解僱聯邦儲備委員會理事庫克的上訴。</p>
<p><strong>美元交易偏重，股市大多下跌。</strong> 日本下個月確認舉行快選後，JGB 的拋售似乎沒有蔓延並引發全球走勢。與週末前的猜測相反，今天似乎沒有日本對匯率進行干預。美國與歐洲之間的緊張局勢助推了貴金屬的上漲。很難看到除了俄羅斯和中國以外的緊張局勢受益者。</p>
<h3><strong>價格</strong></h3>
<p>G10</p>
<p>• <strong>歐元</strong> 上週以疲軟的姿態收盤，低於 1.16 美元，今天早盤進一步下滑至 1.1575 美元以下。自去年 11 月底以來未曾出現這種情況。然而，隨着美元負面發展的被認可，歐元完全恢復。歐元在達到 1.1640 美元后停滯。週末前的高點略高於 1.1625 美元，收盤高於此將完成表面看似看漲的技術外部日。今天到期的 2.1 歐元期權在 1.1585 美元。</p>
<p>• 在週末前，美元回落至接近 <strong>JPY157.80</strong>，今天略微延續至 JPY157.45。上週的低點約為 JPY157.50。然而，自低點記錄以來，美元反彈至接近 JPY158.15 的會話高點。其恢復似乎與高市長高市長呼籲傳聞中的快選有關，定於 2 月 8 日。財政政策仍然是她的主導，並表示她打算維持兩年內不對食品徵收銷售税的承諾。估計這可能會花費約 JPY5 萬億（316 億美元）。</p>
<p>• <strong>英鎊</strong> 在週末前低點（1.3365 美元）上方開盤幾點，迅速下跌至接近 1.3330 美元，然後趨於穩定。1.3300 美元區域大致是英鎊自去年 11 月 21 日低點（約 1.3040 美元）到上個月初高點（約 1.3570 美元）反彈的中點。英鎊恢復並略微超過上週五的高點（約 1.3415 美元）。收盤高於此及 200 日移動平均線（約 1.3405 美元）將顯得積極。</p>
<p>• <strong>加元</strong> 在週末前被拋售至自去年 12 月以來的最低水平，但今天趨於穩定。上週五美元接近 CAD1.3930，但回落至接近 CAD1.3885 的週末前低點。圖表支撐略低於 CAD1.3880，突破 CAD1.3850 可能增強對美元高位的信心。</p>
<p>• 在連續第三個交易日中，<strong>澳元</strong> 被限制在大約 0.6665 到 0.6710 的區間內。日常動量指標正在下降，但收盤高於 0.6700 將是有利的，自上週一以來未能做到這一點。然而，0.6715-30 區域的阻力可能是更為嚴峻的障礙。</p>
<p>EM</p>
<p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 在安靜的交易中小幅上漲至新高，但在歐洲活動中略微下滑。美元達到了自 2024 年 7 月以來的最低水平，接近 MXN17.61。隨後回升至約 MXN17.67。上週五的高點略高於 MXN17.73。</p>
<p>• 中國人民銀行今天將美元的參考匯率設定為 <strong>CNY7.0051</strong>，為 2023 年 5 月以來的最低水平。美元滑落至約 CNH6.9550。市場上已經有幾個月的討論稱中國官員正在引導匯率朝 CNY7.0 靠攏。幾乎已經實現。</p>
<p>• <strong>印度盧比</strong> 連續第三個交易日下跌。美元達到了 INR91.00。上個月創下的歷史高點約為 INR91.0835。外國銀行和印度進口商一直在購買美元。</p>
<h3><strong>其他市場</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>股市</strong> 今天表現艱難，儘管中國大陸股票、台灣和韓國等大型交易所逆勢而上。歐洲的 Stoxx 600 下跌 1.4%，如果持續將是自 11 月中旬以來的最大跌幅。美國指數期貨下跌 1.0%-1.5%。</p>
<p>• <strong>基準 10 年期收益率：</strong> 日本的選舉公告使 10 年期 JGB 收益率幾乎跳升八個基點至 2.25%。歐洲收益率大多窄幅混合。在期貨交易中，儘管 JGB 收益率上漲，美國收益率也在下降。</p>
<p>• <strong>黃金</strong> 和白銀的價格已達到創紀錄高位。黃金達到了 4690 美元，現在接近 4967 美元。白銀突破 94 美元，現在接近 93.30 美元。</p>
<p>• 3 月 <strong>WTI</strong> 輕油回落至五天低點，約為 58.55 美元。週末前的低點接近 58.80 美元，現在徘徊在該區域。</p>
<h3><strong>數據</strong></h3>
<p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天公佈了 12 月的消費者物價指數（CPI）。考慮到基數效應，彭博社調查中 0.2% 的中位數預測下降將使得同比增速保持在 2.2%。核心通脹率較為堅挺（11 月為 2.8%），但中央銀行行長麥克勒姆表示官員們認為核心通脹率有些被誇大。中央銀行上個月表示不確定下一次利率調整的時機。市場相信中央銀行在上半年將保持觀望。掉期市場預計在年底前加息的概率約為 60%。</p>
<p>• <strong>日本</strong> 報告 11 月核心機械訂單下降 11%，抵消了 10 月 7.0% 的增長。此次下降約為彭博社調查中經濟學家預測的兩倍。11 月工業產出的最終讀數修正了之前的低迷，初步估計為下降 2.7%，而非 2.6%。這之前 10 月增長了 1.5%。第三季度工業產出略有下滑。服務業指數在 11 月下降 0.2%，而 10 月增長了 0.8%。第三季度累計增長 0.1%。日本銀行將在本週末召開會議，但官員們並未為市場準備任何政策變動，掉期市場對其維持現狀充滿信心。</p>
<p>• <strong>中國</strong> 報告稱，世界第二大經濟體在 2025 年第四季度增長了 1.2%，同比增速為 4.5%。12 月的具體數據喜憂參半。從同比來看，零售銷售增速從 1.3% 放緩至 0.9%，為疫情以來的最低水平，而工業產出從 11 月的 4.8% 上升至 5.2%，為三個月以來的最好表現。固定資產投資在年初至今的同比基礎上收縮了 3.8%，而第三季度下降為 2.6%。住宅銷售在同一基礎上持續下滑，而新房和二手房價格自 2023 年 4 月以來持續走軟，上次上漲是在 2021 年中期。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者：</em></p>
<p>未來一週：自聖誕節以來美元的上漲修正可能進入最後階段</p>
<p>美元本週表現疲軟，但仍在整合區間內</p>
<p>美元堅挺但正在整合中</p>

<p>美國正在加大力度確保格林蘭的國家安全，威脅對多個歐盟國家徵收 10% 的關税，並將在 6 月前提升至 25%。這引發了歐盟可能的報復以及國家緊急峯會。在這些緊張局勢下，美元交易走低，而貴金屬價格上漲。歐元在 1.16 美元左右波動，加元在觸及低點後趨於穩定。全球股市下跌，歐洲股票大幅下滑。日本即將舉行的快閃選舉以及歐洲債券收益率的混合情況進一步複雜化了局勢</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/6801639/pexels-photo-6801639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p><strong>The US stepped up its attempt to secure Greenland for national security purposes, even though it has reduced its presence there.</strong> The latest attempt included a threat to impose 10% tariffs on several EU countries starting next month and would rise to 25% in June. This is too much for many EU countries and some retaliation is being considered. An emergency leader summit will be held later this week. President Trump appears to be using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to authority to make the threat. Ironically, the Supreme Court could rule on the legality of its use later this week. The administration’s effort to secure Greenland also is spurring bipartisan opposition. Today is a national holiday in the US and the markets are closed. Note the Wednesday, the Supreme Court will hear the appeal on the president’s effort to fire Governor Cook from the Federal Reserve Board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美國加大了確保格林蘭的國家安全努力，儘管其在該地區的存在已減少。</strong> 最新的嘗試包括威脅對幾國徵收 10% 的關税，預計下個月開始，6 月將上升至 25%。這對許多歐盟國家來説太過分了，正在考慮一些報復措施。本週晚些時候將舉行緊急領導人峯會。特朗普總統似乎正在利用《國際緊急經濟權力法》來發出這一威脅。具有諷刺意味的是，最高法院可能在本週晚些時候裁定其使用的合法性。政府確保格林蘭的努力也引發了兩黨的反對。今天是美國的國定假日，市場休市。請注意，週三，最高法院將聽取總統試圖解僱聯邦儲備委員會理事庫克的上訴。</p>
</div><p><strong>The dollar has trading with a heavier bias and equities are mostly lower.</strong> The sell-off in JGBs following confirmation of a snap election in Japan next month does not appear to be spilled over and to spur a global move. Contrary to the pre-weekend speculation, there did not appear to be Japanese intervention on the exchange rate today. The heightened tensions between the US and Europe have helped lift the precious metals. It is hard to see the beneficiaries of the tension outside of Russia and China.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>美元交易偏重，股市大多下跌。</strong> 日本下個月確認舉行快選後，JGB 的拋售似乎沒有蔓延並引發全球走勢。與週末前的猜測相反，今天似乎沒有日本對匯率進行干預。美國與歐洲之間的緊張局勢助推了貴金屬的上漲。很難看到除了俄羅斯和中國以外的緊張局勢受益者。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Prices</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>價格</strong></h3>
</div><p>G10</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>G10</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>euro</strong> settled last week on a soft note, below $1.16 and eased below $1.1575 in early dealings today. It has not been here since the end of last November. However, the euro recovered fully as the dollar-negativity of the developments was appreciated. The euro reached $1.1640 before stalling. The pre-weekend high was a little above $1.1625, and a close above there complete the ostensibly bullish technical outside day. Options for 2.1 euros at $1.1585 expire today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>歐元</strong> 上週以疲軟的姿態收盤，低於 1.16 美元，今天早盤進一步下滑至 1.1575 美元以下。自去年 11 月底以來未曾出現這種情況。然而，隨着美元負面發展的被認可，歐元完全恢復。歐元在達到 1.1640 美元后停滯。週末前的高點略高於 1.1625 美元，收盤高於此將完成表面看似看漲的技術外部日。今天到期的 2.1 歐元期權在 1.1585 美元。</p>
</div><p>• The dollar’s pullback seen before the weekend to almost <strong>JPY157.80</strong> was extended slightly through JPY157.45 today. Last week’s low was about JPY157.50. However, since the low was recorded the dollar rebounded to the session high near JPY158.15. Its recovery appeared linked to Prime Minister Takaichi calling for the much-rumored snap election for February 8. Fiscal policy remains her lead and has signaled her intention to maintain her commitment not to apply the sales tax on food for two years. Estimates suggest it could cost around JPY5 trillion ($31.6 bln).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在週末前，美元回落至接近 <strong>JPY157.80</strong>，今天略微延續至 JPY157.45。上週的低點約為 JPY157.50。然而，自低點記錄以來，美元反彈至接近 JPY158.15 的會話高點。其恢復似乎與高市長高市長呼籲傳聞中的快選有關，定於 2 月 8 日。財政政策仍然是她的主導，並表示她打算維持兩年內不對食品徵收銷售税的承諾。估計這可能會花費約 JPY5 萬億（316 億美元）。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Sterling</strong> opened a few ticks above the pre-weekend low ($1.3365) and quickly dropped to nearly $1.3330 before steadying. The $1.3300 area is roughly the halfway point of sterling’s rally from last November 21 low (~$1.3040) to a high early last month (~$!.3570). Sterling recovery and rose slightly through last Friday’s high (~$1.3415). A close above there and the 200-day moving average (~$1.3405) would appear constructive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>英鎊</strong> 在週末前低點（1.3365 美元）上方開盤幾點，迅速下跌至接近 1.3330 美元，然後趨於穩定。1.3300 美元區域大致是英鎊自去年 11 月 21 日低點（約 1.3040 美元）到上個月初高點（約 1.3570 美元）反彈的中點。英鎊恢復並略微超過上週五的高點（約 1.3415 美元）。收盤高於此及 200 日移動平均線（約 1.3405 美元）將顯得積極。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Canadian dollar</strong> was sold to its lowest level before the weekend since early December, but it has steadied today. The US dollar reached nearly CAD1.3930 last Friday but returned to the pre-weekend low near CAD1.3885. Chart support is seen slightly below CAD1.3880, and a break of CAD1.3850 could boost confidence a greenback high may be in place.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>加元</strong> 在週末前被拋售至自去年 12 月以來的最低水平，但今天趨於穩定。上週五美元接近 CAD1.3930，但回落至接近 CAD1.3885 的週末前低點。圖表支撐略低於 CAD1.3880，突破 CAD1.3850 可能增強對美元高位的信心。</p>
</div><p>• For the third consecutive session, the <strong>Australian dollar</strong> has been confined to a roughly $0.6665 to $0.6710 range. The daily momentum indicators are falling but a close above $0.6700, which it has not been able to do since last Monday, would be helpful. However, resistance in the $0.6715-30 area may be the more formidable hurdle.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 在連續第三個交易日中，<strong>澳元</strong> 被限制在大約 0.6665 到 0.6710 的區間內。日常動量指標正在下降，但收盤高於 0.6700 將是有利的，自上週一以來未能做到這一點。然而，0.6715-30 區域的阻力可能是更為嚴峻的障礙。</p>
</div><p>EM</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>EM</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Mexican peso</strong> edged to a new high today in quiet turnover but has pushed slightly lower in European activity. The dollar reached its lowest level since July 2024 near MXN17.61. It recovered to around MXN17.67. Last Friday’s high was a little above MXN17.73.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>墨西哥比索</strong> 在安靜的交易中小幅上漲至新高，但在歐洲活動中略微下滑。美元達到了自 2024 年 7 月以來的最低水平，接近 MXN17.61。隨後回升至約 MXN17.67。上週五的高點略高於 MXN17.73。</p>
</div><p>• The PBOC set the dollar’s reference rate at <strong>CNY7.0051</strong> today, its lowest level since May 2023. The greenback slipped to about CNH6.9550. There has been talk in the markets for the past few months that Chinese officials were guiding the fix toward CNY7.0. It has almost been achieved.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 中國人民銀行今天將美元的參考匯率設定為 <strong>CNY7.0051</strong>，為 2023 年 5 月以來的最低水平。美元滑落至約 CNH6.9550。市場上已經有幾個月的討論稱中國官員正在引導匯率朝 CNY7.0 靠攏。幾乎已經實現。</p>
</div><p>• The <strong>Indian rupee</strong> fell for the third consecutive session. The dollar reached INR91.00. The record-high set last month was about INR91.0835. Foreign banks and Indian importers have been buying dollars.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>印度盧比</strong> 連續第三個交易日下跌。美元達到了 INR91.00。上個月創下的歷史高點約為 INR91.0835。外國銀行和印度進口商一直在購買美元。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Other Markets</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>其他市場</strong></h3>
</div><p>• <strong>Equities</strong> are having a tough day, though mainland Chinese stocks, and Taiwan and South Korea were among the large bourses that bucked the trend. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off 1.4%, which if sustained would be the large drop since mid-November. US index futures are off 1.0%-1.5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>股市</strong> 今天表現艱難，儘管中國大陸股票、台灣和韓國等大型交易所逆勢而上。歐洲的 Stoxx 600 下跌 1.4%，如果持續將是自 11 月中旬以來的最大跌幅。美國指數期貨下跌 1.0%-1.5%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Benchmark 10-year yields:</strong> The election announcement in Japan saw the 10-year JGB yield jump almost eight basis points to 2.25%. European yields are mostly narrowly mixed. In futures trading US yields are also lower despite the jump in JGB yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>基準 10 年期收益率：</strong> 日本的選舉公告使 10 年期 JGB 收益率幾乎跳升八個基點至 2.25%。歐洲收益率大多窄幅混合。在期貨交易中，儘管 JGB 收益率上漲，美國收益率也在下降。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Gold</strong> and Silver have been bid to record highs. Gold reached $4690 and is now closer to $4967. Silver poked above $94 and is now near $93.30.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>黃金</strong> 和白銀的價格已達到創紀錄高位。黃金達到了 4690 美元，現在接近 4967 美元。白銀突破 94 美元，現在接近 93.30 美元。</p>
</div><p>• March <strong>WTI</strong> eased to a five-day low around $58.55. The pre-weekend low was closer to $58.80, and it is straddling that area now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• 3 月 <strong>WTI</strong> 輕油回落至五天低點，約為 58.55 美元。週末前的低點接近 58.80 美元，現在徘徊在該區域。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Data</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>數據</strong></h3>
</div><p>• <strong>Canada</strong> reports December CPI today. Given the base effect, the 0.2% decline of the median forecast in Bloomberg’s survey would allow the year-over-year rate to hold steady at 2.2%. The underlying core rates have been firmer (2.8% in November) but central bank governor Macklem has suggested officials see the underlying rates as a bit exaggerated. The central bank said last month it is not sure the timing of the direction of the next rate adjustment. The market is convinced that the central bank is on the sidelines in the first half. The swaps market is discounting about a 60% chance of a hike before the end of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>加拿大</strong> 今天公佈了 12 月的消費者物價指數（CPI）。考慮到基數效應，彭博社調查中 0.2% 的中位數預測下降將使得同比增速保持在 2.2%。核心通脹率較為堅挺（11 月為 2.8%），但中央銀行行長麥克勒姆表示官員們認為核心通脹率有些被誇大。中央銀行上個月表示不確定下一次利率調整的時機。市場相信中央銀行在上半年將保持觀望。掉期市場預計在年底前加息的概率約為 60%。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>Japan</strong> reported an 11% drop in core machine orders in November, which offset the 7.0% jump in October. The drop was around twice what the economists in Bloomberg’s poll projected. The final reading of November industrial output revised the poor, the preliminary estimate to a 2.7% decline rather than 2.6% decline. It follows a 1.5% gain in October. Industrial output slipped slightly in Q3. The tertiary industry index (services) slipped by 0.2% in November after a 0.8% increase in October. It rose a cumulative 0.1% in Q3. The BOJ meets at the end of the week, but officials have not prepared the market for a move, and the swaps market is confident that it will stand pat.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>日本</strong> 報告 11 月核心機械訂單下降 11%，抵消了 10 月 7.0% 的增長。此次下降約為彭博社調查中經濟學家預測的兩倍。11 月工業產出的最終讀數修正了之前的低迷，初步估計為下降 2.7%，而非 2.6%。這之前 10 月增長了 1.5%。第三季度工業產出略有下滑。服務業指數在 11 月下降 0.2%，而 10 月增長了 0.8%。第三季度累計增長 0.1%。日本銀行將在本週末召開會議，但官員們並未為市場準備任何政策變動，掉期市場對其維持現狀充滿信心。</p>
</div><p>• <strong>China</strong> reported the world’s second-largest economy grew by 1.2% in Q4 25 for a 4.5% year-over-year pace. The December details were mixed. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales slowed to 0.9% from 1.3%, the weakest since Covid, while industrial output rose 5.2% from 4.8% in November, the best in three months. Fixed asset investment contracted by 3.8% on a year-over-year year-to-date basis form a 2.6% drop in Q3. Residential property sales continued to slide on the same basis, while new and used house prices softened as they have since April 2023, the last time they increased. The peak though was around the middle of 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>• <strong>中國</strong> 報告稱，世界第二大經濟體在 2025 年第四季度增長了 1.2%，同比增速為 4.5%。12 月的具體數據喜憂參半。從同比來看，零售銷售增速從 1.3% 放緩至 0.9%，為疫情以來的最低水平，而工業產出從 11 月的 4.8% 上升至 5.2%，為三個月以來的最好表現。固定資產投資在年初至今的同比基礎上收縮了 3.8%，而第三季度下降為 2.6%。住宅銷售在同一基礎上持續下滑，而新房和二手房價格自 2023 年 4 月以來持續走軟，上次上漲是在 2021 年中期。</p>
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</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
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</div>

由於格陵蘭緊張局勢加劇，美元下滑