<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源 – 哈薩克斯坦石油中斷</strong></h3>
<p>儘管 ICE 布倫特原油昨日小幅下跌，收盤下跌 0.3%，但在市場整體風險規避的情況下表現相對穩健。這是由於美國與歐洲之間關於特朗普總統對格林蘭的要求重新出現的貿易緊張局勢。美元走弱為石油及更廣泛的商品市場提供了一定支持。ICE 布倫特原油的期貨價差持續堅挺也將有助於提振市場，因為這表明現貨實物市場趨緊。</p>
<p>在哈薩克斯坦，Tengizchevroil 因發電機發生兩起火災而暫時停止了在其 Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的生產。該生產商在 2025 年前三個季度的日產量約為 89 萬桶。哈薩克斯坦最近幾個月面臨多次供應中斷，包括來自俄羅斯 CPC 終端的出口受到無人機襲擊的影響。</p>
<p>ICE 柴油裂解價差在最近幾天重新走強，接近每桶 25 美元。歐洲中間餾分市場的強勁表現與歐盟對俄羅斯石油生產的精煉產品進口禁令相吻合。該禁令將於 1 月 21 日生效。儘管貿易流動有時間調整以適應禁令，但仍可能導致一些中斷。該禁令將主要影響印度到歐洲的中間餾分流動。一些印度煉油商據報道正在調整原油採購，以繼續向歐盟銷售。</p>
<h3><strong>金屬 - 黃金和白銀創下新紀錄，銅價反彈</strong></h3>
<p>隨着地緣政治緊張局勢升級，黃金和白銀飆升至新紀錄高位，推動了對避險資產的需求。最新的催化劑是美國與歐洲之間的摩擦加劇，特朗普對格林蘭的控制權的強烈推動引發了對潛在跨大西洋貿易衝突的擔憂。</p>
<p>黃金和白銀都延續了年初至今的強勁漲幅。黃金上漲約 8%，而白銀上漲 30%，在 2025 年已經表現出色的基礎上進一步攀升。這一走勢受到一系列地緣政治衝擊的推動，包括美國逮捕委內瑞拉領導人以及華盛頓對格林蘭立場的持續不確定性。</p>
<p>特朗普政府對美聯儲的反覆攻擊加劇了投資者對中央銀行獨立性的擔憂，進一步加劇了貶值交易。隨着美國債務水平上升和政策不確定性加劇，投資者更傾向於選擇黃金和白銀而非貨幣和政府債券。</p>
<p>在工業金屬方面，銅價反彈至每噸 13,000 美元，經過上週的波動後回升。這一走勢主要受到宏觀經濟和美元動態的推動。特朗普對多個歐洲國家的新關税威脅使美元走弱，激發了廣泛的金屬購買情緒。中國 GDP 符合政府目標，進一步支持了市場情緒。這有助於在幾周的混合數據後穩定需求預期。</p>
<p>與此同時，LME 跟蹤的美國倉庫中的銅庫存自 2025 年 9 月以來首次上升。截止昨日，庫存增加了 950 噸，從零開始增長。這一增長跟隨了相對定價的顯著變化，LME 現貨價格現在高於 Comex 前月期貨，逆轉了去年將大量銅引入美國並使美國以外市場緊張的模式。這表明，定義了 2025 年大部分時間的極端關税驅動扭曲可能開始正常化。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>捷克生產者價格下跌將影響 CPI</p>
<p>外匯日報：格林蘭壓力風險美元反彈</p>
<p>鮑威爾與民眾對話</p>

<p>商品市場動態強調了美元疲軟對市場的影響，特別是在能源和金屬領域。由於火災，哈薩克斯坦的石油生產受到干擾，而布倫特原油價格在更廣泛的市場風險下保持穩定。由於地緣政治緊張局勢，黃金和白銀創下歷史新高，黃金年初至今上漲了 8%，白銀上漲了 30%。銅價反彈至每噸 13,000 美元，受到宏觀動態和中國 GDP 表現的支持。報告還指出，美國倉庫中的銅庫存上升，表明在之前關税驅動的扭曲後，市場條件可能會趨於正常化</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhsaWI9cmItMS4yLjEmcT04MCZ3PTEwMDA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1516199423456-1f1e91b06f25?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy – Kazakh oil disruptions</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源 – 哈薩克斯坦石油中斷</strong></h3>
</div><p>While ICE Brent edged lower yesterday, settling 0.3% lower on the day, it held up relatively well amid the broader risk-off move in markets. This follows the re-emergence of trade tensions between the US and Europe over President Trump's Greenland demands.A weaker US dollar provided some support to oil and the broader commodities complex. Continued firmness in ICE Brent timespreads will also help buoy the market, as it suggests a tighter spot physical market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>儘管 ICE 布倫特原油昨日小幅下跌，收盤下跌 0.3%，但在市場整體風險規避的情況下表現相對穩健。這是由於美國與歐洲之間關於特朗普總統對格林蘭的要求重新出現的貿易緊張局勢。美元走弱為石油及更廣泛的商品市場提供了一定支持。ICE 布倫特原油的期貨價差持續堅挺也將有助於提振市場，因為這表明現貨實物市場趨緊。</p>
</div><p>In Kazakhstan, Tengizchevroil temporarily stopped production at its Tengiz and Korolev fields after two fires broke out at power generators. The producer pumped around 890k b/d over the first three quarters of 2025. Kazakhstan has faced several supply disruptions in recent months, including exports from the CPC terminal in Russia, which were impacted by drone strikes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在哈薩克斯坦，Tengizchevroil 因發電機發生兩起火災而暫時停止了在其 Tengiz 和 Korolev 油田的生產。該生產商在 2025 年前三個季度的日產量約為 89 萬桶。哈薩克斯坦最近幾個月面臨多次供應中斷，包括來自俄羅斯 CPC 終端的出口受到無人機襲擊的影響。</p>
</div><p>The ICE gasoil crack has seen renewed strength in recent days, edging back towards US$25/bbl. The strength in the European middle distillate market coincides with the EU’s ban on refined product imports produced from Russian oil. The ban comes into effect on 21 January. While trade flows have had time to adjust to the ban, it may still lead to some disruption. The ban will largely affect middle distillate flows from India to Europe. Some Indian refiners are reportedly adjusting their crude purchases to continue selling into the EU.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ICE 柴油裂解價差在最近幾天重新走強，接近每桶 25 美元。歐洲中間餾分市場的強勁表現與歐盟對俄羅斯石油生產的精煉產品進口禁令相吻合。該禁令將於 1 月 21 日生效。儘管貿易流動有時間調整以適應禁令，但仍可能導致一些中斷。該禁令將主要影響印度到歐洲的中間餾分流動。一些印度煉油商據報道正在調整原油採購，以繼續向歐盟銷售。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Metals - Gold and silver hit fresh records, copper rebounds</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>金屬 - 黃金和白銀創下新紀錄，銅價反彈</strong></h3>
</div><p>Gold and silver surged to fresh record highs as escalating geopolitical tensions boosted demand for safe-haven assets. The latest catalyst is renewed friction between the US and Europe, with Trump’s intensifying push to take control of Greenland stoking concerns over a potential transatlantic trade conflict.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着地緣政治緊張局勢升級，黃金和白銀飆升至新紀錄高位，推動了對避險資產的需求。最新的催化劑是美國與歐洲之間的摩擦加劇，特朗普對格林蘭的控制權的強烈推動引發了對潛在跨大西洋貿易衝突的擔憂。</p>
</div><p>Both gold and silver have extended their strong year-to-date gains. Gold is up around 8%, while silver has climbed 30%, building on an already robust performance in 2025. The move has been driven by a series of geopolitical shocks, including the US arrest of Venezuela’s leader and the continued uncertainty surrounding Washington’s stance on Greenland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黃金和白銀都延續了年初至今的強勁漲幅。黃金上漲約 8%，而白銀上漲 30%，在 2025 年已經表現出色的基礎上進一步攀升。這一走勢受到一系列地緣政治衝擊的推動，包括美國逮捕委內瑞拉領導人以及華盛頓對格林蘭立場的持續不確定性。</p>
</div><p>Adding to the volatility, the Trump administration’s repeated attacks on the Federal Reserve intensified investor concerns about central bank independence. This has reinforced the debasement trade. Investors are favouring gold and silver over currencies and government bonds amid rising US debt levels and heightened policy unpredictability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普政府對美聯儲的反覆攻擊加劇了投資者對中央銀行獨立性的擔憂，進一步加劇了貶值交易。隨着美國債務水平上升和政策不確定性加劇，投資者更傾向於選擇黃金和白銀而非貨幣和政府債券。</p>
</div><p>In industrial metals, copper climbed toward $13,000/t, rebounding after last week’s volatility. The move was driven largely by macro and dollar dynamics. Trump’s threat of new tariffs on several European countries pushed the dollar lower, sparking broad-based metals buying. Sentiment was further supported by China’s GDP meeting the government’s target. This helped stabilise demand expectations following weeks of mixed data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在工業金屬方面，銅價反彈至每噸 13,000 美元，經過上週的波動後回升。這一走勢主要受到宏觀經濟和美元動態的推動。特朗普對多個歐洲國家的新關税威脅使美元走弱，激發了廣泛的金屬購買情緒。中國 GDP 符合政府目標，進一步支持了市場情緒。這有助於在幾周的混合數據後穩定需求預期。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, copper inventories in US warehouses tracked by the LME rose for the first time since September 2025 <strong>.</strong> As of yesterday, they increased by 950 tonnes, climbing from zero. The build follows a notable flip in relative pricing with LME spot now trading above Comex front-month futures, reversing last year’s pattern that drew huge volumes of copper into the US and left ex-US markets tight. This suggests the extreme tariff-driven distortions that defined much of 2025 may be beginning to normalise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>與此同時，LME 跟蹤的美國倉庫中的銅庫存自 2025 年 9 月以來首次上升。截止昨日，庫存增加了 950 噸，從零開始增長。這一增長跟隨了相對定價的顯著變化，LME 現貨價格現在高於 Comex 前月期貨，逆轉了去年將大量銅引入美國並使美國以外市場緊張的模式。這表明，定義了 2025 年大部分時間的極端關税驅動扭曲可能開始正常化。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Falling Czech Producer Prices Will Shape CPI</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>捷克生產者價格下跌將影響 CPI</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Greenland Pressure Risks Dollar Blowback</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外匯日報：格林蘭壓力風險美元反彈</p>
</div><p>Powell To The People</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鮑威爾與民眾對話</p>
</div>

大宗商品動態：美元走軟為市場帶來了一些利好