<p>支持美元貶值論的一個論點是貨幣供應增長失控。例如，我們看到一篇帖子聲稱 “美國貨幣創造的速度令人震驚。” 具體來説，他表示貨幣供應在 2025 年增加了 1.65 萬億美元。像他這樣以絕對美元金額引用貨幣供應是毫無意義的。要正確評估貨幣供應的增長，應該將貨幣供應的變化率與經濟增長率（GDP）進行比較。如下所示，M2 同比增長了 4.27%。名義 GDP 增長了 5.71%。換句話説，貨幣供應的增長速度低於經濟增長。此外，儘管最近經濟增長有所回升，貨幣供應的增長仍略低於疫情前的平均水平。</p>
<p>如果貨幣的增長與經濟的生產能力相一致，它有助於通過將貨幣供應與生產和需求的商品和服務數量對齊來維持價格穩定。當貨幣增長速度超過實際產出時，就會發生通貨膨脹。相反，當貨幣供應的增長速度低於 GDP 時，流動性短缺可能會限制增長並增加通貨緊縮的風險。簡單來説，將貨幣供應的增長與經濟增長對齊有助於支持價格穩定、高效的資本配置和可持續的長期擴張。如果説有什麼的話，貨幣增長速度低於經濟增長應該引起通縮的警示，而不是 “令人震驚” 的擔憂。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>今日關注</strong></h3>
<p><strong>財報</strong></p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png"/></p>
<p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
<p>隨着標準普爾 500 指數在 <strong><em>週五收於 6940 點</em></strong>，技術條件顯示市場處於受控但整合狀態，關鍵里程碑即將到來。該指數維持了去年底至今年初建立的上升趨勢，表明持續的看漲動能，因為更高的高點和更高的低點保持不變。此趨勢得到了標準普爾 500 指數最近成功測試 20 日移動平均線的支持，廣度指標如上漲股票和整體市場參與度超越了僅僅是大型科技股的範圍。</p>
<p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png"/></p>
<p>本週的價格走勢顯示，標準普爾 500 指數在接近歷史最高水平時徘徊，同時在心理上重要的 <strong>7000 點</strong> 下方的狹窄區間內整合，這一水平作為即時阻力。技術性賣出和財報前的期權市場動態可能只是對潛在失望風險的預先佈局。然而，如果財報好於預期，這可能會導致相當爆炸性的上漲，如果上升楔形模式以看漲方式解決。日線圖上的短期動量指標顯示中性到略微看漲的條件，趨勢放緩但沒有逆轉。市場當前的結構顯示出在強勁上漲後的典型整合行為，通常在廣泛的廣度保持支持時，預示着繼續而非突然逆轉。</p>
<p>在下行方面，該指數仍受到交易者和投資者應監測的關鍵水平的支持。這些包括之前的突破區和 50 日移動平均線，後者在最近的回調中作為動態支撐底線。果斷跌破這些支撐可能會發出短期趨勢信心喪失的信號，儘管週末的風險事件，如地緣政治發展或政策新聞，仍可能在馬丁·路德·金紀念日假期後影響價格走勢。</p>
<p>從波動性角度來看，美國股票波動性指標仍然處於低位，儘管波動性略有上升。隨着財報季和宏觀經濟數據發佈，我們可能會看到波動性進一步上升，這些數據通常被視為方向性突破的催化劑。</p>
<p>總之，標準普爾 500 指數的技術特徵仍然是建設性的，但在阻力附近保持區間。支撐水平目前保持穩定，趨勢指標在關鍵突破水平上仍然看漲。下一次方向性移動可能取決於市場能否突破 7000 點以上的阻力，或測試定義當前趨勢結構的更深支撐水平。</p>
<p><strong>關鍵技術水平 – 標準普爾 500 指數 (SPX)</strong></p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>水平</strong></th>
<th><strong>角色</strong></th>
<th><strong>評論</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>7100</td>
<td>下一個阻力</td>
<td>7000 突破以上的下一個上行延伸</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7000</td>
<td>立即阻力</td>
<td>接近歷史最高點的心理障礙</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6940</td>
<td>週五收盤水平</td>
<td>當前交易支點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6909</td>
<td>短期支撐</td>
<td>20 日移動平均線</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6829</td>
<td>次級支撐</td>
<td>50 日移動平均線</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6742</td>
<td>更深支撐</td>
<td>100 日移動平均線</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3><strong>未來一週</strong></h3>
<p>假期縮短的一週的亮點將是週四的 PCE 價格數據。考慮到 BLS 最近的積極通脹數據，投資者將尋求在 PCE 中確認。請記住，美聯儲最重視的是 PCE 價格，而不是 CPI。核心 PCE 的共識預期為月增 0.4%，年增 2.9%。這將表明通脹略高於 CPI。</p>
<p>本週美聯儲將進入媒體禁言期，接近下週的 FOMC 會議。正如我們在下面分享的，這次會議降息的概率僅為 5%。</p>
<p>本週財報公告的節奏將加快。</p>
<ul>
<li>週二：Netflix、MMM 和聯合航空</li>
<li>週三：強生、查爾斯·施瓦布、金德摩根</li>
<li>週四：Visa、寶潔、雅培、英特爾和西南航空</li>
<li>週五：NextEra、斯倫貝謝</li>
</ul>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>人工智能生產力、就業和基本收入</strong></h3>
<p>預計人工智能生產力的提升將極大地改變美國經濟。企業正在利用人工智能的生產力提升來自動化重複性任務，研究和編碼功能已經得以實施。顯而易見的問題是，當機器執行曾由人類完成的功能時，人類應該如何獲得收入？這種人工智能生產力的提升在各個行業都是可衡量的，因為供應鏈運作更加高效，數據分析加速，客户服務利用自動化代理來簡化任務。製造業，曾被視為經濟的穩定部門，正越來越多地使用機器人來降低勞動力成本。專業服務行業也在醫療、法律和其他服務經濟領域逐漸取代工人，以提高每位工人的產出（即：利潤）。</p>
<p>這並不是新鮮事。自傳真機和電話應答設備發明以來，這一趨勢一直在加速。使用人工智能生產力提升技術的跡象越來越明顯。但正如所示，企業轉向關注工人生產力的轉變仍在繼續。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png"/></p>
<p>最近的企業聲明證實了這一轉變。在 2025 年的一場金融會議上，摩根大通報告稱，人工智能的採用使某些操作的生產力提升從 3% 翻倍至 6%，一些崗位的效率提升達到了 40% 至 50%。其他銀行表示，人工智能使他們能夠在相同的人數下完成更多的工作。</p>
<p>理論上，人工智能生產力提升的承諾令人嚮往。雖然企業可以用更少的投入生產更多的產品，但人類將有更多時間追求教育、休閒和與家人共度時光，從而提高整體健康和幸福感。再一次，這只是理論，今天評論的主題。</p>
<p>閲讀更多…</p>
<h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>市場保持看漲，輪動持續</p>
<p>人工智能生產力、就業與基本收入</p>
<p>疲軟的日元、日本央行與套利交易</p>

全美價值股指數 ETF - Vanguard

全美成長股指數 MSCI ETF - Vanguard

美國大盤成長股 ETF - Charles Schwab

<p>這篇文章討論了關於貨幣供應快速增長的誤解，強調應將其與 GDP 增長進行評估。文章指出，M2 貨幣供應增長了 4.27%，而名義 GDP 增長了 5.71%，這表明貨幣供應的增長並不令人擔憂，反而低於疫情前的平均水平。標普 500 指數處於整固狀態，關鍵阻力位在 7000 點，支撐位保持穩定。即將發佈的個人消費支出（PCE）價格數據備受關注，隨着本週盈利公告的增加，市場將重點關注通脹趨勢</p>

<p>Supporting the dollar-debasement narrative is the claim that money supply growth is out of control. For instance, we saw a post claiming “US money creation is happening at an alarming pace.” Specifically, he says the money supply increased by $1.65 trillion in 2025. Quoting the money supply, as he does, in absolute dollar terms is meaningless. To properly gauge money supply growth, one should compare the rate of change in the money supply compared to the economy’s growth rate (GDP). As shown below, M2 grew by 4.27% year over year. Nominal GDP grew by 5.71%. In other words, the money supply grew more slowly than the economy. Furthermore, money supply growth is slightly below the pre-pandemic average, despite a recent uptick in economic growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支持美元貶值論的一個論點是貨幣供應增長失控。例如，我們看到一篇帖子聲稱 “美國貨幣創造的速度令人震驚。” 具體來説，他表示貨幣供應在 2025 年增加了 1.65 萬億美元。像他這樣以絕對美元金額引用貨幣供應是毫無意義的。要正確評估貨幣供應的增長，應該將貨幣供應的變化率與經濟增長率（GDP）進行比較。如下所示，M2 同比增長了 4.27%。名義 GDP 增長了 5.71%。換句話説，貨幣供應的增長速度低於經濟增長。此外，儘管最近經濟增長有所回升，貨幣供應的增長仍略低於疫情前的平均水平。</p>
</div><p>If money grows in line with the economy’s productive capacity, it helps maintain price stability by aligning the money supply with the quantity of goods and services produced and demanded. When money grows faster than real output, inflation occurs. Conversely, when the money supply grows more slowly than GDP, liquidity shortages can constrain growth and increase the risk of deflation. Simply put, aligning money supply growth with economic growth supports stable prices, efficient capital allocation, and sustainable long-term expansion. If anything, the fact that money is not growing as fast as the economy should raise disinflationary flags, not “alarming” concern.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果貨幣的增長與經濟的生產能力相一致，它有助於通過將貨幣供應與生產和需求的商品和服務數量對齊來維持價格穩定。當貨幣增長速度超過實際產出時，就會發生通貨膨脹。相反，當貨幣供應的增長速度低於 GDP 時，流動性短缺可能會限制增長並增加通貨緊縮的風險。簡單來説，將貨幣供應的增長與經濟增長對齊有助於支持價格穩定、高效的資本配置和可持續的長期擴張。如果説有什麼的話，貨幣增長速度低於經濟增長應該引起通縮的警示，而不是 “令人震驚” 的擔憂。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/m2-1024x832.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>What To Watch Today</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日關注</strong></h3>
</div><p><strong>Earnings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>財報</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-93-1024x293.png"/></p>
<p><strong>Economy</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>經濟</strong></p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/image-94-1024x74.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>Market Trading Update</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>市場交易更新</strong></h3>
</div><p>With the S&amp;P 500 closing at <strong><em>6940 on Friday</em></strong>, the technical conditions reveal a market in a controlled but consolidative state as key milestones approach. The index maintained its uptrend established late last year and into early January, signaling continued bullish momentum as higher highs and higher lows remain intact. This trend is supported by the S&amp;P 500’s recent successful test of the 20-day moving average, with breadth indicators such as advancing stocks and total market participation expanding beyond just mega-cap technology names.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>隨着標準普爾 500 指數在 <strong><em>週五收於 6940 點</em></strong>，技術條件顯示市場處於受控但整合狀態，關鍵里程碑即將到來。該指數維持了去年底至今年初建立的上升趨勢，表明持續的看漲動能，因為更高的高點和更高的低點保持不變。此趨勢得到了標準普爾 500 指數最近成功測試 20 日移動平均線的支持，廣度指標如上漲股票和整體市場參與度超越了僅僅是大型科技股的範圍。</p>
</div><p><em>(Click on image to enlarge)</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>(點擊圖片放大)</em></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/%5EGSPC_2026-01-16_10-20-02-1024x779.png"/></p>
<p>Price action through the week saw the S&amp;P 500 navigate around near‑record levels while consolidating within a tight range just below the psychologically significant <strong>7000 level</strong>, which acts as immediate resistance. Both the technical selling and options market dynamics ahead of earnings could just be prepositioning against potential disappointment risk. However, if earnings are better than feared, this could lead to a rather explosive move higher if the rising wedge pattern resolves bullishly. Short‑term momentum indicators on the daily chart suggest neutral to slightly bullish conditions, with the trend slowing but without reversing. The market’s current structure shows typical consolidation behavior after a strong advance, often preceding a continuation rather than an abrupt reversal when broader breadth remains supportive.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週的價格走勢顯示，標準普爾 500 指數在接近歷史最高水平時徘徊，同時在心理上重要的 <strong>7000 點</strong> 下方的狹窄區間內整合，這一水平作為即時阻力。技術性賣出和財報前的期權市場動態可能只是對潛在失望風險的預先佈局。然而，如果財報好於預期，這可能會導致相當爆炸性的上漲，如果上升楔形模式以看漲方式解決。日線圖上的短期動量指標顯示中性到略微看漲的條件，趨勢放緩但沒有逆轉。市場當前的結構顯示出在強勁上漲後的典型整合行為，通常在廣泛的廣度保持支持時，預示着繼續而非突然逆轉。</p>
</div><p>On the downside, the index remains supported by key levels that traders and investors should monitor. These include the prior breakout zones and the 50‑day moving average, which has acted as a dynamic support floor through recent pullbacks. A decisive break below these supports could signal a loss of short‑term trend conviction, though weekend risk events, such as geopolitical developments or policy news, could still influence price action once markets reopen after the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下行方面，該指數仍受到交易者和投資者應監測的關鍵水平的支持。這些包括之前的突破區和 50 日移動平均線，後者在最近的回調中作為動態支撐底線。果斷跌破這些支撐可能會發出短期趨勢信心喪失的信號，儘管週末的風險事件，如地緣政治發展或政策新聞，仍可能在馬丁·路德·金紀念日假期後影響價格走勢。</p>
</div><p>From a volatility perspective, U.S. equity volatility metrics remain subdued, although volatility has risen mildly. We could see a further pickup in volatility with earnings season and macroeconomic data releases, which are known to act as catalysts for directional breaks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從波動性角度來看，美國股票波動性指標仍然處於低位，儘管波動性略有上升。隨着財報季和宏觀經濟數據發佈，我們可能會看到波動性進一步上升，這些數據通常被視為方向性突破的催化劑。</p>
</div><p>In sum, the S&amp;P 500’s technical profile remains constructive but range‑bound near resistance. Support levels are holding for now, and trend measures remain bullish above the key breakout levels. The next directional move will likely hinge on the market’s ability to clear resistance above 7000 or to test deeper support levels that define the current trend structure.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>總之，標準普爾 500 指數的技術特徵仍然是建設性的，但在阻力附近保持區間。支撐水平目前保持穩定，趨勢指標在關鍵突破水平上仍然看漲。下一次方向性移動可能取決於市場能否突破 7000 點以上的阻力，或測試定義當前趨勢結構的更深支撐水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS – S&amp;P 500 Index (SPX)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>關鍵技術水平 – 標準普爾 500 指數 (SPX)</strong></p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>Level</strong></th>
<th><strong>Role</strong></th>
<th><strong>Comment</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>7100</td>
<td>Next resistance</td>
<td>Next upside extension above a 7000 breakout</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7000</td>
<td>Immediate resistance</td>
<td>Psychological barrier near all‑time high</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6940</td>
<td>Friday close level</td>
<td>Current trading pivot</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6909</td>
<td>Near‑term support</td>
<td>20-day moving average</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6829</td>
<td>Secondary support</td>
<td>50-day moving average</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6742</td>
<td>Deeper support</td>
<td>100-day moving average</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th><strong>水平</strong></th>
<th><strong>角色</strong></th>
<th><strong>評論</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>7100</td>
<td>下一個阻力</td>
<td>7000 突破以上的下一個上行延伸</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7000</td>
<td>立即阻力</td>
<td>接近歷史最高點的心理障礙</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6940</td>
<td>週五收盤水平</td>
<td>當前交易支點</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6909</td>
<td>短期支撐</td>
<td>20 日移動平均線</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6829</td>
<td>次級支撐</td>
<td>50 日移動平均線</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6742</td>
<td>更深支撐</td>
<td>100 日移動平均線</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div><h3><strong>The Week Ahead</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>未來一週</strong></h3>
</div><p>The highlight of the holiday-shortened week will be Thursday’s PCE prices data. Given the recent positive inflation data from the BLS, investors will look for confirmation in PCE. Bear in mind that the Fed relies most heavily on PCE prices, not CPI. The consensus estimate has Core PCE at +0.4% monthly and 2.9% annually. This would indicate slightly higher inflation than the CPI.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>假期縮短的一週的亮點將是週四的 PCE 價格數據。考慮到 BLS 最近的積極通脹數據，投資者將尋求在 PCE 中確認。請記住，美聯儲最重視的是 PCE 價格，而不是 CPI。核心 PCE 的共識預期為月增 0.4%，年增 2.9%。這將表明通脹略高於 CPI。</p>
</div><p>The Fed will be in its media blackout period this week as they approach next week’s FOMC meeting. As we share below, the odds of a rate cut at this meeting are a mere 5%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週美聯儲將進入媒體禁言期，接近下週的 FOMC 會議。正如我們在下面分享的，這次會議降息的概率僅為 5%。</p>
</div><p>The pace of earnings announcements will increase this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本週財報公告的節奏將加快。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Tuesday: Netflix, MMM, and United Airlines</li>
<li>Wednesday: J&amp;J, Charles Schwab, Kinder Morgan</li>
<li>Thursday: Visa, P&amp;G, Abbott, Intel, and Southwest Air</li>
<li>Friday: NextEra, Schlumberger</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>週二：Netflix、MMM 和聯合航空</li>
<li>週三：強生、查爾斯·施瓦布、金德摩根</li>
<li>週四：Visa、寶潔、雅培、英特爾和西南航空</li>
<li>週五：NextEra、斯倫貝謝</li>
</ul>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/fomc.png"/></p>
<h3><strong>AI Productivity, Employment, and UBI</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>人工智能生產力、就業和基本收入</strong></h3>
</div><p>It is expected that AI productivity increases will vastly transform the U.S. economy. Firms are utilizing AI productivity enhancements to automate repetitive tasks, and research and coding functions have already been implemented. The obvious problem is that when machines perform functions once done by humans, what are the humans supposed to do for income? This increase in AI productivity is measurable across various sectors, as supply chains operate more efficiently, data analysis accelerates, and customer service utilizes automated agents to streamline tasks. Manufacturing, once considered a stable sector of the economy, is increasingly using robotics to reduce labor costs. Professional services are also increasingly displacing workers in medical, legal, and other areas of the service economy to improve output (read: profits) per worker.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>預計人工智能生產力的提升將極大地改變美國經濟。企業正在利用人工智能的生產力提升來自動化重複性任務，研究和編碼功能已經得以實施。顯而易見的問題是，當機器執行曾由人類完成的功能時，人類應該如何獲得收入？這種人工智能生產力的提升在各個行業都是可衡量的，因為供應鏈運作更加高效，數據分析加速，客户服務利用自動化代理來簡化任務。製造業，曾被視為經濟的穩定部門，正越來越多地使用機器人來降低勞動力成本。專業服務行業也在醫療、法律和其他服務經濟領域逐漸取代工人，以提高每位工人的產出（即：利潤）。</p>
</div><p>This is not a new thing. It has been accelerating since the invention of the fax machine and phone answering devices. The use of AI productivity-enhancing technology is becoming increasingly apparent. But as shown, the shift by corporations to focus on worker productivity is ongoing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>這並不是新鮮事。自傳真機和電話應答設備發明以來，這一趨勢一直在加速。使用人工智能生產力提升技術的跡象越來越明顯。但正如所示，企業轉向關注工人生產力的轉變仍在繼續。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-87.png"/></p>
<p>Recent corporate statements confirm this shift. At a 2025 financial conference, JPMorgan Chase reported that AI adoption doubled productivity gains in certain operations from 3% to 6%, with some roles seeing efficiency increases of 40% to 50%. Other banks said AI allows them to accomplish more work with the same headcount.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的企業聲明證實了這一轉變。在 2025 年的一場金融會議上，摩根大通報告稱，人工智能的採用使某些操作的生產力提升從 3% 翻倍至 6%，一些崗位的效率提升達到了 40% 至 50%。其他銀行表示，人工智能使他們能夠在相同的人數下完成更多的工作。</p>
</div><p>In theory, the promise of AI productivity increases is alluring. While firms can produce more with fewer inputs, humans will have more time to pursue education, leisure, and spend time with their families, increasing overall health and happiness. Again, that is theory, and the subject of today’s commentary.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>理論上，人工智能生產力提升的承諾令人嚮往。雖然企業可以用更少的投入生產更多的產品，但人類將有更多時間追求教育、休閒和與家人共度時光，從而提高整體健康和幸福感。再一次，這只是理論，今天評論的主題。</p>
</div><p>READ MORE…</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>閲讀更多…</p>
</div><h3><strong>Tweet of the Day</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>今日推文</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png" alt="" original-src="https://realinvestmentadvice.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/pce-cpi.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Rotation Continues As Markets Remain Bullish</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市場保持看漲，輪動持續</p>
</div><p>AI Productivity, Employment And UBI</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能生產力、就業與基本收入</p>
</div><p>A Weak Yen, The BoJ, And The Carry Trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>疲軟的日元、日本央行與套利交易</p>
</div>

The Money Supply Myth: Context Matters

- 文章指出美元貶值論的支持來自資金供應增長失控的説法。  
- 2025 年，美國貨幣供應增長 1.65 萬億美元，年比增長 4.27%，低於 GDP 的 5.71%。  
- 當前市場在關鍵阻力位 7000 附近整理，後續走勢可能受財報影響。

貨幣供應的迷思：背景因素至關重要