<div id="readability-page-1"><div id="contentdata"> <div>  <p><span>Nifty outlook for January 21</span></p></div>  <div><div><p><span></span></p><ul><li>Bearish momentum dominates, drags Nifty near 200 DEMA</li><li>VIX hits 2-month high, near 13 zone ahead of Union Budget</li><li>Monthly options data suggest support for Nifty at 25,000, resistance at 25,500</li></ul><p></p></div></div>   <p>The Nifty 50 decisively broke the consolidation of the last six sessions on the downside and fell close to its 200-day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) with above-average volumes, as bears tightened their control over the market. The index recorded its biggest single-day fall since May 2025 and closed at a more than three-month low with a 1.38 percent loss, as a spike in the VIX towards the 13 level pushed bulls into a discomfort zone ahead of the Union Budget scheduled on February 1.</p><p>The Nifty 50 has shed more than 1,100 points from its record high of 26,373 recorded on January 5. After severe selling pressure, bulls may attempt to drive the market higher; however, those gains are unlikely to sustain given the strong bearish technical and momentum indicators. The Nifty 50 has reached a crucial zone near the 200-day EMA (25,162). If this level is decisively broken, 25,000–24,800 (psychological support and the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the August 2025 low to the January 2026 high) will be the levels to watch. In case of a pullback, 25,600 (near the high of today’s candle) may act as resistance, according to experts.</p><p>The Nifty 50 opened flat and remained below the previous day’s close throughout the session. The index extended its fall as the day progressed and hit an intraday low of 25,171 before finishing the session at 25,233 (the lowest closing level since October 14, 2025), down 353 points or 1.38 percent — the biggest single-day fall since May 13 last year.</p><p>The index formed a long bearish candle on the daily charts, accompanied by further weakening momentum indicators, indicating a sell signal. The RSI dropped to 29.27, nearing the oversold zone, while the MACD maintained a bearish crossover below the zero line, with the histogram weakening further.</p><p>“The overall market structure remains weak, with the MACD signaling a sell crossover on both the daily and weekly timeframes,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research) at Centrum Broking.</p><p>According to him, although a short-term pullback cannot be ruled out, the bearish setup will remain intact unless the index decisively moves back above 25,580.</p><p>“On the downside, a break below 25,100 could accelerate the fall towards the 24,800 level,” he added.</p><p>Further adding to the cautious undertone, India VIX jumped 7.63 percent to 12.73 — the highest closing level since November 24 last year — indicating heightened market uncertainty. The VIX has now climbed above all key moving averages, signaling increased risk for bulls.</p><p>Monthly options data suggest that 25,000 is the immediate support for the Nifty, with resistance at 25,500. The maximum Call open interest was placed at the 26,000 strike, followed by the 25,500 and 25,600 strikes, with maximum Call writing at the 25,500, 25,400, and 25,600 strikes. On the Put side, the 25,500 strike holds the maximum open interest, followed by the 24,500 and 26,000 strikes, with maximum Put writing at the 25,000, 24,500, and 24,900 strikes.</p><p><strong>Bank Nifty</strong></p><p>The Bank Nifty also formed a long red candle on the daily timeframe, falling below the 59,500 support level to close at 59,404, down 487 points or 0.81 percent, though it outperformed the benchmark Nifty 50.</p><p>With today’s correction, the index slipped below short-term moving averages and the midline of the Bollinger Bands with above-average volumes, signaling entry into bearish momentum. The RSI declined to 48.82 with a negative crossover, while the MACD remained below the reference line with a weakening histogram.</p><p>The next support for the banking index is placed at 59,000 (near the 50-day EMA), below which bears could gain further strength.</p><p>“Momentum indicators also signal caution, as the RSI is downward sloping and forming a lower top with a bearish crossover, suggesting a shift in sentiment. Immediate support is placed at 59,000, while resistance stands at 59,800,” said Vatsal Bhuva, Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.</p><p>A bullish view should be considered only on a sustained close above 60,000; until then, a cautious approach is advised.</p><p><em>Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.</em></p></div></div>

標普 500 VIX 短期期貨 ETN - ​​iPath

1678

印度 Nifty 50 等權重 ETF - First Trust

1 倍做空短期期貨恐慌指數 ETF

VIX 恐慌指數 做多 ETF - ProShares

<p>Nifty 50 指數經歷了顯著的下行勢頭，收於三個月低點 25,233，下降 1.38%。它接近 200 日指數移動平均線，支撐位在 25,000，阻力位在 25,500。VIX 上升至兩個月高點，表明市場不確定性增加。分析師建議可能會出現短期反彈，但整體市場結構仍然疲弱，動量指標顯示出賣出信號。Bank Nifty 也下跌，收於 59,404，立即支撐位在 59,000。建議採取謹慎態度，直到持續收盤超過 60,000</p>

Technical View: Rebound possible but unsustainable as bearish momentum dominates, drags Nifty near 200 DEMA; VIX hits 2-month high

Money Control

Nomura Holdings, Inc.

Nippon Life Insurance Co.

技術觀點：儘管反彈可能出現，但由於看跌動能佔據主導地位，反彈難以持續，Nifty 被拖至接近 200 日指數移動平均線；VIX 達到兩個月來的高點