<p>以太坊顯示出再次引領市場的跡象，類似於 2025 年第二季度的模式。</p>
<p>根據區塊鏈分析公司 Swissblock 的説法，一個關鍵的市場週期指標轉變為 “主導”（藍色），這暗示着以太坊可能會迎來一場巨大的反彈。</p>
<blockquote>
<p>“將創紀錄的質押水平與市場領導地位的變化結合起來，表明以太坊生態系統正在積累顯著的動能。”</p>
</blockquote>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：Swissblock/X</p>
<h2>收益需求催化劑</h2>
<p>在這裏，值得注意的是，質押需求（對以太坊 3% 收益的追求）已達到整體供應的創紀錄 47%（7785 萬 ETH）。</p>
<p>事實上，質押的進入隊列已經超過了退出隊列，進一步強化了對收益的強烈需求，尤其是來自機構的需求。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-santiment.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-santiment.jpg"/></p>
<p>來源：Santiment</p>
<p>在過去幾周，領先的以太坊國庫公司 BitMine 已質押 170 萬 ETH（55.6 億美元），佔其總 ETH 持有量的三分之一以上。</p>
<p>而美國現貨以太坊 ETF 目前持有近 10% 的總供應量，已申請增加質押，這可能進一步推動需求。</p>
<p>質押熱潮的結果？可供拋售的以太坊 [ETH] 越來越少。</p>
<p>在這種情況下，任何積極的宏觀環境或市場特定的更新都可能引發對這款山寨幣的巨大追捧，幾乎沒有獲利回吐來阻礙其上漲。</p>
<h2>關税會破壞以太坊的佈局嗎？</h2>
<p>在過去一週，美國現貨以太坊 ETF 也吸引了大量需求。根據 CoinShares 的數據，以太坊和瑞波幣 [XRP] 上週分別以 4.96 億美元和 6900 萬美元的資金流入領先。</p>
<p>然而，針對歐盟成員國的關税升級在美國對格林蘭的立場下，令市場情緒在上週五變得悲觀。</p>
<p>到目前為止，本週加密市場繼續逆轉近期的漲幅，投資者轉向風險規避模式。</p>
<p>事實上，即使是跟蹤美國零售對以太坊需求的 Coinbase 溢價指數，在上週的反彈嘗試後也出現了逆轉。</p>
<p>除非該指數轉為正值，否則以太坊的可持續復甦在短期內可能仍然難以實現。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
<p>從價格圖表的角度來看，上述數據集表明，除非更廣泛的市場情緒發生變化並且關税風險得到消除，否則以太坊可能會保持在趨勢線以下。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>來源：ETH/USDT，TradingView</p>
<p>趨勢線支撐在 2025 年下半年保持了以太坊的下跌，但在 11 月底比特幣失守 10 萬美元心理關口時被突破。</p>
<p>現在它已成為阻力，清除這一障礙可能是再次確認以太坊多頭前進道路的唯一方式。</p>
<hr/>
<h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
<ul>
<li><em>以太坊閃現出一個關鍵的 “主導” 市場週期信號，這可能暗示近期到中期的潛在反彈。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，新關税和宏觀新聞風險可能會破壞這種前景，並使以太坊在一段時間內保持在 3300 美元以下。</em></li>
</ul>

<p>以太坊顯示出市場領導的跡象，一個關鍵指標轉向 “主導”，暗示潛在的反彈。創紀錄的質押水平，47% 的供應量被質押，表明需求強勁，尤其是來自機構的需求。然而，重新升級的關税和風險規避情緒可能會阻礙短期復甦，使 ETH 保持在$3.3k 以下。Coinbase 溢價指數的反轉增加了不確定性，因為需要更廣泛的情緒變化才能實現可持續的復甦</p>

<p>Ethereum is showing signs of leading the market again, similar to the pattern seen in Q2 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以太坊顯示出再次引領市場的跡象，類似於 2025 年第二季度的模式。</p>
</div><p>According to the blockchain analytics firm Swissblock, a key market cycle indicator flipped to ‘predominance’ (blue), suggesting a potential monster rally for ETH.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根據區塊鏈分析公司 Swissblock 的説法，一個關鍵的市場週期指標轉變為 “主導”（藍色），這暗示着以太坊可能會迎來一場巨大的反彈。</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>“Combining record staking levels with this change in market leadership suggests significant momentum building for the Ethereum ecosystem.”</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>“將創紀錄的質押水平與市場領導地位的變化結合起來，表明以太坊生態系統正在積累顯著的動能。”</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-ETH-predominance.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Swissblock/X</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Swissblock/X</p>
</div><h2>The yield demand catalyst</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收益需求催化劑</h2>
</div><p>Here, it is worth noting that the staking demand (hunt for ETH’s 3% yield) has reached a record 47% of the overall supply (77.85 million ETH).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這裏，值得注意的是，質押需求（對以太坊 3% 收益的追求）已達到整體供應的創紀錄 47%（7785 萬 ETH）。</p>
</div><p>In fact, the staking entry queue has outpaced the exit queue, further reinforcing the overwhelming appetite for yield, especially from institutions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，質押的進入隊列已經超過了退出隊列，進一步強化了對收益的強烈需求，尤其是來自機構的需求。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-santiment.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-santiment.jpg"/></p>
<p>Source: Santiment</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：Santiment</p>
</div><p>In the past few weeks, BitMine, the leading ETH treasury firm, has staked 1.7 million ETH ($5.56 billion), over a third of its total ETH holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去幾周，領先的以太坊國庫公司 BitMine 已質押 170 萬 ETH（55.6 億美元），佔其總 ETH 持有量的三分之一以上。</p>
</div><p>And U.S. spot ETH ETFs, which currently hold nearly 10% of the total supply, have filed to add staking, which could further fuel demand.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>而美國現貨以太坊 ETF 目前持有近 10% 的總供應量，已申請增加質押，這可能進一步推動需求。</p>
</div><p>The result of the staking craze? Less and less available Ethereum [ETH] to be dumped on short notice.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>質押熱潮的結果？可供拋售的以太坊 [ETH] 越來越少。</p>
</div><p>In such a scenario, any positive macro landscape or market-specific update could trigger a massive run for the altcoin, with little profit-taking to hold it back.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在這種情況下，任何積極的宏觀環境或市場特定的更新都可能引發對這款山寨幣的巨大追捧，幾乎沒有獲利回吐來阻礙其上漲。</p>
</div><h2>Will tariffs spoil ETH’s setup?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>關税會破壞以太坊的佈局嗎？</h2>
</div><p>In the past week, the U.S. spot ETH ETFs also attracted massive demand. According to CoinShares, ETH and Ripple [XRP] led last week with $496 million and $69 million in inflows, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在過去一週，美國現貨以太坊 ETF 也吸引了大量需求。根據 CoinShares 的數據，以太坊和瑞波幣 [XRP] 上週分別以 4.96 億美元和 6900 萬美元的資金流入領先。</p>
</div><p>However, renewed tariff escalation against European Union member countries amid the U.S. stance on Greenland soured market sentiment last Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，針對歐盟成員國的關税升級在美國對格林蘭的立場下，令市場情緒在上週五變得悲觀。</p>
</div><p>So far this week, the crypto market has continued to reverse its recent gains as investors turn into risk-off mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到目前為止，本週加密市場繼續逆轉近期的漲幅，投資者轉向風險規避模式。</p>
</div><p>In fact, even the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks overall U.S. retail demand for ETH, reversed after last week’s attempted recovery.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>事實上，即使是跟蹤美國零售對以太坊需求的 Coinbase 溢價指數，在上週的反彈嘗試後也出現了逆轉。</p>
</div><p>Unless the index flips positive, a sustainable ETH recovery may remain elusive in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除非該指數轉為正值，否則以太坊的可持續復甦在短期內可能仍然難以實現。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Ethereum-Coinbase-Premium-Index-scaled.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CryptoQuant</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：CryptoQuant</p>
</div><p>From a price chart perspective, the above data sets suggest ETH may remain below the trendline unless broader sentiment shifts and tariff risk is cleared.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>從價格圖表的角度來看，上述數據集表明，除非更廣泛的市場情緒發生變化並且關税風險得到消除，否則以太坊可能會保持在趨勢線以下。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png" alt="" original-src="https://ambcrypto.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/ETHUSDT_2026-01-20_13-02-24.png"/></p>
<p>Source: ETH/USDT, TradingView</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>來源：ETH/USDT，TradingView</p>
</div><p>The trendline support held ETH’s decline in H2 2025 but was cracked in late November as Bitcoin lost the $100k psychological level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>趨勢線支撐在 2025 年下半年保持了以太坊的下跌，但在 11 月底比特幣失守 10 萬美元心理關口時被突破。</p>
</div><p>Now it has become a resistance, and clearing the hurdle may be the only way to confirm the path forward for ETH bulls again.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>現在它已成為阻力，清除這一障礙可能是再次確認以太坊多頭前進道路的唯一方式。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><h2><strong>Final Thoughts</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>最終思考</strong></h2>
</div><ul>
<li><em>ETH flashed a key ‘predominance’ market cycle signal that may suggest a potential rally in the near to mid-term.</em></li>
<li><em>However, new tariffs and macro headlines risk derailing such an outlook and keeping Ethereum below $3.3k for a while.</em></li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><em>以太坊閃現出一個關鍵的 “主導” 市場週期信號，這可能暗示近期到中期的潛在反彈。</em></li>
<li><em>然而，新關税和宏觀新聞風險可能會破壞這種前景，並使以太坊在一段時間內保持在 3300 美元以下。</em></li>
</ul>
</div>

Ethereum’s key indicator shifts to ‘predominance’- Is an ETH rally incoming?

- Ethereum 顯示出重新引領市場的跡象，市場週期指標轉為 “主導” 狀態。  
- 以太坊質押需求已達供應的 47%，機構對收益的需求強勁。  
- 然而，新的關税政策可能影響市場情緒，令以太坊短期內難以突破 3000 美元。

Amb Crypto

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IShares Ethereum Trust ETF

Bitwise Ethereum ETF

Franklin Ethereum ETF

Proshares Ether Strategy ETF

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Grayscale Ethereum Covered Call ETF

Galaxy Digital

Coinbase

VanEck Ethereum ETF

以太坊的關鍵指標轉向 “主導地位”——ETH 的上漲是否即將到來？