<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="960" height="540" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
<h3><strong>能源</strong></h3>
<p>昨天商品市場的大動作是天然氣，前一個月的亨利中心期貨上漲了 25%。這在週二也出現了類似的上漲。亨利中心本週迄今已上漲超過 50%，原因是美國出現寒冷天氣。這導致取暖需求激增，並引發了對德克薩斯州等南方地區可能出現供應中斷的擔憂。潛在影響是顯著的。我們只需回顧 2021 年 2 月的冬季風暴，當時美國天然氣產量創下歷史上最大月度下降，環比下降約 7%。</p>
<p>天然氣的上漲讓投機者感到意外。最新的持倉數據顯示，截至上週二，投機者在亨利中心持有 104,000 手的淨空頭，而總空頭則是自 2024 年 11 月以來的最高水平。因此，空頭回補加劇了本週的上漲力度。</p>
<p>然而，美國天然氣庫存仍然充足。最新數據顯示，截至 1 月 9 日，庫存為 3.19 萬億立方英尺，同比增長 1%，也比 5 年平均水平高出 3.4%。這表明此次上漲應該是短暫的，儘管很大程度上取決於風暴影響的嚴重程度。</p>
<p>美國市場的上漲對全球天然氣市場產生了連鎖反應。在歐洲，TTF 昨日收盤上漲超過 9%，短暫突破 40 歐元/兆瓦時，創下自 2025 年 6 月以來的最高水平。歐洲市場也面臨寒冷天氣和緊張的庫存，這支撐了價格。美國的供應擔憂只會加劇這些憂慮，因為可能會影響美國液化天然氣流向歐洲。考慮到歐盟天然氣庫存目前僅為 48% 滿，寒冷天氣的預測和供應中斷的風險表明，市場波動性在短期內可能仍將保持高位。</p>
<p>TTF 的最新持倉數據顯示，基金在市場上積極買入，在上一個報告周內，從 55.1 太瓦時的淨空頭轉變為 57.7 太瓦時的淨多頭。這一變化主要是由於空頭回補和新多頭進入市場的共同推動。</p>
<p>昨天油市相對平靜，ICE 布倫特原油收盤上漲不到 0.5%。美國與歐盟之間貿易緊張局勢的緩和在特朗普總統放棄對格林蘭徵收關税的威脅後為市場提供了一些支持。</p>
<p>國際能源署（IEA）每月油市報告中也有一些支持因素。該機構將 2026 年的石油需求增長預期從 86 萬桶/日上調至 93 萬桶/日，反映出經濟狀況的正常化和油價的降低。然而，IEA 仍預計市場在 2026 年前將保持大幅過剩。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>英國通脹預計在 4 月將降至 2%，儘管最近有所上升</p>
<p>外匯日報：不信任美元的拋售</p>
<p>利率快訊：收益率飆升，但水平遠未過高</p>

美國近 12 月期天然氣 ETF

2 倍做多彭博天然氣 ETF - ProShares

2 倍做空彭博天然氣 ETF - ProShares

美國天然氣 ETF

LNGZ

天然氣股指數 ETF - First Trust

<p>天然氣價格在美國寒冷天氣的影響下飆升了 25%，亨利中心期貨本週上漲超過 50%，主要由於取暖需求增加和供應擔憂。投機者措手不及，導致了空頭回補。美國天然氣庫存仍然充足，但根據風暴的嚴重程度，這種情況可能是短暫的。此次漲勢影響了全球市場，歐洲天然氣價格也隨之上漲。石油市場保持穩定，受到美歐貿易緊張局勢緩解和國際能源署（IEA）修訂的需求增長預期的支持，儘管預計到 2026 年將出現過剩</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/07/17/00/37/pump-jack-848300_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>圖片來源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Energy</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>能源</strong></h3>
</div><p>The big move in commodity markets yesterday was natural gas, with front-month Henry Hub futures surging 25%. This followed a similar move higher on Tuesday. Henry Hub has rallied by more than 50% so far this week amid a cold freeze across the US. This is leading to a surge in heating demand and raising concerns about potential supply disruptions amid freezing conditions as far south as Texas. The potential impact is significant. We just need to look back to the February 2021 winter storm, when US natural gas output saw its largest monthly decline on record, falling around 7% month-on-month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天商品市場的大動作是天然氣，前一個月的亨利中心期貨上漲了 25%。這在週二也出現了類似的上漲。亨利中心本週迄今已上漲超過 50%，原因是美國出現寒冷天氣。這導致取暖需求激增，並引發了對德克薩斯州等南方地區可能出現供應中斷的擔憂。潛在影響是顯著的。我們只需回顧 2021 年 2 月的冬季風暴，當時美國天然氣產量創下歷史上最大月度下降，環比下降約 7%。</p>
</div><p>The move in gas has caught speculators off guard. The most recent positioning data shows that speculators held a net short of 104k lots in Henry Hub as of last Tuesday, while the gross short stood at its largest since November 2024. So, short covering is adding to the move's intensity this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>天然氣的上漲讓投機者感到意外。最新的持倉數據顯示，截至上週二，投機者在亨利中心持有 104,000 手的淨空頭，而總空頭則是自 2024 年 11 月以來的最高水平。因此，空頭回補加劇了本週的上漲力度。</p>
</div><p>However, US natural gas storage is still comfortable. The latest data shows that storage stood at 3.19Tcf as of 9 January, 1% higher year-on-year and also 3.4% above the 5-year average. This suggests the move should be fairly short-lived, though much will depend on the severity of the storm's impact.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，美國天然氣庫存仍然充足。最新數據顯示，截至 1 月 9 日，庫存為 3.19 萬億立方英尺，同比增長 1%，也比 5 年平均水平高出 3.4%。這表明此次上漲應該是短暫的，儘管很大程度上取決於風暴影響的嚴重程度。</p>
</div><p>The rally in the US market has had a ripple effect across global gas markets. In Europe, TTF settled more than 9% higher yesterday and briefly broke above EUR40/MWh, its highest level since June 2025. The European market has been dealing with its own cold weather and tight storage, which supported prices. Supply concerns in the US will only add to these worries, given the potential for a disruption in US LNG flow to Europe. Given that EU gas storage is now just 48% full, forecasts of cold weather and the risk of supply disruptions suggest market volatility will likely remain elevated in the short term.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美國市場的上漲對全球天然氣市場產生了連鎖反應。在歐洲，TTF 昨日收盤上漲超過 9%，短暫突破 40 歐元/兆瓦時，創下自 2025 年 6 月以來的最高水平。歐洲市場也面臨寒冷天氣和緊張的庫存，這支撐了價格。美國的供應擔憂只會加劇這些憂慮，因為可能會影響美國液化天然氣流向歐洲。考慮到歐盟天然氣庫存目前僅為 48% 滿，寒冷天氣的預測和供應中斷的風險表明，市場波動性在短期內可能仍將保持高位。</p>
</div><p>The latest positioning data for TTF shows that funds have been aggressively buying the market, shifting from a net short of 55.1TWh to a net long of 57.7TWh over the last reporting week. This move was driven fairly equally by short covering and fresh longs entering the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TTF 的最新持倉數據顯示，基金在市場上積極買入，在上一個報告周內，從 55.1 太瓦時的淨空頭轉變為 57.7 太瓦時的淨多頭。這一變化主要是由於空頭回補和新多頭進入市場的共同推動。</p>
</div><p>Oil markets were calmer yesterday, with ICE Brent settling just shy of 0.5% higher. A de-escalation in trade tensions between the US and EU provided some support to the market after President Trump backed down on his threat of tariffs over Greenland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>昨天油市相對平靜，ICE 布倫特原油收盤上漲不到 0.5%。美國與歐盟之間貿易緊張局勢的緩和在特朗普總統放棄對格林蘭徵收關税的威脅後為市場提供了一些支持。</p>
</div><p>There were also some supportive factors in the IEA’s monthly oil market report. The agency revised its oil demand growth estimates for 2026 from 860k b/d to 930k b/d, reflecting more normalised economic conditions and lower oil prices. However, the IEA still expects the market to remain in large surplus through 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>國際能源署（IEA）每月油市報告中也有一些支持因素。該機構將 2026 年的石油需求增長預期從 86 萬桶/日上調至 93 萬桶/日，反映出經濟狀況的正常化和油價的降低。然而，IEA 仍預計市場在 2026 年前將保持大幅過剩。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多來自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>UK Inflation Likely To Fall To 2% In April Despite Latest Uptick</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英國通脹預計在 4 月將降至 2%，儘管最近有所上升</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: Not Trusting The Dollar Sell-Off</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外匯日報：不信任美元的拋售</p>
</div><p>Rates Spark: Yields Have Spiked, But Levels Are Far From Overly Elevated</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率快訊：收益率飆升，但水平遠未過高</p>
</div>

商品動態：美國天然氣因冰凍天氣而飆升